MARKETS OBSERVATORY

The phrase "NEVER SELL YOUR BITCOINS" should be replaced with "ALWAYS INCREASE YOUR BITCOIN RESERVE".

What is your opinion?

$BTC

On May 6, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) showed relatively stable price performance, hovering around the mark of $94,000.
Here are the key points regarding Bitcoin's performance on this day:
* Price: Bitcoin traded between $93,800 and $94,800 throughout the day, with modest intraday fluctuations.
* Stability after surge: The price appears to have entered a consolidation phase following a notable surge that occurred on April 23.
* Trading volume: There was a slowdown in trading activity compared to the previous week, indicating a "breathing" phase of the market.
* Technical analysis:
* Technical analysts point to key resistance levels between $99,000 and $102,500.
* Key support levels are around $91,700 and $82,800.
* The recent breakout of resistance at $88,745 suggests a continued bullish inclination, although momentum seems to be waning in the short term.
* The 21-period moving average is around $91,600, seen as a potential retest target.
* Market sentiment: Overall sentiment remains favorable, supported by investor interest, although there is short-term caution due to slowing momentum.
* Comparison with gold: Bitcoin did not follow gold's surge, raising discussions about its correlation amid current macroeconomic conditions.
* Forecasts: If Bitcoin remains above $91,700, the next bullish targets may be between $97,920 and $109,354 (all-time high).
In summary, Bitcoin demonstrated stability on May 6, 2025, after a period of strong rise, with the market awaiting new catalysts and economic developments to determine the next price direction.
$BTC

#USHouseMarketStructureDraft
Discussions in the U.S. Senate about cryptocurrencies are focused on the GENIUS Act, which seeks to regulate stablecoins. Despite initial bipartisan support, Democrats are withdrawing their backing due to concerns over money laundering, national security, and potential conflicts of interest related to the Trump family. A crucial vote will take place soon, while other developments include blocking a hearing in the House and a roundtable by Bernie Sanders to discuss the risks of the bill. There is also a separate proposal to recognize Bitcoin as a national strategic asset. The future of cryptocurrency regulation in the U.S. remains uncertain in light of these divisions.

#FOMCMeeting

Market expectations for the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting on May 7, 2025, are that interest rates will remain unchanged in the range of 4.25% to 4.50%. This expectation is reinforced by the 97% probability indicated by federal funds futures contracts.
Despite President Trump's pressure for rate cuts, the consensus is that the Fed will maintain caution, prioritizing the fight against inflation, which remains above the 2% target. The recent slowdown in GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025 is seen as influenced by an increase in imports ahead of potential tariffs, rather than a fundamental deterioration of the economy.
Market focus will be on the FOMC statement and President Powell's press conference, seeking signs about the future of monetary policy and the timing of potential rate cuts later this year. Although initial expectations pointed to multiple cuts in 2025, the market has gradually adjusted these expectations, with a higher probability of a first cut at the July meeting.
Uncertainty regarding the impact of Trump's tariffs on the economy and inflation adds complexity to the scenario, with some analysts suggesting that cuts may take longer to occur, depending on the evolution of economic data. The Fed emphasizes that its decisions will be based on concrete economic data, rather than projections or sentiment indicators.

#USStablecoinBill
The recent discussions in the U.S. Senate regarding the stablecoin law revolve around the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act. This bipartisan bill aims to create a federal regulatory framework for payment stablecoins.
Key points of discussion:
* Progress and obstacles: The GENIUS Act advanced in the Senate Banking Committee with bipartisan support in March. However, recently, a group of Democrats who initially supported the legislation expressed concerns and withdrew their support for the current version.
* Major Democratic concerns: The main objections raised by these Democrats include the need for stronger provisions regarding:
* Money laundering
* Foreign issuers
* National security
* Preservation of the safety and soundness of the financial system
* Accountability for those who do not comply with the law.
* Ongoing negotiations: Republican and Democratic leaders indicate that negotiations are underway to try to reach an agreement on the necessary changes to gain sufficient bipartisan support for Senate approval.
* Future voting: There is an expectation of a procedural vote in the Senate on the bill this week, which will require 60 votes to advance. Given the current lack of support from some Democrats, the outcome is uncertain.
* Political context: The discussions are also being influenced by external events, such as the recent announcement of a stablecoin project (USD1) backed by the Trump family, raising concerns about potential conflicts of interest and corruption.
* Objectives of the law: The overall goal of the GENIUS Act is to establish a clear and growth-friendly regulatory framework to modernize payment systems, protect consumers, ensure financial stability, and assert the dominance of the U.S. dollar. This includes reserve requirements for stablecoins, redemption procedures, and transparency requirements.

