栗子

6.28 Cryptocurrency Big Events:

1. TRUMP Coin Large Withdrawal:
Trump's team withdrew $6.77 million worth of TRUMP coins and over $370,000 in USDC stablecoins from the fund pool.

2. Japan-US Trade Negotiations:
Japan and the United States are discussing tariff issues, mainly aiming to reduce the high tariffs the US imposes on Japanese cars.
July 9 is the deadline for negotiations, which may be postponed or moved forward.

3. Cryptocurrency ETF Boom:
Ethereum ETF saw a net inflow of $77.44 million in one day.
Bitcoin ETF was even more aggressive, with a net inflow of $500 million, marking 14 consecutive days of capital inflow.

4. Ripple Lawsuit Conclusion:
Ripple has withdrawn its appeal against the SEC and is preparing to comply with the court's ruling, potentially ending a 6-year lawsuit.

5. Trump Fumes:
Due to Canada imposing a digital tax on US tech companies, Trump has halted all trade negotiations with Canada and threatened to impose tariffs.
He praised cryptocurrencies for creating jobs, alleviating pressure on the dollar, and being less susceptible to downturns than traditional assets.
He also called on the Federal Reserve Chairman to cut interest rates, saying he would send "tariff bills" to several countries.

Recently, a Canadian listed company, Bitcoin Treasury Corporation (BTCT), has been making significant moves:

1. Raised nearly $100 million ($92 million), and immediately spent $31.5 million to buy 292.8 bitcoins*, which amounts to about $108,000 each, higher than the market price, indicating that they are genuinely optimistic.
2. Relisted on June 30 (Toronto Stock Exchange Venture, code BTCT), clearly indicating an intention to increase investment in Bitcoin.

What does this mean?
Institutions are no longer hesitating and are starting to invest real money in Bitcoin, rather than just making empty statements.
Large capital entering the market is often a signal for a market reversal—just like in 2020 when MicroStrategy made substantial purchases, leading to a Bitcoin bull market.

A bull market is not created by mere “talk,” but is built through continuous large purchases. Now that institutions are already taking action, what ordinary people should focus on is “what they are buying,” rather than “what they are saying.”

Recently, Chuanzi has spoken out again on trade issues!

A new tariff policy is about to be announced, and the United States is busy drafting a new trade agreement. Next week, countries will receive tariff notifications!

At the same time, he doesn't forget to criticize the Federal Reserve, specifically naming Chairman Powell, directly calling for interest rate cuts as the way to go, complaining that high interest rates are holding back progress!
#降息 #关税

The current situation in the cryptocurrency market is as follows:

Bitcoin is like a tough nut; when it rises, it leads the charge, but other altcoins not only fail to keep up but also get drained of value; when it falls, Bitcoin remains relatively stable, but altcoins plummet even more. Ethereum has recently seen a significant influx of investment due to ETF funds buying in large quantities (for instance, a company spent 460 million USD to stock up), and it should have surged, but the Ethereum foundation is not doing its part, combined with early investors continuously selling off, which has kept the price stuck around 2500 USD.

Currently, the altcoin market is lethargic, with a daily decline; this situation may persist for a while. Many people are being pushed to consider leveraged contracts, but please avoid it! Recently, the conflicts in the Middle East have caused billions in liquidations, and contracts are no different from gambling; in the end, you will definitely lose all your capital.

Additionally, there’s a big piece of news: the company issuing USDT, Tether (the one that prints stablecoins), made 13 billion USD in profit last year, and now their CEO has declared they want to become "the world's largest Bitcoin miner." They not only bought 100,000 Bitcoins but also invested 2 billion USD in building a mining facility in South America, using clean energy for mining. The most crucial part is that they will absolutely not sell the Bitcoins they mine! This means the circulating supply of Bitcoins in the market will decrease, potentially driving the price higher.

Lastly, there’s a potential positive factor: if Trump wins the U.S. election, he might replace the Federal Reserve chairman with someone supportive of cryptocurrency. The whole world is currently waiting for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates and inject liquidity; if that happens, the cryptocurrency market may welcome a new bull run.

Powell's indecision on interest rate cuts while managing the Federal Reserve has greatly displeased Trump. It is reported that Trump may announce a new candidate as early as September or October, or even earlier in the summer. Candidates include Kevin Warsh, Hassett, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, former World Bank President Malpass, and current Federal Reserve Governor Waller.

This move has far-reaching implications, akin to throwing a large bomb into the market. Announcing it so far in advance clearly interferes with market expectations, leading to speculation about the policy positions of the new candidates, which in turn causes turbulence in the financial markets.

Trump's move is clearly a political maneuver aimed at intimidating the market and pressuring the Federal Reserve to comply in order to stimulate the economy.

I have never been able to grab this threshold behind, my brothers at home have several G networks, has anyone managed to grab it
#币安Alpha上新

Three Key Points from Powell's Speech:

1. Tariff Policy Delays Rate Cut Decision
The Federal Reserve has put rate cuts on the agenda, but the recently implemented tariff policy has brought economic uncertainty. Powell clearly stated that without the sudden emergence of these trade barriers, rate cuts might have already been in place. The current cautious stance on policy directly stems from the need to assess the impact of tariffs.

2. Divergent Attitude on Rate Cut Timeline
Regarding the recent (July) interest rate adjustment window, the Federal Reserve has shown a noticeably cautious stance. This restraint mainly arises from the need for more economic data to support decisions. However, it is noteworthy that Powell exhibits a more open attitude towards the possibility of rate cuts in the future (September), suggesting a potential turning point in policy by the end of the third quarter.

3. Economic Fundamentals Support Current Policy
The speech particularly emphasized the strong resilience shown by the U.S. economy: the job market continues to maintain a stable situation, and the unemployment rate remains at historically low levels. This healthy labor market condition allows the Federal Reserve not to stimulate employment through rate cuts, providing fundamental support for maintaining the current interest rate policy. The current economic environment enables the central bank to maintain policy stability and observe the actual effects of tariff policies on inflation and economic growth.

Important developments in the cryptocurrency and macroeconomic sectors on June 24:
1. Metaplanet makes a large investment in Bitcoin
Japanese company Metaplanet plans to inject $5 billion into its U.S. subsidiary for Bitcoin operations, aiming to hold 210,000 BTC by the end of 2027, demonstrating institutional confidence in BTC's long-term prospects.

2. Trump criticizes Federal Reserve policy
Trump openly criticizes Federal Reserve Chairman Powell for refusing to cut interest rates, stating that Europe has cut rates 10 times while the U.S. has not at all, believing a 2-3 percentage point cut could save the U.S. $800 billion annually.

3. Circle's stock price soars
Stablecoin issuer Circle's stock price surged 749% since its IPO, with a market capitalization reaching $63.89 billion, surpassing the circulating market value of USDC ($61.675 billion) for the first time, reflecting market recognition of its business model.

4. Active trading in the crypto market
DEX spot weekly trading volume reached $97.86 billion (+1.88%), and perpetual contracts hit $103.37 billion (+8.44%).
Binance Alpha's trading volume continues to decline, with $520 million on June 23.

5. Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations
CME data shows a mere 20.7% probability of a rate cut in July, but Federal Reserve official Goolsbee hinted that rates should continue to be cut if trade policy impacts diminish.

6. Bitcoin ETF continues to attract capital
The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $388.73 million in a single day, indicating continued institutional funding.

7. MicroStrategy increases BTC holdings
MicroStrategy purchased an additional 245 BTC through financing (average price $105,856), bringing its total holdings to 592,300 BTC, nearing the milestone of 600,000 BTC.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Israel has agreed to the ceasefire plan proposed by Trump regarding Iran.

U.S. Vice President Vance made a significant statement in an interview: "We are not engaged in a full-scale war with Iran; our goal is—Iran's nuclear program!" It is reported that B-2 bombers have precisely targeted Iran's nuclear facilities, and President Trump personally announced the remarkable results!

Vance emphasized that this action has significantly delayed Iran's nuclear progress, pushing Iran further away from its nuclear weapon dreams for many more years! He pointed out that Iran's negotiations lack sincerity, forcing the U.S. to take decisive measures.

It seems that on the international political stage, every step is laden with intrigue! We will continue to pay attention and bring you more in-depth interpretations!

#万斯发声 #伊朗核计划

Important Events Next Week (June 24-28):

Monday:
Federal Reserve official Bowman discusses monetary policy and banking issues.
- The U.S. imposes a 50% tariff on certain steel appliances.

Tuesday:
Federal Reserve's Harker discusses monetary policy.
- Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reports on semiannual monetary policy to Congress (House of Representatives).
The Summer Davos Forum opens (lasting until the 26th).
NATO leaders meeting (24-25), Trump will attend.

Wednesday:
Powell reports on monetary policy to Congress again.

Thursday:
The U.S. announces the number of initial unemployment claims from last week.
The final value of U.S. GDP for the first quarter and final personal consumption data.

Friday (Key Data Day):
U.S. core PCE price index for May (a key inflation indicator monitored by the Federal Reserve).
U.S. personal consumption expenditures and consumer confidence data for May.
Results of a survey on public expectations for inflation over the next year.

Recently, Binance had a major update, surprisingly adding features for emergency contacts and heirs, which is really heartwarming! As veterans in the crypto space, we often discuss lofty concepts like on-chain transparency, private key control, and decentralized freedom, but we often overlook a very practical issue: what happens to our on-chain assets once we leave this world?

Brother Da @CZ 🔶 BNB 's recent actions are truly both technical and humane! Technology can be very cool, but ownership and handover are the matters that concern each of us!

