加密懿懿

The premise of all strategies is money management. Do not fully invest in a single asset; leave some room to cope with unforeseen fluctuations and opportunities.

This market is really a bull market for delisted coins

This $ALPACA is really pulling up

It's gone up more than 3 times, I'm impressed

Don't be superstitious about candlestick charts; the project teams and big investors see much further than you do.

No matter how perfect the chart is, it can't hold up against a piece of "bad news" or a wave of "big investors selling off." Candlestick charts are a reference, not the answer. Many technical analysts fail due to over-reliance on charts while ignoring the underlying project logic, capital flow, and market sentiment. Charts can deceive, but data speaks the truth. Understanding the cryptocurrency itself, its capital structure, and community trends is much more useful than studying triangle breakouts.

Cognition Determines Height: The Market You Don't Understand, Others Have Already Positioned in Advance

Why do you always buy just before it drops and sell just before it rises?

It's not that you have bad luck; it's that you fundamentally don't understand the logic behind the market.

Many rises are not coincidental; rather, someone has already understood the trend and positioned themselves in advance.

While you're still looking at news to judge market trends, others have already adjusted their positions based on macro cycles.

Trading cryptocurrencies is not about who can read technical indicators, but rather about who has a deeper understanding.

If you want to survive in this market, you must continue to learn and constantly refresh your cognitive map.

Every day watching the market is like opening a blind box; if it rises, it's 'I knew it all along,' and if it falls, it's 'the big investors are so bad.'
In the circle of friends, some shout that the bull market has begun, while secretly adding positions at the peak.
One day in the crypto world is like a year in the human world; when the trend arrives, everyone is a big influencer, but when the wind blows away, only inner monologues remain.
Sometimes, making money relies on luck, while losing money relies on skill. It's okay, if it falls, I can still write a recap to trick people into liking it!

The pancake has been grinding at this position for a long time, and the trend still maintains a bullish stance. ETH has also had a few false breakouts; structurally, it still leans towards another upward wave, and it's expected to reach 98,000 before starting the next pullback.

Some altcoins have already started to pull back after their rallies. Either they made a false breakout at the resistance level and then dropped back down, or they tried a few that weren't very ideal. It might be time for some wise contemplation again.

btc
Hourly level showed a downward fluctuation in the morning, started to rise in the afternoon, and in the late trading of US stocks, there was another quick drop around midnight. The fluctuations at the hourly level are starting to increase, which means the fluctuations at the daily level will also increase.
The 1-hour and 2-hour levels are no longer sufficient to support the current high-level fluctuations. Currently, the momentum at the 4-hour level is supporting it, and the price needs to retrace to the 4-hour or 8-hour support before rising again for a healthier trend. The retracement position is at 92750-90300.
As for the strong support at the daily level, one is the MA120 line (91680) and the other is the daily MA30 line (86470). The daily MA30 line is relatively far from the price, so it is unlikely that the price will drop that much in a short time. Therefore, the MA30 line will continue to rise and approach the price.
The upward trend at the weekly level has been confirmed, and any retracement presents a buying opportunity.
The daily level resistance is at 96188-99700-102044, and the support is at 91680-88950-86120-82880.

没有耐心，就没有利润；没有认知，就没有底气

In the cryptocurrency world, most people are not investing; they are essentially 'gambling'. High-risk plays like altcoins, contracts, and on-chain trading are constantly emerging, and at their core, they all involve betting on a chance to get rich quickly. When the market is good, everyone goes wild like gamblers, as if they could achieve financial freedom by tomorrow.

But gambling also requires strategy; at the very least, you should choose a 'track' you are familiar with to have a chance of winning. I used to advise people to stay away from contract trading, but now I realize that this kind of thinking was too idealistic. Only through personal experience can one understand in which areas they have advantages and where they are likely to step on landmines.

On-chain trading and primary market investments are actually just variations of a gambling game. I once thought that helping others make money was an achievement, but now I understand—this path can only be walked alone. Even if you help someone make money temporarily, if their understanding does not improve, they will eventually lose it all back.

There is no absolute righteous camp in the cryptocurrency world. VC firms, institutions, and even so-called 'elites' all have the same ultimate goal—to win your chips in this game. This is the reality.

The phrase "The bull market is back!" appears in the crypto world with a frequency comparable to "Tomorrow will hit the limit."

The heat of the community is often lagging, and real opportunities arise when something is "ignored."

When you see a certain coin trending first and everyone in the group is discussing it, it is likely the last leg.

Where there are many people is not a safe zone, but a harvesting zone.

The truly smart money has already positioned itself long before you heard about it; by the time you come in, they are preparing to leave.

Learning to observe obscure data, focusing on on-chain transfers, and tracking the flow of "smart money" is much more reliable than following KOLs' calls.

Bitcoin keeps rising, but altcoins remain 'stuck'

To be honest, this market trend is a bit confusing. Bitcoin has surged from 20,000 to nearly 100,000, showing strong momentum, but looking back at altcoins, there is almost no movement. Every time BTC reaches a new high, there is always the expectation that it's altcoins' turn to soar, only to be disappointed repeatedly.

Where lies the problem? Is it that the overall valuation of altcoins is too high, leaving no opportunity for a rebound? Or have early VCs already completed their positions, just waiting to offload at high prices once they hit the exchanges? Nowadays, many new coins start with a market cap of 300 million USD as soon as they launch, and the latter possibility seems more likely.

In the past, we talked about the story of 'undervalued surges,' but now it has turned into the reality of 'overvalued slow deaths.' On one side, Bitcoin continues to grow stronger, while on the other, altcoins seem like a bubble that has been inflated to its limit but still refuses to burst. How much longer can this bubble last without genuine new retail funds entering the market? Is the altcoin bull market on the way, or will it never come?

In the recent decline, the high-leverage long positions of $BTC have been liquidated.

It now appears that the next target may be the high-leverage short positions.

If $BTC rises to $95,700, short positions worth $298.94 million will be liquidated.

目前比特币正处在前期套牢区间，这一带聚集了大量被套筹码，想要轻易突破并不现实，除非出现重大利好，或者经历充分调整后积累足够动能。

从技术面看，比特币已经反弹接近斐波那契0.618位置，短期冲击十万美元的可能性不大。尤其是随着迪拜 Token2049 大会临近，市场也在担心“逢会必跌”的惯性，因此短线操作上需要保持谨慎。

另一个关键参考是120日均线，目前在约91700一线，比特币暂时站稳其上，短线结构仍稳。但一旦跌破这一支撑，恐将引发市场情绪转弱甚至恐慌抛售。

综合来看，当前阶段应以谨慎为主，短期越涨越要考虑分批止盈，而不是盲目追高。比特币横盘震荡期间，部分资金可能流入山寨币市场，可适当关注其轮动机会；但若比特币跌破120日均线，务必做好减仓防守。

涨也别上头，跌也别绝望。

币圈没有直上直下，只有潮起潮落。

记住，周期不是用来预测的，是用来等待的。

The rise and fall of altcoins usually goes through four stages: turning point, testing, one-sided rise, and acceleration.

Market trends do not come suddenly but unfold gradually.

Currently, most altcoins are in the turning point stage (such as AXL, JUP, INJ, CHZ); a few have entered the testing stage (such as BCH, RAY, XRP); and very few like SUI, FART, and TRUMP have already experienced a one-sided rise.

The acceleration stage has not yet arrived.

This means that the overall trend reversal of the market is still far off, market sentiment has not reached consensus, and the price structure has not completed the transition of support and resistance.

At this stage, the best strategy is to look for high-risk positions, patiently wait for the market to mature, rather than frequently watching the market for fear of missing opportunities.

The real opponent is not the market, but emotions.

In the cryptocurrency world, what defeats you is often not a lack of technical skills or misinformation, but the loss of control over your emotions. Greed, fear, anxiety, regret—these emotions act like a virus, silently eroding your judgment.

Seeing others profit, you FOMO into buying high; facing a pullback, you panic and cut losses. What you are trading is no longer assets, but emotions. The market has no traps; what truly gets you into trouble is your own reactions.

The biggest gap between experts and ordinary people.

Don't get too excited when it rises, and don't despair when it falls.

In the crypto world, there are no straight ups and downs, only tides rising and falling.

Remember, cycles are not meant for prediction, but for waiting.

How to Avoid Fees in a High Funding Rate Environment: Funding Rate Hedging Strategy

If you want to hold positions in a high funding rate environment without paying high funding fees, you can use the **“Funding Rate Hedging”** method.

The specific operation is to open an equal-sized reverse position before the funding rate settlement. Many large exchanges (such as OKX) support a dual-position feature, allowing you to hold both long and short positions simultaneously.

It is important to note that while funding rate hedging can avoid funding fees, you still need to consider trading fees. However, if you use limit orders to enter and exit, and combine it with fee reduction policies, the overall cost is usually lower than directly paying the funding fee.

However, it is particularly important to remind that: it is not recommended to blindly hold positions. If it reaches the stop-loss position, you should decisively cut losses. Holding through 9 times may still result in liquidation on the 10th time; managing risk is always more important than hedging techniques.