泥奥
受市场的脉动，寻找模糊的正确
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#RWA is a top-down non-crypto native narrative, usually triggered by a policy or event. This morning, the tariffs were implemented, and although some voices in the market yesterday believed the negative impact had already been priced in, the actual implementation still led to a wail of despair. Is there a chance that Trump will continue to adopt the strategy of wanting 1 and then announcing 10, or could he take this opportunity to introduce a crypto tax payment discount policy? The several targets of #RWA , $ondo and $plume, are also part of the Binance voting for new coins, and it feels like we are about to enter the hitting zone, so let's start with a small position and see how it goes.
#币安投票上币
#币安投票上币
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The recent market has been consistently maintaining a hard mode; the best time to identify who is swimming naked is when the tide goes out.
Bittensor did not immediately reverse the trend after the release of dtao, and it has attracted a lot of criticism for dtao. Currently, the price of $TAO has reached a critical support level. The good news is that the stake in the subnet of $TAO has been in a net outflow state for the past month, and it has just returned to a net inflow state.
If the staking trend of dtao can be sustained, it indicates that the market is gradually recognizing the dtao mechanism, which also means that the circulation of $TAO can continue to maintain a deflationary state, providing good support for the price of $tao. If you are optimistic about the long-term development of Bittensor, now is a good time to enter.
Bittensor did not immediately reverse the trend after the release of dtao, and it has attracted a lot of criticism for dtao. Currently, the price of $TAO has reached a critical support level. The good news is that the stake in the subnet of $TAO has been in a net outflow state for the past month, and it has just returned to a net inflow state.
If the staking trend of dtao can be sustained, it indicates that the market is gradually recognizing the dtao mechanism, which also means that the circulation of $TAO can continue to maintain a deflationary state, providing good support for the price of $tao. If you are optimistic about the long-term development of Bittensor, now is a good time to enter.
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"Stablecoin" $ACT has depegged, after being stable for so long, it surprisingly faced a halving result. One can only say that the current version specifically punishes diamond hands; time is no longer a friend of the holder. Once the diamond hands are wiped out, a new recovery cycle will begin.
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The negative emotions of $MUBARAK have already reached a temporary bottom, who can bear the heavy responsibility of breaking the ceiling this time?
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Based on the previous Binance voting characteristics, let's predict the script for the next round. Both $ghibli will enter the voting pool, and BSC will win.
It should appear to be a legitimate win.
#币安投票上币
It should appear to be a legitimate win.
#币安投票上币
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The results of the Binance voting for new listings have come out. The previous announcement stated that 9 would be listed and 2 would be chosen, but in the end, 4 were listed. The rankings are as follows: #1 $BANANAS31 31 / #4 $BROCCOLI714 / #5 $MUBARAK / #7 $tut
What is the significance of doing community voting like this? At least half of the final results are from the top rankings, so in the next round, the community will feel that their efforts to win the vote are meaningful.
Now, among the top three, there is only 1, which basically means: Community, hurry up and perform, quickly increase the hype for my event, the results are predetermined, and the first place is just a symbolic token given to you as a labor fee.
#币安投票上币
What is the significance of doing community voting like this? At least half of the final results are from the top rankings, so in the next round, the community will feel that their efforts to win the vote are meaningful.
Now, among the top three, there is only 1, which basically means: Community, hurry up and perform, quickly increase the hype for my event, the results are predetermined, and the first place is just a symbolic token given to you as a labor fee.
#币安投票上币
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Taking a wild guess at the result of this power struggle among the Nine Sons
Firstly, Binance's voting for listing coins should respect the community's opinion, so the one ranked first, #bananas31 , is definitely going to be listed. The first point in the announcement distinguishes between application-type and meme-type, and since #bananas31 is a meme, I guess another non-meme type will be listed next, which is the one ranked third, #siren .
Unless there's a situation where Binance excludes certain coins due to actions not recognized by Binance, such as non-human voting, etc.
Considering there are too many uncertain factors to calculate the odds, let's not gamble too lightly for fun :)
Firstly, Binance's voting for listing coins should respect the community's opinion, so the one ranked first, #bananas31 , is definitely going to be listed. The first point in the announcement distinguishes between application-type and meme-type, and since #bananas31 is a meme, I guess another non-meme type will be listed next, which is the one ranked third, #siren .
