胡明谦

The bearish trend continues, and the rebound is weak, hiding the risk of breakdown
　　On Thursday evening, Bitcoin once again experienced a significant decline, pulling back from around 114000 to 112033, where it stopped falling. Although there was a slight rebound afterward, the strength was limited; Ethereum also retraced to around 4205 to stop falling. During Thursday, Lao Hu repeatedly reminded everyone to position short, with Bitcoin shorts capturing 1500 points of space and Ethereum gaining over 90 points. Other short-term trades won't be detailed. Friends who have followed Lao Hu's thinking recently have basically reaped significant rewards. #BTC #ETH
　　From an overall market perspective, the downward wave that started from the high point of 124500 shows a stair-step downward structure characterized by lower rebound highs and refreshed lower lows, with each rebound high lower than the previous rebound peak. The bullish attack momentum continues to weaken, and the downward segment keeps refreshing lower levels, presenting a clear rhythm of breakdown followed by continuation. The structure and volume characteristics of the bearish trend have not shown any reversal signals; the rebound is merely a continuation of the decline, and maintaining high shorts remains the optimal strategy.
　　Operational Suggestions
　　Short Bitcoin around 113000, with a target of 110000
　　Short Ethereum around 4280, with a target of 4150

Today has consistently maintained a firm view on the market. Currently, the index has reached 2200 points, with a near 100-point increase. Friends who are following can take some profits first, and we will see how this pullback continues. #BTC #ETH

The afternoon thoughts indicate that the current big cake has moved over 800 points, with a space of over 60 points in posture. The reminder from the morning session about the fluctuations not changing direction and the bears accumulating strength—are we now stepping in rhythm? #BTC #ETH

Bitcoin and Ethereum welcomed a strong rebound at midnight yesterday, but the continuation of the morning rebound showed weak performance. Overall, it is still oscillating around the range. This type of slow oscillation is not a signal of a trend reversal, and the core pattern of the bearish trend has not changed. From the 4-hour cycle perspective, the Bollinger Bands are beginning to show a contraction state, with prices repeatedly contending and meandering between the upper and lower bands, which is essentially building momentum for further consolidation. Combined with the overall market analysis, it is more inclined to break down further after consolidation, opening up new adjustment space. In the afternoon operation, Bitcoin can focus on short positions around 114500, with the first target set at 112500; for Ethereum, pay attention to short opportunities around 4320, with a target temporarily set at around 4150. #BTC #ETH

Bitcoin and Ethereum welcomed a strong rebound at midnight yesterday, but the continuation of the morning rebound showed weak performance, overall still oscillating around the range. This kind of tug-of-war slow oscillation trend is not a signal of a trend reversal, and the core pattern of the bearish trend has not changed. From the 4-hour cycle perspective, the Bollinger Bands have started to show a narrowing state, with prices repeatedly contesting and zigzagging between the upper and lower bands, which is essentially building momentum for further consolidation. Combined with the overall market analysis, it is more inclined to break down further after consolidation, opening new adjustment space. In the afternoon, for operations, Bitcoin can focus on short positions around 114500, with the first target looking at 112500; for Ethereum, focus on short position opportunities around 4320, with the target temporarily looking at around 4150. #BTC #ETH

　　4-hour level analysis shows that the price has continuously declined from a high level, forming a clear downward trend. The Bollinger Bands are diverging downwards, with a significant resistance at the middle band. Recently, the price has slightly rebounded from the lower band but is under pressure at the middle band, remaining in a downward channel, and the bearish trend structure has not been broken. At the same time, combining with Lao Hu's analysis approach from early morning, Bitcoin needs to firmly stand above 114,500, and Ether needs to stabilize at 4,340 for a short-term continuation of the rebound to be possible. Whether it can effectively maintain this position still requires further observation and verification. #BTC #ETH
　　Overall, the price's downward trend from a high point is clear, with no effective reversal signals. The short-term rebound is under dual pressure from the Bollinger middle band and the previous downward trend line, and the rebound volume is insufficient, indicating a weak willingness to follow the bullish trend. If the price cannot quickly break through and stabilize above the Bollinger middle band, it is highly likely to continue the previous downward trend, testing the lower band or even lower positions again. Although there is a rebound in the current market, the core logic of the bearish trend remains unchanged, and the probability of further decline after the rebound is significant. In terms of operations, one can layout short positions relying on the resistance at the middle band, while also being cautious of short-term rebounds near the support below.
　　Operation suggestions
　　Bitcoin near 114,500 short, target 112,500
　　Ether near 4,350 short, target 4,150

