乘风论势
公众号：乘风论势。实时分析，规划指导
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The morning saw a rebound in #Solana现货ETF竞赛 , which began to face pressure and fall back after reaching around 108900. The daily level is also quite evident, with the upper track presenting resistance. This pullback started rebounding near the daily middle track, indicating that there is still certain resistance below. This rebound has finally broken through the previous smaller range oscillation. This wave is also gradually stabilizing above the middle track, and the market can continue to look for bullish momentum.
Bitcoin bought at 106500, focus on 108500
Ethereum bought at 2560, focus on 2630
Bitcoin bought at 106500, focus on 108500
Ethereum bought at 2560, focus on 2630
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The big pie at #币安HODLer空投SPK welcomed the stretch as scheduled at dawn, peaking around 108900. The previous strategy has also mentioned that this is now the second phase of the bull market. There will definitely be moments of spikes, but you never know when it will break through the historical high. At that time, it might not be possible to seize the opportunity. So what we can do now is to be flexible and make preparations before the violent stretch, striving to catch this wave of opportunity.
This rebound, although quite strong, has also retreated again. From previously hovering below the middle track, it has now stabilized and started to extend upwards. The upper track is continuously contracting downwards, indicating that there is still overall high-level pressure. After diverging in the hourly trend, it has now started to retreat, showing signs of stopping the decline after touching the middle track support. This morning, still taking a short position for a wave, let's see how strong the rebound is.
Big pie at 107300, focusing on 109000.
Ethereum at 2560, focusing on 2630.
This rebound, although quite strong, has also retreated again. From previously hovering below the middle track, it has now stabilized and started to extend upwards. The upper track is continuously contracting downwards, indicating that there is still overall high-level pressure. After diverging in the hourly trend, it has now started to retreat, showing signs of stopping the decline after touching the middle track support. This morning, still taking a short position for a wave, let's see how strong the rebound is.
Big pie at 107300, focusing on 109000.
Ethereum at 2560, focusing on 2630.
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How Bitcoin's Price Set a New High
From Satoshi Nakamoto's 'mathematics of beauty' to U.S. President Trump's national reserves; from cyber frenzy to publicly listed companies hoarding Bitcoin; from Bitcoin's price breaking $110,000 to tens of thousands of meme coins (air coins without fundamental value), virtual assets represented by Bitcoin have embarked on a new narrative rhythm in 2025. In mid-May 2025, influenced by the easing of Trump's tariff policies, the improvement of stablecoin regulations in Hong Kong and the U.S., and the simultaneous downturn of the U.S. stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets, the world's largest market capitalization cryptocurrency Bitcoin first broke through the $110,000 mark, breaking the record of $109,000 set in January 2025 after Trump's election, reaching a historical new high. As Bitcoin's trading price first surpassed $110,000, market attention and discussion regarding virtual assets have once again heated up. Why did Bitcoin's price rise in this round and set a new historical high? Integrating the views of multiple market participants and institutions, there are multiple favorable factors supporting this round of increase, including the easing of trade tensions, a more friendly attitude from the Trump administration towards cryptocurrencies, progress in stablecoin legislation in the U.S. and Hong Kong, continued inflows of institutional funds, and improvements in the macroeconomic environment. In early April, Trump signed the so-called 'reciprocal tariff' policy at the White House, leading to a sharp decline in virtual assets, U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, and the dollar market. On May 12, China and the U.S. issued a joint statement from the Geneva trade talks, significantly reducing bilateral tariff levels. Both sides promised to eliminate 91% of the tariffs imposed on each other's imported goods, while suspending 24% of the tariffs for 90 days, ultimately resulting in a cumulative reduction of 115% in tariffs. This agreement, which exceeded market expectations, alleviated concerns about the escalation of the trade war and a global economic recession. On the policy front, stablecoin legislation has become the most significant component of this year's Bitcoin narrative. On May 30, the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region government announced the (Stablecoin Regulation). According to the regulation, any institution or individual issuing fiat currency stablecoins in Hong Kong, or claiming to peg the value of Hong Kong dollars (regardless of where the issuance occurs), must apply for a license from the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. In terms of U.S. legislation, on May 19, the U.S. Senate officially passed the (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation Act for U.S. Stablecoins) with a vote of 66 to 32. In June, the bill will enter the full Senate voting phase. In terms of funding, Bitcoin and Bitcoin spot ETFs (exchange-traded funds) continue to attract capital inflows, highlighting the capital's enthusiasm for Bitcoin. The rise in Bitcoin prices is also attributed to global worries about the surge in U.S. government deficits under Trump's leadership, combined with a global wave of large-scale sell-offs of U.S. Treasuries, which in turn pushed Bitcoin, known as a 'newly emerging safe-haven asset,' to soar. Regarding Bitcoin's trend in the second half of this year, Standard Chartered Bank expects Bitcoin to surpass $120,000 within the year, and it also predicts that Bitcoin could rise to $500,000 before Trump officially leaves office in 2029. Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital assets at Standard Chartered Bank, stated that in April, he set Bitcoin's target for the second quarter at $120,000. Driven by a strategic reallocation of U.S. assets and continued buying by large holders, Bitcoin's upward momentum is expected to continue into the summer of this year, possibly approaching the $200,000 target by the end of the year. HashKey Group's chief analyst Ding Zhaofei told (Finance) that the high for Bitcoin prices this year is expected to reach $150,000 to $180,000, and the narrative of the entire cryptocurrency market is also warming up. Although the spot prices are in consolidation and macro uncertainties remain, the implied volatility of cryptocurrency assets remains relatively high. However, institutions also remind that it is essential to be cautious of the high-risk nature of investments in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Investors should pay attention to multiple factors affecting the prices of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, including global economic uncertainty, regulatory policy changes, whale investor movements, and the security of cryptocurrency assets (such as hacking). Prices have repeatedly set historical highs.
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The recent ideas of #Metaplanet增持比特币 have been continuously validated. One is that the market is indeed quite good, showing relatively regular trends, and the other is the rich practical experience accumulated over many years. Recently, I have found many friends here, and I am very grateful for everyone’s recognition. In their positions, they carry out their duties and responsibilities. Since everyone trusts me, I will also provide professional advice and planning. Just patiently wait for the follow-up.
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#以色列伊朗冲突 A new week has begun. The long positions arranged in the morning at the oscillating low have started to rebound as expected, reaching a high of around 105700, directly capturing a 1000-point space on Bitcoin. This also indicates that the morning's strategy was completely correct. Recently, the market has indeed been quite conventional, and such conventional markets are very easy to trade. This is why I tell everyone that good market conditions should be seized in a timely manner to maximize profits.
From the daily chart, Bitcoin is also very clear; the real body has been moving back and forth along a single line, with shadows on both sides, and it has been under pressure from the moving averages. The hourly trend is also continuously contracting under an oscillating structure, and once it contracts to a certain extent, it will choose a direction again. Considering that we are currently at the high end of the oscillating range, the signs of pressure are also very obvious, so in the afternoon we can first look for a pullback at the high.
Bitcoin short at 106000, focus on 104000.
Ethereum short at 2560, focus on 2500.
From the daily chart, Bitcoin is also very clear; the real body has been moving back and forth along a single line, with shadows on both sides, and it has been under pressure from the moving averages. The hourly trend is also continuously contracting under an oscillating structure, and once it contracts to a certain extent, it will choose a direction again. Considering that we are currently at the high end of the oscillating range, the signs of pressure are also very obvious, so in the afternoon we can first look for a pullback at the high.
Bitcoin short at 106000, focus on 104000.
Ethereum short at 2560, focus on 2500.
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Isn't this oscillating market of #MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC obvious? Currently, as long as there is no breakout above or below the range, it is still operating within the oscillation range. During this time, there is basically no need to predict the market; just grasp the highest and lowest points of the range. If the high and low points of the oscillation range are not effectively broken, we will continue to treat it as range oscillation. Currently, it has also reached a relatively low position, so we can take a short-term long position in the trend.
Bitcoin at 104500, focus on 106000
Ethereum at 2520, focus on 2580
Bitcoin at 104500, focus on 106000
Ethereum at 2520, focus on 2580
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#MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC The weekend is indeed a good market for trading oil. Following the successful short position this morning, I advised everyone to directly switch to long positions at the lower levels. In the evening, we also welcomed the expected stretch. Grasping the range is quite comfortable, managing the long and short positions back and forth, and operating according to the structure. This kind of routine fluctuation is relatively easy to operate.
Currently, Bitcoin is still in a fluctuating structure. Although there has been some rebound, it has not yet broken through the high end of the range. The trend is also contracting, and the daily candlestick shows a doji structure with small upper and lower shadows, indicating that the overall volatility is still not large. We can continue to treat it with a high short position in the early hours.
