小贵哥
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High-Frequency Trader
1.3 Years
微博:小贵哥n
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ETH is too powerful and scary, I suggest you don't touch it and just focus on Bitcoin. The short position for Bitcoin at 103,500 is good to hold now. Liquidation is at 11.5 or above. If it goes up in price again, just admit defeat. That's it. Let's wait for a while, it can't drop in these few days. It needs to get close to the liquidation of the short position before it can drop.
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Right now it's just rising to short-squeeze. Bitcoin spot is basically in the hands of those consortiums in the US, and they can pull it up whenever they want. The entire market might only have a few million people playing. All these people are targets for harvesting. Anyway, it will go down sooner or later. For now, don’t force a short. I’m shorting a little at 103,000, adding a bit every time it rises by a thousand. I control it until 120,000 liquidation. If it can still go up, then goodbye, I'm done. That's it. I won't look for a month and see if it can go down, it's that simple.
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Waking up feels like the sky has fallen. BTC is really being operated by the consortium now. Is it really that easy to pull to 104,000? I had a standoff with him yesterday. In fact, I mentioned that at 100,000, there might be a stop loss at 104,000, and I insisted on going against him. This time, I also took a larger position. I looked at the stop loss at 102,000. If I don't stop loss, I would really lose big this time. I reopened my position. I shorted at 103,500. Let him play however he wants; I'm just going to lie flat now. Above 120,000, I'm liquidated. Holding for a few months, I don’t believe he can exceed the height of 10.8 from the previous bull market.
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Talking about BTC, I'm really a bit afraid it can't drop below 10. If it breaks 10 and stabilizes, it could at least go to 102000, or even 104000, which is a reference from the last round at 100000. So I just reduced my position a bit at 98800 because I thought it could go down a bit more. When it rebounded at 99000, I opened another long position for hedging. The ratio is 2 to 1 for shorts and longs. The short position still has a stop loss at 100200. The long position will turn into a short at 102000, and that's how it is. Currently, the market is controlled by the main forces. If the bears in the market really dare to increase their positions and unite, the main forces don't have that much capital to push it above 100000. The Bitcoin market has been manipulated by the main forces for too long. The fundamental reason is that the retail investors' funds are too scattered to resist.
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btc92000 has increased its position. The liquidation stop loss is at 106,000 with an average price of around 98,000. At this position, reduce the added amount. And then? Pay attention to your own position. If my liquidation is not enough, I can add margin. You also need to pay attention to position management.
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btc re-sent the view. At most follow the previous bull market's 10.8 pattern. However, currently, 100,000 may not be broken. If it breaks, I don't think it will exceed this position. So, if you're shorting now, your liquidation must be at least 108,000. Currently, the short position at 97,000 with 20x leverage has lost a bit but can't be considered trapped. If it goes to 102,000, then forget it. So, I have hedged. It's equivalent to reducing my position. Anyway, it's bound to go down sooner or later. Let's hold it for a while. Either it goes down to 98,000 to reduce the position, or do a hedge. The stop loss for the short position is 100,000. The long position at 102,000 turns into a short position again. Currently, the shorts are four times more than the longs.
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BTC is experiencing favorable conditions. There is a possibility of reaching 100,000. So I won't short for now. The short position is at 97,000 now. The liquidation price is 10.8, so I'll just lay flat. I will consider increasing my position at 10.2. This is under extreme conditions. If there is a pullback to 98,000, I will reduce my position. Otherwise, the risk is high. If favorable conditions push it up, it won't feel good. If there is no additional margin money, I suggest reducing some positions.
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Woke up and it's 98,000 again, nothing to say but to increase the position. The previously mentioned break-even loss can be shorted again. Make sure to manage risks. Can liquidate on 10.8.
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BTC just checked, it's not a bearish impact, not significant. It's not bullish. So if it's not bullish, it's bearish; around 96,500 I added a bit to the reduction, now it's 95,900, I can reduce my position a bit. Continuing to look below 94,000.
