10U冲万U日记

After 6 years of trading cryptocurrencies, I've summarized it into 16 statements to share with everyone. Please forward it to your friends who trade cryptocurrencies; they will undoubtedly benefit for a lifetime!

1. Buy altcoins in a bull market, buy BTC in a bear market.
2. Pay close attention to coins that show volume at the bottom, as this often signals a launch.
3. A pullback to important moving averages in an upward trend is a buying opportunity.
4. Don't trade frequently; making the right call on a few major trends in a year is enough.
5. Manage your position well; never go all in, always leave yourself some room to maneuver.
6. Don't average down on losing junk coins; cutting losses in a timely manner is the wise choice.
7. News can only serve as a reference; don't bet everything based on news.
8. Don't touch coins you are not familiar with; focus on the sectors you understand.
9. Don't let market sentiment sway you; stay calm and rational.
10. When altcoins rise too much, they will definitely fall; when they fall too much, they may not necessarily rise. Choice is crucial.
11. When most people are optimistic, it is often when the risks arise.
12. Learn to stay out of the market; wait for clear signals before re-entering.
13. Don't follow the hype; trends often come quickly and leave just as fast.
14. Have your own trading system and stick to it rigorously.
15. Investing is a long-distance race; maintaining a good mindset will allow you to come out on top in the end.
16. Investing doesn't guarantee profits; it is likely to result in losses, so try to invest with spare money. When you invest with spare money, your mindset will be better, and the chances of winning will increase.
#特朗普上任前风向分析
With six years of experience in the cryptocurrency circle, I share my insights on contracts and spot trading for free. Feel free to click on my profile to consult; let's improve together!

In the cryptocurrency market, it is often a case of 'slow rise, sudden fall.' This situation mostly occurs during a rebound or in the middle of an uptrend. To put it simply, this is an old trick of washing out in a bull market.

When a coin finally rises for a few days, suddenly there's a big drop, and the gains of several days can be wiped out in one day. As a result, newbies and those who can't handle it are scared into giving up their chips.

Once the price drops to a certain level and stabilizes, it starts to rise slowly again. When the stock price corrects to a new high, and rises to a certain height, more people follow the trend, and the main capital employs this tactic again, suddenly braking during the upward journey. This kind of drop is fast and short-lived, with the market able to fall 5%-10% within a few days; sometimes it can drop 15%-20%. But don't worry, it will stabilize near important support lines.

#本轮牛市周期预期
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1. Bitcoin is currently around 87,000, having surged to 88,700 last night before retreating to 86,000. The net inflow has not expanded investors' buying sentiment. BlackRock's investors are continuing to buy, but the buying volume is not large. Other channels' investors, apart from BlackRock, still have very low buying sentiment.
2. The market has been in a sideways phase for several days now; it can't rise and doesn't have enough momentum to fall. Investors in spot ETFs are mostly maintaining a wait-and-see attitude, neither buying nor selling. However, overall, BTC still has a strong correlation with U.S. macro policies and the trends in U.S. stock market.
3. Compared to BTC, ETH may offer a greater return rate. ETH has been accumulating between 1,800 and 2,000 for a long time. Although many people criticize ETH as junk, it does not deter those who want to go long. For trend traders, I believe ETH at 1,800-1,900 can be held for the long term, and its return rate in the coming months won't be lower than BTC's.
4. Don't think that just because altcoins have risen a little, the altcoin season has arrived. Look at how much they have dropped before; if they fell 90% and now they rise a bit, you just jump in. If you don’t get stuck, who will?
5. What dog traders fear most is rational retail investors who no longer get overly excited. Every time you enter the market, the timing must justify your judgment, rather than following the trend or blindly entering due to emotional impulses.
6. Unity of knowledge and action is very difficult. In the crypto world, simply watching the market does not equate to making money; entering the market correctly often surpasses over 90% of the effort.
7. Hold onto your bullets; don’t be without ammunition when opportunities arise. Personally, I feel there is still room for a decline, and sometimes waiting in cash is a smart move.

Important things said three times: Don't touch altcoins, don't touch altcoins, don't touch altcoins.

