李铁锤

Current status of the cryptocurrency B industry

Total market value: 2 trillion

Btc+Eth: 1.4 trillion (Btc=1.12 trillion Eth=0.284 trillion)

Stable B: 0.17 trillion

Other altcoins: 0.43 trillion

Of which Btc+Eth accounts for 70%, stable B 8.5%, and other altcoins: 21.5%

Before the last bull market, the total market value of Btc was about 270 billion, 72 billion, and the rest of the altcoins were 140 billion

Compared with the last bull market, Btc increased by 4.1 times, Eth increased by 3.9 times, and the rest of the altcoins increased by 3 times.

In this way, after 4 years of bull-bear cycles, Ethereum did not outperform Bitcoin B, and the altcoins did not outperform Ethereum. In addition, Bitcoin B and Ethereum both increased by about 4 times on average, 4 times in 4 years, but the altcoins seemed to have collapsed, and many people suffered very, very, very serious losses. The reason is that although the total market value of the altcoins increased by 3 times, the number increased by more than 30 times. Therefore, many altcoins have actually been falling for a long time, especially in the past six months, many altcoins have fallen by more than 80-90%, and many mainstream altcoins have also fallen by 60-80%.

This brings us back to another topic, that is, the market value share of Btc+Eth is still 70%. In the past 6 years, the total market value of Bitcoin B+Eth has basically accounted for 70% or even higher in the entire industry. Therefore, except for the specific time window of the main bull market or the outbreak of some new sectors, the proportion of Btc+Eth in any crypto holding at any time must be 70%, or even more than 80-90%, for investment to be considered safe, otherwise it is easy to have systemic risks.

Many people feel desperate about the current market and see no hope of making money. However, in the past history, whenever 90% of people collapsed and despaired and left the market without caring, the market was quietly brewing. Intuitively, the market should not be far away. Now to the end of the year, we should pay more attention to market dynamics. There are new opportunities and outbreak points. We must participate as early as possible and exit in time. If we enter the market late, it is often difficult to exit.
#美国8月非农就业人数不及预期 #小非农增幅创3年多新低 #BTC走势分析 #美联储何时降息？ #新币挖矿DOGS

The boss said, "A good investor has four stages:
1. Project and track research ability;
2. Close deal ability;
3. Establish industry understanding, personal connections, information channels, systematic thinking about industry politics and economics, and the ability to predict new tracks;
4. Possess influence and be able to leverage investment and post-investment empowerment.
I think you will be very strong in the future, but there is no one or two equals zero, I will teach you one or two."

#美联储何时降息？ #币安Web3钱包 #新币挖矿TON #WBTC #TON

8.18 Morning Report:

1. $BTC Weekend market, continued to rise to around 60,000;

2. $ETH continues to find ways to build an ecosystem,#memecoinreturns to the main network;

3. $SOL drags its feet, almost a week of immersion;

4. Optimism Foundation plans to hard fork, disabling permissionless fraud proofs after security audit;

5. CME Fed Watch: The probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in September has dropped to 25%

Goldman Sachs: The Fed will decide to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in three consecutive meetings in September, November and December

Market news: Fed Chairman Powell may make hawkish remarks at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting

Federal Reserve officials will speak intensively next week and will release the minutes of the monetary policy meeting on Thursday;

Market news: Fed Chairman Powell and CEOs of large US banks A closed-door meeting was held

6. BlackRock's ETF has exceeded Grayscale's total assets, making BlackRock the new leader in the cryptocurrency fund field

7. SEC accuses NovaTech's founder of a $650 million cryptocurrency Ponzi scheme;

8. Data: Uniswap is the largest ETH destruction application in the first half of this year, destroying a total of about 72,000 ETH

9. Coinbase: Institutional holdings of Bitcoin ETFs have increased, and are expected to continue to increase

10. @CatizenAI meet TON Japan event will be held in Tokyo, Japan on August 29;

11. Data: The number of new accounts on the Tron network exceeded 210,000 in the past 24 hours

12. @BananaGunBot Treasury transferred 75,000 $BANANA to Galaxy 5 hours ago and then transferred 25,000 to Binance

13. Yesterday @binance's altcoin market was very good, $RARE $SYN $BANANA The rise is huge, and they are all examples of eating and taking. Today, I saw that the performance of the copycat is also good. Be cautious not to get off the train on the weekend.

