十一

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Hello brothers, after returning from the May Day holiday, I found that this Ethereum market does not show any signs of good news before the upgrade. Today, it has been indecisive all day and has chosen to go down to retest the 1740-1750 range. Overall, the shape of Ethereum's movement has not completely broken the consolidation range, and the box structure still holds, indicating that the market is not very enthusiastic about its upgrade at the moment, so operations can still follow the box strategy.
Before the May Day holiday, I mentioned how to operate within the box: go long around 1740-1750, with a stop loss at 1720. This rebound will not be stopped out. The upper edge of the box has failed to break through multiple times, shorting around 1850. In between, there will be two stop-outs, each with a stop loss of $10, and then on the third entry, you can gain dozens of dollars in profit, which is the ideal scenario.
Since Ethereum is still in a box structure, you can try to enter long now, with a stop loss at 1730, which is the last lowest position. If you get stopped out, then wait until after tomorrow's upgrade to choose the direction to enter.

Do you remember the operation that Ethereum gave everyone? Short below 1820 or around 1840. If you shorted around 1820, you are now making a profit of more than two points. After consolidating for a day, it made a significant drop tonight. It has currently broken below 1780, the central point of this range, and needs to retest downwards.
Pay attention to the lower range of the Ethereum box at 1740-1750. You can rebound near 1750 as it was yesterday, with a stop loss at 1740 or 1720. The short position will have its final take profit point when Ethereum stands above 1780 again, and at least ensure the existing basic profit when trading. A trend change is about to happen. Whether it’s a must-drop during meetings or Ethereum’s upgrade, it could potentially break the current box structure for Ethereum, so be sure to have a stop loss in place.

Ethereum has been in a volatile market for the past few days. The pullback mentioned last night could not drop below 1750. Ethereum has once again risen above 1820, and if it falls below 1820 tonight, it will likely revisit support below, repeatedly washing out short-term profit-taking. The key resistance level on the daily chart is around 1860; only by breaking through this level does Ethereum have a chance to return to 2000. The Pectra upgrade for Ethereum is also gradually approaching, and my suggestion at this node is still to buy low. The space for shorts is really limited.
Enter a short position below 1820 or around 1840, with a stop loss at 1860; the potential isn’t too large, with target levels at 1750 and near 1770.
Buy near the support level around 1750, with a stop loss below 1720.

Briefly discussing the market situation of Ethereum, following the previous analysis of Ethereum’s market, the volatility is not very large. The price has reached the resistance level around 1820, with a slight pullback demand, but currently, the market still belongs to the bulls.
The support level below 1720 can be used for a rebound, with a stop loss at 1700.
Those looking to short can take profit around 1720 and 1700, and if it breaks below, continue to hold.

Last night, Ethereum broke through the key resistance level of 1660, reaching a high of 1838 today. I mentioned last night that if it effectively breaks through, it would reach 1800. Therefore, I advised everyone to short at 1650 with a stop loss set at only 10 dollars, at 1660. In such a large market movement, even if you enter in the wrong direction, a stop loss can effectively reduce losses. I also mentioned yesterday that after breaking out of the consolidation range, the trading strategy should shift to buying on pullbacks. Different patterns and major trends have different operational strategies.
The daily and four-hour charts for Ethereum are both bullish, with a slight pullback in the small timeframe of fifteen minutes continuing to break upwards. The shorts from yesterday may not be able to exit so quickly. The small timeframe resistance level is around 1820, with support levels at 1780 and 1680.

Trading Strategy
For the larger timeframe, the main strategy is to buy on pullbacks. Buy at the support level of 1780 with a stop loss at 1750. Buy near 1700 with a stop loss at 1680.
If it breaks 1840, you can enter long or add to your long position.

Currently, if you have a light short position in the small timeframe, set the stop loss at the previous high of 1840.

Ethereum has been quiet for so long, and it is about to break out of the range at the daily level. If the fluctuation zone is broken, the price of Ethereum may directly break upwards to 1800, of course, this is based on the premise that Ethereum can effectively break through.
Ethereum mentioned yesterday that it is recommended to buy around 1580 and 1550, and it was actually possible to buy at these levels, with a dip just below 1550.
Now that Bitcoin has broken 90,000, it is driving the market to start recovering, and the bullish momentum has just begun. Currently, the trading strategy is mainly to buy on pullbacks. Ethereum's recent rebound has not yet broken the 15-minute high of 1658, and the possibility of a second breakout after a pullback is greater. For Ethereum, trying to enter long positions at 1620 and 1600 during pullbacks is advisable, with a stop loss set at one point. Those who bought at the bottom yesterday can reduce their positions near 1660 and wait for subsequent pullback rebounds. Currently, the main strategy is to buy on pullbacks, and short positions should only be taken near key resistance levels.

