平常心roe

Today's market analysis. The negative news from yesterday had a significant impact, causing the US stock market to crash completely. It did not test the 102000 level, but directly dropped to the lower 98500 level for testing. The influence of news is quite substantial, but overall, Powell has never had much of a favorable view towards BTC. This is generally within expectations, mainly driven by risk-averse sentiment. Personally, I don't have much thought about shorting.
If by the end of this Friday, the overall market cannot continue to return to the Fibonacci 0.618 level near 104300 and stabilize above 102200, the overall market will mainly be in a bearish state. The next target will be 95000. If the above expectations can be met, we can continue to look bullish.

Many people attribute the political chaos in South Korea last night to the opposition party's relentless pursuit of the first lady's corruption scandal. Personally, I feel this is merely a trigger or something to write about. The larger issue is that the international political landscape has changed after the U.S. elections, and the direction of events is determined by the impending arrival of Trump or his inclinations.
1. The first lady's corruption issue has been battled for a year; why has it escalated to a state of martial law? It’s not only the opposition party that is challenging, even the ruling party in South Korea, including its leader, opposes Yoon Suk-yeol, and the ruling party is already divided internally.

2. Yoon Suk-yeol won the election with considerable effort from the Democratic Party; we can revisit the 2021 South Korean election scene, where the Democratic Party was staunchly loyal. With Trump in power, Yoon Suk-yeol naturally needed to establish a relationship with him, and Yoon's aides had repeatedly stated they would meet before Trump's inauguration. However, Trump still did not meet him, consistent with his reasons for refusing an early meeting with Shii Nobuo. Think about it: when Trump was first elected in 2016, Abe Shinzo visited New York the following week to present Trump with a golden golf club.
It is estimated that the internal opposition to Yoon Suk-yeol within the ruling party understood the deeper meaning of Trump's refusal to meet, and thus they jumped out to stab him in the back. Yoon Suk-yeol is caught in a pincer attack.

3. This morning I saw reports that the head of the South Korean presidential office and the chief secretary collectively resigned, which means that the core aide team has already fled. The armed forces couldn't stop the members of parliament from rushing into the National Assembly building, showing that the South Korean military's implementation of martial law last night was quite perfunctory. Yoon Suk-yeol is basically finished; this matter of martial law is likely unavoidable as impeachment and resignation loom ahead.

4. The deeper meaning of Trump's refusal to meet Yoon Suk-yeol is likely related to his foreign policy priorities, which should focus on the Middle East and support Netanyahu. This is also why Netanyahu dared to dismiss the sitting Israeli defense minister (who had a close relationship with the Democratic Party) before the election results. In July, Netanyahu and his wife went to Mar-a-Lago to meet Trump, indicating their relationship. If geopolitical maneuvering prioritizes the Middle East, then issues concerning Russia-Ukraine and the Asia-Pacific must be eased; this may be Trump's deeper intention. By not pushing hard on geopolitical maneuvering, efforts can be made in trade, finance, and technological restrictions.

Spot Contract CVD
$BTC The current market is primarily spot, with futures as a supplement

It seems that the price movements in the past couple of days are somewhat similar to the strong positive impacts brought about by various listed companies increasing their holdings, which has driven the price up. However, looking solely at the price trend, it is evident that the overall price movement has shown signs of weakness.

Although the contract CVD continues to decrease, I still believe that many people have chosen to open short positions at this level as a hedging behavior.

If this year is to replicate the bullish market of 2021, the first condition is that this year does not possess the important factor of the loose policies from 2021. Also, during the last time Powell cut interest rates, he did not mention any expectations related to QE. I am more inclined towards a slow growth as liquidity increases.

In the long run, I really hope that $btc can reach 200,000 or even 1 million dollars each, but at least this year there are no related policies that can support this conclusion. If it can rise to 100,000 each this year, that would undoubtedly highlight the craziness of the crypto space compared to other asset classes.

Futures positions across the network
On the 14th, the futures positions across the network fell slightly one day after the $BTC price broke through the new high of 93,200, and continued to rise in the following days

It is worth noting that the weakening of the upward momentum is the absorption of the entire market by the supply, or the weakening of the overall market sentiment. At least for now, the overall market is still at a high tide, and the sentiment is more FOMO. I personally prefer the latter

11.19 Market Analysis
$BTC tested the trend support line below several times yesterday, and the supply is still there. But it seems to be absorbed all the time. The highs in the past three days are still rising, and the lows are also getting higher

Looking up:
In terms of a larger cycle, taking the low point of around 15,000 and the Fibonacci model of the last bull market of 69,000, the upper pressure position is around 102,000
At such a high point, there is no extreme door-drawing market, but it is in a range of shocks, which is very likely to be the first supply in Wyckoff theory
Looking down
Before the overall trend changes, the support effect of the three positions of 85,700, 82,000, and 76,200 is particularly obvious

Personal opinion:
Looking up
This trend line is bound to fall, but before that, it seems that the absorption of the supply at the current position seems to be more like a preparation for the storm before the 100,000 mark comes.

