lea2024

🧠"Is free $BTC really worth it?"Katrina from @UPayOfficial_EN wasn’t sure at first…But @salss_666 from @Bitcoin.com came prepared 🔥

Convincing Web3 minds, one Golden Ticket at a http://time.Watch how it played out at @festival_web3

💸 @RayDalio just warned of a full-blown global collapse—worse than 2008, maybe worse than 1971, citing:

🔸Exploding debt🔸Political chaos🔸Global power shifts🔸Climate shocks🔸AI + tech upheaval

Hedge fund legend’s alert decoded by @graminitha1. Watch the breakdown👇

Yep, kind of a clickbait title but it doesn't fail to serve justice to this very important Bitcoin (BTCUSD) chart.
Today's analysis displays in the most illustrative way the extremely tight symmetry between BTC's Cycles and how this can help us time our Sell at the Top of the Cycle and equally have the patience to buy as close to the next Bottom as possible.
As you see, in the past +10 years since the 2014 Bear Cycle, every Cycle has almost identical time ranges/ durations. All three Bear Cycles since then, lasted for approximately 1 year, and both Bull Cycles for almost 3 years (152 weeks, 1064 days to be exact). More specifically, the last two Bear Cycles were exactly 1 year long, the 2018 one started on the week of December 11 2017 and ended on December 10 2018 and the next Bear Cycle started on November 15 2021 and ended on November 07 2022. So it's been December-to-December and November-to-November Bear Cycles respectively.
If this high degree of symmetry continues to hold, counting 1064 days from the last Cycle Bottom o November 07 2022, gives a time estimate for the next Cycle Top on (the week of) October 06 2025. If also that holds for the Bear Cycle, expect an October-to-October duration, with an approximate bottom on October 12 2026.
So Sell everything up to October 2025 and Buy back as we get close to October 2026 is the strategy?
Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea!
#BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSDT #BTCUSD #signals

The crypto bull run may have ended, with the market poised for a winter characterized by prolonged losses and stagnation, according to Coinbase's institutional arm.

"The 200DMA model on bitcoin does suggest that the token’s recent steep decline qualifies this as a bear market cycle starting in late March. But the same exercise performed on the COIN50 index (which includes the top 50 tokens by market capitalization) shows the asset class as a whole has been unequivocally trading in bear market territory since the end of February," David Duong, global head of research at Coinbase Institutional, said in a note published Monday.

Bitcoin slipped below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) on March 9 and has since established a foothold below the same in a sign of a long-term bearish shift in momentum. The 200-day SMA is widely tracked to gauge long-term trends, with persistent moves above the same, representing a bull market and vice versa.

Duong noted this observation while addressing the challenges of identifying a crypto bear market, where 20% or more corrections are routine. In contrast, a 20% decline is typically used to define bear markets in stock markets.

The report argued that the arbitrary 20% often fails to account for a dent in investor sentiment and resulting portfolio adjustments spurred by smaller, more intense sell-offs.

"We’ve seen in the past that sentiment-driven declines can often trigger defensive portfolio adjustments, despite not meeting the arbitrary 20% threshold. In other words, we believe that bear markets fundamentally represent regime shifts in market structure – characterized by deteriorating fundamentals and shrinking liquidity – rather than just their percentage declines," Duong noted.

In addition to the 200-day SMA, Duong highlighted bitcoin's risk-adjusted performance measured in standard deviations (z-score) relative to the average performance over the previous 365 days as another effective method for identifying crypto bear markets.

"Our [z-score] model indicates that the most recent bull cycle ended in late February. But it has since classified all subsequent activity as "neutral," highlighting its potential lag in rapidly changing market dynamics," Duong said, calling for a defensive stance on risk asses for the time being.

The impending winter may be more brutal for alternative cryptocurrencies considering the slowdown in the venture capital (VC) funding.

While BTC set new highs early this year, well above the 2021 top of $70K, the bullish trend failed to inspire more risk taking in the VC space, leaving the overall funding 50%-60% below 2021-22 levels.

Duong said that the crypto market "may find a floor in mid-to-late 2Q25 – setting up a better 3Q25."