玖九酒

#PCE数据来袭
Then at 8:30 tonight there will be a PCE inflation data release
No more nonsense
Above expectations is bearish
Below expectations is bullish (according to expectations, it might be a slight positive, take profit at highs or short)
We must recognize the reality that it will continue to drop, the main players in the crypto circle have already fled
The two supports given the day before yesterday at 106500 and 104500, how many understood, back and forth eating?

#美国加征关税
Yesterday's 108200 short position also had 1500 points, 106500 did not break and has bounced back up.
Recently, the strategy is still to look bearish on Bitcoin's high points.
Initial jobless claims will be announced tonight at 8:30. No nonsense.
Higher than expected is bullish, lower than expected is bearish (news importance is moderate).
There is significant resistance at 110000, it may not reach that level; around 109500, there might be an attempt to test the upper position.

The empty space given yesterday is still there
If 106500 breaks again, we will continue to look down at 1045000.

Bitcoin has risen for two consecutive months with an increase of over 50%, but it has not had a significant correction yet. You must pay close attention to this trend line; once it breaks, Bitcoin could correct a lot!

It's been a long time since I posted: I incurred a loss of 12,800 last time and then opened a short position at 98, continuously averaging down, reducing positions, and finally breaking even. In the past few days, I made a few small short trades, and fortunately, they all worked out.
To be direct: I personally feel this wave has peaked. Bitcoin might push up to the 112-116 range tonight for a short position.
The annual Bitcoin conference will be held in Las Vegas tonight.
It might very well be the endpoint of this BTC trend.
Slowly, the positive news might be exhausted, and there could be a significant pullback in June and July.
Perhaps it will reach new highs again, and I have a stop-loss set at 112,500. This point needs to be tested.
This is my personal opinion and not investment advice.

The pancake continues to decline, breaking 104500, and looking further down to 103000, with a breakeven loss set at 104900.
Currently, the cost-effectiveness of being short is higher than being long, and institutional investors are gradually reducing their positions. The market is still extremely greedy; doesn't it feel similar to the high points around the New Year?
I hope for a volatile downward trend, looking for high points to short.

The pancake continues to look bearish, and the short position remains.
Be careful when escaping the peak above 75, which is an extremely greedy place. Especially if it lasts for about a week, you can start unloading. Pay attention to a few large institutional addresses that have slowly started to exit.
Around the 105000 point, only look for shorts and not longs. It may go to 110000, just control your position and set a stop loss. There are no eternal winners in contracts; the mindset and position size are the most important.
If it breaks 104500, continue to add to the short position, set a breakeven stop loss at 105397 to take a 500-point high and continue shorting.

#BTC挑战11万大关
Bitcoin's current price has retraced to around 102000, and further down there is support at 100500. Currently, BLD has a complete possibility of reaching the support levels of 100500-100800. If it breaks the next point, it will be 95.
In the morning, it was intentionally pushed up to 107100 to clear out the bears, which has left those chasing the rise and fall caught in both directions!
I personally closed my short position at 103333 and am currently considering entering a small short position after the US market's high point.

#加密市场反弹
Tonight's information is very important, very important, very important
1. Unemployment rate
2. Major Non-Farm Payroll data
Currently, the market expects the unemployment rate to remain unchanged
While the expected increase in employment numbers is slightly higher
No more nonsense
Unemployment rate: below expectations is bullish, above expectations is bearish
Non-Farm: below expectations is bullish, above expectations is bearish
On August 30th, the big index may spike, expected to rise by 1500 points, you can try placing orders based on the data. Last time's false non-farm data is not ruled out.
The above is my personal opinion and not investment advice.

#Trump's First Hundred Days
Today two data points are released to see if the big pie at 960 can hold steady
1. Weekly unemployment claims 2. Manufacturing PMI
No nonsense
1. Unemployment claims number Higher than expected is bullish Lower than expected is bearish
2. PMI data Higher than expected is bearish Lower than expected is bullish (50 is the watershed)

#特朗普税改 The strategy remains unchanged, the big pie at a high position, taking profits at 1600 points for safety, back to the starting point and sleeping again.

#加密市场反弹
8:30 Unemployment Claims Data Release
No Nonsense High Expectations Bullish
Low Expectations Bearish
The day before yesterday, I went short at 927 and added at 935, ended up stuck for a day, finally took a small bite to break even, currently out of the market (there's unemployment claims data release tonight, don’t want to gamble). Recently, the Bitcoin price movement has been relatively strong, in my personal opinion, still not chasing high points and looking bearish.
950 is a strong resistance level that hasn't been broken twice recently, hoping for a spike around 8:30 tonight, looking bearish with sell orders at 940-945 above. (Yesterday, US stocks closed with a small tail up.)