The#memecoinon the chain has returned to #Ethereum. Overall, #solana's#memecoinseems to be in a slump. I don't know what it will take to ignite them.

The topic has been brought to the opposition between women and men. I don't know why it is still the same after claiming to be a progressive circle. Mutual respect is a basic operation. In short, mothers must have it, and sisters and daughters may have it. We can't let the entire female population bear it because of the operation of some people.

#新币挖矿TON #TON #加密市场反弹 #美国CPI数据连续第4个月回落 #美联储何时降息？ $BTC

For those who missed the chance to buy the plunge on Monday, I am giving you a buy signal now. I think there is a chance of seeing a false breakout towards 55-56k pin in the next few days. If this happens, I will enter the market.
Support for $btc remains strong at the moment and nothing has changed since yesterday.

Buy in bear market, sell in bull market
Large cycle operation
That is, buy at 16k and sell at 100k or higher. If you missed the chance to buy at 16k, there is still 2x room from now to 100k.

Rate cuts are already priced in, the maximum pain in the stock market may be 5-10%, and the crypto market may be 10-20%, but it will be digested quickly. This is a good opportunity to buy more when the market allows. This is for September forecast. I expect a soft landing. Personally, I don't think there will be a big crash scenario.

#新币挖矿TON #美国CPI数据连续第4个月回落 #美国7月PPI低于预期 #TON #美联储何时降息？

From the beginning of the year to now, the difficulty of hell is as follows:

1. Level 2 difficulty: Bitcoin and E returned to the position at the beginning of the year, and the decline of the copycat each time exceeded that of Bitcoin/E, and after the market came back, the copycat did not come back;

2. Difficult to make money: various witch checks, L0, zks reversed, far less than expected;

3. Pledge type: the principal fell sharply, no big money;

4. NFT type: loss of liquidity, the leader fell sharply;

5. Meme type: on-chain PVP, those who entered late stood guard at high positions, and those who entered early needed to run fast;

6. Chain games: almost faded out of sight, almost no money-making effect, the potential project bigtime generation B fell 90% from the high point;

7. Inscriptions/Runes: Most of them returned to zero, and lost liquidity at the same time;

8. Bitcoin ecology: airdrop generation B fell sharply, and many NFTs in the ecology fell by 80%;

9. New listing: The latest return is even lower than 1%, with a principal of $20,000 earning $200;

...... Who is still making money? So far this year, the difficulty is too high. The bull market has returned N times and the bull market has gone N times... There are many methodologies in this round. Whether it is the primary or secondary market, the emergence of methodology is precisely the turning point when the track begins to become volatile and moves towards the red ocean.

#加密市场反弹 #美联储何时降息？ #Ronin跨链桥安全漏洞 #JumpTrading转移资产 #美国7月非农就业增长放缓 $BTC

The core theory of the "Sam Rule" is that when the three-month average of the unemployment rate is 0.5 percentage points higher than the 12-month low, it usually means that the economy is already in recession.

#美联储何时降息？ #比特币大会 #Babylon主网将上线 #美国以太坊现货ETF开始交易 #拜登退选

Why is a war between Iran and Israel bad for BTC?

There are many reasons why geopolitical conflicts such as Iran can have an impact on cryptocurrency markets such as Bitcoin (BTC). Here are some of the factors that may cause a war in Iran to be bad for BTC:

Increased market uncertainty:
Wars and geopolitical tensions generally increase market uncertainty and volatility. Investors generally tend to seek safety when uncertainty increases, withdrawing funds from high-risk assets (such as cryptocurrencies) and moving them into traditional safe-haven assets such as gold or the US dollar.

Global economic impact:
War can have a negative impact on the global economy, including trade disruptions, supply chain obstructions, and rising energy prices. These economic pressures may lead to a general increase in risk aversion in the market and a decrease in investor demand for high-risk investment tools, which will have a negative impact on BTC prices.

Risk aversion sentiment:
During conflicts and wars, investors tend to avoid risky assets, and cryptocurrencies are generally regarded as high-risk assets due to their high price volatility. Therefore, wars can cause investors to sell Bitcoin to reduce their risk exposure.

