ALISHBA SOZAR
Crypto trader | DeFi & Web3 insights | Charts & alpha daily ๐๐ Bitcoin ๐ธ 966954878 | X : @ALISHBASOZAR
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Iโm not an altcoin season believer,
but this looks way too obvious.
Am I the only one seeing this?
but this looks way too obvious.
Am I the only one seeing this?
Something big is coming very very soon.
Be patient. Keep showing up every day.
And never ever ever give up.
I promise you - I feel it.
Be patient. Keep showing up every day.
And never ever ever give up.
I promise you - I feel it.
๐จ The U.S. and the EU are selling Bitcoin like thereโs no tomorrowโฆ but ASIA IS BUYING
This chart shows everything most people are missing.
U.S. and EU sessions are dumping BTC nonstop, while Asia is doing the exact opposite.
Same asset but different behavior.
Look closely:
โ US session (blue): straight bleed
โ EU session (purple): steady distribution
โ Asia (orange): relentless accumulation
Every major leg down in BTC lately has happened during US trading hours.
Not overnight, not in Asia, not on weekends.
Why?
BECAUSE THE U.S. ARE THE ONES KEEPING THE PRICE DOWN.
US and European flows right now are driven by:
โ ETF rebalancing
โ Year-end tax selling
โ Risk-off macro positioning
โ Funds reducing exposure before an economic slowdown
Asia, on the other hand, is treating these dips as a gift.
This pattern isnโt new either.
Go back to:
โ 2019
โ March 2020
โ Late 2022
Same story every time.
The West sells first, Asia accumulates quietly and the price eventually follows Asia.
If you wonder why BTC dump during the day, this is exactly why.
Pay attention to who is buying, not just what price is doing.
This chart shows everything most people are missing.
U.S. and EU sessions are dumping BTC nonstop, while Asia is doing the exact opposite.
Same asset but different behavior.
Look closely:
โ US session (blue): straight bleed
โ EU session (purple): steady distribution
โ Asia (orange): relentless accumulation
Every major leg down in BTC lately has happened during US trading hours.
Not overnight, not in Asia, not on weekends.
Why?
BECAUSE THE U.S. ARE THE ONES KEEPING THE PRICE DOWN.
US and European flows right now are driven by:
โ ETF rebalancing
โ Year-end tax selling
โ Risk-off macro positioning
โ Funds reducing exposure before an economic slowdown
Asia, on the other hand, is treating these dips as a gift.
This pattern isnโt new either.
Go back to:
โ 2019
โ March 2020
โ Late 2022
Same story every time.
The West sells first, Asia accumulates quietly and the price eventually follows Asia.
If you wonder why BTC dump during the day, this is exactly why.
Pay attention to who is buying, not just what price is doing.
after long time of trying, thereโs a moment where you just canโt click anymore.
losses drain you, doubt eats you alive, and every voice in your head tells you to stop.
but that tiny buy you place in that exact momentโฆ
changes everything.
survivors arenโt the ones who win non-stop,
theyโre the ones who still click when it feels impossible.
losses drain you, doubt eats you alive, and every voice in your head tells you to stop.
but that tiny buy you place in that exact momentโฆ
changes everything.
survivors arenโt the ones who win non-stop,
theyโre the ones who still click when it feels impossible.
Leverage creates targets before it creates opportunity.
Your liquidation is often someone else's objective.
Your liquidation is often someone else's objective.
Not enough people are talking about this.
JPMorgan accepting Bitcoin as collateral for lending turns crypto into usable balance-sheet money without selling.
- Holders borrowing avoids taxes and market sell pressure.
- Frees massive liquidity that can be deployed elsewhere.
- Borrowing cost of 6โ8% keeps upside exposure.
- Once one major bank does this, others canโt sit out.
- Crypto shifts from โrisk asset you sellโ to collateral you use.
Net effect:
Less forced selling, tighter supply & crypto becoming normal financial plumbing rather than something you exit for capital.
JPMorgan accepting Bitcoin as collateral for lending turns crypto into usable balance-sheet money without selling.
- Holders borrowing avoids taxes and market sell pressure.
- Frees massive liquidity that can be deployed elsewhere.
- Borrowing cost of 6โ8% keeps upside exposure.
- Once one major bank does this, others canโt sit out.
- Crypto shifts from โrisk asset you sellโ to collateral you use.