When BTC reaches the 100,000 mark, the media traffic will be exposed, and it seems that It seems that BTC can come out of a more terrifying climax, which will be a milestone for the entire web3 industry.

Whether the main force will do so at that time is still unknown, but I think if there is not even a decent callback, just such a small fluctuation, it is a very scary thing to rush directly to 100,000.

Looking down
If this is broken with the gentle trend line, as long as it does not fall below the strong bottom support of 76,200, the current position will oscillate back and forth to absorb the energy of the short order, as if it is going to the top, but it will torture the patience of the air force back and forth.

Once it falls below, it may be a matter of several big negative lines. After all, the air force has accumulated an emotional release for so long, and it is still going to the three key positions of 85,700, 82,000, and 76,200, of which 82,000 is only a very small soft support.

Be careful of risks! Be careful of risks! Be careful of risks!
#BTC

Fear & Greed Index
At 8.20 this morning, the index still maintained the 90 of the previous day, and the upward trend has not changed! The upward trend has not changed!

Yesterday, the good news was that four US stocks, mainly $MSTR and $SMLR, publicly announced the purchase of nearly $500 million in BTC. The price of BTC rose by $3,000 in a short period of time. It is very likely that the FOMO sentiment of Americans for $BTC has been ignited again. Yesterday, I also lamented that in the face of the news, any technical indicators were weak.

However, such FOMO sentiment ignited the market, but this morning's Fear & Greed Index also recovered the high of 90 the day before, but the futures market did not show a particularly obvious performance. It can be said that yesterday's rise was largely driven by spot prices, but the futures contract buying did not seem to keep up. It is more likely that arbitrage funds entered the market. While the Fear & Greed Index kept up, the price did not have an obvious rise at the close. Is this an important signal of emotional top divergence? ! $BTC

11.18 Market Analysis
Since a small-scale gate-drawing wave at 93,000, the spot buying momentum has weakened, and the coinbase premium has also fluctuated less, making it easier to enter a futures-led market and conduct a liquidity-grabbing market trend
Since the strongest momentum market on 11.12 did not continue to rise, it is likely to enter a larger floating range of shocks. In the short term, there will be no other good news or emotional fomo caused by market activities. The potential energy that can push the rise again cannot be used. There is no reason to break through the new high in the short term, but the current market bull trend has not dissipated yet. There is still a huge short liquidation strength near 92,300, and the liquidation strength continues to increase over time. As shown in the figure below, the trend line has been broken and has been changing. There is an old saying that the trend line is used to break through. The trend line is becoming flat. Before there is any major negative news, I don’t think there will be a market that will pull back to 10,000 points on March 6 this year. Often, the CME gap is likely to be filled in the two weeks after it appears. This week, it feels like there is a high probability to fill this gap. The current market is more like a futures-dominated market. In the short term, liquidity is grabbed up and down to make up for the floating supply in the current market, and then the more mentioned shift to range fluctuations. In the short term, if the market does not break below 85,000 and does not break through 93,000, it can be sold high and bought low in the short term. The range still has a 6% fluctuation range, which is also a relatively rich bargaining chip. In the long term The current bottom hard support is 76200. Basically, if the support level at this position can be broken, it basically means that the bull market in a short period of time is over. It needs to consolidate as a whole before the next wave of rise will come. The bull market is far from over. I believe that at least a large number of people are not satisfied with the current status of the bull market. This is just halfway up the mountain!
$BTC

The copycat season has begun, and web3 seems to be embracing memes, which are still in their infancy.
Can pnut become a memecoin with a market value of tens of billions to lead this round of meme cycle?

The fomo sentiment on the meme chain has been very strong recently. Under this, more VC coins that claim to build web3 have not performed well. From the previous FUD on the entire application of VC coins, the market trend seems to be slowly changing. Everything can be meme.

Two days ago, litcoin officials also announced that LTC is also a memecoin. The entry of more and more VC and large capital users also represents their recognition of this market. In my concept, it seems that web3 really promotes the powerful concept of decentralization, isn’t it? It seems that the concept of VC coins is completely opposite to the ideal of decentralization. On the contrary, the emergence of memecoin, various community autonomy, consensus, and unmanned concepts are all in line with the essence of memecoin.