Unless there's a situation where Binance excludes certain coins due to actions not recognized by Binance, such as non-human voting, etc.
Considering there are too many uncertain factors to calculate the odds, let's not gamble too lightly for fun :)
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Is there anyone who can help explain why the maximum trailing stop loss for contracts can only be set at 10%? A 10% can only withstand small cycle pullbacks. $PARTI plans to set it at 20% but cannot do so.
PARTIUSDT
20X
Long
Unrealized PNL (USDT)
+180.00%
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Last night before going to bed, I placed an order for $PARTI 0.3 but didn't get a response. This morning, I saw it basically stabilized at 0.34. The decision-making logic is that the product is good, the team is strong, and the fdv is appropriate. If the current market really needs a case to change the perception of VC coins, $PARTI is indeed a good script.
PARTIUSDT
20X
Long
Unrealized PNL (USDT)
+170.00%
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The product $PARTI is good and the mc is also suitable, just to play around.
PARTIUSDT
20X
Long
Unrealized PNL (USDT)
+115.00%
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With the mass adoption of stablecoins, there will definitely be a large number of stablecoin options to invest in value assets under the web2 logic. The value capture ability of tokens is an important indicator of whether an asset is valuable.
There are many good products but only governance function tokens, which in a sense are meme coins that contain value expectations. If one relies on the logic of value assets to invest in these coins, great care must be taken to avoid falling into value traps.
Recently, many tokens have announced buybacks (referring to the table organized by @AB Kuai Dong ). The buyback logic is a good screening method:
1. $SHELL $GPS , these types of buyback compensations generally only have a short-term impact and are not sustainable in the long term. Therefore, if trading around these types of buybacks, it is more of a short-term trading strategy based on expectation differences.
2. $DYDX $jup $aave, these types of buybacks based on protocol income are usually good value captures. However, it is necessary to specifically analyze the proportion of buybacks from protocol income relative to the token's market capitalization, while also considering the future trend of protocol income changes and the sustainability of buyback measures.
There are many good products but only governance function tokens, which in a sense are meme coins that contain value expectations. If one relies on the logic of value assets to invest in these coins, great care must be taken to avoid falling into value traps.
Recently, many tokens have announced buybacks (referring to the table organized by @AB Kuai Dong ). The buyback logic is a good screening method:
1. $SHELL $GPS , these types of buyback compensations generally only have a short-term impact and are not sustainable in the long term. Therefore, if trading around these types of buybacks, it is more of a short-term trading strategy based on expectation differences.
2. $DYDX $jup $aave, these types of buybacks based on protocol income are usually good value captures. However, it is necessary to specifically analyze the proportion of buybacks from protocol income relative to the token's market capitalization, while also considering the future trend of protocol income changes and the sustainability of buyback measures.
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The overall trend of $GPS is basically consistent with previous judgments, but the intensity is relatively weak. The coin price only rebounded by nearly 20% and quickly retreated.
Current situation:
1. Voting has currently reached 5th place.
2. A repurchase announcement was made last night and the burning address after repurchase was disclosed, but currently there are only a few coins from the community in the burning address.
3. Overall, the user group that previously held negative evaluations has not changed its judgment, and this will take a long time to forget, but it is almost impossible to repair unless these users can make money immediately and the price is driven up. As long as they miss out, they will complain even more severely.
Before Binance announces the final delisting results, the main variable is the strength of the repurchase and whether any influential figures will step forward to guide public opinion.
Current situation:
1. Voting has currently reached 5th place.
2. A repurchase announcement was made last night and the burning address after repurchase was disclosed, but currently there are only a few coins from the community in the burning address.
3. Overall, the user group that previously held negative evaluations has not changed its judgment, and this will take a long time to forget, but it is almost impossible to repair unless these users can make money immediately and the price is driven up. As long as they miss out, they will complain even more severely.
Before Binance announces the final delisting results, the main variable is the strength of the repurchase and whether any influential figures will step forward to guide public opinion.
