兰亭-彭哥

📝This is the cryptocurrency support and resistance chart for tonight's live broadcast to communicate with everyone. The market is highly volatile, so please pay attention to investment risks. Control your position well and learn to wait for the right opportunity. Thank you for your companionship along the way.
📢It is important to clarify that all cryptocurrency analyses mentioned in the live broadcast represent personal opinions only and do not constitute any investment advice!

【Is Powell's departure a panacea? Institutions collectively criticize Trump, 'If Powell is moved, the dollar is done for!'】
1. Italian regional bank Cassa Lombarda: If Trump really fires Powell, it will shake the reliability of the dollar as a global reserve currency.
2. Saxo Bank: If the new Federal Reserve chairman colludes with Trump to ignore inflation pressures and insists on lowering short-term interest rates, it will be harmful to the dollar in the long run.
3. Deutsche Bank: If Powell is replaced, the trade-weighted dollar will plummet 3%-4% within 24 hours, and the fixed income market will experience a sell-off of 30-40 basis points.
4. Monex Group: If Trump or his administration attempts to harm the independence and authority of the Federal Reserve in any way, it will be extremely negative for the dollar.
5. 'Bond King' Gross: The key is not the timing of Powell's replacement, but the choice of successor. If the new chairman can gradually influence FOMC decisions, the dollar will weaken.
6. Dutch Bank: If Trump again suggests firing Powell, the dollar will face a larger scale of sell-off.
7. Mitsubishi UFJ: If Trump fires Powell, it will severely undermine investors' confidence in the dollar. Even if his decision to fire Powell is later overturned by the courts, the damage to confidence in the dollar will be lasting.
Other Opinions
1. JPMorgan: The sustained independence of the Federal Reserve is absolutely crucial; intervening in Federal Reserve decisions often leads to adverse consequences.
2. Wolfe Research: Firing Powell will have a significant negative impact on the market, potentially leading to a stock market sell-off and a spike in long-term yields.
3. Wells Fargo: The market's drastic reaction yesterday may make the Trump administration realize that replacing Powell is not a 'cure-all' for economic issues.
4. Wealth management firm Murphy & Sylvest: Trump's actions serve no purpose other than to disrupt the market; replacing Powell may not solve the problem.
5. Interactive Brokers: The market is concerned that the independence of the Federal Reserve may be compromised; some traders may be willing to see rate cuts, but are not willing to see the Federal Reserve lose its independence; yesterday's dollar plunge was to be expected.
6. Investment bank Evercore: Firing Powell is 'one of the worst ideas.' Economies of countries where central banks are politically manipulated often perform poorly, as seen in Argentina and Turkey, where inflation has reached double digits in recent years.

US Crypto Bill Passed ✅
On the evening of July 16 local time, the US House of Representatives passed a procedural vote on the cryptocurrency bill with a result of 217 votes in favor and 212 against, allowing the bill to enter the debate process. This vote lasted over 8 hours, setting a record for the longest voting time since the implementation of the electronic voting system.

Core Controversies
• SEC and CFTC in a jurisdictional tug-of-war
• Stablecoin regulatory requirements for 1:1 dollar reserves and bank licenses
• Anti-CBDC provisions reflect bipartisan differences in digital financial infrastructure concepts

Market Impact and Opportunities
Blockchain concept stocks surged by 45%, the Bitcoin volatility index decreased by 12%, and the funding rate fully rebounded to over 0.05%, indicating that a structural market is forming. It is recommended to focus on compliance-themed targets and avoid projects with strong centralized financial attributes.

Investor Sentiment
72% of users expect a "compliance spring," while 58% worry about the disappearance of regulatory arbitrage opportunities. Community discussions show that the market is transitioning from technological faith to compliance awareness, and it is advised to closely monitor the consolidated text of the bill on the evening of July 17 and adjust investment strategies accordingly.

This week is "Crypto Week" in the US Congress, reviewing three key cryptocurrency legislations including the GENIUS Act and the CLARITY Act, all of which are supported by President Trump. Previously, on July 15 local time, the procedural vote in the House failed due to more than 10 Republican members voting against it, preventing the House from advancing the bill's review process. However, after Trump intervened to coordinate, the situation reversed.

Among these three bills, the GENIUS Act aims to establish a regulatory framework for stablecoins; the CLARITY Act intends to clarify the regulatory authority over cryptocurrencies between the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); and the Anti-Central Bank Digital Currency Monitoring National Act prohibits the Federal Reserve from issuing central bank digital currency (CBDC).

