Punk not dead

President Donald Trump announced today via Truth Social that the United States and Vietnam have reached a landmark trade agreement.

In the post, Trump shared that there will be a lot of cooperation between the two countries. Afterwards, he revealed the conditions in the agreement set for Vietnam. Following the deal, Vietnam will pay the United States a 20% tariff on all goods sent to their territory and a 40% on any transshipping.

In exchange, Vietnam will do something they have never done before: grant the United States complete access to their markets for trade. This means they will open their Market to the US, allowing them to sell their products in Vietnam with no tariffs. 

Trump mentioned that he made this deal after talking with To Lam, the General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam. The US president anticipated that the SUV, or a Large Engine Vehicle, which is very popular in the United States, would be an excellent addition to the different product lines in Vietnam. According to Trump, working with the General Secretary was truly a pleasure for him.

Vietnam aims to finalize a trade deal with the US before the tariff deadline strikes 

Vietnam had already been subjected to a 46% tariff as part of Trump’s announcements about reciprocal tariffs for “Liberation Day.” Later, that tariff was put on hold for 90 days, and this suspension is set to expire next week.

In late June, following the deadline, Pham Minh Chinh, the Prime Minister of Vietnam, said he anticipated finalizing a trade agreement with the US before the deadline.

Chinh expressed that he believes the outcome will arrive in less than two weeks. The Prime Minister also speculated that good things will come their way.

Meanwhile, Vietnam and the US have a strong understanding of tariffs. The Office of the United States Trade Representative reported that 2024 goods trade between the US and Vietnam reached about $149.6 billion.

They also mentioned that US exports of goods to Vietnam in 2024 were $13.1 billion, a 32.9% increase worth $3.2 billion compared to 2023.

Additionally, they stated that in 2024, US imports of goods from Vietnam amounted to $136.6 billion, rising by 19.3% worth $22.1 billion from 2023. The trade deficit for the US with Vietnam was $123.5 billion in 2024, reflecting an increase of 18.1%  worth $18.9 billion over the previous year.

Vietnam faces pressure to balance the US and China in its trade activities

The Southeast Asian nation, China’s neighbour and huge recipient of Chinese investment, has found itself in a tight spot as it tries to keep trading with the US without conflicting with China. The United States happens to be its largest export market and a security ally, after all.

Vietnam’s Government Office, which oversees the country’s ministries, conducted an emergency talk with the government’s trade gurus on April 3 – the day President Trump had unveiled the tariffs.

Officials in the trade and customs ministries were given instructions to intensify their checks during the meeting and two weeks to come up with an effective strategy to tackle Illegal transshipment.

This was after it was revealed that some goods that Vietnam sent to the West have Chinese-made inputs, while Chinese companies have also set up factories to cater to US customers. In many cases, Vietnamese workers process the products, which are then legally sent to the US with a “Made in Vietnam” label.

American officials have accused China of running goods through Vietnam to gain lower tariffs for products that do not have much Vietnamese involvement.

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Bitcoin long-term holders just locked in the biggest single-month accumulation ever recorded, grabbing 800,000 BTC in the span of 30 days, according to CryptoQuant.

That figure is the highest monthly net growth in coins sitting untouched for more than six months, meaning they’ve now officially crossed into Long-Term Holder (LTH) status.

And it’s not some bear-market bargain hunting either. These coins were bought when Bitcoin was trading between $95,000 and $107,000, with spot prices still holding above $100,000 today.

The term “LTH” can get tricky. It’s not about addresses, it’s about the coin age. The moment a coin stays put for over 180 days, it’s categorized as long-term. So this isn’t just whales parking coins. It’s about how long those coins sit there, untouched.

What we’re seeing now is a kind of quiet lock-in, with investors holding harder than they ever have before. This exact kind of accumulation spike has only shown up six times in Bitcoin’s 15-year history.

ETFs and dolphins buy as megawhales back off

Since May 9, Bitcoin has barely moved, sticking to a $10,000 range, even with a brief jump near $112,000, just above its previous high. That rally didn’t last. And it wasn’t for lack of interest. Over the last month, Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $3.5 billion across 12 straight trading sessions, making it their ninth week of inflows out of the last 11. But while the ETFs were stacking, the price barely moved. Why?

Markus Thielen, head of 10x Research, explained it bluntly: “There is this change of ownership happening. We are not seeing a lot of real demand right now because the demand has been almost perfectly offset by the selling from these larger wallets.” In other words, the big early holders — the megawhales — are selling. But they’re doing it slowly, waiting for institutions like ETFs and corporate treasuries to absorb the supply.

Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant’s research chief, said the real power buyers this year are wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC, a group CryptoQuant calls dolphins. ETFs likely fall into that bracket. These aren’t retail investors or megawhales.

They’re institutions spreading coins across many wallets. BlackRock, for example, operates around 550 wallets, averaging 1,290 BTC each. Strategy — the firm formerly known as MicroStrategy — controls 490 wallets, averaging 927 BTC each, based on 10x Research’s breakdown.

Despite looking like mid-sized holders, these companies have stacked thousands of Bitcoin through their network of smaller wallets. Julio said, “In reality, these entities are in fact large holders, having purchased thousands of Bitcoin.”

Chinese miners sit on five million coins as whales manage exit

Meanwhile, the biggest Bitcoin holders ever, the early Chinese mining operations, are still in the picture. Between 2013 and 2021, China controlled up to 75% of the global hashrate, creating as much as 15 million BTC. Today, they still sit on at least five million of those coins. In every previous bull run, those dormant wallets would start dumping onto exchanges. Not this time.

Thielen pointed out that these older wallets are only letting go of what ETFs and companies like Strategy are ready to take. “This time, so far, it seems that these wallets are holding – holding tight and only releasing as many Bitcoins as can be scooped up by ETFs and by Strategy,” he said.

Still, not everyone’s buying like they were in 2024. Strategy has slowed its acquisition pace, thanks to tighter stock premiums and more competition from other companies moving Bitcoin onto their balance sheets. They’re still the biggest public buyer, but they’re not pushing as hard right now.

The whale cohorts — wallets holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC — and the megawhales holding more than that, have been net sellers in 2025. Retail wallets, those with less than 1 BTC, are also offloading. But as long as the dolphins keep buying faster than the whales sell, the market holds steady. If that flips, things stall out.

“The imbalance creates a slight bearish bias,” Thielen said. “Making a breakout unlikely without a clear shift in our tactical flow indicator. Until that signal improves, consolidation is expected to continue.”

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