冷寒寒寒寒

Two days ago, I shared how to use major indicators to determine whether the market is at the bottom and whether there is a copycat season.

The market has started to rebound today, so what should we buy?
For example: op strk apt sui etc....

The top 100 projects by market value still contain many high-quality investment opportunities, which are worthy of everyone's in-depth exploration and attention.

Recently I updated the introduction and summary of the top 100 projects by market capitalization and found that the proportion of meme tokens has increased significantly compared with last year. I don’t know much about some of these tokens either. If you have different opinions or additions, please share them and let us communicate and learn together.

Link: https://b0hnkcz6m7i.feishu.cn/wiki/SRlPwyqW8iM2VrkUcAucJnxhn9c

Use $BTC to correspond the Bitcoin K-line trend in January 2021 to the news events in January 2025. There is no sense of disobedience in the interweaving of time and space ~~~

It reached a short-term high on January 8 and then began to fall.

The interest rate meeting on the 9th (no interest rate cut, negative) Bitcoin continued to fall.

The non-agricultural data on the 10th (did not meet expectations. Negative) continued the downward trend

The seventh Starship launch on the 11th (failed to launch, negative) continued to fall

From the 12th to the 14th, the oversold rebound was a technical correction.

The CPI data release on the 15th (did not meet expectations, negative) fell again.

Trump's coming to power on the 20th (positive) brought short-term optimistic expectations to the market, but the uncertainty of policy implementation limited the rebound.

The positive landing on the 21st became negative, which conforms to the law of "buy expectations and sell facts". BTC fell again.
On the 25th, X opened DOGE payment (fake news, plug-in) and continued to fall after the upper shadow line.

On the 30th, the interest rate decision was released (the last shock and contract explosion). The interest rate decision triggered the last round of market shocks, and the differences between the long and short sides intensified. The final liquidation was completed with huge fluctuations.

The February market officially started. After experiencing continuous negative news and adjustments in January, Bitcoin bottomed out and ushered in a new round of market launch in February.

Review of market conditions during Christmas and forecast for 2024

Christmas Quotes 2023:
December 11: The market experienced a significant 8% decline.
Follow-up trend: Entering a period of shock, testing the low set on December 11 multiple times. This trend continued until the Lunar New Year on January 22, 2024, and reached its lowest point on that day.

Christmas Quotes 2022:
December 14: The market fell back from its highest point, with an overall decline of 12%.
Subsequent trends: The market remained volatile, repeatedly testing lows, and finally hit the lowest point on December 30.

2020 Christmas Quotes:
Overall trend: There was a large fluctuation of about 10% during the period, but the overall performance was a volatile increase.
January 3 and January 11: Significant declines of 20% and 30% occurred respectively, and then the market continued to test the low of January 3.
January 27: The market bottoms out and rebounds, resuming its upward trend.

Christmas market forecast for 2024:
Reference basis: Given that 2020 is the outbreak period of the bull market, market behavior has a high reference value.
Recent news:
November 24: The market begins to trend downward.
December 5: The market experienced large fluctuations of approximately 13% (Tian Di Needle).
Prediction of subsequent trends: The market is currently repeatedly testing the low on November 26. Like the trend in 2020, there will be at least one or two chances to test 9w.

Summarize:
In the next operation, we will reduce our positions as time goes by and wait for the follow-up test. What is discussed here is $BTC , and the copycats can also have some reference. Since this round has ETFs + interest rate cuts + crypto-friendliness, we can only make profits and keep our bottom positions unchanged. It is suitable for people who can increase the currency standard in the band. Most people recommend waiting until April next year.

I organized my positions during the last callback, you can refer to it

Value VC coins: Eigen, APT, SUI, ENA, OP, STRK, MORPOH, Usual, BB
Value Meme coins: DOGE, PEPE

$CVX Reasonable Price Analysis and Valuation Framework
1. Recently, the price of $CRV has surged 4 times, driving its ecological token $CVX to rise simultaneously, sparking discussions in the market about the pricing of $CVX. What is the reasonable price of $CVX? Is there still an opportunity to get in?

2. Some believe that the value of $CVX should be 10 times the price of $CRV. This logic is mainly based on the indirect control that $CVX holders have over the governance of $CRV.