#MarketPullback
A market pullback is a temporary decline in the price of an asset or the market in general after a period of upward trend. It is considered a normal and healthy event in market cycles, representing a pause or consolidation before a potential resumption of the main trend.
Key characteristics:
* Temporary: Unlike a trend reversal, a pullback is short-lived.
* Within an uptrend: Occurs after a period of rising prices.
* Magnitude: Typically smaller than a correction (decline of 10% to 20%) or a bear market (decline of 20% or more). Some investors consider a decline of 5% to 10% as a pullback.
* Causes: Can be caused by profit-taking, short-term negative news, technical factors, or changes in investor sentiment.
Importance:
* Buying opportunity: Pullbacks can offer investors the chance to buy quality assets at lower prices, taking advantage of the underlying uptrend.
* Reassessment: Allow the market to reassess prices and fundamentals after a period of strong appreciation.
* Part of the cycle: Are considered a natural and expected part of how financial markets operate.
Example:
Imagine a stock that has been steadily rising over the past few weeks. Suddenly, due to slightly negative news about the sector it operates in, the stock price drops 7% in a few days. If the overall uptrend remains intact and the stock price rises again after this decline period, that would have been a pullback.
In summary, a market pullback is a transient price drop in a rising market, offering potential buying opportunities and being a common component of market dynamics.

#AirdropStepByStep Cryptocurrency airdrops are a marketing strategy where projects distribute their coins for free to users' wallets to increase visibility and adoption. To participate, users typically need to meet criteria such as holding other cryptocurrencies, following the project's social media, or completing simple tasks. The process involves announcing the airdrop, meeting the eligibility criteria, providing the wallet address, and eventually completing tasks. After verification, the tokens are distributed and can be used within the project's ecosystem or traded. It is crucial to be cautious of scams and verify the legitimacy of airdrops, as they should never ask for confidential information or payments.

#EUPrivacyCoinBan
The new anti-money laundering law of the European Union (EU) has significant implications for the cryptocurrency sector. The AML/CFT reform package aims to extend existing regulations to more comprehensively cover cryptocurrency service providers (CASPs) and transactions involving cryptocurrencies.

* Extension of AML/CFT obligations: The new rules extend customer due diligence (CDD), transaction monitoring, and reporting of suspicious activities obligations to CASPs, aligning them more closely with traditional financial institutions.

* Funds Transfer Regulation (TFR): This regulation, part of the AML/CFT package, ensures the traceability of cryptocurrency transfers, requiring CASPs to collect and provide information about the sender and the beneficiary, regardless of the transaction value. This aims to combat anonymous transactions, although peer-to-peer (P2P) transfers between unhosted wallets are exempt.

* End of anonymity for hosted wallets: The EU seeks to ban anonymous cryptocurrency transactions for hosted wallets offered by external service providers, making it more difficult to use cryptocurrencies for illicit purposes.

* Regulation of the Cryptocurrency Market (MiCA): Although it is separate legislation, MiCA complements the AML/CFT package by establishing a regulatory framework for the issuance and trading of cryptocurrencies, as well as for CASPs, including licensing and oversight requirements.

* Supervision by AMLA: The new Anti-Money Laundering and Counter-Terrorism Financing Authority (AMLA) will have a supervisory role, including over high-risk entities in the cryptocurrency sector, ensuring a more consistent application of the rules.

