江湖之上

#BTC再创新高
Good morning, I didn't come to post yesterday because I was absent from work.
After this recent surge in BTC over the past two days, my account's loss has reached 10,000 today, and currently, there is only 12,000 left in the account.

It was a misjudgment; I didn't expect it to rise so strongly. On the 14th, I wrote: Be a friend of time, believe in the power of belief. I have stubbornly held on until now. Fortunately, I have consistently maintained a low position, so there has been no liquidation in the past two days.

My cost line is 1010. When I wrote the post a couple of days ago, I mentioned that I would add positions at 1050, 1060, and 1070 respectively. Later, I added a little at 1050, but seeing the strong upward momentum, I abandoned the subsequent plan to add positions.

Future expectations
Currently, the upward momentum remains strong, and the intensity and depth of the pullback are limited. If today it can pull back to between 1030 and 1040, I will choose to cut losses and then go long in the short term, hoping to recover some of the losses.

#BTC重回关键位置后走势
Good morning, it will be an exciting day again.
The account balance up to now is 15000, and since the post yesterday, I have lost 6000, which is still within the acceptable range.

Review of yesterday
For the past two days, I have been insisting that there would be a pullback to 970-980, so I firmly opened a short position, and then there were no other operations, resulting in the current loss. Yesterday I also said, "There should be a significant drop or a test of highs this week," but I didn't expect it to test the highs so quickly. Indeed, I misjudged, and it seems I was too complacent. The saying 'after the clouds clear, the moon will appear' was indeed said too early yesterday. Now it's really about waiting for the clouds to clear and quietly waiting for the flowers to bloom.

Future expectations
I currently opened a short position at 1010, with a position size of 18%. Actually, at this point, cutting losses is completely acceptable, but I still decide to trust myself and prepare to hold the position. I will add 5% at 1050, 8% at 1060, and 5% at 1070. If Bitcoin just charges straight up to 110,000, then it indeed means my skills and understanding are limited, and I will accept the loss.
Everyone can also discuss this together.

#BTC重回关键位置后走势
Good morning, I'm here to submit my homework again.
The account went from 22,000 the day before yesterday to 16,000 yesterday, and today it has returned to 21,000.

Today's recovery is thanks to executing the expected strategy mentioned in yesterday's post. I didn't make any moves yesterday, just waited for the pullback and trusted my judgment. This morning, I woke up to see that it had reached the breakeven price, and I suddenly had a feeling of 'after the clouds and rain, the moon becomes clear'.

Yesterday I said to watch the daily chart; there could be a pullback to 970-980 in the next couple of days. However, I closed my position at 1006 this morning, which was lucky as I closed at the lowest point so far today. I didn't close because I changed my view; I mentioned yesterday that my current position is too high (55%), and this market isn't suitable for such a high position. So after closing, I opened a short position at 1010 with a 16% position, which feels much safer.

Today's expectation
My expectation for today and tomorrow is still that there is a possibility of a pullback to 970-980. However, if it really drops down, I might not wait for that position and will choose to close earlier to secure profits. If there isn't significant volume afterward, I will likely choose to stand aside and observe.
Looking at the trends over the past couple of days, it feels like both bulls and bears are uncertain. When the market is divided and about to make a decision, it's best for us small investors to trade less and keep our positions below 20%. I think there might be a significant drop or a test of highs next week.
Everyone can feel free to discuss this together. $BTC

#BTC重回关键位置后走势
I posted late today. I stayed up late to watch the market for several days, so I got up late today.
The account has suffered a large loss today. The current account is: 16,000. The loss from yesterday to now is: 6,000
I can't blame the market for this loss. It's all caused by my own operation during a meal.

Let's review yesterday
When I posted yesterday morning, I was still bearish on the correction. From the chart analysis, it is indeed like a short-term correction. Then I looked around the square in the afternoon and found that most people agreed with me. This made me panic. If most people agree, then it is likely to be wrong, so I decisively stopped profit and bought long orders. But a simple decline in the evening directly made me chase the rise and kill the fall, selling long orders and opening short orders. So it led to the current loss.
There are two main reasons for my operation. The first is that the continuous increase in the account in the past few days has made me overly concerned about the temporary profit and loss of the account. I think that when I post every day, the account should be rising, so a small fluctuation affects my judgment. The other is that I pay too much attention to the K-line trend of 1 hour and 4 hours. This is actually the same as the first problem in essence, and I am still too concerned about the temporary profit and loss of the account.
In fact, according to my own position control, short-term large fluctuations will not make me blow up my position, so I can operate according to the daily trend. If I can follow my previous judgment of the trend and operate according to the daily line, I should also be profitable at present.
So I still have to be a friend of time and believe in the power of belief.

Subsequent expectations
I personally don’t think there is any need to panic about this wave of stretching just now, after all, there is no large volume. From the daily line, there is still a possibility of falling back to 970-980 in the next two days. So I won’t easily add positions to cover my positions in the next two days, and I am ready to wait for one hand, and the current position has exceeded my expectations (55%). But if there is a large volume breakthrough above 1040 in the next two days, I will consider stop loss.
You can also discuss $BTC

By the time of this post today, the account now has 22,000, an increase of 6,000 in profit compared to yesterday. From a principal of 4,000 opened on the 5th, it has quadrupled in 8 days, and as a new investor, I am quite happy.

