神马资讯

The U.S. International Trade Court has accepted a lawsuit against Trump's tariff policy. The non-partisan legal organization 'Freedom Justice Center' represents five importing companies impacted by the tariffs, accusing the President of imposing tariffs without Congressional authorization and requesting the court to halt the related trade measures.
The involved companies cover multiple industries, including wine importers and educational equipment manufacturers, directly targeting Trump's April 2 'Day of Liberation' tariff order and his increased tariffs on China. Attorney Schwab pointed out that the Constitution explicitly states that the legislative power for tariffs belongs to Congress, and the President does not have the authority to unilaterally make such significant economic decisions.

Dennis Porter, co-founder of blockchain investment firm Satoshi Action Fund, recently pointed out on social media that the ongoing legislative efforts regarding crypto market structure could become a key catalyst for Bitcoin's price breakthrough. He believes that if the bill is ultimately passed, it will completely break down the institutional barriers for traditional capital to enter the crypto space, triggering the 'largest scale' influx of institutional funds in history.
This seasoned practitioner emphasizes that the improvement of the regulatory framework will reshape market confidence, making mainstream crypto assets like Bitcoin important allocation targets for compliant capital. The liquidity injection brought by this institutional dividend is expected to drive Bitcoin to start a new round of value reassessment.

Cryptocurrency analyst Titan of Crypto recently released an optimistic forecast, believing that Bitcoin will aim for the historical high of $137,000 this summer (July-August). The technical basis for this is that a typical bullish flag pattern has formed on the daily chart, which usually indicates a breakout.
The analyst emphasized that a necessary prerequisite for achieving this goal is for Bitcoin to effectively break through and hold above the 200-day moving average. If support is obtained from a multi-period moving average system on higher time frame charts, a 'golden cross resonance' effect will be formed, significantly enhancing upward momentum. Technical models indicate that if the recovery of key moving averages is completed, Bitcoin will not only test the $100,000 integer level, but may also aim for the milestone price of $137,000.

The team of former U.S. President Trump recently submitted an emergency appeal to the Supreme Court, seeking to overturn the legal framework of the "Humphrey's Executor case," which restricts presidential dismissal powers. Established in 1935, this precedent stipulates that the president cannot arbitrarily remove heads of independent agencies with quasi-judicial or quasi-legislative functions, aiming to protect the political independence of agencies such as the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Recently, local courts have twice rejected Trump's attempts to dismiss two members of administrative agencies appointed by Biden, based on the spirit of this case. Trump's team emphasized in the appeal that the president should not be forced to retain agency heads whose policies are contrary to his own, even if the "execution of policies has caused irreversible harm" during the transition period.

Monitoring by crypto data platforms shows that as of April 14, the total amount of outstanding Bitcoin futures contracts across the network reached 669,400 contracts (equivalent to 56.53 billion USD), setting a recent high. The dominance of traditional financial institutions in the positioning landscape is becoming increasingly evident.
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) ranks first with 138,000 contracts (11.65 billion USD) in open interest, accounting for over 20%; Binance follows closely with 113,000 contracts (9.55 billion USD), forming a market structure led by two major trading giants.
Analysts point out that the deep involvement of institutional funds is driving continuous expansion of the derivatives market, with current open interest nearing historical high levels. This trend of concentrated positions not only reflects the market's increased recognition of cryptocurrency asset allocation but also hints at potential liquidity risks. It is worth noting that if the market experiences severe volatility, highly concentrated positions could trigger a chain reaction.

On April 13, the U.S. government suddenly implemented tariff exemptions on electronic products such as smartphones and chips, revealing a deep-seated crisis behind this policy shift. University of Chicago political science professor Guarino pointed out that the chain reaction caused by tariffs has directly impacted U.S. government decision-making, forcing the White House to adjust its strategy.
Economist Bernstein reveals the core driving force behind the policy shift: the Trump team has begun to realize that the weapon of tariffs is backfiring on the U.S. economy. He warned that if the current exemption scope cannot effectively prevent the ripple effects of tariffs from spreading to the bond market, it could trigger a systemic risk collapse, which could evolve into a global financial crisis. This policy adjustment is seen as a signal from Washington attempting to brake urgently in the quagmire of the trade war, but whether it can prevent the domino effect on the economy remains to be seen.

Germany's incoming Chancellor Merz issued a stern warning on April 13 regarding Trump's trade policy, stating that protective tariff measures are raising systemic risks in the global economy. He called for the resumption of transatlantic free trade negotiations to achieve "comprehensive zero tariffs" to safeguard the common interests of the US and Europe.
The current trade game between the US and Europe has reached a stalemate: the EU proposed a scheme for equivalent concessions on industrial products, but Trump countered with a demand for "energy purchases to replace tariffs." Merz emphasized that if the US continues its tendency to withdraw, Europe will accelerate its strategic shift and deepen its economic ties with non-US markets.