* Limit for occasional transactions: Occasional transactions involving cryptocurrencies with a value equal to or greater than €1,000 will be subject to due diligence measures.

#DigitalAssetBill Currently, in the USA, there is no comprehensive federal law regarding digital assets. The regulatory landscape is fragmented, with various proposed laws being discussed in Congress, seeking to bring clarity on the definition, classification, and regulatory jurisdiction (mainly between SEC and CFTC) of these assets. There is a focus on consumer and investor protection, compliance obligations (AML/CFT), and the regulation of stablecoins. Proposals such as FIT21 (approved in the House) and the GENIUS Act (with expedited voting in the Senate) demonstrate the effort to create a federal legal framework, but there is still no unified law in effect. The topic remains an active debate.

#AirdropFinderGuide

Quick Tutorial to Find Cryptocurrency Airdrops:

* Stay Informed: Follow projects on social media (Twitter, Telegram), newsletters, and participate in online communities (Reddit).

* Use Platforms (with caution): Websites like Airdrops.io list airdrops, but research their legitimacy.

* Assess Legitimacy:
- Research the project (website, team, social media).
- Be wary of excessive requests for personal data.
- Real airdrops are free (without initial fees).
- Analyze the tasks (simple ones are common).

* Participate: Follow the instructions precisely and use a dedicated wallet for airdrops. Be prepared for small gas fees in some cases.

* Manage Expectations: Not all airdrops have value. Be patient and aware of scams. Never share private keys.

Focus on researching, being critical, and protecting your information.

#AltcoinETFsPostponed

The SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) of the USA has repeatedly extended the deadlines for the implementation of various ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds), especially those related to cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana.

Main points:

👉 Multiple delays: The SEC has postponed decisions on several crypto asset ETFs, with some deadlines being extended by up to 45 days.

👉 New SEC Chairman: The recent appointment of Paul Atkins as SEC chairman, known for his more favorable stance towards the crypto asset market, raises expectations for a possible regulatory change. However, the SEC has not yet made final decisions on pending applications.

👉 Review process: The SEC claims that the delays are necessary to adequately analyze the proposals and ensure investor protection. The main concerns involve regulatory clarity, the potential for market manipulation, and the custody of the underlying assets.

👉 Future deadlines: Decisions on some ETFs, such as the Grayscale Polkadot Trust, the Canary Hedera ETF, and the combined Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF from Bitwise, are expected by June 2025. For the Grayscale XRP ETF and the Cboe BZX Exchange spot Solana ETF, decisions are awaited for May 2025.

👉 Implications: The ongoing delays create uncertainty in the crypto asset market, as investors await the approval of these products that could facilitate access and increase the liquidity of these assets.
In summary, the SEC has shown caution in the approval of ETFs, especially those related to cryptocurrencies, repeatedly delaying decision deadlines. The arrival of a new chairman with a more open vision for the sector brings a new perspective, but the future of the implementation of these products is still uncertain.

AND YOU? WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT THE DELAY OF THE ETFs? LEAVE YOUR OPINION IN THE COMMENTS!!!

#AirdropSafetyGuide
And São?
A cryptocurrency airdrop is a marketing strategy where new cryptocurrencies or tokens are distributed for free to a large number of users. The main goal is to increase awareness and promote the adoption of the new cryptocurrency.

How Do Airdrops Work?
Typically, airdrops involve the distribution of small amounts of the new cryptocurrency to the digital wallets of existing users of other cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin or Ethereum. To participate in an airdrop, users may need to:

Own a certain amount of a specific cryptocurrency.

Register on the project's website.

Follow the project's social media accounts.

Share information about the project on social media.

Objectives of Airdrops
Airdrops can have several objectives, including:

Increase awareness: Help promote the new cryptocurrency and its project.

Build a community: Encourage people to engage with the project and become part of its community.

Distribute tokens: Distribute a wider amount of tokens to avoid concentration of ownership.

