Mindy Burrington jhSM

The plan is to arbitrage a newly issued token through a decentralized exchange (DEX) by taking advantage of its price differences across different chains. However, due to severe network congestion at that time, Gas fees surged, causing the transaction to be delayed. By the time I manually adjusted the Gas limit, the price difference had already disappeared, and ultimately, this transaction could not be executed, resulting in missed expected profits.

**Lessons and Reflections**:
1. **Underestimating Network Conditions**: Failing to monitor on-chain congestion in advance led to transaction delays.
2. **Insufficient Gas Fee Budget**: A fixed Gas price lacks flexibility in a highly volatile environment.
3. **Sensitivity of Arbitrage Timing**: Strategies relying on quick execution must consider execution risks.

**Future Adjustments**:
- Use Gas tracking tools to adjust fees in real-time, or set dynamic Gas fee strategies.
- For high-frequency arbitrage trades, prioritize operating on Layer 2 or during low congestion periods.
- Reserve more buffer funds to cope with unexpected costs and diversify into multiple trading pairs to reduce reliance on a single opportunity.

This experience made me realize that in the crypto market, technical details and real-time adaptability are as important as investment judgment.57413796306#美国加征关税

#交易经验 ** I had planned to chase a stock after breaking through a key resistance level, but after entering, the price quickly retraced and triggered my stop loss, resulting in a loss.

**Reasons for not following the plan:**
1. **Ignoring market conditions**: At that time, the market was in a consolidation phase, making the reliability of the breakout low, but I failed to analyze the overall trend.
2. **Over-reliance on a single signal**: Entered based solely on technical patterns without verifying auxiliary signals such as volume or indicator divergence.
3. **Rigid stop loss setting**: Mechanically used a fixed percentage for stop loss without considering the actual position of support levels, leading to an early exit.

**Lessons learned:**
- **Multi-dimensional validation**: Need to combine trend, volume, market sentiment, and other factors for comprehensive judgment, avoiding decisions based on a single signal.
- **Dynamic stop loss**: Adjust stop loss levels based on key support/resistance to reduce ineffective stop losses.
- **Patiently wait for confirmation**: Observe whether the pullback stabilizes after a breakout, avoiding blind chasing.

**Future strategy adjustments:**
1. **Increase filtering criteria**: Only enter during clear trends and significant volume breakouts.
2. **Build positions in batches**: Start with a light position for trial, then increase after confirmation to reduce trial and error costs.
3. **Review and optimize**: Analyze the commonalities of similar failed cases to improve the adaptability of the trading system. #交易故事

Impact Forecast of China-U.S. Trade Negotiation Progress on Global Markets and Trade Policies**

#### **1. Impact on Global Markets**
- **Short-term Optimism**: If the joint statement on May 12 sends clear signals of reconciliation (such as tariff reductions and relaxed technology export restrictions), global risk assets (U.S. stocks, Hong Kong stocks, Renminbi, commodities) may experience a rebound.
- **Benefiting Sectors**: Technology (semiconductors, consumer electronics), shipping, new energy (electric vehicles, photovoltaics), and commodities (copper, crude oil) may lead the gains, as China and the U.S. are the largest demand sources globally.
- **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: If the U.S. reduces tariff threats against China, the CNY may appreciate to below 7.0, alleviating capital outflow pressures.
- **Long-term Uncertainty**: Even if a new consultation mechanism is established, the U.S. “small courtyard high wall” technology blockade against China (such as AI chips, quantum computing) is difficult to reverse, and the market may maintain structural differentiation.

#### **2. Potential Impact on Global Trade Policies**
- **Acceleration of WTO Reform**: If China and the U.S. coordinate their positions (such as subsidy rules, dispute resolution mechanisms), it may promote the long-stalled reform of the multilateral trading system, benefiting emerging markets.
- **Slowdown of Supply Chain Restructuring**: If tariff barriers are lowered, the urgency for companies to engage in “friend-shoring” (such as Apple's supply chain moving to India) will decrease, but the “China +1” strategy will still continue. 81618962262

#新闻交易 Impact of News on Trading**: In January 2024, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) officially approved the first Bitcoin spot ETFs. This significant regulatory breakthrough was widely reported by mainstream media and marked a substantial lowering of the barrier for institutional funds to enter the cryptocurrency market.

**Reaction Speed**: I acted quickly within 15 minutes of the news release. The SEC's official statement was published at 9:30 AM ET, and Bitcoin's price increased by 8% within 10 minutes. I captured the unusual movement through preset price alerts on the exchange and immediately analyzed the long-term liquidity impact of the ETF, deciding to increase my position when it retraced to $42,000.

