Let's briefly organize some spot trades for October; there may be omissions. No hindsight, records can be verified.
Bitcoin surged from a low of 58900 to 73660, and has yet to break a new high. The altcoin market is quite volatile, so we can only play around with spot trading for fans. Whether it's spot or contracts, overall profits are still quite good; you can just say if you made money or not!
November marks a new beginning, returning to the battlefield. The results of the US election are about to be publicly announced. We only engage in certain market movements; Old Xu will continue to lay out some very promising spot trades. Right now, many altcoins are about to rebound on the weekly trend, and this is the time to see everyone's market intuition. Buying accurately and running fast is the way to go!
1. China has engaged in dialogue with the United States regarding tariff issues, easing the situation, unlike the previous state of hostility. China has cut interest rates and reserve requirements!
2. Gained the purchasing power of the American state treasury, using Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, which will lead to increasing liquidity in the future!
These two major positive developments may not be digested in a single day, and the maximum support and resistance conversion point below is only 95,000 in the short term! However, the extreme point may not be reached, so we can slightly move it forward.
BTC Starting to build a bottom rebound at 93500, there is a chance to stabilize and touch the 100000 high point next. The volume increase in the 1-hour chart this morning brought enough momentum, and the bullish trend will continue, so hold onto the long positions. Today, pay attention to the resistance at 98500-99000 and support at 94300-93800.
ETH: An upgrade will take place today at 6:05 PM. Currently, the technical pullback has been completed, and a strong rebound has appeared near the middle track of the daily K-line, so hold onto the long positions as well. Today, pay attention to the resistance at 1850-1880 and support at 1750-1725.
May 7 Fed Interest Rate Decision: What It Means for the Cryptocurrency Market
The next meeting of the Federal Reserve will be held on May 7, and I firmly believe: the likelihood of a rate hike or cut this time is almost zero. But that does not mean the market is calm, far from it.
Now all eyes are on what Jerome Powell will say at the press conference and how the economy will perform in June.
May: No expected changes The prediction market Polymarket predicts a 98% chance that the Fed will not adjust interest rates at the May meeting. On the other hand, there is a 2% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in May.
Inflation is slowly cooling down but still above the Fed's 2% target. Although interest rates have reached 5.25% to 5.50%, the highest level in over 20 years, the Fed still seems to be in a wait-and-see mode.
However, even though a “pause” in May is almost certain, the market is not only focused on the Fed's actions but is also closely monitoring the remarks of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
June: A turning point? The situation in June will become murky, with a 72% chance that the Fed will not adjust interest rates at the June meeting. Further market expectations show a roughly 25% chance of a rate cut. If job growth slows or inflation declines further, this possibility may increase.
This makes the upcoming inflation and employment reports crucial. A weak employment report or weak consumer price data could influence the inclination for a rate cut.
On the other hand, if inflation remains high, the Fed may stick to its current stance or even start discussing maintaining high rates for the long term.
Powell's tone is more important than ever Interestingly, the market's reaction to remarks from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell may be greater than its reaction to Fed actions. If he is too hawkish and uses terms like “persistent inflation” or “inadequate progress,” the market could face a significant sell-off.
Tech stocks and interest rate-sensitive sectors may decline, bond yields could rise quickly, the dollar may strengthen, while assets like Bitcoin or gold may lose momentum.
Strong Inflows into Ethereum ETF: Is the Trend of Breaking through $2000 Coming Soon?
Recently, the demand for Ethereum spot ETFs has surged significantly, attracting a net inflow of $104 million in the past 24 hours, bringing total assets to $6.14 billion.
This has pushed the net asset value of ETH ETFs to an impressive $6.14 billion, with a net asset ratio of 2.83%. Such growth reflects the increasing interest of institutional investors.
The historical cumulative inflow has now climbed to $2.4 billion, indicating strong interest from institutional investors. If this momentum continues, Ethereum is likely to retest the $2000 level.
However, any strategic profit-taking by sellers could trigger a downward trend, potentially pulling ETH back to the support range of $1730.
Is the SUI price expected to continue rising by 50%, potentially reaching $10 by the end of 2025?
After breaking through the descending wedge, the SUI price surged over 66% and is currently in a strong consolidation phase, preparing for the next price movement. Additionally, the platform is about to undergo the largest token unlock in its history, which is expected to trigger market volatility. Many believe that the volatility of SUI is similar to that of Solana before the bull market of 2021. If all goes well, the SUI price seems to be at the bottom of a massive breakout, potentially pushing it into double digits.
This week, multiple token unlock events are expected in the cryptocurrency sector, which will create ripples throughout the market. One of the popular meme coins, TRUMP, is expected to unlock tokens worth $7.35 million daily this week, while SUI leads in terms of unlock volume. The foundation is about to unlock tokens worth nearly $200 million. A large number of tokens are expected to flood the market, intensifying market volatility.
Given that the SUI price has faced similar bullish and bearish pressures in recent days, here are the next steps for this popular cryptocurrency.
The weekly chart for SUI shows significant bullish signals, indicating that the token is about to enter the third phase of a bull market. Its price has exhibited similar trends at both the beginning and the end of 2024. Interestingly, the price has broken through the descending wedge, and if previous trends recur, the SUI price is expected to rise 4 to 5 times, setting new historical highs. Additionally, the weekly MACD indicates that selling pressure has decreased, and a bullish crossover is imminent.
This confirms the bullish outlook, as the SUI price is displaying a pullback trend similar to previous movements, after previously surging to a new high of around $5.32. The current trading pattern suggests that the price might break through $4 in a short time, likely shortly after the token unlock, which could trigger a significant bearish trend, pulling the price down to around $3. However, the subsequent rebound could initiate a new bull market, eventually breaking through new highs around $7.