Early morning pancake short fabric orange gained 973 points of space! From the current trend, the multi-directional tests on the hourly upper track have not achieved effective breakthroughs, and the upward momentum appears somewhat lacking in the short term. Therefore, the thinking of continuing is still valid, just pay attention to defense. #BTC #ETH

The thoughts at dawn have just been updated, and the market is also giving old Hu some face. Currently, the big pancake has moved out 900 points, and the demeanor is at 80 points, giving Li some space. Friends who are following can take some profits first, and we'll see how this pullback continues later #BTC #ETH

8.21 Early Morning Technical Analysis
On Wednesday evening, Bitcoin first dipped from the vicinity of 113900 to the recent low of 112301, and then quickly rebounded, reaching a high of 114279, currently oscillating around 114000. Ethereum moved in synchronization, quickly retracing from around 4220 to 4104, then rebounding to around 4306, currently oscillating near 4300. This back-and-forth washout of long and short positions tests the grasp of entry timing. Lao Hu's short position during the day has cumulatively gained nearly 3000 points in Bitcoin, and over 200 points in Ethereum; however, the short order set in the evening was swept away by a sudden surge, resulting in small losses in both Bitcoin and Ethereum. Therefore, Lao Hu has always emphasized that strict defense is necessary to seek victory steadily. #BTC #ETH
From an overall market perspective, Bitcoin currently shows a slight rebound trend, and we must pay close attention to whether it can stabilize above 114500. If it can stabilize, a short-term halt in the decline is possible, with a high probability of testing the resistance level at 117000; conversely, if it fails to stabilize, we need to watch the strength of the pullback. At that time, we can look at whether the position at 112000 can hold. For Ethereum, after retracing to 4100 in the evening, it faced resistance and stagnation around 4300. We need to observe whether it can hold above 4300, as well as the previously declined rebound high point at 4340. If it cannot stabilize within the 4300-4340 range, this rebound should be treated as a continuation of the decline, and further drops are expected, with support levels to watch at 4060 and 4000. The current price is oscillating below the key resistance level; conservative traders may choose to wait and see, while aggressive traders can still consider setting short positions, but must remember to strictly set stop losses.
Trading Suggestions
Short Bitcoin around 114300, with a target initially set at 112500.
Short Ethereum around 4320, with a target at approximately 4100.

Today, Lao Hu's short selling strategy in the morning has once again delivered solid results! Whether repeatedly emphasized in the live broadcast or clearly explained in the posts, it has been communicated clearly to everyone. The space for Bitcoin at 1600 points and Ethereum at 120 points has genuinely been provided to all friends who followed along!
#BTC #ETH
At this moment, such market conditions test the control over the timing of entry; if you still can't find the right direction, don't hesitate, just follow Lao Hu's rhythm directly. The direction is clear, and stability will follow!

In the early morning live broadcast, I emphasized to everyone that the market will experience a slight rebound for correction, but I do not recommend participating in this long position. In the afternoon, the market is as expected, with Bitcoin rebounding to around 113800 and Ethereum rebounding to around 4200, but neither has achieved effective continuation. This also indicates that this wave of rebound is basically over. This is also near the entry point for short positions that Lao Hu provided in the morning thoughts. Those who have already joined can hold patiently and wait for the market to further decline. #BTC #ETH

8.20 Morning Thoughts #BTC #ETH
The thoughts from early morning have been validated again, with Bitcoin touching a low near 112500, while Ethereum simultaneously pulled back to its early morning low near 4060, providing a maximum space of 1500 points and 140 points for friends who followed along. During the live broadcast in the early morning, everyone was reminded to pay close attention to the support performance near 4060. From the current situation, although this position shows some support, the rebound strength remains weak, so it is still not recommended to enter long positions.
Looking at the 4-hour level, after the price surged to 124545, it significantly retraced, forming a head and shoulders reversal pattern; the subsequent rebound momentum is very weak, facing resistance near the middle band of the Bollinger Bands before declining again. The price has consecutively broken below previous key support levels, and after breaking, there has been no effective rebound, but rather an accelerating downward trend. The opening of the Bollinger Bands continues to expand downwards, with the middle and lower bands diverging downwards, clearly forming a downward channel. In terms of technical indicators, the MACD histogram continues to operate below the zero axis, with the DIF and DEA maintaining a bearish arrangement, further confirming that the short-term bearish trend is still continuing. If the rebound strength remains weak, the price may further test lower levels, so for intraday operations, pay attention to the rebound strength, focusing on a rebound from high positions.
Operation suggestion: around 113800—114200, target focus on 111800
Range: 4170—4200, target focus on 4060, break to see 3920

