张仪金融交易分析

It's been a long time since I've posted a short message in Binance Square, posting one now.

Every day in trading, many people face liquidation. Today, I would like to share a couplet related to trading, hoping it will be useful for everyone. Upper line: Stop-loss is always right, even when it is wrong. Lower line: Holding on stubbornly is always wrong, even when it seems right. Horizontal inscription: Stop-loss unconditionally. #btc

Extremes meet. What is the darkness before dawn? Price of 6000 dollars for 2 hours. #btc

Oh no, the pancake has returned to starting with 7. Look at the square, it's full of wailing. When trading, don't think about whether it will rise or fall. Analyze and focus on the price range you are familiar with, make decisions based on your own signals, and set take profit and stop loss. Just do it. Don't think about always wanting to place orders; that mindset will lead to losses regardless of how much capital you have. Don't focus on whether it's a bull or bear market. In both cases, there are plenty of people making money and plenty of people losing money.

Solana at 136 has fallen to the support line. There is no trading advice. You can enter more. Bring a stop loss. Stop profit and stop loss are up to you. #Solana⁩ $SOL It is none of my business to lose money, and I have no share in making money. I am just talking nonsense. Look at it rationally. If you don’t like it, don’t read it and go away. This post is just for the sake of existence. I hope Solana will fall to 0. Start with

No after-the-fact commentary. When it was at 2, the big pancake dropped from 106000 to 101600. I already told everyone that the decline was not over. It has now reached 96000.

The big cake drops, other altcoins directly halve in a snowball effect. The drop of the big cake has not yet ended. From a daily perspective, many altcoins have plummeted, claiming to be affected by deepseek's computing power. Currently, in the market, very few altcoins are worth investing in; most are speculative trading, focusing on new trends and popularity. Therefore, anyone wanting to make money in this market either needs to engage in swing trading or find it very difficult to invest in hundredfold or thousandfold coins in the secondary market. The primary market has only a few rare opportunities.

Big A Full of Spirit 4700 Diving What is Legal Fraud #币安全球用户突破2.5亿

Haven't been watching the market lately, nor analyzing it. Just posting something to find some presence.

Perfect presentation at 3380

When Bitcoin was at 98,000, I analyzed it to 92. Now it has reached the beginning of 92 in half a day. #Powell

Ethereum 3150 I told everyone when it was still at 3600. Is anyone following along?

FOMC Statement:
1. Statement Overview: The wording remains largely unchanged, with a decision to cut rates by 25 basis points passed by a vote of 11-1, with Harker supporting a pause in rate cuts. ON-RRP lowered by 30 basis points.
2. Interest Rate Outlook: Will consider the "magnitude and timing" of further rate cuts. The median in the dot plot is raised, indicating two cuts each in the next two years, although there is significant disagreement among some officials.
3. Inflation Outlook: The timeline for achieving the 2% inflation target has been pushed back to 2027, with upward revisions for 2024-2026 expectations, and most officials foresee risks tilted to the upside.
4. Economic Outlook: Slight downward revision in unemployment rate expectations. The wording regarding steady economic growth remains unchanged, with upward revisions for real GDP growth expectations for this year and next year, from 2% significantly raised to 2.5%.
Powell's Press Conference:
1. Interest Rate Outlook: Considering rate adjustments can be more cautious, changes in the statement wording indicate that we are in or nearing a phase of slowing rate cuts, and rate hikes next year seem unlikely. If inflation cannot consistently move toward 2%, rate cuts could be slower. Slow rate cuts could hurt the economy and employment.
2. Inflation Outlook: It may take another year or two to reach the target; risks and uncertainties are high; discussing how tariffs may drive inflation.
3. Economic Outlook: Overall economic performance is strong, with economic growth in the second half expected to be faster than anticipated, and no reason to believe that the likelihood of an economic downturn is higher than usual.
4. Employment Outlook: The labor market remains robust and is not a significant source of inflationary pressure; it has not cooled to concerning levels, and will continue to be monitored.
5. Other Statements: (Regarding Bitcoin reserve policy) The Federal Reserve does not allow nor intends to hold Bitcoin. Today's interest rate decision was a relatively difficult choice.
6. Market Reaction: From the release of the statement to Powell's speech, spot gold fell sharply by $56; the dollar index has risen by 110 points since the announcement, reaching a two-year high; 2Y U.S. Treasuries rose by 15 basis points; the Nasdaq's decline expanded to 3%; Bitcoin fell by over $5000.
7. Latest Expectations: Traders' pricing for Federal Reserve rate cuts continues to decrease, with expectations of only a 37 basis point cut in 2025, far below the 75 basis points anticipated before the meeting.

Planning to hold on a bit to see if Ethereum will give a chance to hold onto the 2s.

The big coin just tested 107770, falling 7 dollars short of breaking the record. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is almost impossible this time. The price of the big coin's musical chairs is also constantly hitting new highs, far exceeding its actual value. For us traders, its actual value is almost useless. The only thing is to trade according to signals and earn the money others lose in the pool.

When Bitcoin was at 105400, I analyzed and told everyone about the market. Those who entered at that time had already made money.

Goldman Sachs economists believe that the Federal Reserve may indicate a slowing of future rate cuts at its meeting later this week, and may skip a rate cut in January next year.

Although this American bank expects the Federal Reserve to still cut rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, recent comments suggest that there is a 'clear' desire from the Fed to temper the pace of rate cuts, and the terminal rate may also be higher than initially expected. Economists at Goldman Sachs, including Jan Hatzius, wrote in a report released last Sunday. This is due to the unemployment rate being lower than the Fed's forecast for 2024, while the inflation rate remains above target.

Goldman Sachs economists also pointed out that Federal Reserve officials have expressed a more open attitude towards the terminal rate and may be cautious about where to stop rate cuts.

They wrote, "The key question for the statement and press conference is whether the Fed emphasizes slowing the pace of rate cuts or continues to rely on meeting-by-meeting data-driven decisions. We expect to hear both messages, including the addition of a statement agreeing to slow the pace of rate cuts."

After sticky inflation data in November, expectations for Federal Reserve rates have changed, and other data also showed resilience in the labor market.

Goldman Sachs' view aligns with market pricing, which sees a 90% chance of a rate cut from the Fed this week but has largely removed the possibility of another rate cut in January next year. Goldman Sachs continues to expect the Fed to cut rates in March, June, and September next year, with terminal rate expectations slightly raised to 3.5%-3.75%.

The economists wrote, "Our baseline and probability-weighted Fed forecasts are more moderate than market pricing, a key reason being that we believe that under potential policy changes in a second Trump administration, the risks to interest rates are more two-sided than usually assumed."

I haven't analyzed for everyone for several days. Today, I will analyze Bitcoin. Since I entered when it was rising in the morning, I looked bearish at 104000, but it rose again to 106666. It has currently come down. A clear bearish signal has appeared at the key resistance level on the four-hour chart. Everyone should set stop losses and boldly take profits.

Many counterfeit products surged sharply a few days ago, but in the past two days, as soon as the market hiccupped, it fell apart and broke new lows after being listed. The more the rise has no ceiling, the more the fall has no bottom. It is advised not to touch it unless you have profitable positions in hand.

Ethereum and Bitcoin dropped by ten percent last night due to a sudden plunge from high positions. Today, Ethereum has returned to about the same price as yesterday, while Bitcoin is still down by around five percent. I won't analyze the good technical points anymore. The market is likely to trend downward for a while. The release of non-farm payroll data tonight may trigger another big earthquake. The recovery during the day is for the large fluctuations at night.

#非农就业数据