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Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis on March 25: BTC, ETH Highlights Today
Market Review
Yesterday, BTC continued to rise as expected, maintaining a healthy trend. Those who followed earlier can consider reducing positions and waiting for a pullback. The expectation for a correction and consolidation today remains, and after the adjustment, the upward trend is likely to continue. The long-term outlook is still positive, so maintain confidence.
ETH followed BTC and rose simultaneously, briefly breaking through 2100. Those who followed earlier can continue to hold. After stabilizing above 2000 today, the expectation for further increases is quite high.
Altcoins are consolidating in sync with mainstream coins, showing little fluctuation. Most cryptocurrencies are still maintaining a bottom oscillation and starting to stabilize. It may be worth considering following up. The activity on the BSC chain has increased, so consider following BSC ecological coins. Recently, new platforms on the chain to pay attention to include Odin on the BTC chain and TIME on the SOL chain. New platforms bring new opportunities, and you can join community groups for discussions. For existing coins that are currently down, be patient and wait for the market to warm up.
Today's Highlights:
BTC has entered the overbought zone on the 1-hour and 4-hour levels, while returning to a healthy level on the daily chart. The expectation for a correction and consolidation today remains. The support level today is 84,500-85,500, and the resistance level is 87,000-88,000.
ETH has also entered the overbought zone on the 1-hour and 4-hour levels, returning to a healthy level on the daily chart. The expectation for a correction and consolidation today remains. The support level today is 1,950-2,000, and the resistance level is 2,100-2,150.

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Trump's Call for TRUMP Coin: A Naked Slaughter Show of Retail Investors

This is so fucking surreal! Trump just endorsed TRUMP Coin on Twitter for less than three minutes, and then some 'smart money' came in with $5 million to dump it. And what happened? An hour later, this idiot sold off everything and took a loss of $200,000—this is not investing! It’s clearly just handing over your head to the market maker!

If you ask me, this kind of operation is a classic slaughter in the crypto space:
The market maker sets up low-priced chips in advance, uses celebrity effect to pump the price and creates FOMO so that retail investors rush in to buy, only to dump on them.
The worst off are those retail investors who blindly bet everything just because they saw Trump's endorsement. They have no idea that the contract authority of these celebrity tokens is entirely in the hands of the project team; the market maker can issue more tokens, change the rules, or blacklist addresses at any time. On-chain data from yesterday already showed that the top three wallet addresses holding TRUMP Coin control 87% of the circulating supply— isn't that clearly a setup for harvesting?

A reminder for my brothers: When you see this kind of political hot-spot chasing shitcoin, treat it as a scam! Real projects of value don’t need washed-up politicians like Trump to endorse them. Remember, in the crypto space, the moment you hear the news, you’ve already become the bag holder.

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The market is slowly rising over time, showing a U-shaped reversal on the weekly chart, and even Trump has seen a slight weekly increase for three weeks.
This was unimaginable in the past few months; since Trump went online, there hasn't been a three-week consecutive weekly closing increase.
Every time there has been a rebound, there have been more short-term new lows. Now BTC is aligning with the annual line, and there is no longer pressure to push the altcoins to new lows; instead, there is more sideways movement with slight increases.
Currently, it is just a slight weekly increase.
Once the wind comes, the weekly chart will accelerate the U-shaped reversal.
After BTC achieves a U-shaped reversal with continuous new highs, many altcoin prices will collectively break above the annual line, launching like rockets, raising all boats.
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I don't need him to go up to 110,000. I just need it to rise to 90,000.

The Federal Reserve has taken action, and this time it's aimed at 'Trump'.

Just last night, before the opening of the U.S. stock market, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee appeared on CNBC, a channel everyone knows, which is quite influential and has been used by the White House in the past to send urgent messages to the market.

He said that the Federal Reserve is 'going up against' Trump, and there are several points to support this:

First, Trump was mentioned directly. Powell usually tells his subordinates not to comment on Trump's policies too much. But Goolsbee this time said that the Federal Reserve is still pondering Trump’s tariff plan, wondering if it will keep inflation rising. Tariffs on intermediate goods, retaliatory actions from other countries, and these factors might require the Federal Reserve to intervene. He also asked, if tariffs on intermediate goods are imposed, how much will costs rise for consumers? How much can consumers bear? This is a crucial question.

