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Just the other day, someone dropped a bombshell: "We're already in phase 4 of the current bull run." What?!!😲😲 Are we done already? Is this it? Are we not going to see a 10,000x rally 🚀🚀like some of the moonshot altcoins in the past?
At first, I thought it was a bit premature to say we're in phase 4. I mean, Bitcoin's still trading below $100,000, and the overall market sentiment is still relatively bullish. But then I started digging deeper.
As I checked CoinMarketCap, I saw that Bitcoin's dominance is sitting at 55.6%. That's a pretty significant chunk of the market capitalization. When Bitcoin takes up that much space, it can be tough for altcoins to breathe. And that's exactly what's happening - most altcoins are bearish today.
But here's the thing: phase 4 of a bull run is typically characterized by a period of consolidation and distribution. It's like the market is taking a deep breath before the final push upwards. And if we're already in phase 4, that means we might be due for a period of altcoin rallies.
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is currently at 79, which tells me that the market sentiment is pretty neutral right now. It's not extremely bullish or bearish, just... meh. And when the sentiment is neutral, it can be hard for altcoins to gain any real traction.
But the Altcoin Season Index is currently at 73, which tells me that altcoins are not performing as well as Bitcoin right now. It's like they're trying to get attention at the party, but Bitcoin's just too loud.
So, are we done already? I don't think so. I think we're just taking a breather before the next leg up. And when that happens, altcoins might just rally in a big way. We might not see a 10,000x rally, but we could definitely see some significant gains.
So, don't lose hope, fellow crypto enthusiasts. We're not done yet. The party's just getting started.
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Okay, let's talk about one of the hardest truths in this space – the elusive 5x, 10x, 20x...
Well, we've all been there - caught up in the hype, dreaming of investing in that one coin that's going to moon and make us rich beyond our wildest dreams, the cryptocurrency market is genuinelyknown for this. But let's get real – not every cryptocurrency can 10x in value. In fact, some are already so big that it's "mathematically" impossible for them to achieve that kind of growth.
Take XRP for example. As of the time of writing this, XRP is hovering around $2.5, with a market cap of $146.03 billion. To reach a price of $5, its market cap would need to increase to $292.06 billion. That's approximately 65% of Ethereum's current market cap. And if we want XRP to reach the same price as ETH, i.e. over $3.5k? 😳😳 Forget about it my friend! Its market cap would need to balloon to a staggering $1.65 trillion. For context, the entire crypto market cap is $3.82 trillion with BTC scooping approximately 51.33% of it or $1.96 trillion. What I am saying is that, at just $2.5, XRP has an overwhelming market cap. How much market cap do we need to see its price rise to $100, $1,000...?
You get it?
But XRP is not alone. Other big-name cryptocurrencies like Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash are also capped. Litecoin, for example, has a market cap of around $10 billion. To reach a price of $1,000 in this bull run (which is still a far cry from Bitcoin's current price), its market cap would need to increase to a whopping $65 billion. That's a 650% increase, which is just not sustainable.
And then there's Bitcoin Cash, which has a market cap of around $5 billion. To reach a price of $1,000, its market cap would need to increase to a staggering $50 billion. That's a 1,000% increase, which is just not realistic in the few months left until we start digging dip.
But don't just take my word for it. Let's look at a striking example. Ethereum's price skyrocketed from around $8 in January 2017 to over $4,000 in 2024. That's a staggering 50,000% increase over 7 years. However, Ethereum started from a relatively low market capitalization, allowing it to experience exponential growth. In contrast, XRP's current market capitalization is significantly higher, making it much more challenging to achieve similar growth. Despite Ethereum's impressive 50,000% increase, XRP's market cap would need to grow by an unsustainable amount to achieve a similar price increase. This underscores the reality that XRP, and other large-cap cryptocurrencies, are capped and may never experience the same level of growth as smaller-cap cryptocurrencies like Ethereum was in 2017.
So, what's the takeaway here? It's simple: some cryptocurrencies are just too big to achieve that elusive 10x increase in value. Their market caps are already too high, and the numbers just don't add up even if you keep HODLing. Better opportunities lie out there.
Now, I know some of you are going to disagree with me on this. You're going to say that I'm being too pessimistic, that the cryptocurrency market is unpredictable, and that anything can happen. And you know what? You're right. The cryptocurrency market is unpredictable, and anything can happen.
But let's be realistic here. We need to look at the numbers and understand the limitations of each cryptocurrency. We can't just blindly invest in a coin because we think it's going to moon. We need to do our research, understand the market dynamics, and make informed decisions.
So, the next time you're tempted to invest in a cryptocurrency because you think it's going to 10x, take a step back and look at the numbers. Is it really possible for that coin to achieve that kind of growth? Or are you just getting caught up in the hype?
Disclaimer: The cryptocurrencies mentioned in this article, including XRP, are used solely for illustration purposes. This article should not be considered as trading/financial advice. The decision to HODL, buy, or sell XRP or any other cryptocurrency is entirely yours. Always DYOR!
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