Charlie-子涵
Nostr闪电网络鼓吹者
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1
PhyrexNi
--
If a recession leads to a significant drop, how would I bottom fish?
Today I happened to chat with a friend about this issue, and I will share my personal views, which are just personal opinions and do not necessarily represent the truth. The data used are all from economic recession data after the year 2000.
1. Use S&P 500 as a reference
Recessions often bring declines in risk markets, and the S&P is generally a good reference:
A. In the recession caused by the tech bubble burst in 2001, the maximum drop of the S&P 500 was -49%, with an average drop of -22%.
B. In the recession caused by the financial crisis in 2008, the maximum drop of the S&P 500 was -57%, with an average drop of -38%.
C. In the recession triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the maximum drop of the S&P 500 was -34%, with an average drop of -28%.
So if this time is a recession, then my first bottom fishing point should be after the S&P drops by 20%. Based on the current price of the S&P 500, this would mean starting to bottom fish Bitcoin when it falls below 4,000 points (or 4,400 points).
2. Use VIX as a reference
VIX is equivalent to the panic index for U.S. stocks and is also very useful data. I have mentioned it many times before; generally speaking, a VIX of 30 can be viewed as a pullback, exceeding 50 basically indicates a recession path, and over 80 signifies the peak of a recession. It can be seen that the peaks in 2008 and 2020 both exceeded 80.
So my idea is to start bottom fishing when VIX exceeds 70 (taking the middle value) and continue to buy Bitcoin.
3. Use URPD as a reference
I won't say much about the URPD data as it is monitored daily, and the support for URPD has been validated again in the past two months, including the previously mentioned $BTC 70,000 bottom support which is also valid. Additionally, I do not rule out the possibility of a spike dropping below $70,000, but the range between $70,000 and $80,000 is very likely to be a regular interval during a recession.
So my thought is to start bottom fishing Bitcoin when it drops below $75,000. However, because I am not sure if it will reach this position, I have used the S&P 500 and VIX as references; essentially, whichever of these three arrives first, I will start buying, always averaging down as the price drops.
4. Use Entity-Adjusted LTH-NUPL as a reference
This data has been used recently when discussing $ETH, and it is even more applicable to $BTC, and it has never been wrong. The reason I placed this data last is that I am not sure if even in a recession Bitcoin can be pushed into the red zone. If it can truly enter, this indicator will be my main bottom fishing indicator.
Begin buying when it enters the red zone, buying more as it drops.
Apart from the fourth type of Entity-Adjusted LTH-NUPL data, I cannot be certain that bottom fishing is always the right position, and even with the Entity-Adjusted LTH-NUPL data, it does not guarantee hitting the lowest point. Therefore, if a recession occurs that causes Bitcoin to fall, bottom fishing should also be gradual. These are still just data standards and must be assessed in the context of macro events.
This is just a personal opinion and should not be taken as legal advice.
This tweet is sponsored by @ApeXProtocolCN | Dex With ApeX
Today I happened to chat with a friend about this issue, and I will share my personal views, which are just personal opinions and do not necessarily represent the truth. The data used are all from economic recession data after the year 2000.
1. Use S&P 500 as a reference
Recessions often bring declines in risk markets, and the S&P is generally a good reference:
A. In the recession caused by the tech bubble burst in 2001, the maximum drop of the S&P 500 was -49%, with an average drop of -22%.
B. In the recession caused by the financial crisis in 2008, the maximum drop of the S&P 500 was -57%, with an average drop of -38%.
C. In the recession triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the maximum drop of the S&P 500 was -34%, with an average drop of -28%.
So if this time is a recession, then my first bottom fishing point should be after the S&P drops by 20%. Based on the current price of the S&P 500, this would mean starting to bottom fish Bitcoin when it falls below 4,000 points (or 4,400 points).
2. Use VIX as a reference
VIX is equivalent to the panic index for U.S. stocks and is also very useful data. I have mentioned it many times before; generally speaking, a VIX of 30 can be viewed as a pullback, exceeding 50 basically indicates a recession path, and over 80 signifies the peak of a recession. It can be seen that the peaks in 2008 and 2020 both exceeded 80.
So my idea is to start bottom fishing when VIX exceeds 70 (taking the middle value) and continue to buy Bitcoin.