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The negative emotions surrounding $GPS should be at a temporary bottom. Yesterday, the token voting was far ahead, but the announcement was interpreted as dismissive of the community. Furthermore, last night's AMA revealed many details and issues regarding team capability, which essentially led to a concentrated release of negative emotions. Currently, the KYB buyback account for $GPS has been set up, and there will always be buybacks before the voting ends, though the effort may be relatively weak. Additionally, the voting results can also be manipulated; as long as the ranking is pushed into the top three, even if it doesn’t come in first during the first round, it can still create a rebound in market sentiment, even if it cannot truly affect the token's outcome.
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The Hong Kong Web3 Carnival starts on April 6th, and the lineup is still quite strong. You can look for some small bets for fun.
First, let's look for Alchemy Pay ($ACH ):
1. PayFi track, aligns with the current theme.
2. Alchemy Pay has secured a Gold sponsorship seat (not high, but better than nothing), and the head of ecology is one of the speakers.
3. Ancient memories of Dragon 2 in the Hong Kong sector.
4. Last October, they mentioned they would develop Alchemy Chain; $ACH can handle gas, claiming to release a new roadmap in April, but actions have been slow, with a high probability of delays.
Risks:
1. The token's value capture ability is relatively weak; past actions indicate that the project team lacks strong motivation to drive the token price.
2. 10% of the remaining tokens are still locked, with 1.17% unlocking on April 7th.
First, let's look for Alchemy Pay ($ACH ):
1. PayFi track, aligns with the current theme.
2. Alchemy Pay has secured a Gold sponsorship seat (not high, but better than nothing), and the head of ecology is one of the speakers.
3. Ancient memories of Dragon 2 in the Hong Kong sector.
4. Last October, they mentioned they would develop Alchemy Chain; $ACH can handle gas, claiming to release a new roadmap in April, but actions have been slow, with a high probability of delays.
Risks:
1. The token's value capture ability is relatively weak; past actions indicate that the project team lacks strong motivation to drive the token price.
2. 10% of the remaining tokens are still locked, with 1.17% unlocking on April 7th.
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Recently, the BSC ecosystem has been quite active, and BSC's weekly trading volume has been a small green spot among a sea of red.
#mubarak $tst and other trending memes were launched by four.meme and supported by PancakeSwap's AMM pool, making a significant contribution to the growth of PancakeSwap's trading volume.
$CAKE , as PancakeSwap's token, has been in a state of total deflation for the past year and a half. As the proportion of the reward pool gradually decreases, the circulating supply has also stabilized at a relatively high proportion.
If the BSC ecosystem can continue to attract liquidity, the current $cake is similar to last year's $ray, driven by the sol pump & meme investment opportunity. However, aside from the risk of not being able to truly rise, if four becomes the meme entry point of the new BSC era, it may also face the risk of having to do AMM pump themselves. Nonetheless, at this stage, the priority is definitely to enlarge the overall pie, and this risk is relatively controllable.
#mubarak $tst and other trending memes were launched by four.meme and supported by PancakeSwap's AMM pool, making a significant contribution to the growth of PancakeSwap's trading volume.
$CAKE , as PancakeSwap's token, has been in a state of total deflation for the past year and a half. As the proportion of the reward pool gradually decreases, the circulating supply has also stabilized at a relatively high proportion.
If the BSC ecosystem can continue to attract liquidity, the current $cake is similar to last year's $ray, driven by the sol pump & meme investment opportunity. However, aside from the risk of not being able to truly rise, if four becomes the meme entry point of the new BSC era, it may also face the risk of having to do AMM pump themselves. Nonetheless, at this stage, the priority is definitely to enlarge the overall pie, and this risk is relatively controllable.
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Jupiter is still very strong. After the meme crash on Solana, the protocol revenue hasn't dropped much and has even increased compared to early January. The situation for pump and Solana is quite miserable.
The main source of Jupiter's revenue comes from perpetual contracts. In terms of the 7-day protocol revenue comparison, the valuation of $JUP is even more cost-effective than $hype. Moreover, Jupiter's business empire is vast, and they are willing to use protocol revenue for buybacks.
However, since the Jupiter ecosystem is built on Solana, people's expectations for Jupiter will consider the overall situation of Solana. Also, the memory of the previous conspiracy group's harsh actions will take time to fade. But that's how the expectation gap is formed. When there are signs of recovery in the Solana ecosystem, such as casinos coming back to life and enhanced expectations from ETF approvals, it will present a good entry opportunity.
