Is #空投发现指南 starting to release news again? Let’s analyze briefly: Trump is eager for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to keep the long-term U.S. Treasury yield below 4.5%, but the Federal Reserve Chairman completely ignores Trump. Trump is now continuing to cut taxes to fulfill his election promises, while waiting for the government to run out of money and shut down, which will escalate the situation. Essentially, short-term debt is about to mature, and the Federal Reserve will either lower interest rates or expand its balance sheet; otherwise, the government will shut down. It happened once in 2020, and the Federal Reserve later expanded its balance sheet to resolve the issue. However, this time the situation is different from last time. Last time it was due to the pandemic. Although expanding the balance sheet solved the problem, it caused a double hit to both bonds and stocks. This time the situation is worse, compounded by the decoupling between China and the U.S., and continuing to lower interest rates or expand the balance sheet may further exacerbate soaring CPI. Let's see what happens.
Is the news starting again? Let's analyze briefly. Trump is eager for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to keep long-term US Treasury yields below 4.5%. However, the Federal Reserve Chairman completely ignores Trump. Trump is now continuing to cut taxes to fulfill his election promises, while waiting for the government to run out of money and shut down, which will escalate the situation. It's simply that short-term debt is maturing soon, and the Federal Reserve has to either cut rates or expand its balance sheet, otherwise the government will shut down. It happened once in 2020, and the Federal Reserve later expanded its balance sheet to solve the problem. However, this time the situation is different from last time. Last time was due to the pandemic; although expanding the balance sheet solved the issue, it led to a double hit on bonds and stocks. This time, the situation is worse, compounded by the decoupling between China and the US. Continuing to cut rates or expand the balance sheet may further exacerbate the skyrocketing CPI. Let’s see how it goes.
As of April 27, 2025, Sunday, the situation regarding the XRP ETF is changing, with significant progress being made in the United States and globally: **Key Developments:** * **Brazil Launches First Spot XRP ETF**: Brazil's B3 stock exchange launched the world's first spot XRP ETF on April 25, 2025, with the stock code **XRPH11**, marking a groundbreaking initiative. This ETF is managed by Hashdex and overseen by Genial Investimentos, tracking the Nasdaq XRP reference price index, and investing at least 95% of its net assets in XRP. This marks an important milestone for XRP, providing Brazilian investors with regulated and secure access. * **ProShares to Launch XRP Futures ETF in the U.S.:** ProShares will launch three XRP futures ETFs on **Wednesday, April 30, 2025**. These ETFs (UltraShort XRP ETF, Ultra XRP ETF, and Short XRP ETF) will provide U.S. investors with the opportunity to understand XRP price trends without directly owning it. While futures ETFs differ from spot ETFs, they indicate that regulators are increasingly accepting XRP as an asset class.
BTC focuses on the previous two 4-hour closing prices: 94100 and 95200. It didn't effectively break below 94100 all day yesterday, and now it is gradually testing 95200. Opening positions within the range means going long at low prices and short at high prices, with stop losses on breakouts. Since both upper and lower boundaries are very clear, the closer the price gets to the boundaries, the bolder one should be in entering positions, as the stop losses are very limited. Try to avoid opening positions in the middle of the range; it's like flipping a coin, you always want to improve your odds a bit, right? ETH is still in a range-bound market until it closes above 1850 on the 4-hour chart (at least the 1-hour chart). Currently, the stage low is continuously rising, and the highs are also continuously rising, indicating an uptrend, but not strong. Continue to observe and wait for the best entry opportunity.
BTC focuses on the previous two 4-hour closing prices: 94100 and 95200. It failed to effectively break below 94100 for the whole day yesterday, and now it is gradually testing 95200. Opening positions within the range means going long at lows and short at highs, with stop-loss on breakouts. Since both upper and lower boundaries are very clear, the closer the price gets to the boundaries, the bolder you should be in entering the market, because the stop-loss is very limited. Try to avoid opening positions in the middle of the range; it's like flipping a coin, you always hope to increase your chances a bit, right? ETH is in a consolidation phase as long as it closes above 1850 on the 4-hour chart (at least on the 1-hour chart). The current stage low is continuously rising, and the highs are also continuously rising, indicating a bullish trend, but not strong. Continue to observe and wait for the best entry opportunity.
Currently, the popularity of Ethereum is not as high as Dogecoin. Ethereum has made a lot of efforts, but the biggest problem is that it hasn't retained users. Changing from PoW to PoS means mining is no longer possible, losing global GPU users. Creating secondary networks has resulted in them fighting among themselves, seriously damaging the entire ecosystem. There has been no support for memes, causing all the gamblers to run to Solana. Upgrades are slow, and the continuous selling of coins has hurt the hearts of old players.
Currently, the popularity of Ethereum is not as high as Dogecoin. Ethereum has made a lot of efforts, but the biggest problem is that it hasn't been able to retain people. Switching from PoW to PoS means no more mining, which has lost global GPU users. Creating secondary networks has led to fragmentation, with severe infighting that has drained the entire ecosystem. There has been no support for memes, causing all the gamblers to run to Solana. Upgrades are slow, and the continuous selling of tokens has hurt the feelings of longtime players.
Brother Sun manipulates Trump's dinner? The crypto community is going to cry!
Family, who understands? Trump's dinner is just like Buffett's lunch, and there's a familiar figure behind it—Brother Sun! Back in the day, he bought the Buffett lunch, first announced it loudly, then played missing with "sudden kidney stones," and managed to skyrocket the coin price with these three tricks, definitely a marketing genius in the crypto world!