3. Use URPD as a reference
I won't say much about the URPD data as it is monitored daily, and the support for URPD has been validated again in the past two months, including the previously mentioned $BTC 70,000 bottom support which is also valid. Additionally, I do not rule out the possibility of a spike dropping below $70,000, but the range between $70,000 and $80,000 is very likely to be a regular interval during a recession.
So my thought is to start bottom fishing Bitcoin when it drops below $75,000. However, because I am not sure if it will reach this position, I have used the S&P 500 and VIX as references; essentially, whichever of these three arrives first, I will start buying, always averaging down as the price drops.
4. Use Entity-Adjusted LTH-NUPL as a reference
This data has been used recently when discussing $ETH, and it is even more applicable to $BTC, and it has never been wrong. The reason I placed this data last is that I am not sure if even in a recession Bitcoin can be pushed into the red zone. If it can truly enter, this indicator will be my main bottom fishing indicator.
Begin buying when it enters the red zone, buying more as it drops.
Apart from the fourth type of Entity-Adjusted LTH-NUPL data, I cannot be certain that bottom fishing is always the right position, and even with the Entity-Adjusted LTH-NUPL data, it does not guarantee hitting the lowest point. Therefore, if a recession occurs that causes Bitcoin to fall, bottom fishing should also be gradual. These are still just data standards and must be assessed in the context of macro events.
This is just a personal opinion and should not be taken as legal advice.
This tweet is sponsored by @ApeXProtocolCN | Dex With ApeX
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How to play I Charge 1000
The first AI agent project of the $ICP ecosystem, Alice, is about to launch SNS (public offering), developed by on-chain mining developer BOB. I personally have a good outlook on it and plan to invest around 2000 ICP.
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How to do it
The on-chain mining game of $ICP is about to launch, and I wonder how many times we can earn this time!
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Need
Do you need a tutorial? I can provide one if needed.
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Followed
杀破狼 WolfyXBT
--
Bullish
I am fully armed! Ready to welcome the Altcoin Season!
My main position is in $ETH. For the past few months, I have been accumulating $ETH spot, and the average price is not very low, around 2800. During this decline, I chose to take some $ETH spot out to long with 3x leverage, keeping the liquidation price below 2000 to prevent extreme market conditions from liquidating me.
I have also basically bought all the altcoins I wanted to buy. Everyone has been asking me what I bought, and I don't mind sharing, but this is not investment advice, and I am not a trading expert, so just consider it as a reference:
$ENA $EIGEN $CRV $AAVE $ONDO $USUAL $BANANA $FUEL $PUFFER
I won't disclose some other meme coins; they are just small holdings.
My main position is in $ETH. For the past few months, I have been accumulating $ETH spot, and the average price is not very low, around 2800. During this decline, I chose to take some $ETH spot out to long with 3x leverage, keeping the liquidation price below 2000 to prevent extreme market conditions from liquidating me.
I have also basically bought all the altcoins I wanted to buy. Everyone has been asking me what I bought, and I don't mind sharing, but this is not investment advice, and I am not a trading expert, so just consider it as a reference:
$ENA $EIGEN $CRV $AAVE $ONDO $USUAL $BANANA $FUEL $PUFFER
I won't disclose some other meme coins; they are just small holdings.
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He is the one who needs to repay more coins for the loan, haha
$ZEN Now the square is full of mindless people, they don't even know what the gray scale is for, really it's all just stupid stuff
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How to play?
Keep taking off, I hope to achieve financial freedom this year through $ICP
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Thank you
Is this true? If so, when did it happen? Thank you 🙏
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Is this true? If so, when did it happen? Thank you 🙏
Ishaaq Ziyan
--
The #ICP Pulse - S03 E52 - 06/12/2024
Gmgmgmgm Square Fam!
It's a slow flow Friday at the Pulse HQ today🏖️
Welcome to the 52nd episode of The #ICP Pulse Season 3, your daily dose of all things on ICP
This is your weekly recap🙂
But, before we start...
I've put a lot of effort and time into this series, so if you don't mind, please consider liking this episode and supporting me by subscribing.
This will help me provide you with more quality information, thank you🫶
Now, without further ado, Let's get into today's episode🚀
1️⃣ $ICP Price action
Hmm. what a beautiful scenario to look at 👏
The traders successfully handled the rejection yesterday, leading to this god-green candle.
Speaking of numbers, what I am looking to in terms of this week is to strongly hold within the 15-16 USD range, and also to complete the week with a candle closing at the range of 15.6-15.8 USD.