The tariff list introduced by the Trump administration in early April triggered severe fluctuations in global financial markets, with international crude oil futures plummeting 20% and stock market volatility nearing the 2020 circuit breaker crisis. Traditional safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries faced an unusual wave of selling. The 30-year Treasury futures fell nearly 10% in one week, with yields soaring 56 basis points in three days, marking the largest increase since 1982, as the arbitrage mechanism between Treasury futures and spot markets approached collapse.
This tariff war is dismantling the foundations of dollar hegemony. Over the past few decades, the dollar has been exported globally through trade deficits, with countries returning dollars to the U.S. Treasury market, forming a 'dollar tide' that supports low interest rates and high consumption in the U.S. However, the protectionist policies of the Trump administration are breaking this cycle:

On April 10, the financial markets were swept by a storm of interest rate cut expectations. The latest data shows that traders' bets on the Federal Reserve implementing a 100 basis point rate cut before the end of 2025 have significantly expanded, reflecting a reassessment of the U.S. economic outlook by the market. Although the current federal funds rate remains in the 5%-5.25% range, recent signals such as slowing inflation data and a cooling job market are prompting investors to position themselves for a shift in monetary policy.
It is worth noting that the bets on interest rate cuts have shown a 'leap' growth characteristic. Compared to March, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the December meeting has surged from 42% to 81%, and the aggressive expectation of a 100 basis point cut for the entire year has more than doubled since the beginning of the month. Analysts warn that this expectation gap may exacerbate market volatility, and it is necessary to closely monitor subsequent economic data and changes in statements from Federal Reserve officials.

In response to the United States' unilateral imposition of a 125% tariff on China, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian expressed a strong stance. He pointed out that the U.S. has turned tariffs into a tool of extreme pressure for its own selfish interests, which seriously violates WTO rules, undermines the multilateral trading system, and impacts the global economic order, essentially constituting a blatant trampling of international economic and trade rules.
The spokesperson emphasized that China has always advocated resolving differences through dialogue, but in the face of hegemonic trade coercion, China is unwilling to fight but certainly not afraid to fight. 'We will not sit idly by as national interests are harmed, nor will we watch international rules being violated. If the U.S. insists on escalating the tariff war, China will take resolute measures to accompany it to the end.'

President Trump issued an urgent call to congressional Republicans, urging the House to advance the legislative process for the tax cut bill immediately. The White House emphasized that the passage of this bill under the current economic circumstances will directly affect the international competitiveness of American businesses and the disposable income of the middle class, making it a key measure to boost economic vitality.
Trump stated through social media: "Our tax cut plan has been fully validated; what is needed now is action, not debate. Republicans must demonstrate decisiveness to ensure American taxpayers receive relief benefits as soon as possible." Analysts pointed out that with the midterm elections approaching, the White House is accelerating the implementation of landmark economic policies to solidify the ruling party's voter base.

The tariff stick wielded by Trump is stirring up waves in the global market. The Dow plunged 2,595 points in a single day, marking the largest fluctuation in history, global stock market value evaporated by over $10 trillion, oil prices plummeted under pressure, and expectations for interest rate cuts rose yet could not alleviate inflation concerns. In the face of this unprecedented trade war, Wall Street's financial giants have rarely spoken out collectively, strongly questioning the rationale behind the tariff policy.
Pershing Square's head Ackman pointed out that the United States is waging an 'economic nuclear war' against the world. Former Goldman Sachs CEO Blankfein called for resolving tariff conflicts through negotiations, while JPMorgan CEO Dimon warned that negative effects will continue to accumulate. The archetypal short seller Eisman asserted that the market has not yet digested the worst-case scenario. The collective loss of composure among these usually cautious financial giants reflects deep concerns about policy losing control.

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink recently issued a stark warning, stating that the Trump administration's tariff policy could trigger two major economic crises: undermining the dollar's status as the world's primary reserve currency and pushing the U.S. economy toward the brink of recession. After discussions with several multinational executives, Fink pointed out that business leaders have generally reached a consensus—early signs of a technical recession are already evident in the U.S. economy.
"The uncertainty brought by the trade war is destroying business investment confidence," Fink emphasized. He specifically noted the triple pressure of restructuring costs in manufacturing supply chains, declining consumer confidence index, and shrinking international trade, which have formed a vicious cycle of economic downturn. This assessment resonates with recent cautious statements from Federal Reserve officials, highlighting the deep concerns of policymakers and the business community about the economic outlook.