Reward users: Reward early supporters or active users of a platform.

🌜 CLOSING OF ASIAN MARKETS ON 30/04/2025 🌜

Asian markets showed mixed performance on April 30, 2025. The main indices and probable causes are:
Main Indices:

🇯🇵 Nikkei 225 (Japan): Closed up +0.57%, reaching 36,045.38 points.

🇨🇳 Shanghai Composite (China): Ended the day with a slight decline of -0.23%, at 3,279.03 points.

🇨🇳 Hang Seng (Hong Kong): Had a modest increase of +0.21%, closing at 22,054.00 points.

🇦🇺 S&P/ASX 200 (Australia): Showed good performance with an increase of +0.69%, reaching 8,126.20 points.

🇰🇷 KOSPI (South Korea): Experienced a decline of -0.70%, closing at 2,547.58 points.

Probable Causes:

👉 Weak Manufacturing Data in China: The release of weaker-than-expected Chinese manufacturing data raised concerns about the impact of the trade war with the United States on the country's economy. This may have contributed to the slight decline in the Shanghai index.

👉 Trade Tensions: Ongoing trade tensions between the US and China continue to influence investor sentiment in the region, generating volatility and mixed results.

👉 Monetary Policy: Expectations regarding the monetary policy of central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, may have influenced the performance of Asian markets.

👉 Performance of Specific Stocks: News and results from individual companies may also have impacted the performance of specific indices. For example, the good performance of some technology and consumer stocks may have helped sustain gains in some markets, while losses in sectors such as finance may have exerted pressure on others.

In summary, the mixed performance of Asian markets on April 30, 2025, seems to primarily reflect concerns about the impact of the trade war on the Chinese economy, along with ongoing attention to global monetary policies and market-specific factors.

$BTC

#Trump100Days

First 100 Days of Trump

The first 100 days of the current government of Donald Trump were marked by a series of events that impacted the American economy, generating both optimism and concern among analysts and investors. Here are some of the key points:

Financial Markets:

* American stock markets, such as the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq, experienced significant declines.

* This volatility reflects investors' uncertainty regarding the government's economic policies, especially concerning trade tariffs.

Trade Policy:

* The imposition of tariffs on imported products from various countries, including China, generated trade tensions and concerns about a potential trade war.

* These measures aim to protect the American industry but may also increase costs for consumers and harm exports.

Inflation and Interest Rates:

* Inflation continued to be a concern, with rising prices affecting the purchasing power of Americans.

* The Federal Reserve (Fed) maintained its policy of raising interest rates to control inflation, which may slow down economic growth.

Overall Economic Performance:

* Public opinion polls show increasing disapproval of how Trump is handling the economy.

* Concern about inflation and rising prices is significant among Americans.

* Economic growth has shown signs of slowing down.

In summary, the first 100 days of the Trump administration were characterized by a volatile economy, with unstable financial markets and concerns about the impact of trade policies and inflation.

The cryptocurrency market is heavily dependent on narratives. To some extent, this information warfare shapes the prices.

🇺🇸 CLOSING OF THE AMERICAN MARKETS ON 04/29/2025 🇺🇸

On April 29, 2025, the American markets closed with solid gains, driven mainly by a wave of positive corporate earnings and some relief from trade war concerns.

👉 Dow Jones Industrial Average: Closed up 0.8%, or 300.03 points, reaching 40,527.62.

👉 S&P 500: Rose 0.6%, or 32.08 points, closing at 5,560.83. This marked the sixth consecutive day of gains for the S&P 500.

👉 Nasdaq Composite: Had a gain of 0.6%, or 95.18 points, finishing the day at 17,461.32.

Main Causes of the Rise:

🤑 Positive Corporate Earnings: Several companies reported quarterly earnings that exceeded analysts' expectations, injecting optimism into the market. Notable mentions include companies like Honeywell and Sherwin-Williams, whose stocks saw significant gains following their earnings reports.

💥 Relief in Trade Concerns: There was some easing of trade tensions, with investors interpreting certain statements as a possible retreat on tariffs, which boosted market sentiment.