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The profit from BTC this time is still okay. We can reduce our position once more around 96200. The remaining will be at break-even loss. If it goes up, we might short at 98500. If it doesn't go up, we'll see 93000.
Short sell around 97500. Set your position above 110000 to avoid liquidation. This is a long-term strategy. For short-term, just short sell with a stop loss at 98500. The difference between these two strategies is that for long-term, if you open below 20x leverage, you can increase your position when the price rises. If it goes down, you profit. This requires holding for a period of time with lower risk. The other option is to open with high leverage, 50x, and set your own stop loss. If it goes down, reduce your position to take profit.
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BTC went down to 96800, taking some profits and reducing positions. The remaining position is at breakeven loss. The average price is approximately 97500.
Short sell around 97500. Set your position above 110000 to avoid liquidation. This is a long-term strategy. For short-term, just short sell with a stop loss at 98500. The difference between these two strategies is that for long-term, if you open below 20x leverage, you can increase your position when the price rises. If it goes down, you profit. This requires holding for a period of time with lower risk. The other option is to open with high leverage, 50x, and set your own stop loss. If it goes down, reduce your position to take profit.
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Short sell around 97500. Set your position above 110000 to avoid liquidation. This is a long-term strategy. For short-term, just short sell with a stop loss at 98500. The difference between these two strategies is that for long-term, if you open below 20x leverage, you can increase your position when the price rises. If it goes down, you profit. This requires holding for a period of time with lower risk. The other option is to open with high leverage, 50x, and set your own stop loss. If it goes down, reduce your position to take profit.
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BTC suggested reducing positions at 94,000 last night. But I didn't expect that political factors would directly pull it to 97,000. Now it is equivalent to spitting back some of the profits because I increased my position by 3% at 96,000, although it is not much. Now 97,000 is still adding a little bit, still the previous strategy. The policy can only increase temporarily, and it will fall after it passes. It is still better to add a little position for every 1,000 increase. It is good that the leverage is not high this time. The liquidation can be controlled above 110,000
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BTC felt that the 94000 position went up multiple times yesterday, so I reduced my position again. Then this morning, I added a small position at 95000 in the order. Now it has returned to 94000. Next, we will see if the US stocks can go down and bring it down with them. If it still doesn't go down tonight, I will continue to reduce my position, and if there is a rebound, I might consider shorting at around 9.6. If it breaks below 93000, then it will be between 91000-92000. Let's see how it goes.
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BTC just dropped to 94000 and didn't go down further. It rebounded, so at this position I just reduced to 93700. You all should reduce a bit now. Then buy back at 95000. The trend this week is down.
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In the afternoon, I said that BTC couldn't hold at 94,000. The next step is to reduce positions at 92,000. Then let's see if it breaks 90. If it goes down, it will follow the previous path, taking it step by step, no rush.
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On May 3rd, I said that if it breaks 96,000, then 94,000 will likely break as well. Now at 93,800, I will reduce my position by a total of 50%. Taking profits now. The remaining position will look for a rebound between 92,000-91,000 with a stop loss at 96,000. I will short at 97,000. My current average price is above 96,000.
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By morning, over 94200 was already empty. I shorted 25% at 94400, and now that I haven't reduced, there is still profit. The remaining position at 93000 is at 25%, then looking down at 91000. On the upside, I will enter short in batches on the rebound.
I said for the short position, the first step is to reduce part of the position at 95000 to take profits. If it rebounds to 96000, then add back half, and later still based on what was previously said, add a bit of position for every rise of a thousand. At this position, do not chase long, control the position well, and slowly work on it; over time, it will eventually go down. Currently, there's a downward trend over the weekend. Looking bearish on Monday. Let's start at 94000 and reduce the position.
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I said for the short position, the first step is to reduce part of the position at 95000 to take profits. If it rebounds to 96000, then add back half, and later still based on what was previously said, add a bit of position for every rise of a thousand. At this position, do not chase long, control the position well, and slowly work on it; over time, it will eventually go down. Currently, there's a downward trend over the weekend. Looking bearish on Monday. Let's start at 94000 and reduce the position.
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