启示录

$SUI 3.5 and 3.8 can respectively build positions and then short again

The price of Bitcoin has accumulated an increase of nearly 25%, with the size of open contracts rising from 22 billion dollars to 29 billion dollars, but the funding rate remains close to zero. This reflects that, despite the price increase, some futures traders still choose to establish short positions rather than chase the rise.

This rare market structure may indicate that the market is about to experience greater volatility: if the price continues to rise, shorts may be forced to close their positions, accelerating the upward trend; if the price corrects, it may reinforce the current short position layout. Regardless of how the trend evolves, the current market structure points to an intensification of future volatility.

Attention everyone, the second winning point has been reached, please get off the vehicle.

第一止赢点到了大家可以平仓50%或者保本平仓留着盈利继续再跑一会！

Brothers who have already boarded can continue to hold their positions!

I don't expect a third term, but if you insist on me being crowned, there's nothing I can do. You have really put me in a tough spot 😂

Sun Ge is running, everyone be careful

My face hurts so much 😂

If Bitcoin ( $BTC ) is to break through $100,000 again, it still needs to clear a considerable amount of supply pressure. Cost basis distribution data shows a particularly dense cluster at around $97,000, where investors hold about 392,000 bitcoins. Some investors may sell at breakeven, making this area a key resistance level.

After all, I haven't played Chuanzi before 😂

Last night's wave of good news. Chuanzi can't hold on anymore!

Dong Ge is going to start trading cryptocurrencies in addition to delivering food 😂

Bitcoin's recent range oscillation turned bullish on Monday morning, with the focus shifting to the $90,000-$92,000 range, which was previously a strong support area.

Bitcoin broke through $87,000 today, decisively escaping the consolidation between $83,000-$86,000 over the past week. Bulls have shown renewed willingness to lead price movements, indicating that the recovery from the April 7 low of below $75,000 has restarted. This also means that prices may continue to rise to the $90,000-$92,000 range, which served as bottom support from last December to early February, preventing prices from falling. This support area was ultimately broken at the end of February, triggering a rapid decline below $75,000.

Previously, the bearish trend line from the historical high on the daily chart has been broken and rendered ineffective. BTC also broke above the price high of the 30-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating a shift in momentum to bullish. Therefore, the focus is on the $90,000-$92,000 range, which was the support area earlier this year.

Investors watching moving averages should note that the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is currently at $88,245. If the price falls back to $85,000 before the end of the day (UTC time), the bullish outlook will face a risk of failure.

According to Coinglass data, Bitcoin volatility has dropped to 2.66%, after declining for eight consecutive days.

High Bitcoin volatility is usually associated with speculative trading and retail FOMO sentiment. When volatility decreases, it may indicate a reduction in short-term speculators, leading the market into a consolidation phase or a 'cooling period'. Additionally, Bitcoin price fluctuations are often linked to macroeconomic events, such as inflation expectations, interest rate changes, or geopolitical risks. When these external factors stabilize, Bitcoin's volatility may also decrease.

Current mainstream CEX and DEX funding rates are warming up, and the market is returning to rationality. The specific funding rates for mainstream cryptocurrencies are shown in the attached image.

Funding rates are the rates set by cryptocurrency trading platforms to maintain the balance between contract prices and the prices of underlying assets, usually applicable to perpetual contracts. It is a mechanism for capital exchange between long and short traders, and trading platforms do not charge this fee; instead, it is used to adjust the cost or return of the contracts held by traders to keep the contract prices close to the prices of the underlying assets.

When the funding rate is 0.01%, it represents the benchmark rate. When the funding rate is greater than 0.01%, it indicates a generally bullish market. When the funding rate is less than 0.005%, it indicates a generally bearish market.

Trump plots to remove Old Bao, if successful, it will be a financial earthquake.

On April 18, there will be 23,000 BTC options expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.96, a maximum pain point of $82,000, and a notional value of $1.97 billion. 177,000 ETH options will expire, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.84, a maximum pain point of $1,600, and a notional value of $280 million. In addition, the market has calmed down significantly this week, and the news released by Trump has been less frequent, causing the market to cool off quickly. Currently, the short-term RV is only 30%, and IV has also dropped significantly this week, falling below 40%. The medium to long-term RV is between 50% and 60%, with IV concentrated around 50%. The expectation of a trade war and tariff war is far from over, and the uncertainty in the market will continue for a long time, as will the market volatility. The delivery volume accounts for less than 10% of the total open interest, and the PCR has remained at a relatively high level recently, reflecting that the market's concern about a downturn clearly outweighs expectations for an upturn. The open interest of April and June options has remained around 25%, indicating a relatively stable market structure, with a high probability of consolidation. However, we are currently in the painful transition period from bull to bear, and investor sentiment is relatively low. In this poor market condition of transitioning from bull to bear, the probability of a black swan event is significantly increased, and buying some deep out-of-the-money puts would be a good choice.

The number of first-time Bitcoin buyers is soaring, while long-term holders have stopped accumulating. Different investor groups are showing divergent behaviors towards Bitcoin: the 30-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) for first-time buyers has risen to 97.9, indicating a significant influx of new demand; the RSI for steadfast buyers has dropped to 3.2, meaning they have nearly completely ceased accumulating. Such behavioral divergence often signals an impending local top.

You're not playing by the rules 😂