📝 Trump Denies Drafting Letter to Dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Powell
Core Event On July 16, 2025, President Trump publicly denied drafting a letter to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, stating that "there are currently no plans to take any action," but criticized Powell for his "poor job performance" and hinted at possible personnel changes within 8 months.
Event Summary
Trump's Position Trump explicitly stated in response to media reports about "dismissing Powell" that he had not drafted a dismissal letter, but acknowledged discussing personnel changes with lawmakers. He said there is a "high probability he will not dismiss Powell, unless fraud is proven," while repeatedly accusing Powell of not effectively performing his duties and expressing hope that he would resign voluntarily.
Event Background Recently, Trump has pressured Powell citing budget overruns for the renovation of the Federal Reserve headquarters (increasing from $1.9 billion to $2.5 billion), accusing him of "false statements" and "violations." Powell responded that the renovation was to meet safety requirements and emphasized the independence of the Federal Reserve. White House economic adviser Hassett and others support Trump's position that he "has the right to dismiss Powell."
Market Reaction Dismissal rumors initially triggered a plunge in U.S. stock markets, a rise in gold, and fluctuations in the dollar, but after Trump's clarification, market sentiment eased, and U.S. stocks ultimately closed higher. Analysts point out that if Trump forcibly removes Powell, it could impact the credibility of the dollar and trigger political turmoil.
Legal and Political Controversy The Federal Reserve Chairman's term lasts until May 2026, and legally the president lacks the authority to directly dismiss him. Trump's actions have been criticized as a threat to the independence of the Federal Reserve, potentially undermining global confidence in U.S. dollar policies and exacerbating domestic political struggles.

$BTC
7.17 BTC Fluctuation 12-hour Level Death Cross
6/8-hour Level Still High Short
Pay attention to whether the 30/45-minute level can form a resonance during the day
Short-term support at 117766, 116400, 115500
Above 120600, 122000
Do not act without seeing the pattern, do not open positions without stop-loss
(The above content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice)

$ETH
ETH5/3 Day Level One-Sided 4 Hour Level Volume
45 Minute Level High Short
Time and Space Point 3450
Upper Resistance 3438 3454 3487 3535
Lower Support 3337 3302 3281 3232
Do not act without a clear pattern; do not open a position without a stop loss
(The above content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice)

Intraday support and resistance reference #BTC #ETH

🔥Hong Kong's First Bitcoin ETF is About to be Listed
Product and Market Overview
• Value Partners Bitcoin ETF (02818) will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on July 18, 2025
• Adopts a dual cash/physical subscription and redemption mechanism, anchored to the CME CF Bitcoin Index
• The issuer has obtained multiple financial licenses and is cooperating with HashKey Exchange to build a compliant ecosystem
Regulation and Investment Opportunities
• Hong Kong SFC's "LEAP" strategy creates a friendly regulatory environment, with obvious advantages compared to other Asian regions
• Bitcoin price stabilizes at $118,000, with continuous inflow of institutional funds
Prospects and Risk Analysis
• It is estimated that the assets under management in the first year will reach 5 billion US dollars, becoming a hub connecting Eastern and Western capital
• Need to pay attention to the impact of ETF subscription and redemption on spot liquidity and possible policy adjustment risks
• Chinese-funded securities firms are accelerating the layout of virtual asset business, and related stocks have increased by 12.3%
What does the listing of Hong Kong's first Bitcoin ETF mean?
It marks an important step for Hong Kong in the field of digital assets, further consolidating its position as an international financial center in the integration and development of financial innovation and digital assets. Previously, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) has relaxed restrictions on virtual asset spot ETF products including Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, and approved the issuance applications of many companies, and the listing of Value Partners Bitcoin ETF is the actual implementation result of these policy promotions.
From the investor's point of view, it provides local and global investors with a new, convenient and compliant investment channel. Investors can use existing securities accounts to participate in transactions through cash or physical subscription and redemption methods, which lowers the threshold for investing in Bitcoin, broadens the range of investment portfolio choices, and attracts more traditional investors to enter the cryptocurrency market.
For the market, it enriches Hong Kong's digital asset investment tool matrix, is expected to attract more funds to flow into Hong Kong's digital asset market, enhance market liquidity and activity, promote the development of related financial services industries, and will also prompt market participants to continuously improve their professional capabilities and risk management levels, laying the foundation for the launch of more innovative digital asset products in the future, and promoting the development of Hong Kong's digital asset market towards a more mature and standardized direction.