**Impact on Trading**: This news completely reversed market sentiment. Previously, the market had been volatile due to the SEC's delay in approval, but after the official approval, Bitcoin surged more than 20% that day, and my long position was closed for profit within 48 hours. The key point was to identify the rhythm of "buy the expectation, sell the fact"—some investors took profits after the ETF listing, so I set a take-profit point at $50,000, which perfectly avoided the subsequent 10% technical correction. #交易故事

#策略交易 I recently used the **moving average crossover strategy** to make a trade on EUR/USD. When the 5-day moving average crosses above the 20-day moving average, I consider it a buy signal, entering around 1.1200, with a stop loss set at 1.1150 and a target of 1.1300. The price initially rose as expected to 1.1250 but then reversed due to unexpected hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve, triggering my stop loss.

The outcome was not as expected, mainly due to unexpected events disrupting the trend. Upon reviewing, I realized the need to combine **fundamental news calendar** to filter signals and avoid relying solely on technical entry before major risk events. Next time I will adjust my strategy: **① Avoid high volatility event windows; ② Add RSI overbought/oversold conditions**, to avoid chasing positions at extreme levels. Despite the loss, strictly executing the stop loss protected my capital, and future strategy optimization will focus more on the resonance of “technical + fundamental.” #交易故事

#ETH突破2500 #ETH **Ethereum Breaks Through $2500: Short-Term Pullback or Bull Market Starting Point?**

Ethereum has finally ended months of consolidation, strongly breaking through $2500. Although it briefly fell back to the $2470-2480 range, market sentiment has clearly warmed up. Bulls believe that the rising expectations for ETFs, the explosion of Layer 2 ecosystems, and the recovery of DeFi TVL all indicate that ETH may enter a new round of upward cycle. On the other hand, bears emphasize that $2500 is a historically strong resistance level, and there may be profit-taking in the short term, or even a pullback to the $2300-2400 support range.

From a technical perspective, if ETH can hold above $2450, it is expected to challenge $2600 or even $3000; however, if it falls below $2400, it may enter a consolidation mode again. The short-term trend may depend on BTC's movement and macro market sentiment.

Mutual Points

Mutual

The most thrilling altcoin trade this week comes from extreme swing trading of Dogwifhat (WIF) with the ID #交易故事 #山寨季何时到来 . In the early morning of Tuesday, WIF consolidated around $3.2, and on-chain data showed that a certain whale address continuously accumulated $12 million worth of WIF on Binance spot, while the perpetual contract funding rate plummeted to -0.35%, forming a rare 'spot accumulation + futures liquidation' divergence signal. I quickly launched a three-stage strategy:

1. **Technical Breakthrough**: Observing the terminal of a triangular convergence on the 4-hour chart, I placed a buy order immediately after breaking through $3.28, concurrently opening an equal-sized short position on Bybit to hedge (utilizing the price difference between Binance/Bybit for arbitrage).
2. **Sentiment Trigger**: When WIF surged to $3.5, I detected a rumor from Twitter KOL @WifHunter about 'CEX listing countdown', and I immediately closed 50% of my long position, then placed a short order at $3.48, taking advantage of FOMO sentiment for a minor pullback.
3. **On-Chain Verification**: After discovering that the founding team's wallet deposited 500,000 WIF to Binance, I decisively took profit on the entire position at $3.3, ultimately achieving a 23% compound return within 36 hours.

The uniqueness of this battle lies in breaking down meme coin trading into a precise mathematical game: using TradingView's order flow tool to capture the accumulation traces of the main force, predicting the selling pressure timing through Nansen's Smart Money tracking module, and even utilizing Glassnode's MVRV indicator to verify the bubble's critical point. While 99% of market players are still debating the popularity of the 'doge cap chart' meme, this 'data-driven + hedging arbitrage' model has quietly harvested liquidity premiums.

In attributing success, the strategy's rigor accounts for 70% (hedging positions offset Beta risk), the unique volatility premium of altcoins accounts for 25%, and luck is only 5% (the team did not choose to dump during the surge). In the future, this framework will be reused in the new coin mining section on Binance, but an AI sentiment analysis module will be introduced to capture Telegram group voting data in real-time as a contrarian indicator.

#交易故事 #本周高光时刻 accidentally stumbled into the MEME frenzy on Binance: a stroke of luck from an unintentional action

The dramatic trade stemmed from a completely unplanned "slip of the hand". Late at night, I intended to place an order at $0.0000085 to bottom out Pepe (PEPE) on the Binance spot market, but mistakenly triggered a market buy for BONK/USDT while switching trading pairs, instantly executing a $20,000 position in BONK at $0.0000231. Even more absurdly, five minutes later, the Solana ecosystem suddenly surged due to the announcement of Jupiter airdrop details, and this MEME coin, which I hadn’t even checked the official website for, skyrocketed to $0.0000417 within an hour.