Bitcoin 106000 short, focus on 104000
Ethereum 2560 short, focus on 2500
Currently, Bitcoin is still in a fluctuating structure. Although there has been some rebound, it has not yet broken through the high end of the range. The trend is also contracting, and the daily candlestick shows a doji structure with small upper and lower shadows, indicating that the overall volatility is still not large. We can continue to treat it with a high short position in the early hours.
Bitcoin 106000 short, focus on 104000
Ethereum 2560 short, focus on 2500
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The sideways movement on Sunday #特朗普比特币金库 continued the oscillation range from Saturday, there are still fluctuations, it just depends on whether you can grasp them well. What I previously reminded everyone is still the same, grasp the high and low points of the range, and you can jump around in it. Now it can be said that it has slowly retraced to the middle of the range, there is space below, but not much. So currently, it is still treated as more retracement.
Bitcoin over 104500, focus on 106000
Ethereum over 2500, focus on 2550
Bitcoin over 104500, focus on 106000
Ethereum over 2500, focus on 2550
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The pressure above #特朗普比特币金库 is still quite evident. Although there was a slight rebound in the afternoon, approaching around 106000, which coincided with our expected entry point for short positions, there hasn't been much continuation. Our short positions have already been established, and the current trend is still operating within a range, so our short positions arranged at high levels are not a major issue. Just hold patiently.
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The fluctuations of #卡尔达诺稳定币提案 white plate are indeed relatively small, but that's okay. Although it has been hovering at a high level, there is no sign of further breakthroughs. It is highly likely that it will continue to go through the previous range fluctuations. Just patiently wait for the market to indicate.
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Yesterday evening, it was also observed that Bitcoin has been continuously adjusting, but overall it is still operating within the previous range of fluctuating structure. A wave of pullback long positions was arranged for everyone at low levels. It now seems to be precise guidance, giving a hint above 104300, aiming directly at 106000. Although there wasn't a perfect take profit, there was still a thousand-point space. Friends who followed can reduce their positions or exit. All strategies were announced in advance, and performance can be verified.
The rebound in the early morning was quite strong, also engulfing last night's slight decline. From the four-hour level, there is still a certain distance to the upper high of the range. However, at the one-hour level, it has already reached near the upper track, which is a short-term pressure structure. Currently, the overall fluctuation range has shown a slight downward movement, and in the morning, we continue to layout short positions at high levels.
Bitcoin short at 105800, focus on 104000.
Ethereum short at 2535, focus on 2480.
The rebound in the early morning was quite strong, also engulfing last night's slight decline. From the four-hour level, there is still a certain distance to the upper high of the range. However, at the one-hour level, it has already reached near the upper track, which is a short-term pressure structure. Currently, the overall fluctuation range has shown a slight downward movement, and in the morning, we continue to layout short positions at high levels.
Bitcoin short at 105800, focus on 104000.
Ethereum short at 2535, focus on 2480.
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#卡尔达诺稳定币提案 Good good good. A few hundred points of fluctuations, it really stayed flat all night. Although the market fluctuations over the weekend are not large and may not yield many points, everything has its pros and cons. If the fluctuations are small, there's no need to worry too much about the risk of liquidation. Just grasp the high and low points of the range, and you can exit with a few hundred points of space. Repeated operations can still yield a considerable profit, so weekends are a stable time to make easy trades. Just like today, we arranged a short position at a high point, then directly went long at a low point. After taking both trades, we have been observing since then.
The daily chart for Bitcoin shows a process of gradual decline today. Currently, it has completely swallowed yesterday's slight rebound. From the daily level, it has broken through the middle track from the upper track, and there is an intention to continue testing downward. However, on the hourly level, it is indeed holding at the low end of the fluctuating range, and since the previous trend has not been broken, we will continue to treat it as a pullback to go long.
Bitcoin 104500-104300 long, focus on 106000
Ethereum 2510-2500 long, focus on 2560
The daily chart for Bitcoin shows a process of gradual decline today. Currently, it has completely swallowed yesterday's slight rebound. From the daily level, it has broken through the middle track from the upper track, and there is an intention to continue testing downward. However, on the hourly level, it is indeed holding at the low end of the fluctuating range, and since the previous trend has not been broken, we will continue to treat it as a pullback to go long.