Let's discuss a few thought-provoking points:

1️⃣ The 'immutability' of crypto assets is indeed great, but it also means that once the private key is lost, the assets may forever sleep in the depths of the blockchain. This is like the 'island paradox' of the crypto world; your freedom may ultimately turn into isolation.

2️⃣ Compared to pure on-chain solutions, CeFi platforms are more likely to promote the standardization of 'crypto wills'. By setting up emergency contacts, asset distribution plans, identity verification processes, and aligning with local laws, this 'technology + law' approach is more pragmatic and executable!

3️⃣ Minors should also have the right to be 'inherited'. Providing them with an on-chain account that is 'receivable but not tradable' respects family wealth and serves as a starting point for financial education. Imagine children of the future starting their exploration of the Web3 world with the first crypto assets left behind by their parents—how interesting that would be!

Although this topic may feel a bit 'early' and 'heavy', we really should face it. Don't wait for an accident to happen and then regret not preparing earlier!

#币安升级 #加密遗嘱

The Federal Reserve announced in the early hours of June 19 that the federal funds rate remains stable at the 4.25%-4.0% range, which meets everyone's expectations!

At the press conference, Powell was extremely cautious. He said that monetary policy is very flexible, but a rate cut? That will have to wait until inflation really comes down!

It is worth noting that commodity inflation has recently rebounded a bit, and it may rise again in the summer! Tariff policies are also a big variable, which is quite troublesome!

Although the Federal Reserve may cut rates by 50 basis points by the end of 2025, Powell said, "Don't rush, let the data speak!"

At this meeting, the Federal Reserve also adjusted its economic forecast: GDP growth expectations were lowered to 1.4%, while core PCE inflation expectations were raised to 3.1%!

The job market is generally stable, but the deadlock of "low hiring, low layoffs" also needs to be noted!

The Binance Alpha platform has recently experienced a massive withdrawal of users, with data showing a sharp decline. According to Dune Analytics monitoring, the number of active trading users on the platform evaporated by 16% in just 72 hours (from 233,000 down to 195,000), while the latest data shows that the number of real trading users has plummeted by 70% to the threshold of 70,000. This phenomenon is clearly linked to the flash crash events of tokens like $ZKJ/$KOGE, reflecting a severe blow to market confidence.

Trump's tough stance on Iran hides three potential explosion points in the cryptocurrency market:

1. Iran's Cryptocurrency Breakthrough: The country has successfully tested a cryptocurrency payment system. If it fully opens up oil cryptocurrency settlement, BTC and USDT may directly replace the dollar for settlement, triggering a surge in global trade-level demand;

2. Chain Reaction of Interest Rate Cuts: A drop in oil prices will accelerate the decline in inflation → The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in June greatly increases, institutional funds are entering the market in large quantities through spot ETFs, pushing ETH/BTC trading volume to break historical peaks;

3. Dual Game Opportunity: A breakdown in negotiations will trigger a geopolitical risk aversion trend, boosting BTC to challenge $100,000. If an agreement is reached, gold funds may redirect to the cryptocurrency market, and Trump-themed MEME coins (like TRUMP coin) may become the focus of speculative trading, with intraday volatility potentially exceeding 50%!

Core Observation Indicators: Iran's blockchain trading data + Federal Reserve interest rate decisions + Progress in US-Iran negotiations — these three will form the key triangle for market ignition!

Trump denies having engaged in any form of peace dialogue with Iran and states that Iran should accept the existing proposal for an agreement. He emphasized that if the Iranian side is interested in negotiations, they know how to contact him. Meanwhile, the U.S. and Israel have differences in their assessments of Iran's nuclear progress: the U.S. intelligence community believes that Iran still needs several years to develop nuclear weapons, while the Israeli side assesses that it has the capability to "break through within days."

On June 17th, Beijing time, Twitter (now known as X platform) once again launched a large-scale ban on accounts related to the cryptocurrency industry, including the popular meme coin platform Pump.fun and its founder's account, as well as dozens of crypto KOLs and project accounts such as GMGN ecosystem and Bloom Trading team. This is another wave of account bans following the one on June 12th.

Tron is preparing to achieve a reverse merger by merging with SRM Entertainment, a publicly listed company. This transaction is being managed by an investment bank, Dominari Securities, which has ties to Donald Trump's son.

The new company will emulate the strategy of MicroStrategy (a company known for hoarding Bitcoin) by buying and holding a large amount of $TRX tokens. Eric Trump may hold a position in the new company, which may be named Tron Inc. Tron plans to inject $210 million worth of TRX into the new company.

This move is related to Trump's support for cryptocurrencies, which gained more popularity after he became president. However, Tron was previously sued by the SEC for selling unregistered securities and market manipulation. But after Trump indicated he would relax cryptocurrency regulations in February, the SEC and Tron founder Justin Sun began talks for a settlement.