3. $CVX is essentially a platform token/mining token, and its function is more reflected in mining rewards and platform incentives rather than being the core driving asset of the $CRV ecosystem. Its price fluctuations are usually influenced by the price of $CRV, lacking independence.

4. Historically, the price of $CVX has shown a high correlation with $CRV. Based on historical data and current market conditions, the following historical ratios can be derived:
The price ratio of $CRV to $CVX typically fluctuates in the range of 1:4 to 1:8 (weekly)
For example, when the price of $CRV is 1 USDT, the reasonable price range for $CVX is 4-8 USDT.

5. From a functional perspective, the reasonable price range for $CVX is closer to 4-6 times the price of $CRV, meaning that based on the current price of $CRV at 1 USDT, the reasonable range is 4-6 USDT. This valuation aligns more with $CVX's positioning as a supporting token.

6. Summary
As of the time of writing this article, the current price of $CRV is 1.11, and the reasonable price for $CVX should be 4-6 times, which is 4.44-6.66 USDT; if it exceeds 8.88 USDT, it indicates short-term overvaluation. The current price of $CVX is 6.84 USDT, which has already exceeded the reasonable range. The cost-effectiveness is not high; if the price falls below 5, it represents an opportunity.

Last night $BTC dropped significantly, while $ETH did not follow the decline, and altcoins also did not follow. The recent volume and price are both good, indicating that there is capital supporting the market. Pullbacks are good opportunities. The altcoin season has officially begun
strk op ssv tia ena apt etc. There are too many good coins.

Wintermute holds a market-making position in the Memecoin TOP25, with 64% of the tokens already listed on Binance.

Common traits of tokens listed on Binance: high community engagement, market capitalization between $10 million and $500 million, and Wintermute's initial holding ratio of no less than 1%.

Significant changes in holdings:
1. NEIRO's holding ratio surged to 13.57%, becoming the token with the highest holding ratio.
2. GOAT surpassed MOODENG to become the top-ranked Memecoin by holding.
3. POPCAT's position value increased to $18.1 million, ranking third.
4. REKT, as the latest market-making project, is also worth paying attention to.

Tokens not listed on Binance: Including $PEPECOIN, $APU, $SPX, $COQ, $MANEKI, $michi, $MOTHER, and $BENJI, among which $BENJI is the project with the lowest market capitalization in the TOP25 holdings.

$AR storage sector, not pulled yet, Vegas channel + trend channel + 120 moving average + downtrend line breakthrough + retracement support.
It's going very well and the logic is similar to $TIA. Hope to see a breakthrough of the big positive line.

$OP, after several rounds of accumulation, each rebound has been quite good. After experiencing several rounds of accumulation, this time it has been 150 days. At that time, my judgment was that the fastest would be a few days, and the slowest would still have two months before there is any movement. Suddenly, I found that the volume increased while watching the market, I opened a long position at 1.66, then it fell to 1.5, and when it rebounded back to break even, I exited. I was indeed scared away. Yesterday, there was a sudden breakout with volume beyond the accumulation range; waiting for a secondary pullback to confirm is the best opportunity to get on board.

$SUI 0.3 The institution collapsed. No matter how good the technology is, it is useless. The project party has no money and keeps cashing out. It will return to zero. $SUI 2 Awesome. It has been said that SUI is extraordinary. MOVE Gemini, high financing, technology, follow the institution, it is right, $SOL killer 10u easily

Starknet is about to implement two major updates: STRK staking and Kakarot launch

STRK staking: Starknet will become the first network to implement a staking mechanism on L2, adding new features to the STRK token, including network protection and rewards

Spring DeFi rewards: The combination of staking rewards and spring DeFi rewards will bring in-network advantages to STRK holders

Kakarot launch: Kakarot will bring EVM compatibility to Starknet L2, enabling EVM developers to deploy dApps on Starknet and achieve interoperability with Cairo dApps

EVM compatibility: The addition of Kakarot heralds more bridges, dApps, and opportunities on Starknet, providing opportunities for large projects such as AAVE, Uniswap, etc. to join

Launch time: STRK staking has been launched on the testnet and is expected to enter the mainnet in a few weeks; Kakarot’s final testnet will be launched on October 10, and the mainnet is scheduled to be launched on November 11 Released in May/December.

