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Happy Pizza day 15th-anniversary, bitcoiners!

Bitcoin Halving Clock Visualization shows how bitcoin price follows the Wave in a spiral move.
Each turn is 210k blocks. "One hour" is 17500 blocks (approximately 120 days).
Last 3 cycle bottoms are around 7:30 and
Last 2 cycle tops are around 4:30.
Today is about 3:20. "One hour and 10 minutes left" to the expected top!

40 years ago I won this medal!

I began to work on the bitcoin cycle clock diagram.
This diagram introduces a 'Bitcoin Cycle Clock' where the dashed line is the wave (fuchsia line) from the indicator oscillating around Bitcoin's logarithmic price trend. The visualization is oriented so that the 12 o'clock position corresponds to the indicator's cyclical maximum—typically associated with peak market sentiment or overextension. Actual price peaks within past cycles are marked by circles, providing a framework to assess current market conditions against historical patterns defined by this indicator.

Interesting #ElliottWave scenario for #Bitcoin! 🧐 This 5-wave impulse up, followed by an A-B-C, is a classic pattern.

Confluence between different TA methods is always something to watch! $BTC

Bold Bitcoin, a digital sound,
Played rainbow waves that did abound.
With strings red and green,
A fluctuating scene,
Its value would leap and rebound.

A new visual update is available for Bitcoin Rainbow Wave indicator. The indicator includes an option to draw a price line in an adaptive color depending on the zone of the Rainbow chart within this indicator.

How would you like this color gradation depending on the level of the rainbow the price is in?

Major indicator update in April 2025.
Deep code optimizations were made to make it run faster.
New Fibonacci time levels for 0.312 (red vertical lines) and 0.618 (green vertical lines) were added as they are closely related to the cycle tops and bottoms, thanks to @incodeswetrust for this idea!
Two minor parameter adjustments:
Damping factor changed from 0.8 to 0.79.
Intercept changed from 1.46 to 1.47.
Available immediately when reloaded on a chart.
Bitcoin Rainbow Wave - #BTCUSD TradingView https://t.co/25lvULCPSf
@Giovann35084111, @TheRealPlanC, @Sina_21st

Bitcoin Cycle Update: The next 217 days are pivotal—a make-or-break moment for this cycle!
By "pivotal," I mean this period could either confirm a bullish breakout or signal a deeper correction.
I’ve marked 2 past and 1 possible upward moves (217 days each, avg. daily return +0.41%), showing strong momentum. The 2nd move, though, was cut short at 75%, hinting at potential interruptions.
On the flip side, I’ve highlighted 2 downward moves (147 days each, avg. daily return -0.17%), reflecting the risk of a bearish reversal.
My indicator suggests growth is realistic if momentum holds—potentially pushing BTC to new highs in $200k area. But if selling pressure dominates, we could see a failed cycle with earlier declines. The next 217 days will set the tone. Stay sharp!

Bitcoin is an emerging star system!

$1M per bitcoin by April 2033.
This is the prediction of the Bitcoin Rainbow Wave model based on the power law of blockchain blocks.

Fair Value Zone Updated Around the Power Law

I've made an update to the long-term market model, centering the fair value zone equally around the power law trend line.

This adjustment significantly enhances the clarity of past market extremes, making the "bubble triangles" (periods of significant overvaluation) very distinct, as seen in the chart.

Bubble Territory: Price spent 17.9% of the time.
Fair Value Zone: Price spent 74.5% of the time.
Undervalued Territory: Price spent 7.6% of the time.

The bubble zone 🫧 is still awaiting.
From November 2024 to February 2025, Bitcoin made a 4-month push toward the bubble zone🗯️ but fell back to the fair value zone (highlighted below). No new attempt to enter bubble territory has started yet. 📉
Chart Settings Tip: To focus on the fair value zone, go to the indicator settings and check "Show fair value zone" while unchecking other options.
📉Keeping a close watch! 📷

🌟 Estimating the Date of the Next Bitcoin Halving (Halving #5) from 1/4 of the way.
📷Today, block #892,500 was mined, marking exactly 1/4 of the journey to Halving #5 (from block 840,000 to 1,050,000).
Let’s break down the timeline and estimate the date of the next halving.

📷 Timeline and Calculations:
Duration for 1/4 of the journey (52,500 blocks): It took miners 360.25 days, or 31,126,005 seconds, to mine these blocks.

Average time per block: 31,126,005 seconds ÷ 52,500 blocks = 592.876 seconds per block.

For context, between Halving #3 and Halving #4, the average time per block was
592.127 seconds—this pace is quite stable.

Remaining blocks to Halving #5: The full journey from Halving #4 to Halving #5 is 210,000 blocks (52,500 × 4).

Total estimated time for 210,000 blocks: 360.2549*4 = 1,441.02 days.

📷 Halving #4 Date: Halving #4 occurred on April 20, 2024, at 2:09 AM.
Adding 1,441.02 days to this date brings us to March 31, 2028, at 2:36 AM.

📷 Based on the current mining pace, the most accurate estimate for Bitcoin’s 5th halving is March 31, 2028. Of course, this can shift due to changes in network difficulty or hash rate, but this gives us a solid benchmark! This is how the Rainbow Wave model estimates the future halving events.

The 525-Day Bitcoin Halving Hack You Can’t Ignore 👇
❤️‍🔥Sell your Bitcoin on September 27, 2025, and buy it back on October 23, 2026, with this CRAZY profitable strategy!

Starting with just $1,000 10 years ago, one could’ve turned it into 77 BTC—worth $15.8M by 2025.

Here’s the deal: Buy Bitcoin 525 days BEFORE a halving, sell 525 days AFTER. Repeat. That’s it!

We are left with only the "red" option for the normal cycle.
In the fall of 2024, there were 3 main options for the normal cycle top structure.
1. The first top is higher (yellow)
2. A high single top (green)
3. A late cycle top (red).
Today, we can conclude that only the third option (red) is available. If this option fails, the cycles will collapse. This will put a lot of pressure on the power law and the miner baseline in the next crypto winter.
Total2 may not recover in this case, which will mark the end of the crypto era.

https://x.com/i/grok/share/HZzoQJvLL3UJ3PTu3bOZ3YRhg
If you can read the math - you will see the beauty. Bitcoin is a pure math.

In just 5 days, the Bitcoin network will reach the 1/4 mark of the fifth halving epoch! Historically, the second quarter of a halving cycle signals a peak season—could this be the moment we've been waiting for? 📈

Bitcoin Wave Rainbow model from 2023 vs.
Bitcoin Rainbow Wave model from 2025.
The difference is not critical.