Let's review yesterday,
The expectation of yesterday's post was bullish, and I said it might reach the 1050-1060 level, and I bought more myself.
However, I should have been more grounded yesterday and made several quick trades back and forth. Although these trades were all profitable, the frequent short-term trading made me overly focused on the 15-minute chart, leading to a relatively excited state, which resulted in a misjudgment of the overall trend last night. I originally expected to go long at the 1010 level but ultimately chose to short. Later, the price rose all the way to 1025, with my maximum loss nearing 600 u.
Fortunately, I always mention opening positions with low leverage, which allows me to leave myself a way out for mistakes. I shorted with 28% of my position, and during the upward movement, the market looked like it had limited volume, combined with the movement of U.S. stocks, so I chose to add 5% to my position for every 300 point rise. I kept my cost line within a controllable range, so by the time of the final pullback, my loss turned into a profit.

Although I ended up with a profit last night, I believe that the high-frequency short-term trading from yesterday is not very advisable. I need to pay more attention to the 1-hour, 4-hour, and daily charts to assess the overall trend and not get carried away by temporary profits.

Now, about today's expectations,
Today’s expectation is a bearish pullback, so I am still holding onto the short position that is currently profitable and have not taken profits yet. As for how low it might go, I cannot be certain, perhaps around 960-970. Today, I will watch the hourly moving average trend to decide whether to take profits.

Today when posting, the account is now 16,000, which is an increase of 5,000 in profit compared to yesterday. It has been exactly one week since opening the account last Thursday on the 5th, and the 4,000 capital has tripled by now. It's really just because the principal is too low and the time is very short, so it doesn't represent much, but I'm still very happy, let's continue moving forward.

Reviewing yesterday,
Yesterday morning, I mentioned my plan to short around the 955-958 level, then go long. However, I missed the short position, which led to a withdrawal of most of the profit. Fortunately, I managed to go short and then long in time afterwards, resulting in today's profit.
The thinking behind going long yesterday was based on the chart and intuition, feeling that there was a demand for a rebound after a sharp decline. I went to bed early last night, so I set a long position at 100,000 points before sleeping, and I really didn’t expect the rebound to be so significant; otherwise, I could have earned a bit more.
I feel like slapping my thigh a bit, but I’m more happy because I was not affected by the chaotic information in the market and still executed my expected strategy, earning what I recognized as profit, so it's worth being happy about.

Today's operational expectations
Today I still see a bullish trend. I hope to enter around the 998-999 level, but even if it doesn't drop to this position, I will still look for opportunities to go long. Although I currently have a short position at 1013, I only intend to make a little money from the pullback, and I will sell if I make a profit, and cut losses if I don’t. I haven't looked at the news yet; purely based on the market, there’s a possibility of breaking the previous high to 1050-1060, but during the day there shouldn’t be too much fluctuation space.
I am still operating with low capital to keep my options open.

$BTC $ETH
After yesterday's repeated fluctuations, I feel both fortunate and regretful that my account hasn't changed at all since the post yesterday.
Yesterday, I opened a short position with a low amount at 978, and there were actually two selling opportunities in between, at 950 in the morning and 940 in the early morning, but I missed (gave up on) both.
This is actually one of the most difficult aspects for beginners like me to make money, which is not being able to pinpoint the selling point. One issue is the inability to accurately judge the starting point of this range, and the bigger problem is that my greed gets amplified, always thinking that if I wait a bit longer, I can make more, wanting to capture the last penny of this opportunity, which leads to missing out. Although I had an expected profit-taking point in the early stages, when the opportunity is right in front of me, the expectation in my heart will also rise with the opportunity.
However, I am also fortunate that I did not lose money in this small storm yesterday. I did not make any chasing or panic selling operations due to missing the great opportunity, otherwise with yesterday's volatility, I would most likely have lost money if I had traded.
So, when we cannot accurately calculate the starting point or suppress greed in the early stages, we need to accept the profit withdrawal, accept that we missed the opportunity, and that’s okay. The opportunities in the market are always there; rather, it is our own capital and the level of leverage we use that limit the number of mistakes we can afford to make.
Take it slow, be steady, and it’s better to miss out than to make a mistake.

If it falls to around 955-958 this morning, I will sell. If it doesn’t reach this position, and if the 1-hour line is still stable by noon, I will also sell, then open a low position long around 960. If it goes above 980 in the evening, I will continue to open a low position short. In a volatile market, focus on low positions, earn a little less, and leave enough room for yourself.

$BTC $ETH
On December 5th, due to a friend's joke, I opened an account and entered the market. With the 386 USDT he gave me, I later tried depositing 200 USDT myself, entering with this little "starting capital" to see how it goes.

In the past few days, I have been buying and selling back and forth, and I have made some profits, but I don't know how long it can last. I wanted to try contracts/leverage with a small amount to gain a lot, but the results are mostly predictable.
I want to record my feelings about trading over the past few days. Simply mastering the skills of reading indicators and charts cannot support how far you can go in this game. The charts seem to provide a traceable path only in hindsight. In this game, technical analysis is just the most basic requirement; what is more important is to fight against one's own greed, speculate on the intentions of the market makers, deal with the lagging information, and navigate the mixed analyses that interfere with one's own judgment. These are difficult to overcome, so if you want to be more stable, try to control your position based on the charts; high leverage gambling is not advisable, especially during this period of fluctuation and adjustment.

As for how to operate next, I am not very clear either. After a night of turmoil yesterday, there shouldn't be too much fluctuation during the day today; it will likely fluctuate between 970 and 990. I am currently shorting at the low position of 978, and my position shouldn't change much during the day unless it rises above 995, in which case I will add a small amount. Mainly, I will look after 6 PM and adjust my position based on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts.