On-chain_News

Recent analysis reveals a promising opportunity for altcoin investors, as the market enters a favorable buying zone. This is determined by comparing the 30-day average trading volume of altcoin-stablecoin pairs to their annual average. Currently, the 30-day moving average has dipped below the yearly average, indicating a potential entry point for investors.

Historically, such phases have provided lucrative opportunities for implementing a Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy. The last occurrence of this pattern was in September 2023, marking the end of the bear market. These periods can extend over several weeks or months, offering strategic advantages for mid-term investors.

Bitcoin's recent price decline from $109K to approximately $80K has not deterred the network's growth, as both the hashrate and mining difficulty have reached unprecedented levels. This increase in difficulty, while raising mining costs, underscores Bitcoin's robust fundamentals, particularly its mining power and network security. According to Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, Bitcoin's potential market cap, based on current hashrate metrics, could soar to $5 trillion. Given its present market cap of $1.6 trillion, the potential for growth remains substantial, indicating a positive outlook for the cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin's recent ~15% drawdown from ~$88,000 to ~$74,400 highlights a deeper narrative beyond price fluctuations. On-chain data reveals significant shifts in market behavior, particularly among Short-Term Holders (STH) and Long-Term Holders (LTH). On April 7th, STHs realized $10.1 billion in losses, while LTHs increased their holdings by $9.7 billion, indicating a transfer from weak to strong hands. This trend continued on April 8th, with STH losses slowing and LTHs accumulating further. Such structural divergence suggests a potential market bottoming phase, as STHs reduce supply and LTHs strengthen their positions, signaling optimism for long-term recovery.

Ethereum's current market dynamics reveal a challenging landscape for holders, with the average cost basis at $2.2K indicating widespread unrealized losses. However, optimism persists as the next significant support level lies at $1.29K, aligning with the cost basis of whales holding over 100K Ethereum. Historical resilience was demonstrated during the Luna crisis on June 18, 2022, when Ethereum reached a low of $870 but exhibited recovery potential. This suggests that despite current pressures, Ethereum's market structure retains the capacity for future rebounds, supported by strategic whale positions.

Bitcoin's realized price analysis, focusing on UTXO age bands, offers insights into market trends. The data highlights the behavior of short-term holders who acquired Bitcoin between 1 week to 3 months ago. Historically, upward trends in these bands have signaled the onset of bull markets, as seen in late 2020 and early 2024. Conversely, at market peaks like April 2021 and March 2025, the realized price often flattens, indicating profit-taking by short-term holders. Currently, the downward curve in the 1m–3m cohort's realized price suggests potential market cooling, pointing to possible consolidation after Bitcoin's peak above $100K.

Bitcoin's trading volume ratio over a 6 to 12-month period is a key indicator of market capital inflow during this cycle, closely tied to market movements. Initially, a decline in this ratio signals the conclusion of the early bull cycle phase. A subsequent decline, lower than the first, typically marks the end of the bull cycle. As of March 2024, Bitcoin has reached a pivotal midpoint, suggesting it is on track to approach the peak of the current bull cycle. This analysis underscores a positive outlook for Bitcoin's market trajectory, highlighting potential growth opportunities.

The recent analysis of the short-term SOPR chart and the UTXO Age Band for holders between 1 to 3 months reveals a decline in selling pressure from this group. These short-term investors, who are crucial to market dynamics, have shown reduced activity following profit-taking from trades held for 1-3 months. This trend is evident in the diminished movement of Bitcoin by these holders and is reflected in the short-term SOPR chart. The decrease in selling pressure suggests a potentially stabilizing effect on the market, indicating a positive outlook for Bitcoin's near-term performance.

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**Short-Term Holder Dynamics Indicate Potential Market Shift**

Recent on-chain data analysis reveals intriguing trends among Bitcoin's short-term holders, particularly those who have held their coins for 1 to 3 months. These investors have been actively selling at a loss, marking a departure from the usual behavior of those holding for less than a week. Despite these realized losses, the intensity of selling pressure has diminished, suggesting a shift in market sentiment.