The absurdity of this trade lies in the complete lack of strategic support: no stop-loss set (I completely forgot about my position), didn’t look at the K-line (didn’t even know whether BONK was a dog coin or a frog coin), and completely ignored the fundamentals (still don’t understand the project vision to this day). Purely due to an interface operational error combined with a market sentiment explosion, I unexpectedly captured a 79.6% profit. I was awakened by a profit alert at 2 AM, staring at the green numbers on my position page for a full three minutes.

Luck accounted for as much as 85% of the success factors (misclick + just happened to catch the MEME sector rotation), timing accounted for 10% (hitting the capital overflow effect during the SOL ecosystem news vacuum), and strategy was purely negative (if chaos can be considered a strategy). I will never replicate this "blind trading method" in the future, but I plan to reserve 5% of my position in the Binance spot mining pool to focus on newly listed MEME coins—after all, in the crypto world, occasionally letting Lady Luck decide the keyboard direction might bring more surprises than excessive rationality.

At three o'clock in the morning, the computer screen flickered with a soft glow. Lin Shen refreshed the trading page for the 17th time, as the Bitcoin candlestick chart shook violently like a roller coaster. He licked his cracked lips, his finger trembling slightly above the confirm button for 10x leverage.

Three days ago, he was just a nine-to-five programmer until he heard at a class reunion that Zhou Ming had bought a riverside apartment in cash after six months of trading cryptocurrencies. At this moment, his Huobi account held a freshly deposited 50,000 yuan, money that was originally meant for a diamond ring for his fiancée.

"BTC breaks 68,000!" A bold red announcement suddenly popped up in the Telegram group. Lin Shen pressed the mouse hard, and the 5x leverage long position was executed instantly. The candlestick chart surged up like a wild horse, and his account balance jumped every second; three hours later, his profit had already exceeded half a month's salary.

On the seventh day, he quit his job. The rental apartment was filled with Red Bull cans, and inspirational quotes from 'The Wolf of Wall Street' were posted on the wall. When his weekly earnings exceeded 80%, he adjusted the leverage to a reckless 125x and even secretly transferred out 300,000 yuan meant for the down payment.

Until that stormy night, when the central bank's announcement about cleaning up virtual currency trading fell into the crypto sphere like a meteor. Lin Shen watched helplessly as BTC plummeted 15% within ten minutes, with margin call alerts popping up continuously. He frantically recharged his account, maxing out six credit cards, but each time he tried to add more funds, it felt like pouring water into a leaking boat.

"Your account has triggered automatic liquidation; remaining margin: 2.00 USDT." When this gray text appeared, the noise of the morning rush hour came from outside. Lin Shen stared at that glaring number, suddenly recalling what his fiancée had said three months ago when she left: "There’s a green light in your eyes, like a gambler who has lost everything."

The exchange's sunrise effect lit up on time, the pink-purple gradient background beautiful yet ironic. He trembled as he transferred the last 2 USDT into his wallet, the transaction fee exactly deducted 1.8. Now there quietly lay 0.2 USDT, just enough to buy a nearly expired rice ball at the convenience store.

The most successful trade this week came from short-term swing trading of Solana (SOL). In the early hours of Wednesday, when SOL plunged from $146 to $138 due to market panic, I noticed unusual on-chain data: the 1-hour EMA55 moving average continued to rise, the RSI indicator was oversold at 28, and Jito, a leading DeFi project in the Solana ecosystem, announced the launch of its V2 upgrade. After confirming that $138 was the weekly support level, I decisively placed an order to enter at $138.5, setting a 1% trailing stop loss.

The uniqueness of this trade lies in the triple verification mechanism: first, identifying the trend through the EMA channel on TradingView; second, confirming support strength using CoinGlass's liquidation heatmap; and finally, filtering market noise with project fundamental news. When the price rebounded and broke through $143, I gradually closed my position, ultimately exiting at $145.3 and capturing a 4.9% intraday swing profit.

Among the factors for success, strategy execution accounted for 60% (strictly following the multi-indicator resonance principle), timing accounted for 30% (seizing the window of market overreaction), and luck only accounted for 10% (the project team happened to release positive news). In the future, I will continue to optimize this "technical analysis + on-chain data + fundamentals" three-dimensional trading framework, but I will incorporate a volatility index (Dvol) filtering mechanism to avoid trading during low liquidity periods. This practical experience validated the advantages of systematic trading—when the market is driven by emotions, discipline is the true source of alpha.

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