汤姆仲
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Total cryptocurrency market capitalization: $2.67 trillion,
Bitcoin market cap share: 63%, reaching a nearly two-year high.
The market cap of altcoins has significantly shrunk: market cap share has dropped to less than 37%, indicating that market funds are returning to "certainty," with speculation clearly decreasing.
【Bitcoin Market Cap Share Trend Chart (Last 6 Months)】
📈Chart description:
Bitcoin's market cap share has risen from about 50% six months ago to 63%, indicating that the current rise is not a widespread bull market but rather a structurally driven market led by Bitcoin.#比特币走势分析
Bitcoin market cap share: 63%, reaching a nearly two-year high.
The market cap of altcoins has significantly shrunk: market cap share has dropped to less than 37%, indicating that market funds are returning to "certainty," with speculation clearly decreasing.
【Bitcoin Market Cap Share Trend Chart (Last 6 Months)】
📈Chart description:
Bitcoin's market cap share has risen from about 50% six months ago to 63%, indicating that the current rise is not a widespread bull market but rather a structurally driven market led by Bitcoin.#比特币走势分析
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Reuters Report: China is Discussing New Regulations for Cryptocurrency Disposal
In the current context of the global cryptocurrency market gradually moving towards compliance, new trends in China's regulation of virtual assets have quietly emerged. According to a report by Reuters on April 17, 2025, the Chinese government is discussing how to establish more systematic rules to regulate local governments' handling of confiscated cryptocurrency assets.
This is a complex issue involving law, finance, technology, and sovereignty boundaries. Although relevant rules have yet to be introduced, several key pieces of information have surfaced in the reports, drawing significant attention from the industry.
Local governments have previously resold cryptocurrency assets through private companies.
This is a complex issue involving law, finance, technology, and sovereignty boundaries. Although relevant rules have yet to be introduced, several key pieces of information have surfaced in the reports, drawing significant attention from the industry.
Local governments have previously resold cryptocurrency assets through private companies.
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Do delistings of Chinese concept stocks equal a financial nuclear explosion? Don't be scared by the 'dollar arsenal theory' | Tom Zhong dissects the situation
#Logic
Recently, a widely circulated article claimed: 'If Chinese concept stocks are collectively sold off by Wall Street, China's dollar reserves will be instantly depleted, the renminbi defense line will completely collapse, and the countdown to a financial nuclear bomb has begun!'
Doesn't it sound quite horrifying?
Let's stay calm and dismantle the logic of this 'doomsday theory' together to see if there is any real substance, or if it is just another round of 'financial scare tactics'.
1. 'Does the dollar arsenal support the renminbi?' — Concept substitution.
The original text states that China's $3.1 trillion in dollar reserves is equivalent to leveraging 300 trillion renminbi in market circulation, which is equivalent to '1 dollar supporting 100 renminbi'.
Recently, a widely circulated article claimed: 'If Chinese concept stocks are collectively sold off by Wall Street, China's dollar reserves will be instantly depleted, the renminbi defense line will completely collapse, and the countdown to a financial nuclear bomb has begun!'
Doesn't it sound quite horrifying?
Let's stay calm and dismantle the logic of this 'doomsday theory' together to see if there is any real substance, or if it is just another round of 'financial scare tactics'.
1. 'Does the dollar arsenal support the renminbi?' — Concept substitution.
The original text states that China's $3.1 trillion in dollar reserves is equivalent to leveraging 300 trillion renminbi in market circulation, which is equivalent to '1 dollar supporting 100 renminbi'.
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As of April 10, 2025, significant progress has been made in tariff negotiations between the United States and Vietnam, with both sides striving to alleviate tensions arising from the trade surplus. #特朗普暂停新关税 #加密市场反弹
⸻
🇺🇸 The United States suspends the 46% tariff on Vietnam
After a meeting between Vietnamese Deputy Prime Minister Hu Duc Phu and U.S. Trade Representative Jamison Greer in Washington, the United States decided to suspend the 46% "reciprocal" tariff that was set to take effect on April 9. Both sides agreed to initiate trade agreement negotiations aimed at eliminating non-tariff barriers and deepening bilateral economic cooperation.  
⸻
🇻🇳 Vietnam proposes to reduce tariffs on U.S. goods to zero
The Vietnamese government expressed its willingness to reduce tariffs on U.S. goods to zero in exchange for the United States lifting high tariffs on Vietnamese exports. Vietnamese Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Pham Minh Chinh proposed this during a meeting with the U.S. Ambassador and requested that the implementation of the new tariffs be postponed for 45 days.  
