Shang_EMC Labs
EMC Labs Cofounder
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EMC Labs: Buyers are reversing the massive selling pressure of the past week
Based on several data we monitor, you can judge the trend of BTC by yourself:
1. GBTC had a net outflow of US$579 million in the first two trading days, and other ETFs had a net inflow of US$819 million; the overall net inflow was US$240 million;
2. From 10th to 12th, BTC recorded the largest single-day CEX deposit amount in 12 months for three consecutive days, with a total of over 300,000 Bitcoins; however, the withdrawal volume increased simultaneously in the past few days, and the final net deposit was only 16,000 Bitcoins;
3. From the 13th to the 14th, the deposit amount of BTC dropped rapidly to 58,000, while the withdrawal amount increased simultaneously, and CEX had a net outflow of 20,000 Bitcoins; therefore, from the 10th to the 14th, there was a net outflow, which can be regarded as the buyer’s top. Withheld the selling pressure;
4. Buying Power of US$3.3-3.6 billion accumulated in CEX from 10th to 14th, and this buyer’s power has not been reduced. This indicator is a comparison of Bitcoin/ETH net deposits/inflows and the net value of stablecoins on CEX;
5. Stablecoin minting increased by US$1.7 billion in the past week, plus US$2.1 billion in the first week of January, adding US$3.8 billion. The entry rate of external funds remains at the high level of the past three months.
Based on several data we monitor, you can judge the trend of BTC by yourself:
1. GBTC had a net outflow of US$579 million in the first two trading days, and other ETFs had a net inflow of US$819 million; the overall net inflow was US$240 million;
2. From 10th to 12th, BTC recorded the largest single-day CEX deposit amount in 12 months for three consecutive days, with a total of over 300,000 Bitcoins; however, the withdrawal volume increased simultaneously in the past few days, and the final net deposit was only 16,000 Bitcoins;
3. From the 13th to the 14th, the deposit amount of BTC dropped rapidly to 58,000, while the withdrawal amount increased simultaneously, and CEX had a net outflow of 20,000 Bitcoins; therefore, from the 10th to the 14th, there was a net outflow, which can be regarded as the buyer’s top. Withheld the selling pressure;
4. Buying Power of US$3.3-3.6 billion accumulated in CEX from 10th to 14th, and this buyer’s power has not been reduced. This indicator is a comparison of Bitcoin/ETH net deposits/inflows and the net value of stablecoins on CEX;
5. Stablecoin minting increased by US$1.7 billion in the past week, plus US$2.1 billion in the first week of January, adding US$3.8 billion. The entry rate of external funds remains at the high level of the past three months.
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Are there any BTC ETFs in Hong Kong? must have! In the past few days, through in-depth exchanges with partners in Hong Kong, we have come up with one determination and two competitive advantages:
1. Great determination; the Hong Kong regulatory authorities issued a document stating that they would accept spot ETFs before the US SEC approved 11 spot ETFs. This attitude is very different from the US regulatory authorities and is more proactive;
2. Support physical subscription: that is, the subscription of Bitcoin or other virtual assets. This is equivalent to opening up a broad avenue for existing currency holders to comply;
3. Support index ETF: that is, similar to BTC+ETH or other mainstream tokens, rather than tracking a single asset like the current United States; if the index ETF is passed, this will greatly increase the range of investor choices.
So, do you think this product is competitive?
1. Great determination; the Hong Kong regulatory authorities issued a document stating that they would accept spot ETFs before the US SEC approved 11 spot ETFs. This attitude is very different from the US regulatory authorities and is more proactive;
2. Support physical subscription: that is, the subscription of Bitcoin or other virtual assets. This is equivalent to opening up a broad avenue for existing currency holders to comply;
3. Support index ETF: that is, similar to BTC+ETH or other mainstream tokens, rather than tracking a single asset like the current United States; if the index ETF is passed, this will greatly increase the range of investor choices.
So, do you think this product is competitive?
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BTC ETF is not Smart Money, it is more like a collection of retail investors.