Once we take the 1 fib zone, the next stop is around 22 USD, which is a 35.9% increase, which should happen within the following weeks, if the tables stay intact.
The VPVR indicator has historically experienced little to no sell pressure, but that does not necessarily mean that things remain the same.
Remember, markets do not repeat themselves in the same phases but always rhyme.
Now, we wait⚡
As always, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, SO DYOR🫡
Now we head to,
2️⃣Onchain Stats
Sources: IC Dashboard, ICTerminal, and @TokenTerminal
🟪Internet Identity Stats
As of press time, the IC was able to onboard around 8.3K entities into the eco.
This resulted in a 🔺+40% increment of this metric, since the last week.
🟪Burned ICP Stats
The ICP community continues to cook while burning more and more ICP tokens, as they push towards deflation.
As a result, around 29.7K ICP worth 446K USD was burned out from the circulation supply🔥🔥🔥🔥
🟪Mcap vs Fees [Weekly]
From this TokenTerminal chart, we can see that the IC steadily generated around 226K USD in fees within this week, while the FDV marketcap had steady growth.
🟪Number of New Addresses
As of press time, there were new 12K addresses activated on the Internet Computer Mainnet, within the week.
3️⃣NFT Stats
Sources: Toniq, Bioniq and Yuku
1️⃣Motoko Ghosts --> 🔻18.84 ICP
2️⃣BTC Flower --> 🔺36.79 ICP
3️⃣ETH Flower --> 7.3 ICP
4️⃣Dcity--> 10.5 ICP
5️⃣Poked Bots by pokedstudiouk --> 🔻7 ICP
6️⃣ Goated Gamer by The_Swop --> 2K sats ckBTC
7️⃣Motoko Sentinels--> 0.00045 ckBTC
8️⃣Cubetopia Islands --> 9.5 ICP
9️⃣Distrikt PODs --> 1.5 ICP
🔟ICP flower --> 🔻8 ICP
4️⃣Gainers and Losers
Source: ICPcoins and ICPTokens
Note: weekly recap, this indicates weekly gains
🟣Gainers
➡️Querio --> 0.169 USD @ 378K USD Marketcap (🔺86.4%)
➡️Kongswap --> 0.0281 USD @ 28.1M USD Marketcap (🔺37.4%)
➡️Windoge98 --> 1.04 USD @ 10.2M USD Marketcap (🔺36.3%)
🟣Losers
➡️WaterNeuron--> 0.404 USD @ 47.1M USD Marketcap (🔻8.4%)
➡️DecideAI--> 0.0513 USD @ 50.3M USD Marketcap (🔻2.3%)
5️⃣Inside the ICVerse🧑🚀
🟪3 Voting Proposals in the NNS.
🟪4 Voting Proposals in the Yral SNS.
🟪2 Voting Proposals in Openchat SNS.
🟪1 Voting Proposal each in the ICLighthouse,gldrwa, and Kinic SNS.
🟪TVL on NNS: 3.485 Billion USD [🔺28.3%]
🟪TVL on ICP DeFi By DefiLlama: 74.36M USD [🔺20.89%]
🟪Updates from the DFINITY Foundation🔮
➡️icpp art NFT is live at bioniq.
➡️An explanation of the Bitcoin Integration.
➡️kristoferlund ships an explanation on how to build an ICP app that uses Ethereum via Chain Fusion.
➡️A huge shoutout to the legends fxgst, domiwoe, cryptoschindler, pe4enable and VinayakKaira2 for their mentorship provision for the ChainFusion Hacker house at EFDevcon.
6️⃣Updates from the ICP ecosystem
➡️The_Swop announces phillyflyboy as the next special guest to the DAO-Liday Party.
➡️icphub_PL completes ICP workshop with over 100+ participants.
➡️junobuild ships the latest version to the latest frameworks and also enables support for Chinese.
➡️bitfinitynet ships the latest blog episode explaining Bitcoin prediction markets.
➡️ICPSwap ships detailed data dashboards and emoji stickers pack or TG.
➡️OmnityNetwork is live at inscribAtlantis today
➡️Sonic commences LP migration to v3✈️
➡️trax to conduct Live AMA with the legend jerrybanfield today at 17:00 UTC
➡️Querio ships the latest updates on their whitepaper, AI platform, and offline mode.
