币圈价值日记

支撑较强，暂无深跌。
93800以下的多单尝试拿住一部分、保本损。
如果大A的部分游资今晚开始进场，五一假期可能有拉盘行情，然后假期最后一天晚上在人们归途中趁人困马乏时偷袭砸盘，这刚好为2天后的美联储议息会议作铺垫，一般会前24小时内开始收敛，主力提前离场观望。 ​​​BTC ​​​

SUI, ENA, OMNI, and OP welcome a large unlock
From May to June, there are many conferences on AI
MicroStrategy purchased $1.4 billion in BTC last week, and the net inflow of Bitcoin ETFs in the US reached $2.6 billion in a week

【Popular Targets】
• AI Sector: $Virtual $AI16Z surged

【Trend Analysis】
• Tether has issued another 1 billion USDT, with funds continuously flowing into BTC, a $100,000 threshold is expected
• The Federal Reserve will announce interest rates on May 8, with rate cut expectations laid out in May, and Q3-Q4 will welcome favorable policies such as tax cuts
• AI and Meme continue to be the main investment lines currently

（Market Interpretation）
BTC has been strongly consolidating for a week, unable to short down, unable to long up, with a pressure range between $96,000 to $100,000 currently undergoing consolidation with sideways declines, which is beneficial for the market to digest sell pressure and build energy for subsequent breakthroughs, waiting for the upper range of $96,000—$97,000 to short, stop loss at $98,000, $ETH is currently in an upward channel, with the upper edge of the channel at $1,830~$1,850, breaking above $1,850 is needed to continue looking at the upper edge of $1,957, $1,830, and $1,850 for shorting, stop loss at $1,870, all can only short in the short term

涨了三周了，从7.45W一路到了9.57W，第一预测9W以上也已经到了，你不可能让人家一直涨，时间周期不允许，这样后面也没办法玩了，这个位置该休息一下

短期看有没有机会再插一下9W这个位置硬不硬，不硬重新吸筹。

记住大方向不会变，还没结束

CETUS has been doing really well
I missed the first opportunity this morning, otherwise it would have been 20 points
Even getting on the second segment gave me over 10%+
Since I started using Binance, it hasn't really gone up
It must be brewing for a big move
SUI will have a large unlock this week
If it doesn't rally, it won't sell
So its first ecosystem, cetus, definitely still needs to rally

PEPE 是本周表现最佳的加密货币之一。该资产在过去七天上涨了 22.50%。该 币的交易价格最高达到 0.0000089904美元。此前，该加密货币在过去 24 小时内上涨了近 6%。

四月对 PEPE 和其他市场来说都是艰难的一个月。该资产的跌幅大于涨幅。该币的月度价格变化为正 1.90%。这一低迷导致该资产的交易价格较其历史最高价下跌了 68%。PEPE 的价格在 2024 年 12 月曾达到 0.00002825 美元的峰值。

尽管四月份表现平平，但PEPE可能在五月份迎来重大转折。PEPE的价值将上涨，平均价格可能达到 0.00003485 美元。此外，价格波动范围可能在 0.00002720 美元至 0.00004159 美元之间。

反弹不是反转
1.不是很看好今年整体的市场，狂暴大牛市很难有(阶段性反弹行情会有)

2.大部分90%的山寨几乎不太可能回到24年初的高点(上方套牢盘太多)

3.未来散户寸步难行，专业交易员越来越多(不更新迭代，会越亏越多)

Sharing some thoughts on trading emotions:

Emotions are important in trading, but their significance depends on what stage you are in.

For trading beginners, emotions hold no value. All attention should be focused on refining an executable mechanical strategy—clear rules, high-frequency feedback, and absolute discipline. At this stage, feelings only serve as distractions.

In the 'overtrading' stage, emotional issues begin to become deadly. People at this stage have started to familiarize themselves with market rules but often get led by emotions during profit and loss fluctuations. Once emotions spiral out of control, the brain's hormone levels become chaotic, making it impossible to analyze calmly or capture the most critical details in trading progress.

For seasoned traders, emotions are no longer the enemy. They become part of the strategy and an element of risk control; at this point, emotions are not suppressed but used as tools that go with the flow.

To go back to the beginning, if someone is at the initial stage of trading and repeatedly emphasizes 'emotional management,' it usually indicates one thing: they have neither much money nor a well-formed strategy.

我们经历了最坏的时候，目前宏观环境已恢复，等市场持续调整彻底恢复信心之后，行情就会开始从反弹变成反转。如果5月不降息，6月差不多要降息，可配合相关政策出台，行情将会一触即发，所以整个5、6月就是逢低布局的好时机。

I have a chart for next week that does not constitute investment advice.

The highs were cleared, forming new highs,

then on Monday the highs from last week were cleared,

returning to the weekly range, showing a small level choch.

This in our SMC circle is called the holiday model.

Monday usually establishes new range highs and lows liquidity.

A neutral cryptocurrency RWA sector on ONDO, I have never touched this currency because it really does not meet the conditions and requirements. Now that these conditions are met, it basically has medium-term potential and a future. Otherwise, it wouldn't have been launched on a certain platform two weeks ago; no profit, no early rise.

When looking at things, you must take a dialectical approach. When the conditions are met, it is absolutely not a reason to buy just because it looks cheap from a drop from the top. Absolutely not. No cryptocurrency will be so high that you cannot buy it, such as BTC;

Similarly, it cannot be so low that you cannot sell it, for example, meme coins at 0.00000, countless zeros. These are all created by the market to satisfy people's preferences; your preferences are your trap.

To identify a true memecoin with explosive potential, narrative judgment basically requires you to perfectly combine these 3 elements. By following this simple method, you can distinguish between regularly appearing 'shitcoins' and true narrative frontrunners, thereby easily achieving A7 level wealth growth.