Trading Strategy
Short near the current price, betting on a false breakout or weak breakout, with a stop loss at 1660.
Support levels below are 1600, 1580, and 1550, where rebounds can be made, with a stop loss of one point. If the breakout is ineffective, continue to operate within the range.

Ethereum's pullback over the weekend has not been significant, and it has not reached the previously mentioned area around 1550. It has now broken through the resistance level of 1620, and the upper resistance levels have become 1660 and 1700. After the breakout, 1620 is currently being tested. The small support levels below are 1610 and 1600, which if broken, may lead to another pullback towards 1550 and 1560 areas, as the daily chart for Ethereum is still in a consolidation phase. Currently, the small cycle on the fifteen-minute chart is weakening, so a short position can be attempted. The best short position today should be around 1640. Right now, I recommend entering at the lower support levels of 1580 and 1550, with a stop loss at 137, which is a little over a point for the stop loss.

The Bitcoin fluctuation has lasted almost a week, with a box range of 83000-86000. Strong support below is at 82000, with a stop-loss level; if it breaks below, it may retest 80000 and 78000. Strong resistance above is at 86000, and if it breaks above, we could see 87500 and 90000.

Trading Strategy
For the longer timeframe, one can wait for a breakout of the box, as directions (up or down) are relatively easier to judge.
For the shorter timeframe, one can attempt to short near 85000 and 86000, betting on a lack of strength in the breakout, with a stop-loss at the previous high of 86500.
In the shorter timeframe, look for a rebound near 83000, with a stop-loss at 82000.
The weekend market may not change direction quickly, so one can trade in smaller timeframes while being ready to reverse for a breakout.

Last night, Ethereum had a brief surge, then experienced a sharp drop influenced by Powell's speech. However, the support around 1550 is strong, leading to an immediate rebound. After a second retest, it started to rebound during the day. Such a second retest near a key support level can be an opportunity to bet on a rebound, with a stop loss set at the low of the sharp drop. This is one way to operate in this market condition.
Currently, trades on Ethereum can be conducted based on the range, with a range of 1550-1610.
Operation Logic
Short near 1610 and 1600, with a stop loss at 1620.
Long near 1550 and 1560, with a stop loss at 1537.
When the price approaches the trendline, you can hold onto the momentum position a bit longer and wait for a breakout. If it weakens, then consider reversing the position. The short-term trend is weakening now, so it might be possible to attempt short positions near the resistance level. This range has about three points of operational space. If the entry pressure level is strongly broken, consider closing immediately and chasing long.

After Ethereum broke through the descending trend line at the daily level, it rose to around 1700 and faced resistance, leading to a pullback. In the short term, on the 15-minute chart, we can see two retests around 1550, which is a key support level. From a technical perspective, as long as it does not break below 1550 again, Ethereum's price is expected to rise again in the short term. Currently, in the short term, it has not broken below 1550, and short positions should wait for an opportunity to enter. Before Ethereum truly rises, it might drop to around 1500 or even 1470.
Short-term support level for Ethereum is 1550, with resistance around 1580.
Trading strategy: Enter long positions on a breakout above 1580 or a retest at 1560, with a stop loss at 1550.
For short positions, wait for a breakdown below 1550 or around 1580 to enter, with a stop loss of one to two points at the support levels of 1500 and 1470. Tonight, Powell will speak, and market fluctuations may be significant, so be mindful of the risks.

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and SOL are all near key support levels. If Ethereum breaks, look for 1480; if SOL breaks, look for 114, 110. If Bitcoin breaks, look for 78000; long positions should be mindful of risks or take profit, and short positions should consider the timing of entry.

Ethereum has currently formed a price channel in a small cycle, with a resistance level of 1580 above and a key support level of 1550 below. This is the second attempt today to break through 1580, and it is currently in a volatile upward trend. When the trend line is broken, it is an opportunity for long positions to exit and a chance for short positions to enter. Long positions should wait for the resistance level of 1580 to be broken before entering, with a stop loss at 1550.

The Bitcoin daily level has rebounded back to the vicinity of the downward trend line, with bulls patiently waiting for a breakout. Its short-term performance indicates a breakout around 40,000, while a weakness may prompt a reduction in positions for risk avoidance. The four-hour chart shows a strong bullish trend, with resistance near 40,000. The 15-minute chart has already broken through yesterday's volatile range, and bears need to be cautious. Operational Logic: Bears can attempt to short near the one-hour high of 83,500, as this position may attract many short sellers, betting on a double top. Set a stop loss at 84,000 with a small position; bulls should not have too large of a position at the head of the bullish trend. If the price breaks down to 82,000, consider increasing the position appropriately. Bulls should reduce positions near 83,588-84,000 based on the situation, and any increase in positions should wait for a breakout and retest before considering.