Increased regulatory pressure:
Wars may trigger governments to take stricter financial regulatory measures to prevent funds from flowing out of war zones through cryptocurrencies or being used to finance illegal activities. This regulatory pressure can have a dampening effect on the cryptocurrency market.

Liquidity issues:
Geopolitical conflicts may cause financial markets and exchanges in certain regions to close or operate at a restricted level, which can affect the liquidity of the cryptocurrency market. This liquidity crunch can increase market volatility and negatively impact BTC prices.

Overall, the negative impact of geopolitical conflicts such as Iran on the Bitcoin market stems mainly from investors’ risk aversion, increased market uncertainty, and potential regulatory pressure. Nonetheless, the cryptocurrency market’s response may also vary depending on the specific situation and other market dynamics.
#美联储何时降息？ #美国7月非农就业增长放缓 #伊朗 #美国大选如何影响加密产业？ #美国以太坊现货ETF开始交易 $BTC

$ETH $BNB

The U.S. unemployment rate in July was 4.3%, the highest since October 2021, which is good for the cryptocurrency circle
The seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the U.S. in July were 114,000, lower than the expected 175,000, which is good for the cryptocurrency circle
There are more unemployed people and the economy is declining, so the Fed will cut interest rates in advance
It is conducive to a rate cut in September
BTC has been hit down after 3 consecutive spikes, why?
The rate cut is good, but it cannot stop the two short-term negatives:
(1) The major conflict between Israel and Iran
(2) The release of Mt. Gox tokens
#美联储何时降息？ #美国以太坊现货ETF开始交易 #美国大选如何影响加密产业？ #币安HODLer空投BANANA #比特币大会 $BTC $ETH $BNB

How to grow big quickly with small capital?

Although I have always advocated taking a long-term attitude to slowly compound interest positions, how to quickly grow with small funds is what most people in this market think about. If we are only discussing this technical issue, which method is most likely to be achieved?

One of the most important things is to find the main Shenglang. What is the main Shenglang? Last year, ordi increased four times in a week, wld increased 6 times in a week, and pepe increased 7 times in a week. This is the main rising wave. The most notable feature of the main rising wave is its continuity. Every day is a big positive line, and the floating profit grows rapidly every day. This level of profitability is far beyond what the band can compare with. Because of the path dependence problem, a certain In this sense, it is easier for holder than trader to achieve the result of getting rich in a short time.

The second problem is survival. It can be said that 80% of the market is concentrated in 5% of the time, but most participants simply do not have the patience to wait for those 5% of the time, and lose most of their principal before the market starts, or when the market comes. I like to pursue the ultimate operation and keep playing. Looking back, I found that I could not have made much more than if I had held the position open at the beginning. So lower the leverage and hold the position.

The third problem is holding orders. Not many people can hold orders, and 80% of the time they are manipulated by the market and cannot hold orders. He repeatedly emphasized that he could not form a pattern, and in the end basically sold at the market starting point. The most basic principle of holding orders is position management.
#美国政府转移BTC #比特币大会 #超级央行周 #美联储何时降息？ #美国大选如何影响加密产业？ $BTC $ETH $SOL

Highlights from Trump's speech at the Bitcoin Conference:
1. Fire Gary Gensler:
Trump promised to fire current Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Gary Gensler on his first day in office.
2. Establish a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve
He plans to establish a government Bitcoin reserve to promote the United States as a global cryptocurrency center.
3. Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Policy
Trump has proposed a series of policies and plans to promote the United States as a global cryptocurrency center, including the appointment of a cryptocurrency committee.
4. America First
Trump emphasized the concept of "America First", pointing out that if the United States does not lead the development of cryptocurrency and Bitcoin, other countries (such as China) will take the lead.
5. Energy Policy
To support the demand for artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency, Trump promised to significantly increase electricity production, including the use of fossil fuels and nuclear energy.
6. Cryptocurrency Donations
Trump proudly became the first major party candidate in American history to accept Bitcoin and cryptocurrency donations, and mentioned that since the announcement on May 21, $2.5 million has been raised, a large part of which is Bitcoin and cryptocurrency.
7. Criticism of the current government
Trump slammed the current government's suppression of cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin, calling it an "unprecedented war" and accusing them of hindering the development of cryptocurrencies.