Second, it suggests that interest rate cuts will take longer (Trump wants cuts to happen quickly). Goolsbee also said that the Federal Reserve needs more time to clarify the impact of Trump’s trade actions.

Third, he chose to speak right before the U.S. stock market opened, and what he said was not good news—this is how the Federal Reserve shows the market how frightening it is when 'policies change at a whim'. As soon as Goolsbee finished speaking, the stock market opened down, with the Nasdaq index dropping 1% at the opening. Later, Trump personally stepped in and softened his stance on tariffs, which prevented the stock market from continuing to decline.

Fourth, he borrowed CNBC's platform. Goolsbee openly discussed the impact of Trump’s tariffs on inflation on CNBC (a common mouthpiece for the White House), which is essentially a counterattack against political attempts to interfere with monetary policy. The Federal Reserve is using the opponent's usual tactics to defend its independence. It’s still uncertain who will win or lose in this struggle, but savvy investors have already sensed a brewing storm from Goolsbee’s appearance on CNBC.

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Six Survival Rules for Short-term Cryptocurrency Trading:

1. Wait for a clear trend before taking action

After a high-level consolidation, it is likely to reach a new high, while after a low-level consolidation, it is likely to reach a new low.

Do not rush to trade blindly during a consolidation period; wait for the price to break through key levels before acting.

2. Don’t force trades in a choppy market

Most people lose money because they always want to find opportunities during sideways movement. Remember: sideways movement is the market 'holding back', and rather than being a victim in it, wait for the trend to clarify.

3. Interpret candlestick patterns contrarily

Seeing a large bearish candlestick close (bear market candlestick)? It might be a buying signal.

Seeing a large bullish candlestick close (bull market candlestick)? You might consider cashing out.

(In simple terms: don’t panic at the close of a bearish candlestick, and don’t be greedy at the close of a bullish candlestick.)

4. Avoid rebounds in a downtrend

When the market is in a downtrend, a rebound is often just a 'flash in the pan' and can accelerate the decline. At this time, rather than buying at a high price, it’s better to wait until the trend deteriorates completely before acting.

5. Build positions in batches, pyramid strategy

Don’t buy all at once; buy more when the price is lower and less when the price rises. For example:

Buy 10% the first time, buy 20% after a 5% drop, and keep adding as it drops...

This way, you can lower your average cost and avoid making a wrong directional bet all at once.

6. Clear positions promptly when the trend is at an end

Whether it is a rise or fall, when the price continues to extremes, it will inevitably enter a consolidation phase. At this time:

- Don’t cling to high positions: sell when it has risen too much, don’t wait for a pullback and regret it later.

- Don’t rush at low positions: wait for confirmation of a trend reversal before buying, don’t be fooled by short-term fluctuations.

If the price starts to decline wave by wave from a high point, hurry to clear your positions— the trend may be about to change!

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Summary: Trading is a game of patience

Remember: Trading is not gambling; it’s a game of probabilities.

- First, avoid those three 'pits'; preserving your capital is the most important.

- Short-term trading requires discipline: once the rules are set, stick to them, don’t get carried away by emotions.

- Don’t think about 'making all the money'; being able to seize a few certain opportunities is enough.

Lastly, let’s be frank: the market is never short of opportunities; what it lacks are people who can calmly seize them.

Earn $100,000 a month with $5,000
The core idea is simple: leverage contract trading to magnify profits! But don't rush in, let's take it step by step:
Step 1: Start small and snowball (from $300 to $1,100)
Every time take out $100 to play, specifically targeting the most popular coins recently, and coins with a negative funding rate. Remember two things:
① Cash out when you double your money (for example, if $100 becomes $200, stop immediately) ② If you lose down to $50, cut your losses. With good luck, if you win three times in a row, you can snowball up to $800
($100-$200~$400~$800), winning three times can offset losses from eight rounds 💰, but take the profit while you can! In a day, aim to play at most three rounds, and stop when you earn around $1,000. This stage relies heavily on luck, so don't be greedy!
When you have more money, go for a combination punch (start with $1,000)

Step 2: Focus on 15-minute fluctuations, Bitcoin/Ethereum/Sol/Bnb, these more stable coins. For example, if you see a large bullish candle with volume in 15 minutes suddenly rising or you see a pin bar that recovers in 15 minutes, and the second 15 minutes is still rising, immediately follow and chase the rise, aiming to earn 2%-3% and then run. Losses are only allowed up to 1%, like street vendors, small profits with high sales.

Key points to emphasize:
① Bet a maximum of 1/10 of your capital each time, don't go All in! ② Set a stop loss for each order! Small losses, big profits
③ Play at most 3 orders a day, aim for three consecutive wins when you spot opportunities, reinvest successfully 🏆 ④ Withdraw once you reach your target, don’t think about 'earning another wave'! Remember: those who turn their fortunes using this method are ruthless, being tough on others means being tougher on yourself!

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Trump Calls on the Federal Reserve Again: Lowering Interest Rates is the Right Path!

On March 21, U.S. President Trump posted again. In his message, he said that egg prices have significantly decreased compared to the prices during Biden's administration, and grocery and gasoline prices have also gone down. Then, he shifted his focus to the Federal Reserve, saying, 'Now, if the Federal Reserve can do the right thing and lower interest rates, that would be fantastic.

For those who like contracts, enjoy researching the market, and studying techniques, click on my profile. With years of experience in the crypto circle, I share tips for free. I’m waiting for you in the circle, always online, welcome to discuss and progress together.

Summarizing the discipline and insights of cryptocurrency trading,

The content is not much, but it is very valuable. If you feel it's unreasonable after reading, say whatever you like!

1. Never buy coins at a high price; you must have this mindset: let it rise as much as it wants, treat this coin as if it doesn't exist.

2. There are only two types of coins: the coins you buy at good entry points are good coins; otherwise, they are garbage coins. The coins bought at larger entry points are the best performing coins. Be patient and wait for these coins bought at larger entry points to become truly excellent stocks; this is the right mindset.

3. In fact, the most important thing in cryptocurrency trading is the mindset. Many people know clearly that it is not a good entry point, yet they can't help but buy; this is a mindset issue. If you don't solve this, any theory is useless.

4. The mindset must be stable. Do not have any emotions towards any coin or entry point; only look at the market signals. You should have emotions towards buying and selling points. If your skills are good and you have a large amount of capital, for example, if you can operate on a 30-minute basis, then there's no such thing as being too late.

5. The reasons for mistakes are always unrelated to the market. To find the reason, you can only look for your own reasons; every mistake must be summarized immediately.

6. The psychology of rushing to make money is a big taboo for us cryptocurrency participants. If you can't even control your own heart, and can't control your greed and desire, you cannot succeed in the market for a long time. There are two forms: when you hold the coins, your thinking is controlled by the bulls; conversely, you become a slave to the bears. The market's emotions accumulate and are guided in this way. Those who can't get out of this state will forever be false market participants.

7. Cryptocurrency trading tests long-term profitability, not the ability for a one-time explosion; the key is a long-term effective trading strategy. When buying, you must think through various situations; be resolute in holding, and even more resolute in selling; this is how you can gradually improve. It is you who trade the coins, not the coins that trade you; start with yourself.

8. The virtual currency market only rewards those who are patient; any good coins need time to grow. Constantly switching to new coins will definitely lead to always having small funds and small gains. Be more focused; those who run around every day will definitely not make big money.

With rich experience in the crypto space, I am happy to share. Feel free to click on the avatar to find me for consultation.

Six Survival Rules for Short-Term Trading

1. Wait for Clear Trends Before Acting

- After a high-level consolidation, it is easy to reach new highs; after a low-level consolidation, there is a high probability of reaching new lows.

- Do not rush to trade blindly during a consolidation period; wait for prices to break through key levels before taking action.

2. Don't Force Trades in Choppy Markets

Most people lose money because they always want to find opportunities during sideways markets. Remember: sideways movement means the market is “holding back its big move.” Rather than being the fodder in this phase, it's better to wait for a clear trend.

3. Interpret Candlestick Patterns Contrarily

- See a large bearish candle closing (bear market candlestick)? It might be a buying signal.

- See a large bullish candle closing (bull market candlestick)? Consider taking profits first.

