s4shebi

BTC keeps showing incredible strength. Congratulations to those who are making good profits!
I'm still out of the market for a few weeks now. At this point, it doesn’t matter if it reaches $98k, $99k, or if it goes above $100k. The local top could occur at any moment, and this movement could be fully retraced. Some of the reasons why I'm still being cautious:

-Sentiment is extremely bullish here. Retail is piling in massively, aping into memecoins. The memecoin rally feels overextended, and that's unhealthy. A strong correction is overdue, and it will likely affect the entire market.

-Trump is still not in power. The Democrats are still governing the country, and despite saying the transfer of power would be ''smooth and in a peaceful way'', they are already trying to provoke a big war. In my view, this is a desperate attempt to apply the martial law or/and leave Trump in a complicated position. By allowing and helping Ukraine to send long distance missiles into Russian territory, the situation is escalating. I don't want this to happen. Most people don't want this to happen. But sadly, it's not something we can control, because there are real psychopaths in the elite circles of control. We can just pray and adapt.

-Also, the U.S. government holds 208,109 BTC (currently $20.15B). They recently got approval to sell the Silk Road Bitcoin, likely through auctions or gradual sales. Honestly, it wouldn’t be surprising if they timed it to tank BTC prices and make the next administration look bad—or just to make sure they don’t leave those BTC behind for them to use.

-The dollar has been showing strength while BTC was pumping, forming a divergence.

-Many altcoins are showing weakness and testing major levels as resistance. It's mostly a BTC and memecoins run, which is never a good sign. Not ruling out a few final altcoins pumps, but if my thesis is right, they could dump 60-80% over the next few weeks.

The analysis is much more complex than this. These are just some of the reasons why I prefer to avoid being exposed to the market right now. I don't see this as a wasted opportunity or a 'missed train'. Sometimes, it's better to let trains pass and wait for the one that will safely take you where you truly want to go.

This is just my opinion and what I'm doing. Not trying to convince anyone.

Stay safe everyone.

#Bitcoin - What’s Next?
The big Sunday Report: all you need to know.

🚩 TA/LCA/Psychological Breakdown: One month ago, for the first time since Bitcoin's all-time high (ATH), it successfully printed a new higher high, pumping past the previous high of $65k. This challenges the widely-discussed theory of higher highs and lower lows, which many bearish analysts were using as evidence that Bitcoin would continue in a downward trend. Currently, Bitcoin is 8.8% below its peak from Tuesday, which is reasonable and a healthy correction considering the massive rally we saw in the last two weeks. This small pullback is HEALTHY! The reason for the current dump is, market starts pricing in the fact that Harris could win the election. Yes, its not super bullish if Kamala Harris wins, but its super bullish if Trump wins! Remember, Elections have historically not changed the Federal Reserve’s commitment to continuous printing, regardless of whether Trump or Harris becomes president. The market is simply pricing in the effects of a possible Harris scenario, hence the "dump." Hold steady, nothing changes in the mid to long term as the overall trend remains upward in the big picture. Election results are expected to be published on November 5th!

Harris = Short term dump, mid long term super bullish

Trump = Short term pump, mid long term super bullish

OTC Out of Stock:

Rumors that OTC desks are running out of Bitcoin appear to be true. There are several new offers for MtGox users who rejected previous offers, as well as for former FTX users with large BTC balances, who have also received new offers from OTC desks. It’s true that the Bitcoin supply at OTC desks is almost out of stock. Several Twitter accounts have reported OTC desks reaching out to buy their BTC. It seems CryptoQuant might be manipulating numbers for its own benefit, their reported OTC desk balance is heavily skewed, showing a balance of 400k BTC on OTC which is wrong! The current range is between 110-130k BTC still in balance, suggesting that 300k BTC has been sold by OTC desks in the last few months since March. Overall, this means buyers are increasingly forced to buy directly from exchanges, which causes more immediate and significant price increases. Everything bought through OTC has 0% price volatility, even if 1M BTC was bought or sold, you will not see it on the charts, soon these players need to buy from exchanges, as BlackRock is doing so by buying through Coinbase! You will see how fast BTC will rise and start to pump big, this is mid term, long term !

Trade Ideas: As mentioned above, the last higher low is in the 65k region, the area we broke above a month ago. We may revisit this region if there is a fear-driven event or scam wick. In such an event, I have set several long orders in the 65k region should the market allow a retest. I am still holding long positions from 53k and 58k and currently have orders set around 65k if the market revisits that area.

#Bitcoin - What's Next?
#BTC
The big Sunday report, all you need to know:
🚩 TA/LCA/Psychological Breakdown: In March, everyone expected things would keep going up once we hit the 70k region. I urgently made a post announcing the start of a massive sideways movement, and you can still see it today. So far, it's been 191 days of sideways movement inside the box I outlined back in March, and things still seem move in this game of ping pong. When we reach 68k and above, people go insane and turn full bull, once drop below 60k, and people become massive bears, calling for 40k or even lower. So what's the goal behind this sideways movement?

I've explained this many times: the ultimate goal of this sideways movement is to play with your emotions. It has always been this way after every halving, there wasn't an immediate bull, instead, there was a sideways period for several months. To be clear, we've filled 13% of the 4-year cycle each time (365 * 4 = 1460 days, 191/1460 x100 = 13%). This is almost identical to previous cycles, which always saw the start of a massive bull run between 12-16% of the cycle. So, what does this mean?

In my opinion, to fill the 16%, we need another 43 days, which would take us to the end of the year, similar to the 2020 bull run that also began in winter. Overall, everyone knows my view: BTC will break out of the box by the end of this sideways movement, whose sole purpose is to exhaust retail traders and allow big players to accumulate as much as they want "cheap." Yes, people will miss out big time, and my targets for this incoming bull run are between 250-300k and 550k by 2030!

Short term: In the short term, a few factors are worth mentioning. First, there’s the MA20 Weekly, which is also shown in the chart; you can clearly see how BTC has consistently closed above this level over the last four weeks. For that reason, any dip to the region of 62k is a strong buy if the market revisits it! We’ve also broken out of the diagonal resistance, but I wouldn’t place too much emphasis on diagonal lines overall. The market looks healthy, and I expect a breakout from this box in the next 2-3 months at the latest! Patience, we've been patient since March! This week on Wednesday META, CoinBase and Microsoft will reveal their quarter earnings which will most likely become better than what market expects which will result in additional green candles in the market.

$BTC