Is there a correlation between Fed interest rates and Bitcoin prices?
The interest rate cut is coming. Is it a good thing or a bad thing? Or is the higher liquidity brought by the interest rate cut actually good for the price of Bitcoin? See what intuitive feelings you can find from historical data?
We captured the U.S. dollar interest rate and Bitcoin price curve from 2010 to 2024, and looked at the trend change of Bitcoin price after each interest rate change point.
We can see:
1. 2016-2018: The Federal Reserve began to raise interest rates from 0.5% to 2.25%. During this period, BTC price also experienced significant gains, rising from $500 to nearly $17,000. This shows that at this stage, BTC prices are surging despite rising interest rates.
2. From 2018 to 2019, the Federal Reserve continued to raise interest rates, and the price of Bitcoin fell from a high of 17,000 to around US$3,400. During this period, the Federal Reserve stopped raising interest rates, and the price of Bitcoin rebounded, returning from US$3,400 to around 11,000.
3. 2019-early 2020: The Federal Reserve begins to cut interest rates, from 2.25% to 0.25%. BTC prices fluctuated and fell back during this period.
4. From March 2020 to February 2022, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 0.25%, and the price of Bitcoin rose from around 8,000 to around 61,000;
5. In March 2022, the Federal Reserve entered the interest rate hike cycle again. The price of Bitcoin fell from a high to around 16,000 in the early stage of the interest rate hike cycle, and then rose to around 71,000.
To summarize past data: The first interest rate hike cycle: BTC first rose and then fell; The first interest rate cut cycle: BTC goes sideways The second interest rate hike cycle: BTC fell first and then rose During both periods when interest rates remain unchanged, BTC will rise;
If nothing unexpected happens, the Federal Reserve will start to cut interest rates in September this year. What do you think the trend of Bitcoin will be like? Fall first and then rise? Or pull up after going sideways?
Stablecoins Cannot Become the Pillar of Future Monetary Systems
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) 2025 Annual Economic Report Chapter III clearly states that although stablecoins have certain advantages in programmability and cross-border payments, they cannot become the pillar of future monetary systems due to significant defects in the three major tests of singleness, elasticity, and integrity.
The history of the monetary system is a constantly evolving interaction between technology and economics. From paper ledgers to digital ledgers, each technological advancement in the monetary system has propelled significant leaps in economic activity. In recent years, the rise of blockchain and tokenization technologies has brought new possibilities for monetary and financial systems. Tokenization refers to the process of recording ownership rights of real or financial assets on a programmable platform, integrating central bank reserves, commercial bank currencies, and financial assets through a unified ledger, aiming to improve the efficiency of the existing system and open up new contractual possibilities.
Bitcoin reserves are a way for governments to officially hold Bitcoin as a national financial asset, similar to gold or foreign currency. Bitcoin is suitable as a reserve because its supply is limited (only 21 million in total), effectively preventing inflation; it is decentralized, with no single entity controlling it, reducing political and economic risks; and its global acceptance is increasing, giving it international value.
In March 2025, the United States officially established a "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve," using Bitcoin as a national asset. The Bitcoin in the reserve primarily comes from seizures related to criminal or civil cases, secured by the government, and maintained through transparent reporting to uphold public trust.
Establishing this reserve brings multiple benefits: protecting the economy from the impacts of inflation and currency fluctuations, reducing dependence on traditional reserves like gold, and consolidating the United States' leadership position in the global digital finance arena.
Currently, in addition to the United States, El Salvador and the Central African Republic also hold Bitcoin reserves. In the future, the United States plans to expand the reserves to include more digital assets. To learn more about cryptocurrency news and information, please follow us.
#币安HODLer空投BMT BMT can basically be listed on the spot based on the recommendations from several Binance KOLs These days BSC has favorable conditions $cake $bnb $bmt
The president of Nankai University, Chen Yulu, pointed out in his keynote speech 'The Rise and Challenges of Cryptocurrency':
Against the backdrop of escalating global geopolitical turmoil, persistent high U.S. fiscal deficits, and a rapid increase in U.S. national debt, cryptocurrency assets, represented by Bitcoin, are receiving widespread attention. The U.S. government is accelerating the construction of a triadic 'digital dollar hegemony system' from three aspects: national strategic reserves, cryptocurrency legislation, and crypto-financial infrastructure, attempting to extend its global hegemony in the traditional financial sector into the digital economy era.
The total market value of crypto assets as a proportion of liquidity for the world's six major central banks (G6) has rapidly risen from less than 1% in 2009 to 12% by the end of 2024. In the mainstream market, the investment attributes of Bitcoin are transitioning from a niche risk asset to a mainstream asset class. The new Trump administration's proposal to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) further stimulates and strengthens this transition process.
A few days ago, while chatting with an old friend who works in a certain central office, we occasionally discussed the U.S. measures regarding Bitcoin. I was surprised by his awareness of policy trends and Bitcoin; it seems that the official and think tanks have a very clear understanding of the U.S. strategic intentions regarding crypto assets.
Keep some small money to bet on memes, Never sell your Bitcoin.
Bloomberg published an editorial stating that Bitcoin has no industrial use, no actual cash flow, and no connection to the real economy.
Bitcoin is merely a purely speculative tool. Its price entirely depends on how much a bigger fool is willing to pay.
Besides wasting taxpayer funds, creating a Bitcoin reserve will only enrich existing Bitcoin owners. The U.S. government will become that 'bigger fool' in the market.
Sun Yuchen spent 6.2m USD to buy a banana artwork titled "Comedian" which does not require special preservation,
The main reasons are as follows: 1. Replaceability: The essence of the artwork lies not in the banana itself, but in its concept. According to the artist Maurizio Cattelan's instructions, fresh bananas need to be replaced regularly during the exhibition. 2. Composition of the work: • A roll of tape • A banana • Certificate of authenticity • Detailed installation instructions 3. Display requirements: • The banana should be replaced every 7 to 10 days • It should be adhered at a height of 175 centimeters from the ground 4. Collector's responsibility: The purchaser does not need to take special care of the artwork, just purchase fresh bananas when exhibiting or transferring it. 5. Conceptual art: Sotheby's confirmed that actual materials will be replaced during each installation, as this is a piece of conceptual art. 6. Artist's attitude: When the banana is eaten, Cattelan stated, "It's completely fine."
In summary, the value of this artwork lies not in the physical object itself, but in its concept and creativity. The focus on preservation lies in keeping the certificate and installation instructions, rather than the banana itself. During the exhibition, just follow the instructions to replace the fresh banana.
Making money while lying down is the greatest dignity for adults. On the road to poetry and the distance, you need both passion and money. In the face of great opportunities like the Bitcoin ecosystem, you should suffer more when you can.
Life does not have so many climaxes, and success will only appear in 1-2 of them. Be prepared!
I remember when I first entered the scene, BTC was around 1200U, and now it's close to a hundred thousand. Choosing this industry and lying flat doing nothing might be the most correct thing I've done in my life so far.