What I want to say about the secondary is that it seems that market share does not seem to be that important. After all, many high-quality meme projects are still on the chain, not on the exchange. So I think one day in the future, whether it is possible to simply rely on the prosperity of the chain to cover up the current various centralized concepts, such as the exchange from then on, its function slowly evolved to just help users to complete asset exchange more conveniently. After all, the concept of the exchange is still in a very important position in the current market. Therefore, the current BTC market share of 60% pressure line is not standard. I have not made statistics, but I think its current market share is only 50% of the market? Or even lower? So if the previously mentioned cottage season is replaced by the meme concept, the current round of cottage season has begun, and it is not inferior to the previous cottage season.

Also, the leader of meme seems to have not appeared yet. I think the current market value of pnut is far from enough to become the leader. If the concept of copycat season is to change, I think at least a brand new memecoin with a market value of more than 10 billion should appear. Who is he? Among the meme concepts I am currently paying attention to, it seems that only pnut, a product of Trump's election, meets this condition. The current market is full of gold, so hurry up and pick it up, but also pay attention to risks. #meme $BTC $PNUT

Bitcoin Liquidation Heat Map & Liquidation Map

The key position above the Binance Liquidation Heat Map is 92340. It is worth noting that the short position at 92340 was increased again yesterday, and there is still a lot of liquidity near the new high

The key position below is 85776, which is still an important position for trend change in this short period of time

After a day of market reaction, the short forces in the market were stronger than the long forces yesterday. Today's liquidation data has changed the positions of both long and short parties
If Bitcoin breaks through 93800, the liquidation strength of the air force is 1.36 billion
If it falls below 87500, the liquidation strength of the long army is 2.5 billion
If it falls below 85000, the liquidation strength of the long army is 3.6 billion

The liquidation positions of both long and short parties have changed today, and the order strategy should be adjusted in time#BTC$BTC

Fear & Greed Index
Yesterday, the index was at 88, only 2 points away from its historical high. It has now fallen back to 80. If extreme greed breaks through to a high of 90, the theory of BTC price top divergence may fail with a high probability. This is an important signal for whether Bitcoin can break through the 100,000 mark.

#btc #恐惧贪婪指数

Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index
On November 14, Coinbase's premium index showed a clear weakening state. American buying sentiment began to decline and did not continue to rise. This is also an important signal that the price of Bitcoin did not continue to rise.#BTC#Coinbase

11.15 Market Analysis
Yesterday, it also touched a liquidity area of ​​91,800. In the early morning of yesterday, Powell mentioned in an important meeting that if inflation continues, he would consider stopping the interest rate cut, and then the 4h level ushered in a 2.38% draw gate market. The previous upward trend was confirmed to be broken. I personally think that it is more likely to go in a volatile downward market trend. For the time being, the American fomo sentiment has also declined. The premium index of Coinbase has also begun to weaken. If it does not break through 85,000, you can consider a short-term strategy of selling high and buying low.

It is worth noting that from the high point of 93,525 to the lower 75,000 is positive Fortunately, it is a drop of about 20%, which can just clear the long positions with five times leverage. Whether the previous bull market will continue around 75,000, we can wait and see

Summary:
After breaking through and standing firm at the high of the range of 92,000, continuing the previous upward trend, the probability of achieving this goal within three days is small

It did not break through 92,000 and did not fall below 85,000. The strong bull trend is likely to turn into a range shock

If it falls below 85,000, it will most likely turn into a bearish trend, which will be mentioned as a risk warning, because the long liquidity below is large, and the long liquidity below will continue to be cleared

#BTC

I sorted out the recent airdrop tasks

1️⃣Bungee @BungeeExchange You can claim the rewards, and airdrop rewards may be issued later
balls.bungee.exchange
2️⃣GPU mining on sui chain
suimine.xyz/#/tokens/fomo
3️⃣Chakra deposit activity withdrawal activities have been stopped, and those who have not claimed can continue to pay attention to subsequent activities
app.chakrachain.io/depositHistory…
4️⃣Airdrop $DIAM claim, airdrops are distributed according to TX history or balance @diamante_io
claim.diamante.io
5️⃣vana's Tg mini-game, but the sector is not so hot at the moment, just spend some time
t.me/VanaDataHeroBot
6️⃣Free "Fermah Day 1" NFT, don’t miss it
fermah.xyz/day-1-nft-reg…

The current popularity is mainly in the meme sector, so the airdrop sector may be relatively cool

The recent sui chain outbreak is expected to cause a wave of wealth effect in the airdrop sector
#airdrop #Btc #Eth #sui #meme