(To put it simply: don’t panic at bearish close; don’t be greedy at bullish close)

4. Avoid Touching Rebounds in Downtrends

When the market is in a downtrend, rebounds are often just a “flash in the pan” and can accelerate the decline. Instead of buying at high levels, it's better to wait for the trend to deteriorate completely before acting.

5. Build Positions in Batches, Pyramid Strategy

Don’t buy everything at once; buy more when prices are lower and less when prices rise. For example:

- Buy 10% initially, buy 20% if it drops 5%, and add more if it drops again…

This way, you can lower your average cost and avoid making a big wrong bet all at once.

6. Liquidate Timely When Trends Peak

Whether rising or falling, when prices reach extremes, they will inevitably enter a consolidation phase. At this time:

- Don’t cling to high positions: sell if it rises too much; don’t wait for a pullback and then regret.

- Don’t rush at low positions: wait for confirmation of a trend reversal before buying; don’t be fooled by short-term fluctuations.

If prices start to decline wave by wave from a high point, quickly liquidate—trends may be about to change!

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"Guide to Avoiding Pitfalls" and Practical Rules for Cryptocurrency Trading: Simple and Rough Version

Three Things You Should Never Do

1. Don't chase the rise, learn to operate in reverse

Many people always think about "chasing hot spots" and rush in when they see the price rise, but they are often trapped. Remember: you should be afraid when others are greedy, and you should be greedy when others are afraid. When the price falls, it may be a good opportunity to pick up bargains, so develop the habit of buying at low points.

2. Leverage is a double-edged sword, use it with caution!

Leverage can magnify profits, but it can also make you blow up your position instantly. For example: use 10 times leverage to buy 10,000, and the price will drop by 10% and return to zero directly. Instead of thinking about "getting rich overnight", it is better to practice with your own funds first, and then use leverage cautiously when you have experience.

3. Don't go all-in

Put all your funds on one order, and once the direction is wrong, there is no way out. There will always be new opportunities in the market, and the cost of full-position operation may be much higher than you think-for example, missing other potential profit points.

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How to Play with Contract Positions? A Step-by-Step Guide to the 'Rolling Position' Strategy (Simple Version)

What is 'Rolling Position'?

In a trending market, the process of gradually increasing the position to amplify profits while allowing the leverage ratio to decrease as profits grow, ultimately achieving a rolling increase in profits, is called 'Rolling Position'. In simple terms, it means 'when you make money, reinvest it, allowing profits to grow like a snowball'.

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Real Case of Rolling Position (An Example)

Assume you have 100,000 capital, operating a certain cryptocurrency, initial price 10 yuan, using 20x leverage to go long:

1. First Stage:

- Price rises by 5% → to 10.5 yuan

- Profit 100,000 × 5% = 50,000, total assets become 150,000

- At this point, roll the position: invest all 150,000, continue with 20x leverage to go long

2. Second Stage:

- Price rises another 5% → to 11 yuan

- Profit 150,000 × 5% = 75,000, total assets become 300,000

- Continue rolling the position: bet all 300,000, 20x leverage

3. Third Stage:

- Price rises another 5% → to approximately 11.58 yuan

- Profit 300,000 × 5% = 150,000, total assets become 600,000

- Continue rolling the position: bet all 600,000, 20x leverage

Continuing this way, every 5% increase adds to the position, ultimately:

- When it rises by 20%: total assets approximately 1.6 million

- When it rises by 25%: approximately 3.2 million

- When it rises by 30%: approximately 4.35 million

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Key Rules: The 'Correct Posture' for Rolling Positions

1. Only operate in a clear trend

- The premise for rolling positions is a 'certain trend', such as a channel where prices are continuously rising or falling.

- Don't roll in a choppy market: frequently increasing positions during sideways movement will only increase fees and risks.

2. Conditions for Adding Positions

- Must wait for the previous position to have stable unrealized gains: for example, only add once every 5% increase.

- Don't be greedy: the larger the increase, the higher the risk of correction, be cautious in later stages.

3. Risk Control

- Set stop-loss: even in an upward trend, set a stop-loss level to prevent trend reversal.

- Don't roll everything to the end: leave some funds for unexpected situations, such as sudden changes in market sentiment.

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Why Do Many People Fail with Rolling Positions?

- Captured by emotions: seeing a rise and crazily increasing positions, seeing a drop and stubbornly holding on.