$CRV DEFI cornerstone, the K-line is really hard to describe, it has never risen, and it has never reached the previous high, but now it has been reduced, this round of bull market is expected to reverse, and the recent accumulation of funds is obvious, and it is still no problem to double. The best economic model, the worst K-line 😂

I have said many times that strk is accumulating funds. Here I try to interpret the $strk accumulating fund technique. Of course, whether it breaks through or falls back with a long upper shadow line in the future, we need to continue to track and observe. Another pullback is a very good opportunity to get on board. Breaking through and standing firm on the horn line, it is officially announced to start, and it is ready to move. In October, the pledge back will be launched to cooperate with the positive pull-up, and the previous high of 2.5u will be reached first.

$strk The accumulation of funds is going well. Looking at the monthly line, the accumulation of funds this month is very obvious, but the bell mouth has not yet broken through. If it breaks through and stabilizes, it will be a sea of ​​stars. The current previous high

Another accurate liquidation. I took a screenshot two days ago. I felt that the chips around 55400 would be liquidated by a pin. Today, the pin was liquidated. The contract was equivalent to being shot in a line.

Grass airdropped, how much did you get?
I only have 145, many people say it's a loss, but I feel okay, I just hang there, no loss. Haidilao has it.
Airdrop query link: https://grassfoundation.io/eligibility
If you are accidentally injured by the witch, fill in the form: https://ywnom4oq1na.typeform.com/to/JuHDsxyx

STRK has been fluctuating sideways and accumulating funds recently.

Recently, staking is a big step towards the decentralization of Starknet.

Starknet plans to introduce a permissionless on-chain staking protocol with staking delegation.
That is, STRK holders can help protect the network while receiving rewards.
Further explore the role of STRK staking:

1. Holders can join the Starknet ecosystem as pledgers or delegators.

2. Pledgers need to run a full node: at least 20,000 STRK must be pledged.

3. Delegators delegate STRK to selected pledgers through the official UI or other dApp UIs.

4. The more STRK locked in the staking protocol, the lower the reward.

5. It helps balance incentives for staking and maintain network economic security.

Stay tuned, staking voting will start in September.
Test voting: September 3-5.
Formal voting: September 9-13. After the vote is passed, it is expected that the STRK staking function will be launched on the mainnet in the fourth quarter.

The market is weak, how will the market go next?

On August 5, the largest liquidation event in the history of the cryptocurrency circle occurred. Therefore, I think $49,000 can be regarded as the bottom. The second exploration will not be lower than $50,000.

The market is now near the high point of the last bull market, and there is still a lot of trapped funds, so the current shock is mainly to wash out the chips. The longer the shock time, the stronger the subsequent explosive power.

The recent bottom shock is the best time to change and select chips. The following are some of the tokens I personally like, such as SSV STRK OP PENDLED, etc..
Link: https://b0hnkcz6m7i.feishu.cn/wiki/YnYFwpaLCimpRak9uKvcHXAlntg?from=from_copylink

Pectra upgrade is the upgrade that Ethereum will carry out in Q4 (if postponed to Q1 next year), which is rarely mentioned in the market. It will increase the number of nodes from 32 to 2048.

$SSV is fully circulated, with a market value of 212 million. The Ethereum Foundation's paper and technology are written into the Ethereum 2.0 roadmap. SSV code can be found in the Ethereum code base. It is the leader of DVT. It has been washed for a long time, and few people have chips in their hands.

Expected benefits:
Ethereum ETF is pledged.

Coinbase, UPbit.

The SSV token model is about to change. Staking with SSV can reduce the handling fees for people who pledge Ethereum and share the network fees. (Empowerment and reduction of circulation)
SSV TVL growth, currently 1.3 million ETH (3.6 billion US dollars) is pledged, and it is expected to be more than 5 million ETH.

SSV is also a strong currency. It has been pulled twice in the past two years, once 7-50 and once 11-66. See you at 100 this time

Starknet will launch the staking function on the testnet in September and plans to launch it on the mainnet in October.
$STRK currently has an institutional holding cost of $0.8. After a period of sideways decline, the valuation is basically reasonable and the price has broken through the downward trend line. With the launch of the staking function, the circulation will decrease, which will help the price rise. First go up 1u