币圈价值日记

The trend structures of BTC and ETH are not conducive to short-term upward movements. If one insists on speculating, it is merely betting on a return to a range, with not much room for significant increases, which is unnecessary.

A safe opportunity arises when ETH reaches its previous low and when BTC refreshes its low. The point of view from yesterday is temporarily valid, and details will be updated later. For those who are here, give a thumbs up to gather some support!

Note: If you are operating based on the previous suggestions and using the 4HMA30 for long and short positions, this rebound expectation should not exceed 3%. It is advisable to take profits when available.

Looking at the spot supply situation of BTC, it can be seen from the spot premium index: the recent pullback is not as severe as in the first half of the year, it’s just that demand is too weak, leading to a low sentiment. However, from the degree of negative premium, most of the spot remains relatively stable, indicating that USD spot funds have not withdrawn on a large scale.

Either it won’t drop anymore, or a bigger drop is still ahead… This market is really tough lately!

Many people think that the primary market is high risk, waiting for the 'shanzhai season' of the secondary market with its continued decline, but this mindset is not suitable for the crypto space.

Currently, opportunities in the secondary market are scarce; patience is required for projects like hype and pengu, as the secondary market becomes worthwhile only during significant corrections of Bitcoin. The primary market, on the other hand, has daily opportunities, like wifout, which was mentioned in the morning fan group, rising from 1.2 million to 2.3 million, essentially doubling; USELESSANI is similar.

As long as you focus on hot topics and get in at the right time, the chances of making money are high.

Popular projects like ANI have lower risks compared to the secondary market, and both fartcoin and fartless are more stable than the secondary market. Moving trees may perish, but moving people can thrive; in the crypto space, one must be unbiased to earn!

#加密市场反弹 crypto space

Where should beginners in the cryptocurrency world focus their attention?

1. Only participate in simple market trends, do not engage in difficult modes; if you can't tell the difference, remember to only go long after a significant drop, and do not short;

2. Simplify your approach by eliminating unnecessary steps; keep only the buy and sell buttons, and ignore everything else, whether it’s long leverage or short leverage; don’t study or participate in them;

3. Ensure that after each sale, you do not FOMO buy again, and combine market analysis with your own trading review to gradually improve.

#加密项目

The probability of interest rate cuts surged in September, and ultimately we need to pay attention to whether this rate cut is a defensive cut or a recessionary cut. The economic data from the past few months will determine the trends of US stocks and cryptocurrencies for the next year. Currently, the latest non-farm data does not look very optimistic; defense = rise, recession = fall.

Whether it's spot or contract ETH inflows, the leading indicators are showing a clear gap, so the upward trend is quite strong.
Unfortunately, Bitcoin isn't keeping up, which is a bit concerning.

Currently, the net accumulated funds for ETH contracts have reached 500 million,
The upward trend is basically established, as long as BTC doesn't cause any trouble.

This V-shaped trend indicates that the market's funds are too eager and urgently need a new grand narrative to support it. The consensus among Wall Street institutions is to enhance and strengthen ETH's market value.

This round of pullback seems to have ended, and the market is regaining upward momentum. There's no need to delve into the reasons for the decline; last week's data was merely a tool used by the manipulators. Let the altcoins pull back further to wash out more people. ETH has risen so much in one go; not pulling back would actually be unhealthy.

You've only heard about manipulators using good news to offload their holdings; have you heard about them using "bad news" to do the same? Right?

Manipulators can use pullbacks to shake off weak hands, and we can also use pullbacks to observe the manipulators. For those altcoins that break below key support levels during this pullback, there's no need to consider them further. The ones that can quickly and strongly break through the 7.21 high point afterwards will sufficiently prove the willpower of the manipulators. All of these are worth paying close attention to.

#币圈

The little penguin can receive more attention, or you can enter the market with spot or contract trading at low leverage during dips, it's quite strong!

There have also been large orders buying in, and based on this momentum, it's not impossible for $pengu to reach a new high or surpass its historical high again!

There is a reason why things are expensive, don’t be greedy for cheap, and don’t be afraid of high prices!

Market sentiment on Sunday is significantly better than on Saturday, BTC does not have systemic risk, the core remains the monetary policy game between Trump and Powell. Currently, Trump has secured three committee votes, coupled with Kugler's resignation and Williams' defection, the expectation for a rate cut in September has risen to 80%.

From the data perspective, inflation still has pressure but signs of recession have not emerged, the unemployment rate remains below the warning line, tariff risks are temporarily alleviated, and market sentiment is stabilizing. The decline in Bitcoin turnover rate indicates that panic has not persisted, and the follow-up will still depend on the movements of the Federal Reserve and Trump's camp.

#BTC走势分析

BTC ETF had a net outflow of about 812M yesterday, and ETH ETF had a net outflow of 152M, both setting recent records for net outflows.

However, it seems that with a net outflow of 800 million, BTC ETF is still hovering around 115K, which is really strong.

This time ETH was just shy of 4,000, seemingly similar to the last round, just missing 3000 points, the fate of the aunt.
#以太坊十周年

Endless copying of the bottom, volume increase in decline, no volume in rise, boiling frogs in warm water

The 4-hour chart of Bitcoin and Ethereum is all down, without a single solid bullish bar; these past two days I've almost forgotten what a bullish bar looks like. It's not that easy to pull back after a volume increase in decline.

Let's not even talk about the issue of capital size; just the market sentiment alone makes it risky for traders to bet against the trend. Don't always try to touch the top or bottom; it feels good but eventually you'll get stuck at some point.

#加密市场回调

The pump's buyback scared me into closing my short position (I rarely look at it, but I know this is trash).

So a 100% buyback is really unexpected, I didn’t dare to bet, but I didn’t expect it to be a buyback in just one day???

I transferred some money to the chain, pretended to buy, and then quickly sold off. Compared to that time, it had already dropped a lot, but unfortunately, I didn’t open a short position.

I feel that in the eyes of the pump team, all meme players are idiots, without exception.

In every bull market, 95% of people go from bull to bear, either going to zero or deeply trapped, without needing to experience a bear market. The bull market is about cutting retail investors; only 1% of people make a profit! This market hasn't even reached the middle yet; I see many people losing a lot during this time. I wonder if you are among them?

The needle has been inserted, and the giant whale has also been liquidated. Many people will likely cry after waking up today. We need to repeatedly insert needles every day, so be cautious in August! Btc also falsely broke the previous low of 1,147,000. It should rebound during the day in the short term, and it won't drop again; it just depends on the strength of the rebound. If the strength is not very strong, it will still go down.

#BTC走势分析

How long can MEME stagnate before it explodes?

If we start from the mindset of the market maker

The prerequisites for the market maker to operate a target are:

1. The ice and fire of the market
2. Whether there are many retail investors on board
3. Whether they can control their chips
4. Whether there are points to take advantage of
5. Whether the narrative can attract more retail investors

If the market is in an icy state, then the washout will take even longer

#以太坊十周年

The main problem for many people losing their positions is large positions and narrow stop losses. The fluctuations are meant to eliminate the positions of this part of the people.

You either take a light position with a wide stop loss and ambush for a breakout, unafraid of spikes, or wait for an effective breakout at 120,000 and then take a heavy position with a narrow stop loss to chase.

#以太坊十周年