ShanghaoJin
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I think since Trump wants to spend money, the noise will eventually lead to approval. Here are a few opinions:
1. Dollar debt and leverage are the foundation of global finance.
Just like the underlying system of Windows is C language, any language derived from it cannot replace the foundation. Euros, Renminbi, and even BTC cannot.
The foundation of the dollar is U.S. Treasury bonds, so no matter how much debt America borrows, it will not have credit issues.
2. Austerity is by no means a solution.
Tightening leads to recession, and recession brings about a series of other problems.
I even suspect that the feud between Elon and Trump is just about "unequal distribution of spoils." Trump has too great an appetite for power, exposure, and benefits, unwilling to share. Meanwhile, Elon uses the moral high ground of Doge to make a point.
However, Doge has completely stalled, and the market has removed the biggest mid-term risk.
A person addicted to drugs can never quit on their own;
A country cannot get out of deficit through saving;
Once the debt cycle begins, it will never end.
3. Even purely from a debt perspective, the overall situation in the U.S. is currently far better than that in East Asia, Europe, and Japan (Germany cannot be compared as an isolated case).
On the other hand, loose fiscal policy, which avoids tightening and recession, will also improve U.S. household balance sheets and corporate earnings.
4. The leap from the monetary cycle to the fiscal cycle.
The debt cycle is not only occurring in the U.S., but is also simultaneously spreading globally on a larger scale.
We see China’s apocalyptic self-rescue, while also experiencing new fiscal spending in Germany. The difference from the monetary cycle is:
A. The effects of fiscal spending are more immediate and easier to convert into inflation.
B. The demand for funds and the supply of debt will also keep interest rates at a higher level.
The U.S. will continue the fiscal cycle that began with the pandemic, and the impact on the market can be referenced back to China after 2008. In this round of irresponsible global spending, we are sure to see many countries and regions facing fiscal and monetary crises, mixed with periodic inflation.
Investment choices: assets with profits and growth are superior to value-storing assets in this overall cycle (high interest rates will lead value-storing assets to all have negative carry).
1. Dollar debt and leverage are the foundation of global finance.
Just like the underlying system of Windows is C language, any language derived from it cannot replace the foundation. Euros, Renminbi, and even BTC cannot.
The foundation of the dollar is U.S. Treasury bonds, so no matter how much debt America borrows, it will not have credit issues.
2. Austerity is by no means a solution.
Tightening leads to recession, and recession brings about a series of other problems.
I even suspect that the feud between Elon and Trump is just about "unequal distribution of spoils." Trump has too great an appetite for power, exposure, and benefits, unwilling to share. Meanwhile, Elon uses the moral high ground of Doge to make a point.
However, Doge has completely stalled, and the market has removed the biggest mid-term risk.
A person addicted to drugs can never quit on their own;
A country cannot get out of deficit through saving;
Once the debt cycle begins, it will never end.
3. Even purely from a debt perspective, the overall situation in the U.S. is currently far better than that in East Asia, Europe, and Japan (Germany cannot be compared as an isolated case).
On the other hand, loose fiscal policy, which avoids tightening and recession, will also improve U.S. household balance sheets and corporate earnings.
4. The leap from the monetary cycle to the fiscal cycle.
The debt cycle is not only occurring in the U.S., but is also simultaneously spreading globally on a larger scale.
We see China’s apocalyptic self-rescue, while also experiencing new fiscal spending in Germany. The difference from the monetary cycle is:
A. The effects of fiscal spending are more immediate and easier to convert into inflation.
B. The demand for funds and the supply of debt will also keep interest rates at a higher level.
The U.S. will continue the fiscal cycle that began with the pandemic, and the impact on the market can be referenced back to China after 2008. In this round of irresponsible global spending, we are sure to see many countries and regions facing fiscal and monetary crises, mixed with periodic inflation.
Investment choices: assets with profits and growth are superior to value-storing assets in this overall cycle (high interest rates will lead value-storing assets to all have negative carry).
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Take a look at the cumulative net buying volume of Binance BTC futures over the past year. Do you understand what game BTC is playing now? Spot and futures, stepping on the left foot with the right foot.
Those who understand will understand at a glance, and those who don't, I won't bother to explain.
Those who understand will understand at a glance, and those who don't, I won't bother to explain.
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