Historically, substantial realized losses have often signaled local market bottoms. The current reduction in selling pressure may indicate a growing resilience among short-term holders, who appear willing to endure temporary setbacks for potential long-term gains. This behavioral shift could lead to reduced market volatility and pave the way for stabilization or even a reversal.

As short-term holders currently control 28% of Bitcoin's supply, their transition to long-term holding could significantly impact Bitcoin's trajectory, potentially driving prices beyond $150K. The coming weeks will be pivotal; continued weak realized losses and declining selling pressure may confirm a bottoming process.

Whale entities holding between 1k to 10k in cryptocurrency demonstrate a significant correlation with price movements, a pattern observed during the 2020 bull cycle and reappearing in the current cycle. Analysis indicates these entities are closely involved in trading activities, refining data to pinpoint their influence on market trends. Despite prevailing bearish sentiment, these whales are accumulating assets, suggesting optimism for future market growth. Notably, there are no indications of these leading whales exiting the market, reinforcing a positive outlook for sustained bullish momentum.

Bitcoin's recent market activity highlights a significant development in the relationship between its price and the net flow of USD into Bitcoin ETFs. On March 24, a notable surge in positive net flow of $538 million was recorded, marking the first occurrence since February 14, 2025. Positive net flows indicate increased investment in Bitcoin ETFs, reflecting strong investor demand and confidence in Bitcoin. This trend suggests a bullish sentiment, which could potentially drive Bitcoin's price higher. Such inflows are crucial indicators of market optimism, signaling potential upward price movements in the cryptocurrency sector.

Recent analysis of Bitcoin's price movement reveals significant insights into Short-Term Holders (STH) behavior. The realized price for STH has dropped to approximately $90,800, indicating unrealized losses of around 4% and an MVRV ratio of 0.96. The MVRV ratio, crucial for understanding market dynamics, compares market capitalization with realized capitalization, reflecting the average purchase price for coins held under 155 days. Historically, STH profit percentages have not exceeded 42%, often leading to market corrections. However, unrealized losses between 9% and 17% have historically prompted swift market rebounds, suggesting potential optimism for future recovery.

Coinbase Premium Index Update:

The Coinbase Premium Index, which reflects the sentiment of U.S. traders, has recently shown signs of moving into positive territory. This shift may indicate renewed interest in Bitcoin on the platform. Historically, a sustained positive index has sometimes aligned with upward price momentum, as increased demand from U.S. investors can enhance global market confidence.

However, it is essential to consider other indicators, such as trading volumes and on-chain data, to obtain a comprehensive market view. While a positive trend in the index is a bullish signal, investors should remain vigilant to other market factors that could swiftly alter sentiment.

Stablecoin data suggests the crypto market is experiencing a bull cycle correction rather than entering a bear market. The stablecoin market cap has reached a new all-time high, indicating ongoing liquidity inflow. Historically, declining stablecoin market caps have signaled bear markets, but current trends show positive growth over the last 60 days. Additionally, stablecoin inflows to exchanges have increased, reflecting investor confidence and preparation for potential buying. While stablecoin growth supports a bullish outlook, economic and policy uncertainties may influence market dynamics.

Recent blockchain data reveals significant Ethereum outflows, indicating potential shifts in market dynamics. Firstly, such outflows may suggest reduced selling pressure as traders transfer ETH to cold storage or DeFi platforms, reflecting a strategic move towards long-term holding. Secondly, this trend could imply deleveraging, with traders closing derivative positions in anticipation of further price volatility. Additionally, large outflows often signal accumulation by institutions or major investors, hinting at a bullish sentiment. If accompanied by increased spot demand or ETF inflows, this could reinforce a supply squeeze narrative, potentially driving prices upward.