📉 Highlighted Sectors: The energy, real estate, and utilities sectors performed well.

Despite the overall positive sentiment, some specific stocks faced declines due to weaker projections, such as Supermicro. However, the overall outlook was of a market driven by resilient corporate profits and cautious optimism regarding the trade landscape.

$BTC

#AbuDhabiStablecoin Abu Dhabi is paving a significant path in the stablecoin space. Recently, three major institutions in Abu Dhabi - Abu Dhabi Developmental Holding Company (ADQ), International Holding Company (IHC), and First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB) - announced plans to launch a new stablecoin backed by the local currency, the dirham (AED).

This initiative, which has the support of major institutions and a strong blockchain infrastructure, aims to revolutionize financial transactions, trade, and the digital industry in the Gulf region and globally. The new stablecoin will be fully regulated by the Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates and will operate on the ADI blockchain.

Furthermore, the Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM), the international financial center of the capital of the United Arab Emirates, already has a regulatory framework for "fiat-referenced tokens" (FRTs), which encompass stablecoins. This framework aims to ensure stability, transparency, and investor protection while fostering innovation in digital finance. The Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) of ADGM allows the issuance of FRTs backed by the US dollar, provided they meet strict reserve and compliance standards.

Recently, Circle, the issuer of the USDC stablecoin, received preliminary approval from the FSRA of ADGM to operate as a financial services provider, an important step toward obtaining a full license and expanding its operations in the Middle East and Africa.

#ArizonaBTCReserve The state of Arizona has taken a significant step in the world of cryptocurrencies by approving two bills that allow the investment of up to 10% of public funds in Bitcoin (BTC) and other digital assets. This measure makes Arizona the first state in the United States to formally have a strategic reserve of Bitcoin. Both bills are now awaiting the signature of Governor Katie Hobbs to become official.

If signed, this legislation will allow Arizona to invest up to 10% of its public assets, which total over $31 billion, in digital assets. This could potentially position Arizona as the second largest institutional holder of Bitcoin among public entities in the U.S.

The approval of these bills represents an important milestone in the integration of cryptocurrencies into the public finances of the U.S. and may serve as a precedent for other states.

#XRPETFs

Summary of the latest news on XRP ETFs:

Approvals of XRP Futures ETFs in the USA:

The SEC approved three XRP futures ETFs from ProShares Trust: ProShares XRP Strategy ETF, ProShares Short XRP Strategy ETF, and ProShares XRP Blend Strategy ETF. The launch is scheduled for April 30, 2025.

These ETFs will provide investors with indirect exposure to XRP price movements through futures contracts.

This approval is seen as a positive step for broader institutional adoption of XRP, although investors are still awaiting the approval of spot ETFs.

Launch of the First Spot ETF for XRP in Brazil:

Brazil became the first country to launch a spot ETF for XRP. The ETF, named XRPH11, began trading on B3 (the Brazilian stock exchange) on Friday, April 25, 2025.

The Hashdex ETF will invest at least 95% of its assets directly in XRP or in financial instruments that track the performance of the XRP benchmark index.

Update on Grayscale XRP Trust and Spot ETFs in the USA:

NYSE Arca has requested the conversion of the Grayscale XRP Trust into a spot ETF.

The SEC has started analyzing Grayscale's proposal, with a deadline expected by mid-October 2025. The SEC may approve at any time within this period.

Other companies, such as Franklin Templeton, Bitwise, and 21Shares, have also submitted applications for spot XRP ETFs in the USA.

Market sentiment regarding the approval of spot XRP ETFs in the USA seems mixed, with approval expectations gradually increasing.

Impact on XRP Price:

The price of XRP has seen a significant increase in recent days, driven by news of futures ETFs and the launch of the spot ETF in Brazil.

Technical analysts point to a "falling wedge" pattern that has been broken, suggesting a potential price increase of 55%.

Accumulation by large holders ("whales") is also being observed as a supporting factor for the price.