José_Argentina

While the majority here was shouting "Buy SOL before it goes to the Moon!", a simple novice saw that that was not going to happen.

URGENT 💥💥💥💥

The FED lowered the rate by 0.25 as expected. What will be the reaction of $BTC ?

#MarketSentimentToday A 80% bullish! Whenever the percentage is so high to one side or the other, the market becomes tricky...

For the New York Times, Trump will easily win. However, there is still no data on the decisive states (except Georgia, almost certainly for the Republicans). I notice a certain caution in the market movements, as if waiting for that confirmation.

$BTC $ 74,000

NEW ATH (and rising)

I find it interesting that, while the data brings us closer to a definition in favor of Trump, $BTC is not showing those long green candles. Is there any doubt? The purchases were made earlier and now it's time to exit? I would expect the ATH to be broken first.

Now the real volatility has begun.

There is an interesting drop of the dollar today.

If one looks at #Euro , #Yen or #Libra , among others, you can notice how these appreciate against the US currency. $BTC is no exception.

The question is: what is the market seeing? I have read several analyses that cast doubt on a Trump victory (which many considered certain), and even give Harris the victory in some key states.

This could be moving the dollar downwards, analysts speculate, since - as I mentioned in a previous post - a Trump victory would strengthen that currency due to the implementation of ultra-protectionist policies.

U.S. exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that invest in bitcoin recorded their largest daily net outflow to date as markets prepare for the election day.

The group of 12 funds managed by entities such as BlackRock Inc. and Fidelity Investments saw outflows of $579.5 million on Monday, according to data collected by Bloomberg.

The outflows occur as digital asset operators brace for a period of increased volatility immediately following the U.S. elections.

SOURCE: Bloomberg.

A potential victory of Donald Trump in the medium and long term will harm $BTC and the entire crypto world, not improve it. But you are not prepared for this conversation.

*Disclaimer: if he wins, there may be euphoria today and in the following days, and we might even have a new ATH, but the measures he promises (especially those aimed at increasing tariffs and protectionism) will tend to strengthen the dollar. And we already know what happens to risk assets when that occurs.

#BTC🔥🔥🔥🔥 #Elections

Axios reported that Trump's team recognizes they are losing the elections, while some polls give a slight advantage to Kamala Harris in swing states.

These news may be contributing to the caution surrounding the $BTC , which is flirting between a rise and a fall.

The fact is that, in any scenario, it is possible that tomorrow the winner will not be known (people I know in the U.S. say it could take weeks, and even the Justice may intervene due to candidates' claims). This will bring a lot of volatility to the market tomorrow and in the following days.

On the other hand, I insist on my theory that the market has already bought Trump's victory, just as earlier in the year it anticipated the #Halving and the #ETF . If this holds true, it is possible that, as happened in those instances, the market will fall ("buy the rumor, sell the news").

Furthermore, I don't understand why a victory of #Trump favors BTC: beyond its explicit support, its policies have proven to be conservative and the dollar is expected to be strengthened, which would cause a crypto decline.

#ElectionDay

Very similar days are coming. It doesn't seem very advisable to operate until the volatility passes. 🙉

$BTC

I was very worried about a loss operation, but I just left the car at the workshop and I will have to shell out $ 800 ARS (Argentina), just over US$ 700, more than 7 times the loss that worried me so much. 😫

🚨Poor US labor market results in October

▶️ In October, US employment data showed that only 12,000 jobs were created outside the agricultural sector, well below the expectation of 113,000!

▶️ Revisions for the previous two months were also negative, totaling a net loss of 112,000 jobs, compared to the previous forecast of a gain of 72,000.

▶️ If we exclude the 40,000 government jobs this month, private payrolls would have actually been negative, at -28,000, compared to 223,000 before last month's revision, and the first negative result since December 2020.

However, analysts suggest that the data is heavily influenced by the impact of the hurricane that hit the United States and brought many workplaces to a standstill.

THE DATA that explains the drop:

The preferred measure of the Federal Reserve to gauge core inflation in the U.S. recorded its largest monthly increase since April, reinforcing the idea of slowing the pace of interest rate cuts following last month's drastic reduction.

The so-called Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which excludes the volatility of food and energy, increased by 0.3% in September and 2.7% a year earlier, according to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis released this Thursday.

Overall inflation was 2.1%, the lowest since early 2021 and just above the central bank's target of 2%.

SOURCE: Bloomberg

Employment and consumption in the U.S. maintain moderate growth in the third quarter

▶️ In the third quarter, data on benefits, wages, and labor costs in the United States showed a growth of 0.8%, a slight slowdown compared to previous quarters.

▶️ Initial claims for unemployment benefits fell to 216,000, below expectations of 230,000, and the four-week average fell to 236,500, reflecting signs of resilience in the labor market.

▶️ Real personal consumption increased by 0.4% in September, also boosting adjusted consumption, which rose by 0.5%, exceeding expectations of 0.4%.

▶️ The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the inflation metric preferred by the Fed, recorded an annual increase of 2.1%, in line with projections, while the core PCE index rose by 2.7% year-on-year, slightly above previous forecasts of 2.6%.

▶️ These data indicate sustained economic activity with moderate income growth and inflation control.

FIRST NEWS OF THE DAY:💥

US: ADP OCTOBER JOB CHANGE: +233k vs +111K est. (Strongest reading since July 2023);

ADP reported a well-above-expected increase in employment for Friday's payrolls figure. It's a little hard to understand how they came up with that number. But this is the regularly scheduled reminder that ADP and nonfarm payrolls often don't match up.

- Previously revised from +143k to +159k

- Average annual wage change 4.6% vs. 4.7% before
- Average annual wage change 6.2% vs. 6.6% before

US 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELDS RISE STRONGLY AFTER ADP EMPLOYMENT DATA.59510:2

Nothing from #ATH to $BTC , but with great sales pressure. Are we arriving today?

I went very short on yesterday's #Futures trade 😂

Yesterday I learned for the first time how the "martingale" works and I tried it with a demo account in Binarias (literally, casino style, without any analysis).

I "won" (the quotation marks are because it was a demo) US$$ 173 in less than half an hour. Now, I WOULD NEVER DO IT IN REAL TIME AND I DO NOT RECOMMEND ANYONE TO DO IT, simply because you are at the mercy of chance and it is very dangerous.

Beyond the fact that mathematical probabilities play in your favor, you have to have enough capital to withstand a bad streak and a psychology that is proof against everything so as not to despair.

I even smell that in the demo they sweeten you up so that it seems easy and then in the real one they fleece you.