Bitcoin's exchange netflow chart reveals a significant trend, with the 90-day moving average indicating the highest Bitcoin outflow from exchanges since January 2023. This period coincided with Bitcoin reaching its lowest price in the current cycle. The substantial outflow suggests a potential re-accumulation phase, as investors might be withdrawing Bitcoin from exchanges to hold in personal wallets, anticipating future price appreciation. This trend reflects a positive market sentiment and could signal increased confidence in Bitcoin's long-term value, aligning with optimistic market forecasts.

The recent movement in the 30-day EMA of the Coinbase Premium Index, which is attempting to cross above the 100-day EMA, suggests a potential increase in institutional and whale activity in Bitcoin accumulation. Historically, such crossovers have been precursors to Bitcoin price surges, indicating a possible continuation of the current bull market.

The rising Coinbase Premium Index is a strong indicator of increased institutional buying pressure. Past trends have shown that when this indicator rises, Bitcoin bull markets tend to persist, suggesting a high likelihood of an ongoing accumulation phase.

If the premium continues its upward trajectory, Bitcoin's price could experience further gains, potentially sustaining the current bullish momentum. This makes it a crucial period to closely monitor Bitcoin's market dynamics.

Bitcoin's Realized Capitalization offers a nuanced view of its valuation by considering the price at which each Bitcoin was last moved, rather than the current market price. This approach provides a more accurate reflection of Bitcoin's "real-world" value, taking into account the activity and movement within the network.

Analyzing Realized Cap through UTXO Value Bands (USD) reveals insights into investor behavior. Transactions are segmented into bands, such as $1-$100 or $1M+, allowing us to observe how different investor groups are accumulating or distributing Bitcoin.

Currently, UTXOs in the +$1M band constitute 78% of the network’s realized capitalization, highlighting the dominance of whales and institutions in influencing Bitcoin's market dynamics.

Bitcoin Miner Reserves and Market Dynamics

Miner reserves are a pivotal factor in understanding crypto price movements. Bitcoin miners either hold their earnings or sell them, influencing market sentiment and price dynamics. Since mid-2024, a notable decline in miner reserves suggests increased selling activity, potentially driven by profit realization or operational costs.

Despite a price surge at the end of 2024, miner reserves remained low, indicating continued selling. As of March 2025, reserves show a sideways trend, possibly reflecting miners' anticipation of further market rises. Investors should monitor these trends; declining reserves may signal selling pressure, while stable reserves could indicate market confidence and potential price growth.

**Unprecedented Accumulation Trends in Bitcoin**

A distinct group of high-net-worth Bitcoin holders, known as "new whales," has emerged as a significant force in the current market cycle. These addresses, holding at least 1,000 BTC with an average acquisition age of less than six months, are aggressively accumulating Bitcoin, signaling strong conviction in its long-term outlook.

On-chain data reveals that since November 2024, these wallets have acquired over 1 million BTC, with a notable acceleration in recent weeks, accumulating more than 200,000 BTC this month alone. This trend indicates increased participation from institutional or high-net-worth individuals, potentially acting as a support mechanism for Bitcoin's price.

The Realized Cap UTXO Age Bands (%) is a crucial on-chain metric that provides insights into Bitcoin's distribution based on holding duration. Recent data indicates a significant rise in the percentage of coins held for 3 to 6 months, reflecting accumulation patterns akin to those seen during the 2024 summer correction. This hodling behavior suggests investors' reluctance to sell despite current market corrections.

Historically, such resilience has been instrumental in forming market bottoms and sparking new uptrends. As long-term holders accumulate, Bitcoin's circulating supply diminishes, increasing scarcity. When demand resurfaces, this often results in price surges, propelling Bitcoin to new highs.

The data implies that the current market phase is a healthy correction rather than a prolonged bear market onset. Many investors continue to view Bitcoin as a valuable long-term asset, supporting the potential for a bullish continuation.