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#PENGUN
š¤Æ How I Got the Next Candlestick Prediction Wrong for $PENGU / $USDC
Today I bring you an analysis that went wrong and I want to share (people here usually only show what's right) how my interpretation of the PENGU/USDC chart ended up leading me to a wrong prediction. Part of learning in the market is understanding where we went wrong in order to improve in the future.
My Interpretation: Ascending Wedge
When analyzing the chart, I identified what appeared to be an ascending wedge, a chart pattern that usually indicates a bearish reversal. This pattern is characterized by two converging ascending trendlines, with the price forming lower highs and higher lows, signaling a possible exhaustion of buying power.
With the RSI already in the overbought zone (87.37) and the price near the resistance of the wedge, I projected that the next move would be a pullback, breaking the support of the pattern (lower trendline) and confirming the complete formation of the wedge.
What Really Happened?
As soon as the next candle was formed, the price broke the upper resistance line (upper trendline of the wedge) with force, generating an explosive move to the upside and completely invalidating my pullback prediction.
The breakout showed that the pattern I identified was not an ascending wedge, but rather an uptrend channel with strong momentum, indicating that buying pressure was still dominating the market.
Why Did I Get It Wrong?
1. Pattern Confusion:
I misinterpreted the move as an ascending wedge, when in fact the price was moving within an uptrend channel with strong signs of an uptrend breakout.
2. Underestimated Momentum:
Buying pressure was much greater than the reversal signals suggested by the elevated RSI or the shape of the chart.
3. Ignored Breakout Signals:
The increased volume and proximity of resistance indicated the possibility of a breakout that went unnoticed in my analysis.
š¤Æ How I Got the Next Candlestick Prediction Wrong for $PENGU / $USDC
Today I bring you an analysis that went wrong and I want to share (people here usually only show what's right) how my interpretation of the PENGU/USDC chart ended up leading me to a wrong prediction. Part of learning in the market is understanding where we went wrong in order to improve in the future.
My Interpretation: Ascending Wedge
When analyzing the chart, I identified what appeared to be an ascending wedge, a chart pattern that usually indicates a bearish reversal. This pattern is characterized by two converging ascending trendlines, with the price forming lower highs and higher lows, signaling a possible exhaustion of buying power.
With the RSI already in the overbought zone (87.37) and the price near the resistance of the wedge, I projected that the next move would be a pullback, breaking the support of the pattern (lower trendline) and confirming the complete formation of the wedge.
What Really Happened?
As soon as the next candle was formed, the price broke the upper resistance line (upper trendline of the wedge) with force, generating an explosive move to the upside and completely invalidating my pullback prediction.
The breakout showed that the pattern I identified was not an ascending wedge, but rather an uptrend channel with strong momentum, indicating that buying pressure was still dominating the market.
Why Did I Get It Wrong?
1. Pattern Confusion:
I misinterpreted the move as an ascending wedge, when in fact the price was moving within an uptrend channel with strong signs of an uptrend breakout.
2. Underestimated Momentum:
Buying pressure was much greater than the reversal signals suggested by the elevated RSI or the shape of the chart.
3. Ignored Breakout Signals:
The increased volume and proximity of resistance indicated the possibility of a breakout that went unnoticed in my analysis.
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Taking advantage of market opportunities!
While many are criticizing $USUAL and the recently released $BIO , I am focused on strategy and discipline. While I wait for at least 3 bearish candles on the weekly chart of USUAL, I believe that we are close to a significant recovery of this asset.
I believe in the short-term appreciation of $BIO , but I know that, like $USUAL , it will also have a future correction. I will take advantage of this bullish window of BIO to balance my portfolio and maximize gains while USUAL is still falling.
As soon as USUAL starts to rise, my strategy will be to consolidate profits and prepare for more stable movements.
Why this approach?
1. I use the bullish and bearish cycles intelligently, taking advantage of the right timing for entry and exit.
2. I keep my tokens in Earn, ensuring that they yield while I wait for market movements.
3. The focus is on the planned appreciation: catching the BIO high in the short term and the recovery of the USUAL medium/long term.
4. After the highs, I will convert the tokens to $USDC , keeping everything in Earn and 25% allocated to Futures Operations.
While some only see chaos, others see opportunities. š
While many are criticizing $USUAL and the recently released $BIO , I am focused on strategy and discipline. While I wait for at least 3 bearish candles on the weekly chart of USUAL, I believe that we are close to a significant recovery of this asset.
I believe in the short-term appreciation of $BIO , but I know that, like $USUAL , it will also have a future correction. I will take advantage of this bullish window of BIO to balance my portfolio and maximize gains while USUAL is still falling.
As soon as USUAL starts to rise, my strategy will be to consolidate profits and prepare for more stable movements.
Why this approach?
1. I use the bullish and bearish cycles intelligently, taking advantage of the right timing for entry and exit.
2. I keep my tokens in Earn, ensuring that they yield while I wait for market movements.
3. The focus is on the planned appreciation: catching the BIO high in the short term and the recovery of the USUAL medium/long term.
4. After the highs, I will convert the tokens to $USDC , keeping everything in Earn and 25% allocated to Futures Operations.
While some only see chaos, others see opportunities. š
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#WARNING
I've noticed a lot of people criticizing $USUAL , but honestly, I can't understand this kind of behavior coming from crypto investors. For me, you don't need to be a technical expert to understand the weekly chart (1W).
If you look closely, any healthy cryptocurrency asset follows a wave-like movement. This is something natural, driven by bullish and bearish cycles in the market. I'm a dev, and to this day I don't know of a crypto whose chart doesn't form waves over time. Am I wrong?
The question here is: whoever entered $USUAL and is at a loss needs to evaluate the market with patience and strategy. It doesn't make sense to sell now, when the price is lower. For those who bought, I recommend that you put your tokens in an Earn or Staking program, if available. This way, you can earn income while waiting for the recovery movement.
Remember: the crypto market is volatile, but it also rewards those who know how to wait for the medium and long term. Hold on to your assets, don't sell at a low.
Trust the cycle, stay calm, and focus on your strategy.
I've noticed a lot of people criticizing $USUAL , but honestly, I can't understand this kind of behavior coming from crypto investors. For me, you don't need to be a technical expert to understand the weekly chart (1W).
If you look closely, any healthy cryptocurrency asset follows a wave-like movement. This is something natural, driven by bullish and bearish cycles in the market. I'm a dev, and to this day I don't know of a crypto whose chart doesn't form waves over time. Am I wrong?
The question here is: whoever entered $USUAL and is at a loss needs to evaluate the market with patience and strategy. It doesn't make sense to sell now, when the price is lower. For those who bought, I recommend that you put your tokens in an Earn or Staking program, if available. This way, you can earn income while waiting for the recovery movement.
Remember: the crypto market is volatile, but it also rewards those who know how to wait for the medium and long term. Hold on to your assets, don't sell at a low.
Trust the cycle, stay calm, and focus on your strategy.
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