老许不要老婆

4月28 日 #分析行情

一）大盘走势
过去一周，加密市场净流入近90亿美元资金，加密市场大盘震荡，若ETH出现突破或引发山寨集体上涨。今日恐慌与贪婪指数降至 61，仍处于「贪婪状态」。

观点：比特币已重回200日移动平均线上方，预计后市看涨
近期热点: 美国参议员呼吁弹劾特朗普，迷因币晚宴引争议

二）ALPHA信息
（1）灰度敦促SEC批准以太坊ETF质押，称已错失6100万美元收益。
（2）Arbitrum、BSC和Noble位列过去7天跨链桥资金净流入前三，过去 7 天内 Arbitrum 跨链桥净流入资金达 3.1324 亿美元，位居所有公链之首。(利好)

（3）$OP、$SUI以及$ZETA等将于本周迎来大额解锁，其中$SUI解锁代币价值2.59亿美元。(利空)

（4）1inch团队投资基金近2日累计买入约550万枚$1INCH，花费 109.4 万 USDC。(利好)

（5）Michael Saylor暗示将增持比特币，再度发布投资追踪图表。（利好）

（6）Justin Sun发文喊单$JST：相信它将成为下一个百倍币,明年保守收入预测将超 1 亿美元，当前估值与之相比非常低。JST 最终将用全部利润在适当时间回购并销毁 JST 代币。(利好)

#BTC #技术分析参考 Due to drinking too much yesterday, I forgot to share and will make up for it today

🔵 Core Support Levels
$92,000: Previous day's opening price + VAL overlap area, stabilize to go long.
$91,000: Historical gap bottom, strong psychological support.
$88,000: Long-term trend line, rebound level after extreme selling.

🔴 Core Resistance Levels
$95,600: Monthly breakout level, stabilizing confirms a bull market.
$96,000: Weekly VAH + upper channel line, multiple pressures.
$97,000: Psychological level, beware of profit-taking after breakout.

✅ Long Conditions
Entry: $92k-$93k (volume decrease pullback) or $91k (gap support).
Stop Loss: For $92k long, stop loss below $91k; for $91k long, stop loss below $88k.
Target: $95.6k → $96k-$97k.

❌ Short Conditions
Entry: $95.6k-$96k (stalling signal) or $97k (no volume spike).
Stop Loss: For $96k short, stop loss at $96.5k; for $97k short, stop loss at $97.5k.
Target: $94k → $92k.

📌 Key Insights
Short-term bullish: Monthly/weekly chart shows a breakout structure, stabilizing at $95.6k will accelerate.
Risk Warning: If it falls below $92k, a deep correction to $88k may occur.
(Strategies need to be validated with volume/price action and adjusted flexibly)

📊 Bitcoin Key Level Analysis | Trading Strategy
⏳ Update Date: April 14, 2025
📌 Core Logic: Technical Level Game + Volume and Price Verification

🔍 Key Support and Resistance
🟢 Support Level (Buyer's Defense Line)

Price Range Technical Basis Importance
81,500 Previous multiple rebounds Poor Low ★★★★☆
79,500 200-day moving average + Weekly EQ Overlap ★★★★★
83,000-83,600 Previous day Value Area High (VAH) ★★★☆☆

🔴 Resistance Level (Seller's Pressure)

Price Range Technical Basis Breakthrough Difficulty
85,000-85,400 ETH High + Swing High ★★★★☆
86,000-86,900 Weekly Midpoint + Psychological Level ★★★★★
87,000-87,700 Weekly Trend Key Watershed ★★★★☆
⚡️ Trading Strategy
🎯 Bullish Opportunities

Entry 1: Around 81,500 + Long Lower Shadow/Volume Rebound → Stop Loss 80,900, Target 83,500

Entry 2: Stabilization at 79,500 + 200-day moving average support → Stop Loss 78,800, Target 84,000

🎯 Bearish Opportunities

Entry 1: False Breakout at 85,400-86,000 → Stop Loss 86,600, Target 83,000

Entry 2: Pullback after reaching 87,200 → Stop Loss 87,800, Target 85,000

⚠️ Risk Control Points

Position ≤ 5%, Strict Stop Loss Following Technical Levels

Breakthrough at 87,700 then stop loss for short positions and reverse to try longs

🌐 Macro and Technical Perspectives
📉 Short Term (1-3 Days)

Neutral oscillation, focus on breakthrough direction of 85k-87k

Key Signal: Can the daily closing stabilize above 86,900?

📈 Medium to Long Term (Weekly)

Double Bottom Structure Prototype, but need to be cautious:

Macro Data (Inflation/Interest Rate Policy)

Exchange BTC Inventory Changes

📌 Summary
"The market is in a compressed spring state — the breakthrough direction will determine the next phase trend."

Conservative: Wait for daily level confirmation (breakthrough/pullback)

Aggressive: Buy low and sell high within the range, strictly adhere to stop loss

🎨 Design Explanation:

Use colors to distinguish between bullish and bearish (Green/Red) to enhance readability

Table compares support and resistance levels, highlighting key parameters

Strategy section uses arrow symbols to guide visual flow

Adds risk warning icon (⚠️) to reinforce discipline

Regarding the issue of the tariff trade war, China and the United States have officially begun retaliatory tariff measures. Before a compromise is reached, it is difficult for a risky asset like BTC to rise directly. The market is currently waiting for a definitive signal of 'compromise.' Once the news lands, it will be the moment for Bitcoin to counterattack.
This recent decline is primarily due to negative news, such as Trump's announcement of tax increases, which directly impacted market sentiment. However, since the bad news has already been released, the next competition is about who softens first. No one wants to push to the limit; otherwise, no one can withstand another global financial collapse.
So there's no need to panic; instead, it might be the time to build positions. My strategy is clear: the direction is bullish, and the contract strategy uses limit orders. The short-term entry range is set around 80400; place orders in advance and avoid chasing highs.
I set the stop-loss at 78800, which is the structural support baseline. As long as the market doesn’t break this level, the long position structure will stand. I won’t set a fixed take-profit for now, because if there is a significant breakthrough in the future, the counterattack space could be substantial. I will dynamically adjust my position above 81000 based on the situation.
The operational thought is clear: first, enter with a small position; if the market does pull back, then add to the position in batches according to the plan; if there is no pullback and it rises directly, then I will ride the main uptrend.
The current market is at a critical juncture, with fundamental, emotional, and technical aspects resonating together, making it the best window for positioning. Brothers, remember one thing: significant market movements are always awaited, not chased.