➡️Plug wallet ships built-in browser to mobile wallets across Android and iOS.
➡️Lyfelynk ships a sneak peek on their upcoming MVP.
So, Here I wrap up for the day😇
Hats off for staying this far🫡
Now, before we wind up, feel free to share this with everyone who might lack some ICP Alpha, especially the #BTCRecoveredTo97K Fam :)
Now go unplug those wallets, and revoke your permissions as we meet the weekend 🥳
Btw, as I promised the quiz is here and will be live every Friday🤩
I'll see ya next week with your daily dose on ICP🫡
Until then, Take care👋
It's a slow flow Friday at the Pulse HQ today🏖️
Welcome to the 52nd episode of The #ICP Pulse Season 3, your daily dose of all things on ICP
This is your weekly recap🙂
But, before we start...
I've put a lot of effort and time into this series, so if you don't mind, please consider liking this episode and supporting me by subscribing.
This will help me provide you with more quality information, thank you🫶
Now, without further ado, Let's get into today's episode🚀
1️⃣ $ICP Price action
Hmm. what a beautiful scenario to look at 👏
The traders successfully handled the rejection yesterday, leading to this god-green candle.
Speaking of numbers, what I am looking to in terms of this week is to strongly hold within the 15-16 USD range, and also to complete the week with a candle closing at the range of 15.6-15.8 USD.
Once we take the 1 fib zone, the next stop is around 22 USD, which is a 35.9% increase, which should happen within the following weeks, if the tables stay intact.
The VPVR indicator has historically experienced little to no sell pressure, but that does not necessarily mean that things remain the same.
Remember, markets do not repeat themselves in the same phases but always rhyme.
Now, we wait⚡
As always, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, SO DYOR🫡
Now we head to,
2️⃣Onchain Stats
Sources: IC Dashboard, ICTerminal, and @TokenTerminal
🟪Internet Identity Stats
As of press time, the IC was able to onboard around 8.3K entities into the eco.
This resulted in a 🔺+40% increment of this metric, since the last week.
🟪Burned ICP Stats
The ICP community continues to cook while burning more and more ICP tokens, as they push towards deflation.
As a result, around 29.7K ICP worth 446K USD was burned out from the circulation supply🔥🔥🔥🔥
🟪Mcap vs Fees [Weekly]
From this TokenTerminal chart, we can see that the IC steadily generated around 226K USD in fees within this week, while the FDV marketcap had steady growth.
🟪Number of New Addresses
As of press time, there were new 12K addresses activated on the Internet Computer Mainnet, within the week.
3️⃣NFT Stats
Sources: Toniq, Bioniq and Yuku
1️⃣Motoko Ghosts --> 🔻18.84 ICP
2️⃣BTC Flower --> 🔺36.79 ICP
3️⃣ETH Flower --> 7.3 ICP
4️⃣Dcity--> 10.5 ICP
5️⃣Poked Bots by pokedstudiouk --> 🔻7 ICP
6️⃣ Goated Gamer by The_Swop --> 2K sats ckBTC
7️⃣Motoko Sentinels--> 0.00045 ckBTC
8️⃣Cubetopia Islands --> 9.5 ICP
9️⃣Distrikt PODs --> 1.5 ICP
🔟ICP flower --> 🔻8 ICP
4️⃣Gainers and Losers
Source: ICPcoins and ICPTokens
Note: weekly recap, this indicates weekly gains
🟣Gainers
➡️Querio --> 0.169 USD @ 378K USD Marketcap (🔺86.4%)
➡️Kongswap --> 0.0281 USD @ 28.1M USD Marketcap (🔺37.4%)
➡️Windoge98 --> 1.04 USD @ 10.2M USD Marketcap (🔺36.3%)
🟣Losers
➡️WaterNeuron--> 0.404 USD @ 47.1M USD Marketcap (🔻8.4%)
➡️DecideAI--> 0.0513 USD @ 50.3M USD Marketcap (🔻2.3%)
5️⃣Inside the ICVerse🧑🚀
🟪3 Voting Proposals in the NNS.
🟪4 Voting Proposals in the Yral SNS.
🟪2 Voting Proposals in Openchat SNS.
🟪1 Voting Proposal each in the ICLighthouse,gldrwa, and Kinic SNS.
🟪TVL on NNS: 3.485 Billion USD [🔺28.3%]
🟪TVL on ICP DeFi By DefiLlama: 74.36M USD [🔺20.89%]
🟪Updates from the DFINITY Foundation🔮
➡️icpp art NFT is live at bioniq.