Interesting points:
1. Bitcoin analogy
Trump compared the rise of Bitcoin to the steel industry 100 years ago, believing that Bitcoin is still in its infancy but has become the world's ninth most valuable asset.
2. Praise for the Bitcoin community
Trump admired the achievements of the Bitcoin community and called it a "miracle of cooperation and human achievement."
Through these points and interesting content, it can be seen that Trump not only demonstrated his support for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in his speech, but also enhanced the persuasiveness and interest of the speech through various analogies and personal stories.
#比特币大会 #美联储何时降息？ #美国大选如何影响加密产业？ #MtGox钱包动态 $BTC

Highlights of Trump’s 2024 Bitcoin Conference Speech

❯ Stop the US government from selling the 200,000 seized Bitcoins;
❯ Become the core of a strategic national Bitcoin reserve;
❯ The US will become the crypto capital of the planet and the world’s superpower;
❯ Bitcoin will be dominated and mined, minted, and manufactured in the US;
❯ Fire Gary Gensler and appoint a new SEC Chairman on his first day in office;
❯ Create a Presidential Advisory Council on Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies;
❯ Bitcoin is gold and may exceed the market value of gold;
❯ Bitcoin will go to the moon;
❯ Bitcoin is not a threat to the US dollar;
❯ Bitcoin is free, sovereign, and not controlled by national governments;
❯ There will never be a CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency) during his inauguration;
❯ Guarantee a sentence commutation for Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht; #比特币大会 #美国PCE通胀放缓 #美联储何时降息？ #美国大选如何影响加密产业？ #山寨季何时到来？

The worldview of some young people:

Working to pay off mortgage: It is impossible to work, and it is impossible to work to pay off mortgage in this life.

Working and investing in encryption: Work hard for your dreams, come on

#比特币大会 #美联储何时降息？ #拜登退选 #币安HODLer空投BANANA #美国大选如何影响加密产业？

Let's talk about my views on the market

1. The market of copycats has not come yet. Now it is just a rebound from the previous decline

2. At this stage, the winning rate is more important than the profit and loss ratio. Try to expand the stop loss space and reduce the leverage multiple. Don't think that you earn less. When the main rising wave comes, it will be very fast. The most important thing is not to reduce your principal

3. Personally, I think at this stage, see if you can place an order to connect the needle. If you connect it, it is the stage bottom

4. Don't let yourself be too emotional, stay calm
#以太坊ETF批准预期 #币安7周年 #山寨季何时到来？ #美联储何时降息？ #币安HODLer空投BANANA

No matter how many things you want to do, you only have 24 hours.

Excluding eating, sleeping and resting, where you spend your time is where the results come from.

If you want to be a gambler, spend all your time on watching the chain.

If you want to join a conspiracy group, build your influence and establish connections with different circles.

If you want to play smart money, just review the wallet address of Dajin every day and accumulate your own library.

If you are unknown, concentrate on practicing swordsmanship.

It is better to retreat and weave a net than to envy the fish by the abyss.

See you at the top.

#以太坊ETF批准预期 #美国大选如何影响加密产业？ #美联储何时降息？ #山寨季何时到来？ #美国6月CPI大幅降温

I never read other people's analysis, and no one's comments can affect my investment strategy, because I find that many people's comments are the same as if they didn't say anything.

"Open a position when it falls to xx price, and stop profit at xx if it breaks through xx price, and stop loss at xx if it doesn't break through."

Also, if you see that the popularity is high and others are shouting, you will follow the popularity and shout, and add a sentence that it is not an investment advice, don't follow it.

Why do you post it if it is not an investment advice?