- Mistaking choppy markets for trends: forcing a roll during sideways movement results in wasted fees.

- Using too much leverage: for example, using 100x leverage, one fluctuation can lead to liquidation.

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Summary: The Core of Rolling Positions is 'Stability'

1. Use only in major trends, don't act on small fluctuations.

2. Add positions in batches, don't go all in at once.

3. Always be ready to stop-loss, stop immediately if the trend reverses.

Remember: Rolling positions are not a 'gamble', but a disciplined approach to gradually accumulate profits. When market sentiment fluctuates, never act impulsively — because if you judge wrongly, you may lose back all the profits you’ve made previously.

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Trump Roars for Rate Cuts! The Fed Stubbornly Holds at 4.25%, Economy on the Brink of Explosion😱

Trump Loses His Temper

Trump shouted on social media: "Tariffs are smashing the economy, Fed, cut rates quickly! April 2nd is the bottom line!" But the Fed's FOMC firmly held the interest rate at 4.25%-4.5% on Wednesday, refusing to budge for two consecutive rounds. Economic forecasts took a hit: growth dropped from 2.1% to 1.7%, inflation soared from 2.5% to 2.8%, and stagflation alarms have been sounded💥!

The Fed’s Cold Sweat

FOMC admitted the risks are exploding, inflation is chasing growth, and they dare not move on rate cuts. Powell is anxious: "Inflation plus tariffs, this year is a mess!" Businesses are on edge, and the shadow of a collapse looms. Although they expect rates to drop to 3.9% by the end of 2025, four members strongly shouted "don’t move" this year💪!

Market Trembles

As soon as the rate cut rumors surfaced, the stock market trembled: Dow futures rose 71 points, S&P 500 up 0.3%, Nasdaq up 0.4%. On Wednesday, the Dow soared 0.9%, S&P rose 1%, and Nasdaq surged 1.4%, but Nasdaq is still down over 10%, and S&P dropped 7% from its peak. Experts say: "The market is betting the Fed can save us!" Trump had already hinted at increasing tariffs on April 2nd, and Thursday's data will reveal the truth😎

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Firmly optimistic about the continuation of the bull market!

"All" on-chain indicators point to the bull market not being over

"All" major institutions are bottom-fishing, with sustained net inflows of Bitcoin ETF funds starting March 14, indicating institutional confidence in this position

"All" retail investors are bearish, the market sentiment is heavily pessimistic, and many influencers are not optimistic about the future market

Bitcoin starting with 7 is the bottom of this round of adjustments, no rebuttals accepted!

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Latest Bitcoin Price Update: Rising to the 86k~87k Range, Is It a Reversal or a Bounce?

The current Bitcoin price has risen to the 86k~87k range. Since the drop from 110k, we assess that 76k may be the endpoint of this round of decline. However, whether this means a trend reversal or merely a bounce is still uncertain.

If this rise is part of a bounce structure, then the minimum increase should reach 15k, meaning Bitcoin needs to push to around 90k. The first key resistance level is at 90k~91k, and at that point, a pullback may occur, but the specific pullback method still needs observation. From a time cycle perspective, it was previously anticipated that this wave of increase, if it is a bounce, would last about 15 days, and so far only 9 days have passed, indicating that the rise has not yet ended.

From a structural analysis perspective, the 3.17 analytical framework remains valid. Before the 3/c wave is completed, it is not advisable to short too early.

I still believe this is a bounce, not a reversal.

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This week in Canada, the EU tariff issues are tumultuous, and Bitcoin is under continuous pressure. Today, it has experienced a significant downward trend, breaking below the 80,000 mark, catching bulls off guard and leading to a collapse. With the promised tariff issues unresolved, don't expect a significant rebound in Bitcoin in the short term.

The anticipated 80,000 has arrived as expected, continuing to seize the 4,000 space, and the four-hour chart has once again fallen below the BOLL middle band, with moving averages showing a death cross. The bearish trend persists. Key resistance is at the 82,000 level above, while support is at the 78,000 level below.

During the early hours, there was a short position around 82,000, with a target near 80,000. If it breaks down further, we continue to look downward, synchronizing with Ethereum.

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Prepare in advance to reap double rewards