Morita_k

Secrecy leads to success

Unable to sleep, suddenly enlightened, updating a pinned message:
1. The trading market is a chaotic system (a term from logic), influenced by countless factors, so candlestick charts can only summarize past occurrences and cannot accurately predict the future. It's like humans cannot accurately predict the weather a week from now.
2. The emergence and digestion of market information will cause all factors to trend towards a single direction, so you should pay attention to periodic news and sudden news.
3. Because it is a chaotic system, theoretically your profits depend on mathematical probabilities, whether going long or short.
4. In essence, the probability here is actually the win rate and the profit-loss ratio.
5. Please pay attention to calculating the actual mathematical expectation of profits, for example, a win rate of 90% with a profit-loss ratio of 1:4. In reality, the mathematical expectation of profit is 1*0.9=0.9, and the mathematical expectation of loss is 4*0.1=0.4, so even if the unpopular approach of 'take profit and run, endure losses' is used, as long as the mathematical expectation calculation is reasonable, you can achieve stable profits.
6. So why do all the 'coaches' and 'financial bloggers' tell you that Martingale is doomed?
7. A. Because when you made a profit using 5x leverage, you unfortunately used 10x leverage when losing this time, the overall mathematical expectation will be negative, so try to maintain consistent leverage.
B. When your assets grow to 100k, a 40% drawdown means you lose more money, your resolve is shattered, emotions affect your win rate, and the overall mathematical expectation changes again.
C. Classic mathematical expectation requires a sufficiently large number of occurrences, which means you need a sufficiently long trading career. If you unfortunately fall to a very low asset level, do you have enough time to recover?
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Do not get tangled in their claims that the profit-loss ratio must be positive, do not disdain a 1% profit, beating fees, a more stable win rate, and reasonable mathematical expectations are the essence. (This does not mean you shouldn't use stop-losses; try using wider stop-losses.)
#悟道

Break even didn't escape, it fell again like a dog

? Another pin inserted?

It’s another day of missing the rally and filling up the bag on the pullback, 😅

This month's mindset is in a dying struggle, it's too hard to get back up after wide stop loss.

Gave 6 chances to break even and close, but in the end still hit the stop loss, I am just cheap.

Laughing to death, then it unravels, and then it crashes again.

Damn it, I've been tricked again

Today's plot is that I got in the ride, but I only went in 1x...
I couldn't leverage it...
Mainly, I got scared.

I laughed to death, one moment of inattention, it exploded, only realized after opening the app that the background process was gone, and there was no notification.

Before going to the beach, everything was cleared up, but when I sat down to look, emmmm

I really can't handle the situation at all

Sure enough, in these past few days, as long as you are willing to hold the position, it can come back in half a day...

🌿

Another day of being deeply trapped

If you are a short-term trader, even intraday, or even scalping, what you should analyze is the trend momentum of this moment, order distribution, and other related issues, rather than the price. The numbers on the price have no meaning; they are just a base for calculating the percentage of rise and fall.
If you are a long-term trader, even in larger cycles, or even value investing, you should analyze supply and demand relationships, valuation systems, historical cycles rather than the occasional fluctuations and noise.

It really is, how it went up is how it will go down. This past week’s market reminds me of the sideways movement in the last week of April.

😓When I've cleared everything and want to rest well, he pulls it up again.

Starting from the 10th, this week has been a roller coaster, going from 160 to 319 in one day, on the 12th it fell from 369 back to 150, from the 13th to the 16th it was 50% every day, last night it finally returned to 530, last night pepe took a big dive, 1380 didn't leave, today it has been fluctuating around 200 all day.
I have already started to doubt my abilities 😭