What is the next target price for SOL? Resistance levels intersect here
Solana is moving towards the designated orange target area ($160 to $188).
After establishing a bottom in the support area around $96, Solana entered a strong rebound phase. The quick breakout of the red downward trend line sent out the first strong bullish signal. According to the analyzed scenario, a V-shaped recovery occurred, with an increase of over 50%.
Solana is currently approaching a strong resistance area between $170 and $188, where key Fibonacci levels and significant resistance intersect, marking the first major decision for price direction.
Currently, Solana's trading price is around $147. Over the past month, the price of SOL has dropped to just below $100.
Will SOL encounter resistance in the target area, or will it experience a sustained trend reversal, creating higher highs and lows?
If you have specific questions you'd like to know, feel free to call me
How to grasp a high probability of success in short-term trading?
To achieve a high success rate in short-term trading, the key is not how fast you can act or how accurately you can grasp the market, but whether you can focus only on the trades that need to be made.
The first step is to ensure the direction is correct. Regardless of whether you are trading on a 5-minute or 1-minute chart, it is fundamental to first look at the direction of the larger timeframe. For example, if you use the 1-hour chart to determine the trend and it's an uptrend, then you should only look for pullback opportunities to go long on the 5-minute chart; if it's a downtrend, you should only look for short positions on rebounds. Don’t think you can catch everything; you are not the savior of the market. If the direction is wrong, no matter how good the pattern is, it’s useless.
Secondly, only trade the patterns you are most familiar with. The biggest taboo in short-term trading is jumping in just because you see volatility, trading too casually. You should wait for the “golden patterns” that you are familiar with and have verified repeatedly to appear before taking action. For instance, a reversal after a false breakout or a second test at key support and resistance levels are patterns with high winning rates and clear logic. Don’t make blind guesses; wait for your rhythm to align before trading.
Thirdly, control your trading frequency and focus on the few trades where you have confidence. One or two trades a day are enough; don’t keep switching back and forth all day, going long and short on everything. Think about it: if you’re hesitant to add to your position, then it might not be worth trading at all. Truly high-winning-rate trades are not about “quantity,” but about “selectivity.” The more restrained you are, the more stable you will be.
Finally, make sure to review the trades that went the smoothest for you. You will find that those trades that felt the most natural, least hesitant, and most secure often occur in similar rhythms and structures. Summarizing this, it becomes your own “golden template.” Repeat this process, continue to optimize, and constantly amplify your advantageous scenarios; this is the key to achieving stability in short-term trading.
A high success rate in short-term trading = Following the trend + Key levels + Familiar patterns + Few but precise trades + Stable review mechanism. It’s not about quantity, but accuracy; not about speed, but stability.
I will continue to layout my winning trades! Rather than fumbling around and missing the best entry and exit points leading to losses, it’s better to follow this old Xu’s operations; if you agree with me, come directly to me.
Fear and Greed Index Rises to 65, Bitcoin Drives Market Sentiment
On April 26, the cryptocurrency 'Fear and Greed Index' has risen to '65', reflecting an increasing 'bullish sentiment' in the market. This index has increased from '60' the previous day, indicating a wave of 'greed' among investors.
The index ranges from '0-100' and takes into account several key factors: volatility (25%), market trading volume (25%), social media hype (15%), market surveys (15%), Bitcoin's overall market dominance (10%), and Google Trends analysis (10%).
These indicators play a crucial role in assessing investor sentiment and market momentum. As the cryptocurrency ecosystem continues to evolve, these indicators provide important insights, enabling traders and enthusiasts to respond more accurately to the complexities of this dynamic landscape.
How does today's Bitcoin and Ethereum look? 1. Last night it just broke through 95500, but it has been a bit stagnant for the past two days. Although it is at a high level, the sentiment is a bit 'overheated'. For example: Even though the number of people buying above 950 has surged, there has been no significant breakthrough, indicating that there is speculation about the future, but in reality, it might be stuck. At this time, it's easy to be 'cut' by big players.
2. It has been testing 955-965, which has been tested multiple times before without breaking. Although it is a new high, the RSI did not synchronize with the rise and instead went down, indicating that the upward momentum is too weak.
3. After moving up to around 957-952, it is moving down, with a target floor at 930-920.
Today, Bitcoin is expected to show no signs of breaking through, while Ethereum is expected to continue to rise.
Investment Traps and Opportunities | Analysis of Double Bottom Manipulation Reversal Entry
In the market, the double bottom pattern is often seen as an important signal for trend reversal. However, a small mistake can lead to falling into a 'manipulation trap.' How to distinguish between true and false signals and grasp the safe entry timing is a skill that every trader must master.
1. Double Bottom Pattern and Manipulation Trap: • Double Bottom: Two low points form a horizontal support area, initially indicating an increase in buying power. • Manipulation: The market quickly reverses after breaking support, attracting shorts to enter, thereby creating conditions for the main force to accumulate positions. Key: If you see the price fake breaking support and then quickly rebounding, be wary of manipulation signs.
2. Entry Timing and Order Zone: • Bullish Order Block: After market manipulation is complete, prices usually return above the order block (support area). • Entry Point: When a bullish signal forms after the price returns to the support area, entry can be considered.
Tip: Be sure to wait for pattern confirmation before acting to avoid chasing prices too early.
The Bitcoin short squeeze has ended, volume is declining, and there is a MACD divergence on the hourly level. The KDJ has formed an overbought death cross, and a wide range of fluctuations will begin, without continuing to rise. There is a small expectation of a pullback, be aware that the first pullback to the 90,000 support level is an opportunity to enter long positions. Altcoins will also retrace in sync with Bitcoin.