莫问ToDaMoon
微博、公众号“莫问ToDaMoon”。每周一、三、五更新技术面，每周二、四、六更新消息面，
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API3
The oracle LINK performed well overall in August. If you missed LINK, there's also API3 under it.
This pullback has shown strong performance, with the daily price standing above the middle track and attempting to break through resistance.
In the short term, a 4-hour pullback is occurring, with the current price at 0.85. Looking short-term at around 1.0, and then around 1.3.
The oracle LINK performed well overall in August. If you missed LINK, there's also API3 under it.
This pullback has shown strong performance, with the daily price standing above the middle track and attempting to break through resistance.
In the short term, a 4-hour pullback is occurring, with the current price at 0.85. Looking short-term at around 1.0, and then around 1.3.
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ARB
Is one that I am relatively optimistic about in this round of the ETH ecosystem. It has broken through on the daily chart, and after the breakthrough, the direction is chosen.
Currently, it is retracing near the neckline at 0.5. After the retracement, I expect it to continue upward.
For those who did not enter at 0.48 previously, they can also consider entering near the 0.5 retracement.
Is one that I am relatively optimistic about in this round of the ETH ecosystem. It has broken through on the daily chart, and after the breakthrough, the direction is chosen.
Currently, it is retracing near the neckline at 0.5. After the retracement, I expect it to continue upward.
For those who did not enter at 0.48 previously, they can also consider entering near the 0.5 retracement.
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Can SSV return to its peak?
Firstly, SSV is part of the Ethereum ecosystem. If you believe that ETH will perform well in this round, then its ecosystem shouldn't be too far behind,
Secondly, looking at the monthly chart, it has faced pressure and has been sideways, with 4 unsuccessful attempts to push higher. However, I believe that next time it will directly break through the upper pressure,
Why? Next, looking at the weekly chart, the mid-line at 8.37 has flattened and started to rise. This is a very critical position, coinciding with the Fibonacci retracement of 50%, so now is a key moment to pay attention to;
Finally, the daily chart is forming a converging triangle structure, which generally accompanies a significant breakout. The day of the breakout will be a day of celebration. Currently, it is still oscillating within the structure, and approaching the lower boundary around 8.22 would be a good entry point.
Firstly, SSV is part of the Ethereum ecosystem. If you believe that ETH will perform well in this round, then its ecosystem shouldn't be too far behind,
Secondly, looking at the monthly chart, it has faced pressure and has been sideways, with 4 unsuccessful attempts to push higher. However, I believe that next time it will directly break through the upper pressure,
Why? Next, looking at the weekly chart, the mid-line at 8.37 has flattened and started to rise. This is a very critical position, coinciding with the Fibonacci retracement of 50%, so now is a key moment to pay attention to;
Finally, the daily chart is forming a converging triangle structure, which generally accompanies a significant breakout. The day of the breakout will be a day of celebration. Currently, it is still oscillating within the structure, and approaching the lower boundary around 8.22 would be a good entry point.
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ETH
Intraday 4241——4310 gained 70 points, there are quite a few key events this week,
continue to wait for opportunities, the one thing in abundance is opportunities!
Intraday 4241——4310 gained 70 points, there are quite a few key events this week,
continue to wait for opportunities, the one thing in abundance is opportunities!
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OP
The daily chart is forming a bottom. If the middle track at 0.726 cannot hold, then we should expect around 0.61 below.
The weekly chart is the same; it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now;
If the daily chart's middle track at 0.726 can hold, then we will look for a bottom on the 4-hour chart before considering further.
The daily chart is forming a bottom. If the middle track at 0.726 cannot hold, then we should expect around 0.61 below.
The weekly chart is the same; it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now;
If the daily chart's middle track at 0.726 can hold, then we will look for a bottom on the 4-hour chart before considering further.
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SUI
The situation is very bad, the overall shape has peaked, both the left and right sides have completed,
The right-side head and shoulders on the 4-hour chart have broken down through the neckline, subsequent focus is on the downside,
First looking at around 3.2, then looking at around 2.9.
The situation is very bad, the overall shape has peaked, both the left and right sides have completed,
The right-side head and shoulders on the 4-hour chart have broken down through the neckline, subsequent focus is on the downside,
First looking at around 3.2, then looking at around 2.9.
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PEPE
Still oscillating near the lower edge of the daily triangle structure, waiting for oscillation on the 4-hour chart,
Current price 0.0000106 continues to buy in batches, just waiting for the pump to happen.
Still oscillating near the lower edge of the daily triangle structure, waiting for oscillation on the 4-hour chart,
Current price 0.0000106 continues to buy in batches, just waiting for the pump to happen.
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BTC and ETH Outlook on 8.18:
Looking back at what was said yesterday, the recommended support for BTC and ETH has moved down over time, and the gaps of 115300 and 4250 have basically been filled.