Net effect:
Less forced selling, tighter supply & crypto becoming normal financial plumbing rather than something you exit for capital.
You hear about the guy who put $500 into a memecoin and made 100k, but you don't hear about the hundreds who put $1,000 and are left with $0.10
๐จ BREAKING: JAPAN DUMPS BITCOIN
Japanโs inflation just hit 3.0%, now above U.S. inflation for the first time in 46 years.
For every 1% Japan runs hotter than the U.S., an estimated $100B in Japanese bonds can be dumped as capital reallocates.
At the same time, odds of the next Bank of Japan rate hike are climbing.
Why this is bad for crypto ๐
โข Higher BOJ rates forced a huge Bitcoin dump, as it was many times earlier
โข Global liquidity tightens as Japan shifts from easy money to restraint
โข Less liquidity = weaker bids, harsher volatility, deeper drawdowns
The bear market is coming ๐ป
Japanโs inflation just hit 3.0%, now above U.S. inflation for the first time in 46 years.
For every 1% Japan runs hotter than the U.S., an estimated $100B in Japanese bonds can be dumped as capital reallocates.
At the same time, odds of the next Bank of Japan rate hike are climbing.
Why this is bad for crypto ๐
โข Higher BOJ rates forced a huge Bitcoin dump, as it was many times earlier
โข Global liquidity tightens as Japan shifts from easy money to restraint
โข Less liquidity = weaker bids, harsher volatility, deeper drawdowns
The bear market is coming ๐ป
There is no logical explanation for this.
"The bear market is here and Bitcoin is heading down to $65,000"
That's what Fidelity's director of global macro Jurrien Timmer thinks.
While Jurrien is bullish on $BTC in the long term, he believes that Bitcoin is once again following its historical 4-year cycle driven by its halvings.
So BTCโs ATH of $126K on October 6th was the cycle top in both โprice and time.โ
Based on the 4-year cycle, Fidelity is predicting that 2026 will be a down year with support for Bitcoin currently at the $65-75K price range.
What's your take on this?
That's what Fidelity's director of global macro Jurrien Timmer thinks.
While Jurrien is bullish on $BTC in the long term, he believes that Bitcoin is once again following its historical 4-year cycle driven by its halvings.
So BTCโs ATH of $126K on October 6th was the cycle top in both โprice and time.โ
Based on the 4-year cycle, Fidelity is predicting that 2026 will be a down year with support for Bitcoin currently at the $65-75K price range.
What's your take on this?
๐ฏ๏ธ HISTORY DOESNโT WARN โ IT RHYMES
Two different sources.
Two different centuries.
One identical message.
๐ Benner Cycle (1870)
๐ Modern Market Mapping
1999 โ High prices โ SELL
2007 โ High prices โ SELL
2023 โ Accumulation โ BUY
2026 โ โGood Timesโ โ SELL EVERYTHING
Markets donโt collapse at fear.
They collapse at belief.
2026 is not a crash year.
It is a risk-transfer year.
Smart money exits quietly.
Narratives peak.
Retail arrives confidently.
Crashes come after good times
never during them.
Those laughing at cycles today
will be forced to respect them tomorrow.
๐ป Timing is not prediction
๐ป It is survival
History doesnโt repeat.
Human behavior does.
Two different sources.
Two different centuries.
One identical message.
๐ Benner Cycle (1870)
๐ Modern Market Mapping
1999 โ High prices โ SELL
2007 โ High prices โ SELL
2023 โ Accumulation โ BUY
2026 โ โGood Timesโ โ SELL EVERYTHING
Markets donโt collapse at fear.
They collapse at belief.
2026 is not a crash year.
It is a risk-transfer year.
Smart money exits quietly.
Narratives peak.
Retail arrives confidently.
Crashes come after good times
never during them.
Those laughing at cycles today
will be forced to respect them tomorrow.
๐ป Timing is not prediction
๐ป It is survival
History doesnโt repeat.
Human behavior does.
Has anyone noticed how the entire internet has completely died off in the last few years?
It's not just the crypto space.
Almost every industry feels the same.
When was the last time you saw a hyped video game release?
Or a new song / artist everyone was talking about?
Even movies and TV shows donโt really hit anymore.
They drop, get attention for a few days, and people move on.
No new apps or platforms that actually grab attention.
