币圈价值日记

Dogecoin (DOGE) has recently attracted attention with its price movement closely resembling the pattern before the explosive surge in early 2021, igniting market expectations for a new round of increases. Currently, Dogecoin is retesting a key support level of $0.168, which had previously become the market bottom in mid-April, successfully buffering a 35% drop since the mid-May peak.
Technical aspect: Classic reversal pattern emerging.

An anonymous analyst pointed out that Dogecoin is forming a 'double bottom' pattern on the 4-hour chart, which is a classic bullish reversal signal. Historically, similar patterns often indicate a transition from calm consolidation to explosive upward movement, with the most famous example being Dogecoin's 15-fold surge in 2021. The analyst particularly emphasized the support level of $0.168, believing this will be the starting point for a rebound that could push Dogecoin above $0.25.

On June 21, Dogecoin's price slightly rose to $0.17, with an increase of about 1.0% within 24 hours. However, the trading atmosphere this week has been sluggish, with Dogecoin's price falling nearly 3% in the past seven days. According to data, trading volume has decreased by 30% to about $678 million, with investors generally adopting a cautious attitude.
Declining trading volume hides risks
On-chain data indicates that daily trading volume has plummeted by 34%, reflecting reduced market participation. Experts point out that a decrease in trading volume may lead to increased price volatility, as even small trades could trigger significant price swings.

Triangle pattern indicates a breakout

Bitcoin had little change last night due to the US stock market being closed. Currently, the premium on CB has come out again, and American buying remains strong. The key to watch on the 4-hour level is the position at 103,000. If this level is broken, it may need to re-verify the support position around 100,000. In the current market, it is very difficult to predict the short term due to uncertainties in the Middle East and tariffs, so contract users should pay attention to risks. For Bitcoin spot users, the short-term trend is not important; what matters is that the Bitcoin trend is not over, and the second half of the year still looks at the range of 15-20. Therefore, it's more important to remain calm and purchase some leading projects during this time. For meme concepts, focus more on Base ETH, as foreigners have shifted to these two chains, while the Solana chain is too weak and cannot compete.

Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen a net inflow for 8 consecutive days, with a net inflow of $390 million yesterday, indicating continuous buying by institutions. BTC may be approaching a new high. The US Senate passed the GENIUS Act (Stablecoin Innovation Act), which is pending review by the House of Representatives, but the probability of passage is high. There are commitments to establish a stablecoin regulatory framework by August 2025, increasing the likelihood of the bill's implementation. If the bill passes, BTC prices could reach $126,000.
Currently, the cryptocurrency market is fluctuating and accumulating positions. The geopolitical situation is unstable, the Federal Reserve has not lowered interest rates, and the war impact has generally led to a downturn in altcoins. The big players are not pushing the market. Most retail investors are heavily invested in altcoins and are stuck, waiting for the altcoin season! The future market may evolve into a personal showcase for BTC! Therefore, if conditions allow, try to accumulate as much BTC as possible. For long-term players, the essence of the cryptocurrency market is to earn BTC.

Despite Dogecoin (DOGE) prices remaining sluggish recently, hovering around $0.16, on-chain data shows that whales have accumulated over 1 billion DOGE in the past 30 days, sparking enthusiastic discussion about the potential for a price surge.

Surge in whale activity, bullish signal

According to well-known cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez, the accumulation behavior of whales indicates that market interest in this meme coin is reviving. He stated on social media: "In the past month, whales have cumulatively bought over 1 billion DOGE!"

Notably, April 15 became a peak for purchases, with over 800 million DOGE being bought in just 48 hours, marking the largest accumulation since January 19 (when 1.83 billion DOGE were purchased in 48 hours). This indicates that institutions or high-net-worth investors may be repositioning themselves in Dogecoin.

The market is still dominated by bears, with Bitcoin currently priced around $104,600, a fluctuation of $2,000 could liquidate $1.47 billion in shorts (rising to $106,600) or $1.08 billion in longs (falling to $102,600); yesterday, Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs saw net outflows of $214 million and $5.4 million, respectively; the short-term outlook is bearish, influenced by the Middle East situation and US stock market drag. Personally, I suggest focusing on short-term trades due to multiple uncontrollable factors, and also keep an eye on the US interest rate decision and Powell's speech at 2 AM tonight; the market generally believes there will not be a rate cut this month, so pay close attention then.

Bitcoin experienced a wave of panic selling this morning due to the ongoing tensions in the Middle East, but the overall impact is limited, and the decline may be a buildup for a larger rise. Altcoins have performed poorly, influenced by the 'altcoin season' in the US stock market; it is recommended to pay attention to listed companies that link stocks and cryptocurrencies in the US market.
Every pullback in Bitcoin is a buying opportunity. With the expectation of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year and an optimistic outlook on stablecoin legislation, a valuation of $150,000 seems conservative. Ethereum shows a standard oscillation pattern on the 4-hour chart, with the upper bound around $2750 and the lower bound around $2400. Breaking through this range will clarify the direction, and ETH is expected to break 3000 points.