⸻
📦 Vietnam expands imports from the U.S. to balance trade
To reduce the trade surplus with the U.S., Vietnam plans to increase imports from the United States, including defense and security products. Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh stated during a cabinet meeting that the delivery of aircraft ordered from the U.S. would be expedited, and monetary policy, exchange rates, and non-tariff barriers would be reviewed to ensure that the origin labeling of export products meets requirements.  
⸻
⸻
🇺🇸 The United States suspends the 46% tariff on Vietnam
After a meeting between Vietnamese Deputy Prime Minister Hu Duc Phu and U.S. Trade Representative Jamison Greer in Washington, the United States decided to suspend the 46% "reciprocal" tariff that was set to take effect on April 9. Both sides agreed to initiate trade agreement negotiations aimed at eliminating non-tariff barriers and deepening bilateral economic cooperation.  
⸻
🇻🇳 Vietnam proposes to reduce tariffs on U.S. goods to zero
The Vietnamese government expressed its willingness to reduce tariffs on U.S. goods to zero in exchange for the United States lifting high tariffs on Vietnamese exports. Vietnamese Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Pham Minh Chinh proposed this during a meeting with the U.S. Ambassador and requested that the implementation of the new tariffs be postponed for 45 days.  
⸻
📦 Vietnam expands imports from the U.S. to balance trade
To reduce the trade surplus with the U.S., Vietnam plans to increase imports from the United States, including defense and security products. Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh stated during a cabinet meeting that the delivery of aircraft ordered from the U.S. would be expedited, and monetary policy, exchange rates, and non-tariff barriers would be reviewed to ensure that the origin labeling of export products meets requirements.  
⸻
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Analyze the Real Impact of U.S. Tariffs on Chinese Goods on the U.S. Market
Let's specifically analyze based on current facts, focusing on the characteristics of Chinese exported goods and the feasibility of alternative options.
### Fact Basis
- Policy: On April 8, 2025, Trump imposed a 125% tariff on Chinese goods, while other countries delayed tax increases for 90 days.
- Market Reaction: U.S. stocks surged on April 9.
- Characteristics of Chinese Exports: In 2024, the U.S. will import about $450 billion from China, mainly low-priced goods (clothing, toys, consumer electronics, etc.).
1. 'Most of China's exports are low-priced goods, and even with a doubled tax, they are still comparable to or even lower than normal U.S. goods prices.'
### Fact Basis
- Policy: On April 8, 2025, Trump imposed a 125% tariff on Chinese goods, while other countries delayed tax increases for 90 days.
- Market Reaction: U.S. stocks surged on April 9.
- Characteristics of Chinese Exports: In 2024, the U.S. will import about $450 billion from China, mainly low-priced goods (clothing, toys, consumer electronics, etc.).
1. 'Most of China's exports are low-priced goods, and even with a doubled tax, they are still comparable to or even lower than normal U.S. goods prices.'
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Problem Type
Manifestation
Danger Level
False Analogy
"1 dollar leverages 100 yuan"
Medium (misleading cognition)
Incorrect Causality
"Chinese concept stocks delisting → dollar depletion → yuan collapse"
High (main logic is untenable)
Extreme Assumption
Cascading black swan combination
High (incites panic)
Information Packaging
Portraying existing policies as signs of crisis
Medium (easily misunderstood)
Manifestation
Danger Level
False Analogy
"1 dollar leverages 100 yuan"
Medium (misleading cognition)
Incorrect Causality
"Chinese concept stocks delisting → dollar depletion → yuan collapse"
High (main logic is untenable)
Extreme Assumption
Cascading black swan combination
High (incites panic)
Information Packaging
Portraying existing policies as signs of crisis
Medium (easily misunderstood)
The Deadly Crisis of the Dollar Arsenal: A Collective Delisting of Chinese Concept Stocks Will Trigger Nuclear Financial Consequences
China holds $3.1 trillion in US dollar reserves, which seems substantial but actually conceals a shocking financial truth—this 'dollar arsenal' needs to support over 300 trillion yuan in market circulation. This means that each $1 has to bear the circulation responsibility of 100 yuan, which is four times higher than the international warning line!
The fuse of the financial time bomb
Currently, the lifeline maintaining the value of the yuan relies entirely on two blood transfusion channels:
Annual trade surplus earned globally (about $500 billion) and continuous blood transfusion from international capital (US stock financing + real investment)
However, if Wall Street begins to collectively sell off Chinese concept stocks, it will trigger three devastating shockwaves:
The fuse of the financial time bomb
Currently, the lifeline maintaining the value of the yuan relies entirely on two blood transfusion channels:
Annual trade surplus earned globally (about $500 billion) and continuous blood transfusion from international capital (US stock financing + real investment)
However, if Wall Street begins to collectively sell off Chinese concept stocks, it will trigger three devastating shockwaves:
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