Ethereum has been closing with upper shadow candles around 1500 in the small cycle, with heavy selling pressure, unable to go up. The stop loss given in the last post was hit, and the small cycle is indeed weakening, unable to rise. If it goes down from this position, it will form a double top on the 15-minute chart. The entry logic is fine, but the stop loss was set too tight, or perhaps the entry was too rushed. Try not to chase long positions too much, and be cautious with long positions. If you're unsure, it's better to do less; in this kind of market, not losing is gaining.

This morning, I mentioned the small cycle pullback, encouraging everyone to find a position to short, and provided the pullback level of 1400-1410 to avoid profit giving back, suggesting to take profit when it looks good.
The larger cycle on the four-hour chart has not shown a direction yet, and the MACD is getting close, which indicates it's time to choose a direction. Let's observe the direction of the U.S. stock market opening, as it will be somewhat influenced by news and the U.S. stocks. The recent market trends have been similar, with weak rebounds during the day and inexplicable sharp drops at night, resembling the recent entry patterns. Shorting around 1480, with a stop loss at 1500, a one-point stop loss, and the lower level can first target 1400; if it breaks, continue to hold.

The recent China-U.S. trade war has escalated again, and the situation is becoming increasingly tense. The U.S. has taken strong measures, raising tariffs on Chinese goods to 104%, displaying a posture of comprehensive suppression. China is not to be outdone, quickly retaliating by raising tariffs on U.S. goods to 84%, responding tit for tat without yielding. And just today, the U.S. Secretary of the Treasury has thrown out a new 'bomb', threatening to delist Chinese stocks from the U.S. market. This series of actions has undoubtedly made the global market anxious, and the cryptocurrency sector is facing even harsher conditions.

Every escalation of the trade war feels like a bucket of cold water poured over the global economy. Tariffs soaring, supply chains obstructed, market confidence wavering, and investors have long become startled. The threat of delisting Chinese stocks has directly choked off the flow of capital. The cryptocurrency sector, as a high-risk and high-volatility field, is extremely sensitive to macroeconomic policy fluctuations, and now caught in the crossfire of the China-U.S. game, it is akin to walking on thin ice. The price fluctuations of cryptocurrencies are already enough to raise heart rates, and with such a geopolitical 'big weapon', players' emotions can only be described as 'agonizing'.

Looking back at these years in the cryptocurrency sector, from wild price surges and crashes to intense regulatory pressure, and now being affected by the trade war, it has truly been a nerve-wracking journey. The shadow of the trade war not only puts pressure on the real economy but also makes the survival environment for digital assets even harsher. The funding chain is tense, market sentiment is low, and even the financing and promotion of blockchain projects have become extremely difficult. Brothers in the cryptocurrency sector must tremble while watching the candlestick charts, all while guarding against 'black swan' events in policy; this kind of life is truly hard to bear. If the trade war intensifies, then this market has yet to hit bottom.

Ethereum broke through a small price channel this morning, accelerating the decline and hitting a new low. The short entry point provided to everyone yesterday has already gained seven points. The small cycle is rebounding with reduced volume, forming a pin bar, touching the lower boundary of the price channel. If it can't go up, it will retrace. Take profit for shorts depends on the individual, with support around 1400. If it breaks below, it can still be held.

The upward trend line of Bitcoin was broken during the day today, rebounding to around 80,000 in the afternoon but unable to rise further, just near the trend line, facing resistance. Tonight, Bitcoin is likely to pull back first. A pullback near 80,000 with a stop loss set at 81,200, and support levels at 78,000 and 76,500. This position is suitable for a short position.
Bitcoin's rebound is quite decent; at this position, a long position should be taken for a rebound. Long positions can wait for a breakout of the downward trend line and for Bitcoin to stand above 80,000 before entering, or enter on a pullback near 78,000 for a bottom-fishing opportunity, with a stop loss of just one point.
It's another time for a market change. Due to network issues, I just couldn't send this out, there was a delay, but it can serve as a reference.

以太坊今天属于是急跌之后的，又出一个收敛三角形。上方压力位在1600，下方支撑位1550附近，刚才15分钟放量下跌之后，属于受到美股开盘的影响。我从不会去猜测后续方向具体如何，没有太大的意义，当形态走出来去等破位即可，带好止损，被市场打损也不要怕，再等机会就是了。
这根15分钟收针，后续再次跌破1560就可以去做空了，止损设置在1600即可，我个人是更偏向于后续继续二探。有做多单的止损带在1550即可，后续突破1600，目标位在1650，1700，做多的可以做个参考。