In fact, the first BTC spot ETF was Canada's Purpose, which was established in February 2021. At that time, Bitcoin was worth US$57,000, and two of them reached a scale of US$1 billion. Then it increased all the way to 1.7 billion US dollars, and then as Bitcoin turned bearish, it lasted for almost a year. When Bitcoin was more than 20,000 US dollars, 50% of the positions were cleared; a perfect interpretation of the four-character strategy of chasing the rise and killing the fall😅😅
In fact, the first BTC spot ETF was Canada's Purpose, which was established in February 2021. At that time, Bitcoin was worth US$57,000, and two of them reached a scale of US$1 billion. Then it increased all the way to 1.7 billion US dollars, and then as Bitcoin turned bearish, it lasted for almost a year. When Bitcoin was more than 20,000 US dollars, 50% of the positions were cleared; a perfect interpretation of the four-character strategy of chasing the rise and killing the fall😅😅
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Negative challenges of ETFs and 4 possibilities of “killing” Bitcoin
I have said too much about the benefits of ETFs, and I cannot overestimate this historic moment. Now, let’s talk about another dimension that I have been thinking about recently: the negative challenges of ETFs and the four possibilities of “killing” Bitcoin: 1. Black boxing of the asset side: Last night in Space, I talked about the possible long-term negative impacts of ETFs: That is, when the market value of its holdings exceeds 30%, plus the 10% in CEX, the 10% lost and the "coining" of derivatives, the black box holdings account for more than 50%, and it actually breaks through Bitcoin. Decentralization and liquidity on the asset side. In fact, the market value of the already existing Bitcoin spot + futures ETF, including Grayscale, has reached approximately US$33 billion, accounting for 3.5% of the circulation ratio. I believe that in the next two cycles, it is really possible to see the market value accounting for more than 20%; 2. Nationalization of the mining side: miners no longer enjoy a one-year return on investment and an annualized income of more than 30% in four years, but gradually The average rate of return in the mainstream money market will be below 5%, and the national team, various pension funds, and university foundations will become the mainstream of mining. Similarly, they will seriously threaten the decentralization of Bitcoin; 3. New Cold War entity sanctions: With the extreme mainstreaming of Bitcoin, Bitcoin will become a weapon in the game between China, the United States and other major powers. Entity list sanctions targeting specific wallet addresses will become increasingly common on both the mining side and the asset side. This will greatly challenge the core value of Bitcoin’s super-sovereign asset; 4. Extreme deflation brings self-freezing: Bitcoin Constant was originally used by Satoshi Nakamoto to fight against the central bank’s over-issuance of currency, but when its consensus enters the mainstream world, people will Learn the basics that any Bitcoin spent today will be worth more tomorrow. This makes the hold sentiment get heavier and heavier, until it reaches the extreme "freeze" and no one uses Bitcoin; the solution: What makes you successful may also destroy you, and the genius design of Satoshi Nakamoto is the true meaning of Bitcoin. threaten. How to break the situation? Of course, you can ignore it. These things will most likely happen after Bitcoin’s market value surpasses gold (the price is above $700,000). But in the end we have to face it. I believe that the decentralization of Bitcoin brings about super-sovereignty and free competition on entities. It will generate natural game forces and allow asymmetry to always exist in the Bitcoin world to fight against certain The actual control of a country or certain type of entity.
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48,000 is a delicate threshold, difficult to pass! The price of BTC is only one step away from the maximum holding area of 48,000 US dollars. The funds on the market have given the arduous task of liberating this cluster of locked chips of up to 610,000 BTC formed before April 2022 to the new funds of ETFs to overcome. ETF new funds, It's your showtime. By 0xweilan
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[EMC Labs Market Observation: January 10th became the biggest selling day for BTC in a year, and BTC is expected to fluctuate upward after the withdrawal of speculative funds] On January 10th, after the BTC ETF was approved, the speculative funds that had entered the market began to sell aggressively, selling about 67,977 BTC, the selling capital was as high as 3 billion US dollars. Yesterday was the biggest selling day for BTC in a year, causing the price of BTC to fluctuate violently, with an amplitude as high as 7.4%. According to EMC Labs data engine monitoring, the daily number of BTC entering the exchange ranges from 20,000 to 30,000, which nearly tripled yesterday. In terms of stablecoins, since January, there has been an inflow of up to 2.7 billion US dollars, forming new purchasing power on exchanges to hedge the withdrawn speculative funds. EMC Labs believes that judging from the current situation, the peak of speculative selling pressure of "selling facts" may have passed. The price of BTC increased by 1.18% and stabilized at US$46,000, without a sharp retracement. The supply of stablecoins is sufficient, and the market outlook coupled with ETFs With the inflow of funds, BTC is expected to fluctuate upward, pushing crypto assets into the fifth round of bull market.
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