$BTC's resistance level given in the morning has been perfectly reached!!! There will be no live broadcast for tonight's public class, so don't run empty, everyone～. If you want to listen to the public, check the host's personal signature #BTC hits a new high again

True or False, Will Federal Reserve Chairman Powell Be Fired?
[Currently, there is no definitive news indicating that Powell is about to be fired]
Key Events
The renovation budget for the Federal Reserve headquarters increased from $1.9 billion to $2.5 billion, and the overspending controversy has evolved into a political game, with the Trump administration leveraging this to pressure Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to resign, attempting to push for interest rate cuts.
Latest Developments
July 13, 2025: The Federal Reserve's official website added a 'Frequently Asked Questions' page, denying the existence of luxurious facilities such as VIP restaurants, elevators, and new water features, emphasizing that the renovation project is compliant and that cost overruns stem from design adjustments and unforeseen factors.
On the same day: Trump publicly calls for Powell's resignation, and White House economic advisors state that if it is confirmed that Powell misled Congress, Trump has the authority to fire him.
July 14: Deutsche Bank warns that the risk of Powell being dismissed may be underestimated, potentially triggering a sell-off of the dollar and government bonds.
Event Context
2021: The Federal Reserve headquarters renovation plan was approved by the National Capital Planning Commission, aimed at consolidating operations and preserving historic buildings.
2023: The project budget increased to $1.9 billion, and the annual budget requires approval from the Federal Reserve Board.
April 2025: The Washington Post exposed that renovation costs exceeded the budget by 30% to $2.5 billion, raising public concern.
June 25, 2025: Powell acknowledged the cost overruns during a Congressional hearing but refuted claims of 'luxurious renovations', stating that some reports are misleading.
July 10, 2025: White House Office of Management and Budget Director Vought wrote to Powell, questioning the compliance of the renovation project and requesting a response to 11 questions within 7 days.
July 11, 2025: The Federal Reserve's official website published an explanation of the renovation project, with the chair of the boards of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Pulte, stating that Powell 'considering resignation' is the 'right decision'.
July 13, 2025: Trump again publicly pressures Powell, and the Federal Reserve's official website provides a detailed response to the reasons for the cost overruns and design disputes.
However, according to U.S. law, the Federal Reserve enjoys a high degree of independence, and the President typically does not possess the statutory authority to unilaterally dismiss the Federal Reserve Chairman. Powell's term is set to end in May 2026, and he has previously stated that Trump does not have the legal authority to remove him from office and that he will serve until his term ends.

Today's key financial data and events to watch:
Wednesday, July 16, 2025

$ETH
7.16 ETH daily volume contraction
8-hour level golden cross, but volume is insufficient
6-hour level is currently at a high; focus on the 4-hour level
Resistance at 3160, first resistance level at 3215, 3252, 3281
Support at 3072, 3030, 2972
Do not act without a clear pattern, do not open positions without a stop-loss
(The above content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice)

$BTC
7.16 BTC Sideways Adjustment Pay attention to whether a death cross forms in 12 hours
(4-hour level 12 o'clock closing line whether an invisible formation occurs)
2-hour level invisible 1-hour level not yet up to water
Do not guess the top above 122000 125000 128100 131200
Short-term upper levels during the day 118156 119208 120600
Support below 117789 116090 114900
Do not act without a pattern, do not open positions without stop-loss
(The above content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice)