Bitcoin 104500-104300 long, focus on 106000
Ethereum 2510-2500 long, focus on 2560
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This fluctuation of #卡尔达诺稳定币提案 is indeed tormenting. From afternoon to evening, there are basically hundreds of points of fluctuation, going back and forth. The long positions at a low level have also made small gains and were exited. Although the gains are not much, it is better than being trapped and continuing to suffer. Now at this position, neither up nor down, we can wait for the market to move, grasp the range well, and layout high shorts and low longs accordingly.
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The long positions arranged at noon based on the oscillation range of #卡尔达诺稳定币提案 are still being held. In the afternoon, there was a slight pullback, but the strength was average and did not show much continuation. The hourly trend has already started to contract, so there shouldn't be much issue with the long positions arranged at the low. Just continue to look upward.
Bitcoin at 104700, focus on 106000.
Ethereum at 2520, focus on 2570.
Bitcoin at 104700, focus on 106000.
Ethereum at 2520, focus on 2570.
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The early morning of #以色列伊朗冲突 has already been indicated, and the weekend fluctuations are indeed not significant, mainly characterized by range oscillations. After closing the short positions arranged at high levels in the morning, it's also straightforward to directly flip to long positions, it's that simple. The weekend market can be quite exhausting, as it is a process of exchanging time for space. Give the market a little time, and you can hold patiently.
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The large pancake (Bitcoin) indeed rebounded, reaching a peak around 106200. However, overall, it is near the expected entry point where we entered, so we won't wait too long and can directly arrange to enter a short position. Subsequently, as expected, we welcomed a pullback, with the current coin price dropping to around 105300, giving us a space of 700 points. It looks like we have also reached the low of the range, so we can directly reverse and take a short-term long position during lunch.
Large pancake above 105000, focus on 106200
Ethereum above 2540, focus on 2590
Large pancake above 105000, focus on 106200
Ethereum above 2540, focus on 2590
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#加密市场回调 Yesterday evening, I reminded everyone to enter short positions near 105500. Although there was a slight rebound afterward, the fluctuations were minimal. After reaching around 105900, it began to decline as expected, and the arranged short position also gained a small profit of 800 points. The cryptocurrency market is constantly changing, which is why we emphasize the need to monitor the market in real time. It may be in a spike one second and then start to rebound the next second, including the trades we provide, which are analyzed comprehensively based on the current fluctuations, not given arbitrarily.
The daily candle for Bitcoin is starting to close. Yesterday's spike has been roughly recovered by the bulls this morning. We are now in Saturday's daytime trading, and the weekend structure is mainly a correction of the previous large fluctuations. As mentioned earlier, we should still treat it as a range-bound fluctuation. From the hourly perspective, it has once again returned to a high point in the trend, so we will continue to layout short positions in the morning.
Bitcoin short at 106000, watch 104500. Ethereum short at 2575, watch 2500.
The daily candle for Bitcoin is starting to close. Yesterday's spike has been roughly recovered by the bulls this morning. We are now in Saturday's daytime trading, and the weekend structure is mainly a correction of the previous large fluctuations. As mentioned earlier, we should still treat it as a range-bound fluctuation. From the hourly perspective, it has once again returned to a high point in the trend, so we will continue to layout short positions in the morning.
Bitcoin short at 106000, watch 104500. Ethereum short at 2575, watch 2500.
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#加密市场回调 Although there was a rebound in the evening, it did not extend much, and it remains in a high-level sideways state. The market sentiment is still leaning towards bearish. The hourly downtrend channel has formed, and it has failed to break through the upper resistance level. It is highly likely that it will continue to pull back. In the evening, keep looking down, and remember to maintain your defense. If Bitcoin makes a strong move upwards and breaks through the upper pressure, it won't be too late to follow up.
Bitcoin short at 105500, focus on 103000
Ethereum short at 255, focus on 2480
Bitcoin short at 105500, focus on 103000
Ethereum short at 255, focus on 2480
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#加密市场回调 The evening pancake fluctuated little, remaining in a state of high-level consolidation, with the rebound position getting lower and leaving a long lower shadow above. From the daily chart, although it is overall in the lower part of the range of the box structure, the bears are still dominant. The strength of the current rebound is also decreasing, and the overall trend is still under pressure. The short position we arranged in the afternoon has also been held, so just continue to patiently look down.
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The pressure above the pancake at #加密市场回调 is still very clear. This rebound is also directly approaching the short-term resistance level above. We will continue with the previous strategy: if it cannot break, we will treat it as a structure under pressure. Just be patient with any short positions entered and wait for the market to move.
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