This time Brother Sun is directly appointed as Trump's crypto advisor, and I'm blindly guessing it’s another big show! According to his pattern, the plot will likely unfold like this:
Step 1: First, officially announce the dinner, hype up "dining with Trump" to the heavens, causing big players to go on a buying spree, and $TRUMP coins will skyrocket;
Step 2: As the dinner approaches, suddenly there's news of Trump "not feeling well," and the dinner is canceled! The market panics instantly, the coin price crashes, and retail investors who bought high are all trapped;
Step 3: The reversal comes! Trump suddenly appears, takes photos with major holders, and gives away a limited NFT, and $TRUMP starts skyrocketing again to harvest the second wave of retail investors!
Brother Sun is managing Trump's dinner? The crypto community is going to be crying from being cut!
Does anyone understand this, family? Trump's dinner and Buffett's lunch are practically the same routine, and behind both events is a familiar figure—Brother Sun! Back in the day, he bought the Buffett lunch, first publicly announced it, then went "missing" with a sudden "kidney stone attack," and somehow used these three tricks to skyrocket the coin price, truly a marketing genius in the crypto world!
This time, Brother Sun has directly become Trump's crypto advisor; I blindly guess it's another big show! According to his patterns, the plot is likely to unfold like this:
Step one, first officially announce the dinner, hype up "dining with Trump" to the heavens, causing big investors to go on a buying spree, and the $TRUMP coin skyrockets;
Step two, just before the dinner, suddenly announce that Trump has a "health issue," and the dinner is canceled! The market panics instantly, and the coin price crashes, trapping all the retail investors who chased the high;
Step three, the twist comes! Trump suddenly appears, takes photos with major holders, and then gives away a limited edition NFT, and the $TRUMP coin starts to soar again, harvesting the second wave of retail investors!
Brother Sun manipulates Trump's dinner? The crypto community is going to cry!
Does anyone understand? Trump's dinner and Buffett's lunch are exactly the same routine, and behind both is a familiar figure—Brother Sun! Back then, he bought Buffett's lunch, first publicly announced it, then went missing with a "sudden kidney stone" excuse, and managed to pump the coin price up with these three tricks, truly a marketing genius in the crypto world!
This time Brother Sun is directly taking the role of Trump's crypto advisor, and I blindly guess it's going to be a big show! According to his usual pattern, the plot is likely to unfold like this:
Step one, first officially announce the dinner, hype up "dining with Trump" to the sky, causing big players to frantically buy, and the $TRUMP coin skyrockets;
Step two, just before the dinner, suddenly declare that Trump has a "health issue," and the dinner is canceled! The market panics instantly, and the coin price crashes, trapping all the retail investors who chased the high;
Step three, the reversal comes! Trump suddenly appears, takes a photo with major coin holders, and then gives away a limited NFT, and $TRUMP starts to soar again, harvesting the second wave of retail investors!
The truth behind the surge, beware of traps! The market is staging an invisible battle, where both bulls and bears seem evenly matched on the surface, but in reality, the manipulators are counter-trading chips. In the past 12 hours, among the top five large transactions, there were two sell orders of $910,000 that precisely crashed the market, while there had previously been two buy orders of $2.21 million in a row. This stark contrast exposes the tug-of-war of the main funds—some are eager to sell, while others are frantically accumulating. This ebb and flow of capital is like a tug-of-war, where one side is pulling back while the other is increasing their stakes, indicating that the main funds have not yet reached a consensus. From a technical perspective, the price has formed a "double top" pattern at a critical position, a pattern that also appeared before the crash in December 2024.
The truth behind the surge, beware of traps! The market is playing out an invisible war, seemingly balanced between bulls and bears, but in reality, the big players are smashing chips at each other. In the past 12 hours, among the top five large transactions, there were two sell orders of $910,000 that precisely hit the market, while previously there were two buy orders of $2.21 million. This stark contrast reveals the tug-of-war of the main funds—some are eager to offload, while others are frantically accumulating. This ebb and flow of capital is like a tug-of-war, with one side withdrawing strength and the other side increasing bets, indicating that the main funds have not yet reached a consensus. From a technical perspective, the price has been forming a "double top" pattern at a critical position, which also appeared before the crash in December 2024.
After Bitcoin surged to a high of $100,000, it entered a correction mode, leaving many investors confused and conflicted, as they began to speculate whether this was merely a brief pause in a bull market or if the market had reached its end. Let’s analyze the key factor of Bitcoin's halving mechanism. As we know, Bitcoin's production halves every four years, and historical data shows that after the previous halvings, the market typically sees a real price peak about 1 to 1.5 years later. Based on this timeline, the end of 2025 to early 2026 is more likely to be the peak moment for the market, and the current correction seems more like a halftime break. Additionally, comparing the correction magnitude, this time the drop is only 30%, while looking back to 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin experienced significant corrections of 45% and 53%, respectively; in contrast, the current correction is not excessive. Furthermore, the miners' cost line is currently around $78,000, and if the price really drops to this level, miners will be reluctant to sell their Bitcoin due to cost considerations, which will create a certain level of price support, like a natural moat.
After Bitcoin surged to the high of 100,000 USD, it entered a correction mode, leaving many investors confused and entangled, speculating whether this is a brief pause in the bull market or if the market has reached its end. First, let’s analyze the halving mechanism of Bitcoin, a key factor. It is well known that Bitcoin's production halves every four years, and based on historical data, after the previous halvings, the market typically sees a real price peak about 1 to 1.5 years later. According to this timeline, the peak moment is more likely to be at the end of 2025 to the beginning of 2026; the current correction seems more like a halftime break. Additionally, looking at the extent of the correction, this time it has only fallen 30%, while in 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin experienced significant corrections of 45% and 53% respectively. In contrast, the current correction is not particularly exaggerated. Moreover, the miners' cost line is currently around 78,000 USD. If the price really falls to this level, miners will be reluctant to sell their Bitcoin due to cost considerations, which will, to some extent, form a price support, like a natural moat.