It is recommended to gradually reduce short positions; there is still downward space at low levels, and it is not advisable to take a long position for now. On Thursday, the tendency is still towards a downward trend, and the current downward momentum of Bitcoin has not yet been fully released. Key support to watch below is at the 111800 level. #BTC #ETH

8.20 Early Morning Technical Analysis #BTC #ETH
Reviewing yesterday's market, Bitcoin rebounded to around 116980 in the morning before facing pressure and falling back, oscillating around 115000 in the afternoon, and then making a significant drop to a low of around 113587 in the evening, followed by a slight rebound. Ethereum's movement was in sync with Bitcoin, oscillating upward to around 4386 in the morning before encountering resistance, making a slight rebound in the afternoon, and then breaking below the 4200 mark in the evening, with a low of around 4167. Today, Lao Hu has consistently maintained a firm bearish outlook, with the positioned short on Bitcoin capturing a space of 1900 points, while Ethereum gained 132 points; in other short-term operations, Bitcoin accumulated nearly 2000 points, and Ethereum accumulated 220 points. Although there was a spike that triggered a stop-loss order in the evening, where Bitcoin lost 460 points and Ethereum lost 40 points, these losses are negligible compared to the overall gains.
From the 4-hour level trend, the middle band and lower band are both extending downward, forming a bearish arrangement, continuously suppressing price rebounds. Since the price started its downtrend from the previous high, multiple rebound attempts have encountered resistance and fallen back near the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, with rebound momentum extremely lacking. Overall, the downtrend is clear and strongly dominated by bears; on one hand, no reversal signs have appeared in the bearish structure of the Bollinger Bands; on the other hand, the price continues to probe lower and approaches the lower band support. If this support is effectively breached, further downward space may open up. In the short term, even if a slight rebound occurs, it is likely to be constrained by the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, making it difficult to reverse the current bearish trend rhythm. Subsequently, attention can be focused on the gains and losses of the lower band support.
Operation Suggestions
Bitcoin around 114000—114500 can be shorted, targeting the previous low around 111800.
Ethereum around 4200 can be shorted, targeting 4060.

The evening market continues to show a strong downward trend, and the previously suggested short-selling strategy has once again been validated by the market. The current market's bearish momentum has not yet been fully released, and it is recommended to continue monitoring the performance under key resistance levels. The strategy of establishing short positions during rebounds can still be continued. Keep up with Lao Hu's pace and be prepared to welcome the next wave of market momentum! #BTC #ETH

Today, we must remain firm in our view on the market. The short positions today have been quite successful, and this evening's rebound may have successfully lured many people into going long. Tonight, pay close attention to the breakout situation at 114000/4200. #BTC #ETH

The Bitcoin swing short position in the morning layout successfully captured a space of 1900 points in the afternoon! Recently, the grasp of market rhythm has been consistently online. If you still feel confused and find it hard to find direction in the current market, why not try to make a change? Lao Hu has always been here, perhaps one choice of yours could change your current situation. #BTC #ETH

The short strategy for Bitcoin at 116600 and Ethereum at 4340 given in the morning has resulted in a movement of 2300 points and 160 points respectively. Congratulations to those who followed the operations, accurately hitting this downward trend! #BTC #ETH
The afternoon market continues to show a weak oscillation pattern, with bullish rebound momentum remaining sluggish, failing to form an effective breakout, and is still dominated by the overall rhythm of the market. In terms of operations, it is recommended to continue relying on the rebound nodes for positioning.
Operational Suggestions
For Bitcoin around 115500, a short position can be taken, targeting 114000—113500.
For Ethereum around 4270, a short position can be taken, currently targeting 4200—4170.

Morning look at the framework again hit the rhythm accurately, Bitcoin over 2000 points, the posture has a pullback space of over 130 points. #BTC #ETH

This morning, a short selling strategy was suggested for Bitcoin at 116600 and Ether at 4340. Currently, in the short term, Bitcoin has gained over 800 points, and Ether has also gained 63 points. Those who followed Lao Hu's rhythm are profiting! #BTC #ETH
From the current trend, the strength and sustainability of the market rebound are significantly weak. In this case, it is not recommended for everyone to stubbornly pursue low long operations. In contrast, the high short strategy is more suitable for the current rhythm, while the risks of low long operations will be significantly higher than those of high shorts, so caution is advised.