Intraday support and resistance reference #BTC #ETH

Ethereum Sees Influx of Institutional Funds, Market Performance Strong!
Since 2025, Ethereum has experienced a significant influx of institutional funds, a phenomenon that has garnered widespread attention in the market. Here's an overview of the situation:
Scale and Direction of Fund Inflow:
Significant ETF Fund Inflow: Ethereum ETFs have performed strongly recently, with a net inflow of $2.47 billion into US spot ETH ETFs in the first two weeks of July. In the week of July 13, Ethereum ETFs saw a net inflow of $907.99 million, a new historical high, with a single-day inflow of $383.1 million on July 10, the highest single-day net inflow record.
Increased Exchange Inflows: Recently, institutions such as Polychain Capital, Galaxy Digital, and B2C2 have collectively transferred over 24,000 Ethereum to exchanges, worth over $40 million. Among them, Galaxy Digital deposited 12,500 ETH, and Polychain Capital deposited 5,700 ETH.
Surge in Institutional Wallet Holdings: Coinbase's latest research report shows that ETH holdings in institutional investor wallet addresses have surged by 470,000 in the past 30 days, worth over $1.9 billion.
Institutional Fund Movements:
• ETF Net Inflow for Nine Consecutive Weeks, Peaking at $908 Million
• BlackRock ETHA Increased Holdings by Over $156 Million in a Single Week
• Leading Institutions Accumulated 550,000 ETH (Approximately $1.65 Billion) in 30 Days
• Total Staked Amount Exceeded the Historical Milestone of 32 Million
Reasons for Institutional Influx:
Improved Regulatory Environment: The US SEC's attitude has changed, with the new chairman reversing the previous chairman's suppression of DeFi, explicitly stating that ETH is not a security, and supporting developer innovation. The passage of the GENIUS Act establishes a stablecoin regulatory framework, and the advancement of the CLARITY Act clarifies ETH as a "digital commodity" regulated by the CFTC, clearing the way for institutional entry.
Ethereum Ecosystem Development: The advancement of Ethereum 2.0 has improved its performance and scalability, DeFi protocols have locked in value exceeding trillion-dollar levels, and the NFT and metaverse economies have also greatly increased demand for ETH, continuously enhancing Ethereum's application scenarios and value, attracting institutional capital allocation.
Impact:
Driving Price Increases: The large influx of institutional funds has provided strong support for the price of Ethereum. The price of Ethereum rose by over 17% in early July and broke through the $3,000 mark on July 11.

🐮 Really impressive
The price of Bitcoin has first broken through $120,000, setting a new historical high!
On July 14, 2025, the price of Bitcoin first crossed the $120,000 mark, creating a historical new high. As of approximately 11:35 AM Beijing time on July 14, Bitcoin surged over $1,000 in just ten minutes, strongly overcoming the $120,000 threshold, and the upward trend continued, with the latest trading around $122,323.18 during the Asian session, up about 3.72% for the day. Subsequently, Bitcoin continued to rise, breaking through $123,000 during the session.
Reasons for the rise
"Cryptocurrency Week" promotion: The U.S. Congress will welcome "Cryptocurrency Week" from July 14 to 18, planning to review three key pieces of cryptocurrency legislation, including the CLARITY Act, the Anti-Central Bank Digital Currency Regulatory National Act, and the GENIUS Act. This has boosted investor confidence in the prospects of cryptocurrencies.
Short positions liquidation: Cryptocurrency short positions were liquidated last weekend. According to data from Coinglass, traders who shorted Bitcoin suffered heavy losses, with over $1 billion in positions being liquidated, which propelled the latest surge in Bitcoin.
Strong institutional demand: Institutional investors continue to buy Bitcoin, and ETF funds are also flowing in. Last week, investors injected over $2.7 billion into U.S. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), marking the fifth-largest weekly net inflow since their launch in January 2024. These ETFs currently manage assets totaling approximately $151 billion.
Shift in market perception: The market's view of Bitcoin is maturing, no longer seeing it merely as a speculative asset, but as a macro hedge tool and a structurally scarce store of value. This shift in perception has attracted more investors, enhancing market stability and buying power.
Market overview
• Bitcoin price: $122,092.81, 24-hour increase +2.86%
• Market capitalization surpassed $2.42 trillion, trading volume reached $11.02 billion
• Created historical new high of $123,091, entering the "six-figure era"
Driving factors
• Institutional capital: BlackRock ETF manages $88 billion, Japan's Metaplanet holds 16,352 BTC
• Macroeconomic environment: Global liquidity increased by $5 trillion, central bank interest rate cut cycle begins
• Technical breakthrough: Broke through the key resistance level of $120,000, RSI shows overbought but momentum continues

$ETH
ETH market high short 5-day moving average level crosses up
3/4/6/8 hour level high short death cross
Upper resistance 3004 3053 3100 3156
Lower support 2972 2920 2880 2840
Do not take action without seeing the pattern, do not open positions without stop-loss
(The above content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice)

$BTC
On July 15th, the overall BTC market is bearish.
The 3/4/6 hour levels show a bearish cross; pay attention to the bottom formation on the 30/45 minute levels.
Short-term support at 118800, 117300, 116600.
Upper resistance at 120500, 122000, 123000.
Don't act without a clear pattern, and don't open positions without stop-loss.
(The above content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.)