The main source of Jupiter's revenue comes from perpetual contracts. In terms of the 7-day protocol revenue comparison, the valuation of $JUP is even more cost-effective than $hype. Moreover, Jupiter's business empire is vast, and they are willing to use protocol revenue for buybacks.
However, since the Jupiter ecosystem is built on Solana, people's expectations for Jupiter will consider the overall situation of Solana. Also, the memory of the previous conspiracy group's harsh actions will take time to fade. But that's how the expectation gap is formed. When there are signs of recovery in the Solana ecosystem, such as casinos coming back to life and enhanced expectations from ETF approvals, it will present a good entry opportunity.
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Preliminary research on $SOLV
1. BTCFi track, with BTC being adopted as a value store, the demand for yield is a natural extension. After the AI Agent/meme hype cooled down, this is currently one of the few tracks supported by actual value.
2. The team seems to be continuously working and has a vision. Recently, they collaborated with Lista on the BNB chain to allow staking BTC for BNB new listing profits and announced plans for BTC reserves.
3. The market has been relatively stable in recent weeks, with a market cap of only 62 million, suggesting a significant level of control.
4. TVL has not decreased much after the TGE for BTC-based, with two figures in Defillama: one at 2 billion as shown in the image below, and another, after removing some figures, at 800 million, corresponding to a market cap of 62 million and FDV of 380 million. Looking solely at the proportional valuation, it is not expensive.
5. The token empowerment is relatively weak; currently, protocol revenue has not been empowered to the token, and the 2 million protocol revenue shown in the image below for one year might not be complete.
Preliminary observations suggest it is worth continuous tracking. Setting aside the profit distribution during the TGE and community interests, the project itself is of high quality. However, theoretically, if the team takes all the protocol revenue, and then the token price stabilizes without increasing while waiting for continuous unlocking, the benefits for the team could still be considerable. Further observation of the driving force for price increases is needed.
1. BTCFi track, with BTC being adopted as a value store, the demand for yield is a natural extension. After the AI Agent/meme hype cooled down, this is currently one of the few tracks supported by actual value.
2. The team seems to be continuously working and has a vision. Recently, they collaborated with Lista on the BNB chain to allow staking BTC for BNB new listing profits and announced plans for BTC reserves.
3. The market has been relatively stable in recent weeks, with a market cap of only 62 million, suggesting a significant level of control.
4. TVL has not decreased much after the TGE for BTC-based, with two figures in Defillama: one at 2 billion as shown in the image below, and another, after removing some figures, at 800 million, corresponding to a market cap of 62 million and FDV of 380 million. Looking solely at the proportional valuation, it is not expensive.
5. The token empowerment is relatively weak; currently, protocol revenue has not been empowered to the token, and the 2 million protocol revenue shown in the image below for one year might not be complete.
Preliminary observations suggest it is worth continuous tracking. Setting aside the profit distribution during the TGE and community interests, the project itself is of high quality. However, theoretically, if the team takes all the protocol revenue, and then the token price stabilizes without increasing while waiting for continuous unlocking, the benefits for the team could still be considerable. Further observation of the driving force for price increases is needed.
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DTAO has been launched for nearly a month. From the trend of $TAO , it has not brought sufficient wealth effects. The relatively positive information is that the staking rate has ended its downward trend (the relative slope of the orange total amount and the blue staking amount), currently stabilizing at 72%. Additionally, a few days ago, YZi Labs, formerly Binance Labs, invested in the Bittensor ecological project TensorplexLabs, which has increased the visibility of Bittensor. If the staking rate remains stable and more Bittensor ecological projects enter the investment and public eye in the future, then when the market warms up or expectations are no longer high, the $TAO , facing the year-end halving and a host of AI ecological projects, should welcome a new wave of opportunities.
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Trump signed an executive order to establish a national reserve, but only collects and does not buy. In the short term, it is indeed not strong enough, but in the long term, it at least reduces the selling pressure by 200,000 units. This is considered a milestone for 25,743,790,637 mass adoption, and more and more countries and companies will follow suit. The peak retracement of this round of BTC should be much lower than in previous rounds, and there is no need to worry in the long term.
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After $SHELL TGE, his AIPP mall has turned into a ghost town, with a significant decrease in transaction volume and user activity of AI Agents, and there are almost no new users. I even wonder if Dune's data is incorrect.
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