➡️An explanation of the Bitcoin Integration.
➡️kristoferlund ships an explanation on how to build an ICP app that uses Ethereum via Chain Fusion.
➡️A huge shoutout to the legends fxgst, domiwoe, cryptoschindler, pe4enable and VinayakKaira2 for their mentorship provision for the ChainFusion Hacker house at EFDevcon.
6️⃣Updates from the ICP ecosystem
➡️The_Swop announces phillyflyboy as the next special guest to the DAO-Liday Party.
➡️icphub_PL completes ICP workshop with over 100+ participants.
➡️junobuild ships the latest version to the latest frameworks and also enables support for Chinese.
➡️bitfinitynet ships the latest blog episode explaining Bitcoin prediction markets.
➡️ICPSwap ships detailed data dashboards and emoji stickers pack or TG.
➡️OmnityNetwork is live at inscribAtlantis today
➡️Sonic commences LP migration to v3✈️
➡️trax to conduct Live AMA with the legend jerrybanfield today at 17:00 UTC
➡️Querio ships the latest updates on their whitepaper, AI platform, and offline mode.
➡️Plug wallet ships built-in browser to mobile wallets across Android and iOS.
➡️Lyfelynk ships a sneak peek on their upcoming MVP.
So, Here I wrap up for the day😇
Hats off for staying this far🫡
Now, before we wind up, feel free to share this with everyone who might lack some ICP Alpha, especially the #BTCRecoveredTo97K Fam :)
Now go unplug those wallets, and revoke your permissions as we meet the weekend 🥳
Btw, as I promised the quiz is here and will be live every Friday🤩
I'll see ya next week with your daily dose on ICP🫡
Until then, Take care👋
See original
Trash
$SSV Haha bought 26 altcoins, the others have all increased by at least 3 to 5 times, and some by 10 times. I bought 2 of the worst ones, one SSV and one People. Today, People actually went up a bit, and these 2 coins have made it onto the garbage leaderboard. I really don't understand why those who buy altcoins are willing to go all-in on a trash coin like SSV. My biggest position in Pepe has increased by over 20 times, and recently CRV has been great too, Sushi is also doing well. Do you see me cursing? Damn it, I only curse garbage. SSV is really freaking trash compared to these altcoins, it's like a pile of crap. Other altcoins are doing so well, and it's uncomfortable when this one doesn't rise. Going all-in on this trash, you guys are really amazing. I just want to ask, can you hold on to it?
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When was the pledge made?
$ICP worth over 2 billion dollars has been staked for 8 years.
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One
Top trader with 1.25 million YouTube followers, trading strategies fully disclosed
Ross Cameron, a YouTuber with 1.25 million followers, turned a $583 account into over $10 million. He said he used to trade like a headless chicken, eventually suffering a devastating margin call. It was only after this that he began to focus on researching trading strategies. Finally, one day, he found a trading model and has been executing it ever since.
Although many KOLs are questioned as to why, if they have such strong trading abilities, they choose to be KOLs, Ross Cameron often conducts real-time challenges during live broadcasts, repeatedly turning a few hundred dollars into tens of thousands or more within a month, leaving skeptics speechless.
Although many KOLs are questioned as to why, if they have such strong trading abilities, they choose to be KOLs, Ross Cameron often conducts real-time challenges during live broadcasts, repeatedly turning a few hundred dollars into tens of thousands or more within a month, leaving skeptics speechless.
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🚀Part 3 of our series “Why Bitcoin + Lightning + Nostr?”
⚡️Discover the secret
✅ How NostrAssets addresses Bitcoin ecosystem challenges
✅ Its role in enhancing Bitcoin’s utility and scalability
✅Revolutionary asset management
Read: linky.quest/whybtcp3
⚡️Discover the secret
✅ How NostrAssets addresses Bitcoin ecosystem challenges
✅ Its role in enhancing Bitcoin’s utility and scalability
✅Revolutionary asset management
Read: linky.quest/whybtcp3
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#nostor #NostrAssets Everyone has made a lot of money recently, but don’t forget to buy low nostor~
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#NostrAssets #nostor The new staking phase of Lightning Network TNA begins, what will you choose?
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Both double T and nostr can be pledged, and nostr has an extra pool!
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A new era is coming~
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