BTC
After the gap is filled, there will be a short-term corrective rally. The range of 11500—115300 can be used as a new support entry point, and this support is also a previous support point during the consolidation;
ETH
After the gap is filled, there will be short-term consolidation and correction. Once again, it is possible to enter in batches in the range of 4250—2310. After the correction, a V-shaped rebound will likely mark the stage bottom!
Looking back at what was said yesterday, the recommended support for BTC and ETH has moved down over time, and the gaps of 115300 and 4250 have basically been filled.
BTC
After the gap is filled, there will be a short-term corrective rally. The range of 11500—115300 can be used as a new support entry point, and this support is also a previous support point during the consolidation;
ETH
After the gap is filled, there will be short-term consolidation and correction. Once again, it is possible to enter in batches in the range of 4250—2310. After the correction, a V-shaped rebound will likely mark the stage bottom!
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A
After completing the previously mentioned target of 0.6, there will be a pullback. The daily chart needs a few days to consolidate,
The 4-hour chart is being pressured by resistance levels and the middle line, and there are not many good opportunities.
Currently, it is recommended to observe and wait for smaller timeframe signals to enter.
After completing the previously mentioned target of 0.6, there will be a pullback. The daily chart needs a few days to consolidate,
The 4-hour chart is being pressured by resistance levels and the middle line, and there are not many good opportunities.
Currently, it is recommended to observe and wait for smaller timeframe signals to enter.
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BOME
After a 15-minute rise, the daily line has already stood above the middle track,
short-term resistance above at 0.001916. Personally, I am quite optimistic about the subsequent breakout,
entry can be made around 0.0019, continue to pay attention.
After a 15-minute rise, the daily line has already stood above the middle track,
short-term resistance above at 0.001916. Personally, I am quite optimistic about the subsequent breakout,
entry can be made around 0.0019, continue to pay attention.
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PEPE
The last review mentioned the opportunity to buy near the lower edge of the triangle structure around 0.0000111.
Currently waiting for the fluctuations to complete, continue to hold, what is meant to come will come!
The last review mentioned the opportunity to buy near the lower edge of the triangle structure around 0.0000111.
Currently waiting for the fluctuations to complete, continue to hold, what is meant to come will come!
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BTC and ETH Insights as of 8.17:
BTC
Still oscillating, but over time, the lower moving support continues to decline. Although the daily 20-line at 116890 serves as support, be cautious of false breakdowns. Generally, the bottom at the 15-minute level is more stable when it forms a triple bottom, so prevent the third bottom from filling the gap support around 116300, which can serve as a new entry point;
ETH
Still oscillating within the 15-minute structure, continue to pay attention to the support at 4380. The deeper support has moved down to around 4250. Currently, it is recommended to remain cautious and observe.
BTC
Still oscillating, but over time, the lower moving support continues to decline. Although the daily 20-line at 116890 serves as support, be cautious of false breakdowns. Generally, the bottom at the 15-minute level is more stable when it forms a triple bottom, so prevent the third bottom from filling the gap support around 116300, which can serve as a new entry point;
ETH
Still oscillating within the 15-minute structure, continue to pay attention to the support at 4380. The deeper support has moved down to around 4250. Currently, it is recommended to remain cautious and observe.
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Some coin predicts that September will mark the start of the 'Altcoin Season',
providing three reasons, which I believe are all part of conventional analysis.
However, when I looked at the stablecoin data, I found that on the 14th, there was a 1.4B inflow of stablecoins into exchanges. This data might not seem significant on its own,
but it's the largest inflow in a month.
If the inflow continues next week, altcoins will basically get started next week.
providing three reasons, which I believe are all part of conventional analysis.
However, when I looked at the stablecoin data, I found that on the 14th, there was a 1.4B inflow of stablecoins into exchanges. This data might not seem significant on its own,
but it's the largest inflow in a month.
If the inflow continues next week, altcoins will basically get started next week.
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Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in September?
After all, many Fed officials believe that a rate cut in September would be too early. However, the Federal Reserve may have to continue cutting rates in September, as the current interest rate market shows that the probability of a rate cut is much higher than that of no cut;
The main reason for this is the significant decline in the job market previously, so the optimistic reasons for a rate cut may still be present, just overshadowed. A short-term volatile market may leave some friends feeling uncertain after reading this;
Is there a way to 100% predict the direction of Bitcoin in the near future?
There actually is! It is the fundamental logic of the ups and downs in the cryptocurrency market, the global money supply M2:
When M2 rises, Bitcoin will surge, and when M2 falls, Bitcoin will drop. The price of Bitcoin typically lags M2 by one to two months. Understanding this logic makes it easy to predict the future trends of Bitcoin;
After experiencing a six-month rising period, the global money supply has now started to slightly stagnate, even showing a slight decline, although the extent is not large. Therefore, from the perspective of global liquidity, the price of Bitcoin may continue to consolidate until the next round of liquidity injection brings about a new wave of upward momentum. Thus, the rise and fall of Bitcoin is not mysticism; it is linked to the global money supply;
Some retail investors guess daily about price movements, while professionals can comprehensively assess the current market situation through various data.
