Will Bitcoin Crash to $70K? What the Iran-Israel Conflict Could Mean for the Market
This article isn't meant to create fear—just to present facts and share my take. First, we'll explore the outlook for the next 1–2 months, followed by a short-term analysis. Key points covered:
Iran-Israel Tensions & Market Impact
Potential Fed Rate Cuts
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
BTC & USDT Dominance
My Personal Strategy
1. Iran-Israel Conflict: A Bearish Signal? Historically, major conflicts like this have triggered market sell-offs—April 2024 is a recent example. A U.S.-backed Israeli strike on Iran could spark panic selling, especially since BTC has surged from $74K to $112K without a healthy correction. A drop to the $65K–$70K range is possible, potentially larger than the last 35–40% dip due to deeper global involvement. In short, the geopolitical outlook looks bearish for the next month or two.
2. Fed Rate Cuts: Bullish News, Bearish Setup There’s speculation the Fed may cut rates by 100 bps, possibly under political pressure. Initially, that could cause a short-lived spike. But since markets are already at all-time highs, smart money may use it
🚨 Major Players Exit — 2740 Becomes ETH's Final Lifeline 🚨
Last night, ETH pumped to 2880 — $120M shorts wrecked. But 3 failed breakouts at 2870 + massive sell walls = clear rejection. Bulls collapsed. 2800 snapped. ETH hit 2740. 👉 $380M liquidated in 24 hrs.
What Really Happened:
• Whales dumped 50K ETH near 2878 • ETF hopes crashed — BlackRock delay, institutions paused buys • Exchanges squeezed the market — funding rate hit 0.15% at the top
Technical Breakdown:
• Triple top at 2870 + MACD death cross • 2766 break triggered panic • RSI deep in oversold = momentum accelerating down
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🔍 What’s Next:
Short-Term: • If 2740 breaks → freefall to 2680 • Rebound fails below 2766? That’s your exit/short signal
Mid-Term: • Weekly close < 2700 = bearish “Evening Star” • Only bullish reversal: Strong break above 2880 + hold over 2850
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⚠️ Retail Traders Must Act Smart: ❌ No bottom fishing below 2740 ✅ Weak rebound? Short it — target: 2680 📉 Heavy bags? Use bounce to reduce 🧨 CPI coming Thursday — cut leverage before it’s too late
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Core View: Big players have already exited above 2870 Bearish momentum is confirmed 📌 Do only 2 things: • Cut losses on breakdowns • Short weakness on failed rebounds