The implementation of the U.S. 'reciprocal tariff' policy has only been in effect for a week, yet it has triggered severe fluctuations in global capital markets. According to Bloomberg, since April 3, the total market value of global stocks has evaporated by over $10 trillion, equivalent to 40% of the annual economic output of the European Union. As the initiating country of the policy, the U.S. stock market has been adversely affected— the overall market value of the technology sector has shrunk by $1.65 trillion, with Apple Inc. experiencing a 23% plunge in stock price over four trading days due to its heavy reliance on overseas markets, marking the largest weekly decline in recent years.
Market analysts point out that the spillover effects of this tariff policy far exceed expectations, impacting not only China-U.S. trade but also transmitting through the global supply chain to economies in Europe, Asia, and beyond. Investors are concerned that if the trade war continues to escalate, it may trigger a wave of profit warnings from multinational corporations, further intensifying market volatility. Currently, global stock markets have entered a technically corrective zone, and investors are closely monitoring the Fed meeting minutes to look for clues on policy hedging.

Federal Reserve observers point out that the tariff increases imposed by the Trump administration are pushing the central bank towards a policy crossroads. Economists warn that the large-scale tariff measures set to take effect may push the U.S. economy to the brink of recession by suppressing business investment and consumer demand, which objectively requires the central bank to counteract economic downward pressure through interest rate cuts. However, the increased import costs due to tariffs may translate into input-driven inflationary pressures, forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain current interest rate levels to stabilize price expectations.
"This is the most difficult dilemma in forty years," noted former Federal Reserve Governor Laurence Meyer. According to the dual mandate given by Congress, the central bank must ensure both price stability and full employment, but tariff policy is creating policy backlash: interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy may exacerbate inflation, while interest rate hikes to control inflation may deepen recession risks. Historical data shows that since the 1980s, no presidential policy has so profoundly torn apart the Federal Reserve's policy objectives.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin made an urgent clarification on Monday regarding rumors of adjustments to tariff policies. He clearly stated that while the Trump administration is open to reducing tariffs, the decision-making process is entirely independent of market fluctuations, denying that any policy pressure was involved in discussions with Trump over the weekend.
"The negotiation table is filled with calls from various countries, and this is the real driving force behind policy adjustments," Mnuchin emphasized, noting that the current focus of negotiations has shifted to economies with long-standing large trade deficits. "As long as we come with feasible proposals, we can definitely reach a reciprocal agreement." He also left room for policy flexibility, suggesting that even if an agreement is ultimately reached, some strategic tariffs may still be retained as long-term trade adjustment tools.

The U.S. business community is gearing up for a legal counterattack. According to Fortune magazine, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which represents millions of businesses across the country, has entered the preparatory stage for judicial proceedings and plans to file a federal lawsuit against the Trump administration's upcoming tariff policy. The organization's core decision-making body recently received multiple pressure letters from member industry giants, requesting to intercept the new tariff order set to take effect on the 9th through legal means.
As the most influential lobbying group in Washington, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce has taken a rare confrontational stance, indicating that the tariff policy has touched the core interests of the business community. Sources reveal that several industry organizations, including the Manufacturing Association and the Agricultural Alliance, are in intensive discussions with the U.S. Chamber of Commerce regarding a joint lawsuit and are expected to decide this week whether to form a cross-industry plaintiffs' alliance.

If Trump fulfills his threat of imposing an additional 50% tariff on China, the global economy will face a domino effect of chain reactions, with specific impacts unfolding across five dimensions:
First wave of impact: Forced reconstruction of global supply chains.
• China's position as the 'world's factory' will face direct impact, and American importers may be forced to shift orders to alternative production locations such as Vietnam and Mexico, which will lead to supply shortages and soaring costs in the short term.
• The automotive industry will be hit first; if the Model 3 produced at Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory is subjected to a 50% tariff, its price in the U.S. will exceed $60,000, directly threatening its market competitiveness.

The latest strategy report released by the cryptocurrency market analysis agency Matrixport reveals that the current US dollar to Chinese yuan exchange rate (USDCNY) is approaching a key resistance zone, mirroring the market structure during the RMB depreciation cycle in 2015. Historical data shows that although the initial depreciation of the RMB in that year triggered a wave of Bitcoin sell-offs, the price of digital currencies rebounded strongly before the end of the year, recording significant positive gains for the entire year. The analysis team believes that a similar market momentum transition logic may be replaying.
The report points out that the technical pattern of USDCNY has shown signs of a breakout, which highly aligns with the 'suppression - explosion' model of the gold market 18 months ago. It is noteworthy that at that time, institutions' bullish predictions on precious metals were based on similar technical pattern evolution and the resonance of macroeconomic variables. This cross-asset class analysis framework provides a new prism for understanding the potential trends of Bitcoin.