Heath Fishbein AxdY

Price action follows a rhythmic repetitive pattern that is captured in three primary phases

1. Accumulation ; also known as the consolidation phase. Price moves sideways respecting the support and resistance levels and tries to build momentum. This a crucial step for price breakouts as orders (liquidity) from market participants start to accumulate. Confirmations for price breakouts can easily be seen in this phase

2. Manipulation: also known as” false breakouts” after accumulation phase. The market makers in crypto markets tend to trap retail traders. The market moves into the opposite direction trapping either buyers or sellers in their opposing direction before making the real move. Mostly traders get stopped out from the market due to fear of missing out( FOMO).

3. Distribution: This is the delivery phase. There is a lot of volatility and price moves strongly in one direction. It is the most alluring phase and the volumes it exhibits in either upward or downward, provides opportunity for disciplined traders to bag profits.

Other phases include;

4. Retracement; occurs after an expansion and price tends to pullback to newly created support or resistance levels within the existing trend. This usually represents profit taking opportunities for short term trading market participants but doesn’t affect the real trend.

Reversal: mostly occurs after the distribution phase. Price moves in the opposite direction and breaks the newly created trend. It signals a potential change in the dominant trend in the market.

THE GOLDEN RULE

The market structure is not random it follows a strict logical order.

Valid sequence of what can happen include

1. Distribution & Retracement: A strong directional move then a pullback to the new key support or resistance level within the trend.
2. Distribution and reversal: A strong directional move to the upside or downside which exhausts the market volume and the trend completely reverses.
3. Distribution and Consolidation:  A strong directional move which eventually fades due to low volume or fading of momentum.
4. Consolidation and Distribution: The breakout trigger. As a trader this is the most crucial sequence. The market gathers the orders, hunts them and eventually distributes.

Invalid sequence include
1. consolidation and reversal: Price requires an expansion before it reverses. The only thing that price can do is consolidate and manipulate by giving out false breakouts.
2. consolidation and retracement: cannot also happen

HOW DO WE TRADE MARKET BREAKOUTS: Key tactics

1. Identify the consolidation: Identify key periods where the market respects various support and resistance levels, periods of low volume or accumulation of orders. This can be easily identified in the lower timeframes i.e 30m,15m,5m and 1m

2.patience: Allow for consolidations to form after an expansion. Do not anticipate breakouts.

3. Look for confirmations and wait for them to form: Expect the sudden directional move. Breakouts usually happen so fast and as trader positioning yourself before it happens usually prevents confusion or FOMO.

4. Always watch out for False Breakouts: Sudden breakouts in the market to the opposite direction usually happens trapping impatient traders. To prevent this always have a directional bias and confirmations before positioning yourself into the trade.

5. Respect Fundamentals: Always watchout for fundamental news events. They usually provides catalyst for price breakouts and movement.

UNDERSTAND THE ORDER OR TRADE THE CONFUSION

Ignoring the logical sequence of price action-particularly the necessity of price accumulation before distribution for a true breakout leads to losses, FOMO and poor entries. As a trader, always focus on identifying consolidations, watching for false breakouts, demanding for confirmation signals and being aware of fundamentals. This cultures good crypto trading habits and ensures that your trading aligns with the market’s natural rhythm.
#TradingStrategyMistakes , #TrendTradingStragery , #BreakoutTradingStrategy

        Breaking: Tron to Enter U.S Markets via Reverse Merger

TRON(TRX) is poised to become the first major altcoin listed on a U.S stock exchange through a reverse merger  with Nasdaq-listed shell company (SRM entertainment). The deal orchestrated by Trump-affiliated  investment bank-Dominari Securities, will inject $210 million worth of TRX tokens into the new entity-TRON INC, and install Eric Trump in a key management role.

This strategic move bypasses traditional IPO hurdles, accelerating TRX’s entry into regulated markets. Analysts view it as a political masterstroke, leveraging Justin Sun’s(Founder of TRX blockchain platform) recent $ 3o million investment in Trump-backed De-Fi project-World Liberty Financial. The merger is expected to close by Q3 2025 pending SEC approvals.

        Market Reactions and Price Surge

TRX surged 5% on merger rumors, briefly overtaking DOGECOIN in market cap.
Current trading hovers at $0.2804
Bullish sentiment dominates with 53%

          2025 Price Forecasts

While the merger fuels optimism, price vary sharply:
-Bull Case - Binance projects a short term high to $0.35
-Bear Case -Changelly forecasts a conservative $0.204
-Consensus -Average 2025 targets cluster near $0.56

         Investor Takeaways

1. Short-Term: Merger news could push TRX to $ 0.34 by July 2025.
2. Long- Term: A $1 target remains plausible for 2029-2030.

”Tron’s U.S listing is a watershed moment for crypto,” said market analyst Lena Koehler. “But without organic adoption beyond stablecoins, the Trump Card alone isn’t enough.”

Sources: SEC fillings