#加密市场反弹
BTC
Brothers, the sky has collapsed, and Bitcoin is soaring to the heavens, directly pushing above 940 in one breath, once again challenging the resistance at 95000. Still expecting a short-term pullback. If it can push up again near 950 without breaking, consider trying a light short position with a stop loss at 958.
Tonight at 10:00, I will decide whether to add to my position.
Currently holding a short position at 929, in a drawdown.

#特朗普施压鲍威尔 The last post 875 mentioned the trial and error point, and finally 866 cleared the snacks with one bite.
Today the US market is strong, and Bitcoin has broken 90,000. The momentum still looks strong, but chasing high to go long is not cost-effective. In my personal view, there will still be a wave of correction, and I would go short at the high points, with attention on the three points 907, 918, and 927 to go short.

#加密市场反弹
The market has been sideways for a week, and the direction has now emerged. Should the bears be worried?
If it strongly stabilizes above 880, being short will become dangerous; conversely, if it retraces to 860, there is still a significant opportunity.
Currently, Bitcoin needs to pay attention to the level of 86000 below. If it retraces and stabilizes here, the probability of testing resistance at 88500 and 89600 will be high.
If it cannot stabilize at 86000, then it's just a false alarm, and the probability of testing downwards at 84000 and 83000 will be high.
This point is a trial and error point; a short position was entered at 875, without chasing higher. This market may trap positions.

#鲍威尔发言
Powell's speech points:
1. Interest rates are in a good position, waiting for clearer signals before considering adjustments to policy stance. (Bearish)
2. Economic outlook: The U.S. economy remains robust. (Bearish)
3. Inflation outlook: The impact of tariffs may be more persistent, expected to push up inflation; March PCE annual rate is expected to be 2.3%, core PCE at 2.6%. (Bearish)
4. Labor market: Overall remains balanced; unemployment rate is expected to rise. (Minimal impact)
5. Tariff impact: The extent of tariff increases so far has far exceeded expectations; policies are still being adjusted, and the impact remains highly uncertain. (Nonsense)
6. Cryptocurrency: Gradually becoming mainstream, a legal framework for stablecoins needs to be established; bank regulation is expected to see "some easing." (Continued bullish)
7. The independence of the Federal Reserve is granted by law; the Fed will not be influenced by political pressure. (Bearish)
8. Don’t expect the Fed to step in to save the market; if there is a dollar shortage, the Fed is prepared to provide liquidity to global central banks. (Bearish)
Summary: If Powell hadn't mentioned that cryptocurrency could break 8 last night, U.S. stocks would likely be in the 840-850 range today with no strong news, at most up or down another 500 points.

#比特币与美国关税政策
Tonight at 1:30 AM, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will attend an event at the Chicago Economic Club and deliver a speech.
The market is focused on how Powell will respond to tariff issues and interest rate cut expectations, and there may be significant volatility in Bitcoin at that time.
The small position of 851 short contracts hasn't made much profit, and I'm currently waiting for Powell to finish speaking before opening a position in the clear direction.
BTC contracts have been fluctuating sideways between 83-86 for almost a week now, and perhaps a direction will emerge tonight.

#加密市场反弹
BTC is expected to first break through 830 and 840 on Saturday and Sunday, then aim for 86000. If it comes down, we will look at whether it can reach the 878 position. If it reaches this position but cannot hold, there will likely be a wave of decline. Conversely, if it holds steady, there is a high probability it will break 9.
Operational thought: Currently, I will not chase the highs. I will place a small short position at 85850, and if I get stuck in a position, I will focus on the 878 level.

#CPI数据来袭
The pancake is really awesome, the CPI is good but the market falls, the US market falls but rises, the naked K chart clearly shows a downtrend but it rises in the morning, everyone who shorted it has been liquidated, the scythe and Mars have all been taken out, really amazing.
Trump manipulates tariffs, manipulates the US stock market, manipulates the world, the big disease fluctuates, really stimulating, reverse thinking can still get a taste.
Since posting in the morning, I've run 1500 points.

#CPI数据来袭
CPI is favorable, but Bitcoin is still falling. It seems that in front of Trump, both good and bad news are just illusions. Is this meant to kill Bitcoin?

#特朗普暂停新关税
Everything is a matter of a word from Trump. Today's CPI and unemployment claims, no matter how you analyze the news, it doesn't help much…
Tariffs added and stopped, the dramatic rise and fall really plays with global finance.
Patiently waiting to find a point to enter again.