Morita_k

Unable to sleep, suddenly enlightened, updating a pinned message:
1. The trading market is a chaotic system (a term from logic), influenced by countless factors, so candlestick charts can only summarize past occurrences and cannot accurately predict the future. It's like humans cannot accurately predict the weather a week from now.
2. The emergence and digestion of market information will cause all factors to trend towards a single direction, so you should pay attention to periodic news and sudden news.
3. Because it is a chaotic system, theoretically your profits depend on mathematical probabilities, whether going long or short.
4. In essence, the probability here is actually the win rate and the profit-loss ratio.
5. Please pay attention to calculating the actual mathematical expectation of profits, for example, a win rate of 90% with a profit-loss ratio of 1:4. In reality, the mathematical expectation of profit is 1*0.9=0.9, and the mathematical expectation of loss is 4*0.1=0.4, so even if the unpopular approach of 'take profit and run, endure losses' is used, as long as the mathematical expectation calculation is reasonable, you can achieve stable profits.
6. So why do all the 'coaches' and 'financial bloggers' tell you that Martingale is doomed?
7. A. Because when you made a profit using 5x leverage, you unfortunately used 10x leverage when losing this time, the overall mathematical expectation will be negative, so try to maintain consistent leverage.
B. When your assets grow to 100k, a 40% drawdown means you lose more money, your resolve is shattered, emotions affect your win rate, and the overall mathematical expectation changes again.
C. Classic mathematical expectation requires a sufficiently large number of occurrences, which means you need a sufficiently long trading career. If you unfortunately fall to a very low asset level, do you have enough time to recover?
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Do not get tangled in their claims that the profit-loss ratio must be positive, do not disdain a 1% profit, beating fees, a more stable win rate, and reasonable mathematical expectations are the essence. (This does not mean you shouldn't use stop-losses; try using wider stop-losses.)
#悟道

This order tells us: Don't be foolish and engage in long-short hedging.

Set a mobile stop loss, can sleep well now, I don’t want to see this kind of floating resistance of 8000 a day anymore. To be honest, I am day trading all day long with 10x leverage and only made 10%. It’s garbage. Before going to bed last night, it had already climbed to 3000u, but this morning it crashed. Calculating based on 2800 in assets, 10% → 3080, I can at least withdraw 50u tomorrow. In the coming week, I need to start half a year of climbing mountains nationwide. Today’s resistance has made me doubt whether I really have the ability to trade while traveling, fuck$PEPE

$PEPE Dog House, you've been in control for half an hour, if you want to pull, hurry up. I have a stop loss space of 900u anyway, if I lose, I can sleep well.

Today there were countless opportunities to escape the peak, but I stubbornly brought the average price down from 886 to 874 in one day, with a fluctuation of 7000 yuan. I'm also quite frustrated.
Additionally, there's the issue of non-farm payrolls. From the non-farm data, it is clear that it is bearish for gold and bullish for US stocks. So what is the impact on the crypto space? Some say it is bearish for crypto because Bitcoin is digital gold, and its movement is similar to gold. Others say it is bullish for crypto because liquidity in the crypto space now comes from US stock ETFs; when US stocks rise, Bitcoin rises, and when Bitcoin rises, all major coins follow. 😓 It's really frustrating.
My view is the latter; the crypto space is no longer the same as it was 20 years ago. The biggest holders of cryptocurrency are all from the US stock pool.

I flipped the square. I found that many of the original gambling dogs from the spinach are now playing event contracts. They don't even know about the major economic data release at 8:30, just blindly saying that the platform is 'targeting' them, laughing to death $BTC

Is today's non-farm rebound so weak? Is it still necessary to wait for the US stock market to pull up in the middle of the night? $PEPE has completely diverged from the trend of $BTC today.

Emmmm，上涨半小时，下跌一整天

妈的，抗单，扛成煞笔，所以今晚非农大概率是利好，所以庄家在非农前疯狂压低价格吗

今晚八点半又有非农数据，估计又是一波腥风血雨

Considering the recent withdrawals, I have basically broken even, and I should have around 3000 when I wake up tomorrow. The crash on March 28 shattered my heart, and in about a month, I have gone from 400u to 3000u. I hope to be able to repay the ten million debt before my birthday this year. Amen.

Suddenly realized that the grid that was about to explode just now should have added margin, instead of adding positions in the regular contract after a stop loss...

At 8:20, I saw a big player analyzing tonight's #美国GDP数据即将公布 in the square. At 8:30, Jinshi data pushed the results. At the moment of the push, the market wasn't very volatile. For safety's sake, I canceled several long positions and kept a few at what I considered low price levels. It kept falling, falling, another day wasted.

I feel like I've been tortured to death by this damn thing today. The main problem is still because I was overly complacent before going to bed last night, so my position is particularly heavy, which made me afraid to add to my holdings during the decline. I've missed many opportunities to recover during the dips. I've been oscillating between 2500 → 1600 → 2400 for a week now. With this kind of range-bound fluctuation, when will it finally end?

Laughing to death, 3 days, $PEPE actually drew 4 doors, how it rose that day is how it fell back down, but every time it builds positions at the top, always thinking it will break through, the balance is jumping up and down, the heart is about to break.

Damn it, I heavily invested again, it was hard to climb back to 2300, but when I woke up this morning, it was down to 1600. I hadn't been asleep for long before it turned around and dropped again.

God knows what I went through last night

Recently, my mind has been in turmoil. I've come across too many videos related to trading strategies on Douyin, constantly bombarded with phrases about profit-loss ratios, not to mind the win rate, and strictly adhering to stop losses. However, my recent profits have instead been regressing step by step. Trades that used to be profitable are now losing trades.

What has been happening in the market recently? It's all like this up and down pin bar market $PEPE

You talk to him about law, he talks to you about politics, I suddenly realize that many people in the crypto world are very young.