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Cryptocurrency Market Dynamics: Resurgence and Restructuring

Recently, the cryptocurrency market has undergone significant changes. Google Trends data shows that in March 2025, the global search interest for Bitcoin rose to 34, a 26% increase from February, ending the downward trend since November 2024; Ethereum's interest also climbed to a yearly high of 19. Although current interest is not at the peak levels of a bull market, the trend of stopping the decline and rebounding is evident. Due to global instability and U.S. tariff policies, the view that "Bitcoin is the digital gold" has gained renewed attention, with the BTC to SPX ratio rising, and both institutional and retail investors' confidence in Bitcoin's safe-haven value is recovering, indicating the market may be brewing a new round of activity, with U.S. policy direction becoming a key variable.

Futures contract data shows that market funds are highly concentrated. CoinGlass data indicates that over 640,000 Bitcoins are staked in futures across the network, valued at approximately $54.4 billion. Large institutions prefer CME, holding 142,300 Bitcoins; Binance is the venue for retail and high-frequency players, with open interest exceeding 110,000 Bitcoins. The total open interest in the cryptocurrency market approaches $100 billion, with Bitcoin accounting for more than half. However, the market's leverage is extremely high; if Bitcoin breaks through $86,500, it will trigger a short squeeze pushing prices up, while falling below $83,000 will pressure longs, necessitating strict risk control in operations.

Since April, the funding rate for Bitcoin contracts has fluctuated upward, with bulls dominating the market. Although the rate briefly turned negative during periods such as April 7 and 9, with short positions active on Binance, it has mostly remained above 0%, with some days exceeding 0.02%, indicating a strong willingness among bulls to hold positions. The funding rate is closely linked to BTC prices, but high rates also increase the cost for bulls, and a market reversal could trigger a risk of liquidation.

The maturation of the cryptocurrency market is driving changes in Web3 venture capital. A Coinbase report indicates that industry funding is retreating, with the market capitalization of small cryptocurrencies dropping from $1.6 trillion at the end of 2024 to $950 billion by mid-April 2025, a 41% evaporation, while venture capital funding has shrunk by 50%-60% compared to 2021-2022. Global trade policies and fiscal tightening are suppressing investments, but the industry is shifting towards sustainable development. New projects are focusing more on practical applications, and investors are advised to avoid chasing small cryptocurrencies, evaluate projects from a long-term perspective, and pay attention to fields with real demand, such as AI + DeFi.

24-hour Cryptocurrency Hotspots

Economic Data and Market Reactions

- In March, U.S. retail sales increased by 1.4% month-on-month, marking the largest increase since January 2023, with significant growth in auto sales due to panic buying by consumers responding to tariff threats. However, this data, along with last week's inflation data, had little impact on the market.

Powell's Speech and Its Impact

- Powell stated that U.S. inflationary pressures are more persistent due to structural factors such as tariffs and trade policies, and that curbing inflation is the top priority. He inversely guided market expectations for interest rate cuts and clearly indicated that the Federal Reserve may not intervene to stabilize the market during periods of volatility. As a result, U.S. stock markets and cryptocurrency markets declined, while gold prices hit new highs.

Bitcoin Market Situation

- Bitcoin has strong support in the $81,300 - $83,500 range, with $87,000 serving as the liquidation point. If support at $83,000 is breached, there could be a rapid liquidation. Bitcoin has a high correlation with the global M2 money supply, and the U.S. Treasury has injected about $500 billion in liquidity since February, with some flowing into risk asset markets, driving up Bitcoin prices. Additionally, publicly listed companies have a strong willingness to expand their Bitcoin reserves, with a 16% increase in holdings in the first quarter.

U.S. Treasury Market Dynamics

- The U.S. Treasury market has experienced massive sell-offs, leading to a sharp increase in yields. Last week, the yield on the ten-year Treasury bond surged by 50 basis points, marking the largest weekly increase since 2001. Funds have not flowed into the Treasury market and may have shifted to safe-haven assets like gold or temporarily exited the market.

U.S. Economic Policy and International Situation

- The U.S. government is facing the issue of a collapsing Treasury market and needs to enhance the attractiveness of Treasury bonds to reduce financing costs. The U.S. has imposed tariffs on Chinese goods, escalating trade tensions, and China is believed to be reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasuries, intensifying the sell-off pressure in the U.S. Treasury market. Trump announced that certain Chinese technology products would no longer be subject to super-high tariffs, but a comprehensive removal of tariffs is unlikely, as the U.S. government needs tariff support for domestic tax structure adjustments and spending plans.

24-hour Cryptocurrency Hotspots

Economic Data and Market Reactions

- In March, U.S. retail sales increased by 1.4% month-on-month, marking the largest increase since January 2023, with significant growth in auto sales due to panic buying by consumers responding to tariff threats. However, this data, along with last week's inflation data, had little impact on the market.

Powell's Speech and Its Impact

- Powell stated that U.S. inflationary pressures are more persistent due to structural factors such as tariffs and trade policies, and that curbing inflation is the top priority. He inversely guided market expectations for interest rate cuts and clearly indicated that the Federal Reserve may not intervene to stabilize the market during periods of volatility. As a result, U.S. stock markets and cryptocurrency markets declined, while gold prices hit new highs.

Bitcoin Market Situation

- Bitcoin has strong support in the $81,300 - $83,500 range, with $87,000 serving as the liquidation point. If support at $83,000 is breached, there could be a rapid liquidation. Bitcoin has a high correlation with the global M2 money supply, and the U.S. Treasury has injected about $500 billion in liquidity since February, with some flowing into risk asset markets, driving up Bitcoin prices. Additionally, publicly listed companies have a strong willingness to expand their Bitcoin reserves, with a 16% increase in holdings in the first quarter.

U.S. Treasury Market Dynamics

- The U.S. Treasury market has experienced massive sell-offs, leading to a sharp increase in yields. Last week, the yield on the ten-year Treasury bond surged by 50 basis points, marking the largest weekly increase since 2001. Funds have not flowed into the Treasury market and may have shifted to safe-haven assets like gold or temporarily exited the market.

U.S. Economic Policy and International Situation

- The U.S. government is facing the issue of a collapsing Treasury market and needs to enhance the attractiveness of Treasury bonds to reduce financing costs. The U.S. has imposed tariffs on Chinese goods, escalating trade tensions, and China is believed to be reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasuries, intensifying the sell-off pressure in the U.S. Treasury market. Trump announced that certain Chinese technology products would no longer be subject to super-high tariffs, but a comprehensive removal of tariffs is unlikely, as the U.S. government needs tariff support for domestic tax structure adjustments and spending plans.