No new influencers that everyone knows or talks about.
Most things now pop up, get shoved in your face for a bit, and then disappear.
Nothing sticks anymore.
Especially since after COVID.
Why?
It's not just the crypto space.
Almost every industry feels the same.
When was the last time you saw a hyped video game release?
Or a new song / artist everyone was talking about?
Even movies and TV shows donโt really hit anymore.
They drop, get attention for a few days, and people move on.
No new apps or platforms that actually grab attention.
No new influencers that everyone knows or talks about.
Most things now pop up, get shoved in your face for a bit, and then disappear.
Nothing sticks anymore.
Especially since after COVID.
Why?
"WHAT THE F*** YOU MEAN U WANT MORTGAGE BASED ON YOUR VARIATIONAL POINTS??"
ALMOST EVERY BITCOINER I KNOW WHO GAVE PRICE PREDICTIONS FOR THE END OF 2025 WAS WRONG, INCLUDING MYSELF. AS A WHOLE WE WERE OFF SUBSTANTIALLY WITH OUR ESTIMATES.
NOW TELL ME WHAT HAPPENS IN 2026.
$BTC
NOW TELL ME WHAT HAPPENS IN 2026.
$BTC
Delete one forever
Youโd probably be profitable by now if you just stuck to one strategy instead of changing it every time you lose a few trades
Most of what you see on social media from traders is fake
So many will only ever show their wins, or completely fabricate their trading results in order to sell a course
The material items that they flex come from teaching, not trading
Comparing yourself with these people online will only make you depressed because you wonder why you canโt do the same
The only person you should be comparing yourself to is the person you were last month
Not guys online sharing fake results
So many will only ever show their wins, or completely fabricate their trading results in order to sell a course
The material items that they flex come from teaching, not trading
Comparing yourself with these people online will only make you depressed because you wonder why you canโt do the same
The only person you should be comparing yourself to is the person you were last month
Not guys online sharing fake results
If you can see this, pay close attention
Almost 99% of crypto participants are gone right now
Find the accounts that are still active in these market conditions
This reset was needed
The noise is gone, quality rises, and itโs finally easier to navigate the space
This is where the winners are still standing
Whatever you do, donโt give up on this space
Almost 99% of crypto participants are gone right now
Find the accounts that are still active in these market conditions
This reset was needed
The noise is gone, quality rises, and itโs finally easier to navigate the space
This is where the winners are still standing
Whatever you do, donโt give up on this space
๐จBREAKING:
U.S. MARGIN DEBT SURGED BY OVER $30B IN NOVEMBER
TOTAL LEVERAGE JUST HIT A RECORD $1.21 TRILLION
VOLATILITY COMING SOON
U.S. MARGIN DEBT SURGED BY OVER $30B IN NOVEMBER
TOTAL LEVERAGE JUST HIT A RECORD $1.21 TRILLION
VOLATILITY COMING SOON
Altcoin dominance back to pre-bull cycle 2021 levels (also covid crash).
In terms of charts this one gives a far more accurate representation of alts vs the likes of bitcoin dominance.
Bitcoin dominance dropping doesn't always mean alts will run (stablecoin supply rising will give a fake signal. Btc price dropping as well).
Here you can clearly see the movement in Q1 2024 that produced a "mini altseason" as well as Q4 2024 (shorter).
It also currently represents how low the interest in alts in general is. Currently it's just us. New retail has no interest for now.
There will be times we'll see some sparks again. But right now it's to early to tell it'll happen now or even in Q1 2026 (liquidity still flows where it wants to flow).
I'll be here to take action on the first signs of it. But won't be going all-in because I'm betting it'll start tomorrow.
In terms of charts this one gives a far more accurate representation of alts vs the likes of bitcoin dominance.
Bitcoin dominance dropping doesn't always mean alts will run (stablecoin supply rising will give a fake signal. Btc price dropping as well).
Here you can clearly see the movement in Q1 2024 that produced a "mini altseason" as well as Q4 2024 (shorter).
It also currently represents how low the interest in alts in general is. Currently it's just us. New retail has no interest for now.
There will be times we'll see some sparks again. But right now it's to early to tell it'll happen now or even in Q1 2026 (liquidity still flows where it wants to flow).
I'll be here to take action on the first signs of it. But won't be going all-in because I'm betting it'll start tomorrow.
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