After all, many Fed officials believe that a rate cut in September would be too early. However, the Federal Reserve may have to continue cutting rates in September, as the current interest rate market shows that the probability of a rate cut is much higher than that of no cut;
The main reason for this is the significant decline in the job market previously, so the optimistic reasons for a rate cut may still be present, just overshadowed. A short-term volatile market may leave some friends feeling uncertain after reading this;
Is there a way to 100% predict the direction of Bitcoin in the near future?
There actually is! It is the fundamental logic of the ups and downs in the cryptocurrency market, the global money supply M2:
When M2 rises, Bitcoin will surge, and when M2 falls, Bitcoin will drop. The price of Bitcoin typically lags M2 by one to two months. Understanding this logic makes it easy to predict the future trends of Bitcoin;
After experiencing a six-month rising period, the global money supply has now started to slightly stagnate, even showing a slight decline, although the extent is not large. Therefore, from the perspective of global liquidity, the price of Bitcoin may continue to consolidate until the next round of liquidity injection brings about a new wave of upward momentum. Thus, the rise and fall of Bitcoin is not mysticism; it is linked to the global money supply;
Some retail investors guess daily about price movements, while professionals can comprehensively assess the current market situation through various data.
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The latest released inflation indicator PPI is explosive, both soaring by 1% compared to the previous value, jumping from a normal 2.6% to a high inflation 3.7%. Old Powell must have seen his blood pressure spike, and he might even consider raising interest rates;
What is even more concerning is that inflation may continue to soar next month, as this data released is for July, while Trump's aggressive tariffs started in August, so the next data might also increase, and the probability of this happening is not low.
Some might wonder, why was the CPI quite stable on Tuesday, but the PPI exploded on Thursday?
To clarify, PPI is the Producer Price Index, while CPI is the Consumer Price Index. Therefore, PPI is a leading indicator, while CPI is a lagging indicator. First, the production costs reflected in PPI rise, leading to an increase in commodity prices, which then transmits to the consumer side, resulting in a rise in CPI. Thus, PPI, as the upstream production side, is more sensitive, and its inflation will gradually transmit to the downstream consumer side CPI. Therefore, the rise in CPI in the coming months seems to be a high probability event.
What is even more concerning is that inflation may continue to soar next month, as this data released is for July, while Trump's aggressive tariffs started in August, so the next data might also increase, and the probability of this happening is not low.
Some might wonder, why was the CPI quite stable on Tuesday, but the PPI exploded on Thursday?
To clarify, PPI is the Producer Price Index, while CPI is the Consumer Price Index. Therefore, PPI is a leading indicator, while CPI is a lagging indicator. First, the production costs reflected in PPI rise, leading to an increase in commodity prices, which then transmits to the consumer side, resulting in a rise in CPI. Thus, PPI, as the upstream production side, is more sensitive, and its inflation will gradually transmit to the downstream consumer side CPI. Therefore, the rise in CPI in the coming months seems to be a high probability event.
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BTC and ETH Outlook on 8.16:
Most of the weekend was sideways,
BTC first saw a sideways movement on the 15-minute chart, pay attention to support around 116600 below, which could be a good entry point;
ETH is similar, but with a larger range, pay attention to around 4385 and 4350 below, these two points can also serve as entry points;
If the right side finishes without breaking below the previous low on the left side, it basically indicates a phase bottom.
Most of the weekend was sideways,
BTC first saw a sideways movement on the 15-minute chart, pay attention to support around 116600 below, which could be a good entry point;
ETH is similar, but with a larger range, pay attention to around 4385 and 4350 below, these two points can also serve as entry points;
If the right side finishes without breaking below the previous low on the left side, it basically indicates a phase bottom.
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ETH
Around 4400, is a support entry point that I personally see,
those who can enter may choose to do so, it's not a reversal but a rebound.
Around 4400, is a support entry point that I personally see,
those who can enter may choose to do so, it's not a reversal but a rebound.
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Review of today's ETH
The 4-hour double test of 4500 has arrived, congratulations to those who followed along, another gain to be had,
Currently still observing, it feels like there's a high probability it will still go down, no rush to leave.
The 4-hour double test of 4500 has arrived, congratulations to those who followed along, another gain to be had,
Currently still observing, it feels like there's a high probability it will still go down, no rush to leave.
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XRP
In the 4-hour chart, we can clearly see the important support level at 3.1, which was directly broken by a large bearish candle.
Although it was pulled back later, the break indicates a downward trend, and the probability of continued decline is relatively high.
Stay tuned to see if it can break down again later!
In the 4-hour chart, we can clearly see the important support level at 3.1, which was directly broken by a large bearish candle.
Although it was pulled back later, the break indicates a downward trend, and the probability of continued decline is relatively high.
Stay tuned to see if it can break down again later!
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