#山寨季何时到来？ #以太坊ETF批准预期 #美国大选如何影响加密产业？ #美联储何时降息？ #币安7周年

Why can't ordinary leeks make money? The core principle is that they are too good at operating.
Every day, they want to operate to make money.
Trading is actually mostly waiting.
Attack when the market is good!
There was no market for local dogs some time ago, and PvP was done every day.
Basically, as long as you start operating in the past two days, you will get good returns.
When the market comes, do it boldly.
When the market is not good, you should control your hands and take a rest.
#美联储何时降息？ #美国大选如何影响加密产业？ #币安合约锦标赛 #币安7周年 #Mt.Gox将启动偿还计划

The identity of the gunman who shot Trump has been confirmed:
The gunman is a professional cryptocurrency trader. He had opened a short position in#btccontracts at home before the attack, hoping to make a profit by assassinating Trump and causing Bitcoin to fall. After he was shot, several liquidation text messages from Binance were found on the gunman's mobile phone.
#BTC下跌分析 #币安合约锦标赛 #美国大选如何影响加密产业？ #币安7周年

The bottom in my mind is basically at the beginning of 4
VcB has been questioned the most in this round of bull market. First, the market value is too high, with a valuation of billions of US dollars. Once unlocked, the market will be smashed and retail investors will not have a chance.
Second, the narrative is exhausted and there is no attractive genre.
Third, 90% of most project parties are holding the mentality of cutting leeks in the bull market, and a few are deeply engaged in contributing to the development of blockchain.
Fourth, the so-called community operation is nothing more than consensus. That is to give profits to retail investors. If retail investors cannot, they will become cash machines and have no profit at all. Including wool pulling is becoming more and more professional now. Basically, fewer and fewer real users get airdrops. There are only a few who really like the product. Even the witch studio may do better than the real players. The initial airdrops obtained by real players are negligible. At least meme gives retail investors more opportunities. At present, it is either a high-market-value project or a scam that uses retail investors to brush data to obtain financing, and then go to the big exchange and reap the benefits.
Finally, of course, many hardworking project owners, especially those with limited funds, may forget their original intentions and die prematurely when they see others making huge profits by just posting a local dog or an address.
The industry is currently facing a bottleneck. New things are needed for a revolution.

#BTC下跌分析 #币安合约锦标赛 #美联储何时降息？ #BTC☀

The bottom in my mind is basically at the beginning of 4
VcB has been questioned the most in this round of bull market. First, the market value is too high, with a valuation of billions of US dollars. Once unlocked, the market will be smashed and retail investors will not have a chance.
Second, the narrative is exhausted and there is no attractive genre.
Third, 90% of most project parties are holding the mentality of cutting leeks in the bull market, and a few are deeply engaged in contributing to the development of blockchain.
Fourth, the so-called community operation is nothing more than consensus. That is to give profits to retail investors. If retail investors cannot, they will become cash machines and have no profit at all. Including wool pulling is becoming more and more professional now. Basically, fewer and fewer real users get airdrops. There are only a few who really like the product. Even the witch studio may do better than the real players. The initial airdrops obtained by real players are negligible. At least meme gives retail investors more opportunities. At present, it is either a high-market-value project or a scam that uses retail investors to brush data to obtain financing, and then go to the big exchange and reap the benefits.
Finally, of course, many hardworking project owners, especially those with limited funds, may forget their original intentions when they see others making huge profits by just posting a local dog or an address, and of course they will die prematurely.
The industry is currently facing a bottleneck period. New things are needed to revolutionize it.

#BTC下跌分析 #币安合约锦标赛 #美联储何时降息？ #BTC☀

Yesterday I reminded you of the risks

Be patient and don't be anxious. This market is not about who makes more money, but who lives longer

Being alive is the first priority. No matter how big the difficulties are, they will be solved one day

Just like the financial market, you can only have a chance if you reduce leverage and stay alive.

As long as you are alive, you have a chance to turn around

The current bull market has come to this point, and the track is bullish and bearish.

First, it belongs to the sol ecosystem bull market, and the Ethereum ecosystem bear market

Second, the meme and ai tracks are bullish, and other tracks are tepid

Third, the bull market of the new track of the Bit B ecosystem has now started the third wave, which is also considered the mid-term bull market.

There are still many opportunities for everyone to make money. Either you delve into new tracks and new things, and play whatever is hot in the market, or you stick to the Ethereum ecosystem and make money in the late stage of the bull market.

#币安合约锦标赛 #Mt.Gox将启动偿还计划 #BTC走势分析 #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥 #美联储何时降息？