Kevin Jay 777
推特(Twitter/X)：kevinjay777
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Carving a Boat to Seek a Sword
Sharing another historical trend of Bitcoin during the past two bull and bear cycles.
In the chart below, we can see from the peak of the 2013 bull market to the bottom of the subsequent bear market and draw a Fibonacci sequence, discovering that the price of the next round of the 2017 bull market will fall between 1.618 and 2.414 of this sequence expanding upwards.
Similarly, drawing Fibonacci from the 2017 bull peak, we will find that the peak of the bull market in 2021 also falls between 1.618 and 2.414.
Following this inertia and deducing astonishingly similar history, we can find that the price of the bull market peak in 2025 will fall between 170,000 and 300,000 USD, starting from the bull market peak of 69,000 in 2021 down to the bottom of 15,000.
In the chart below, we can see from the peak of the 2013 bull market to the bottom of the subsequent bear market and draw a Fibonacci sequence, discovering that the price of the next round of the 2017 bull market will fall between 1.618 and 2.414 of this sequence expanding upwards.
Similarly, drawing Fibonacci from the 2017 bull peak, we will find that the peak of the bull market in 2021 also falls between 1.618 and 2.414.
Following this inertia and deducing astonishingly similar history, we can find that the price of the bull market peak in 2025 will fall between 170,000 and 300,000 USD, starting from the bull market peak of 69,000 in 2021 down to the bottom of 15,000.
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The Peak of This Bull Market
I saw it shared by a foreign expert and found the historical similarities amazing
Just sharing
In the first image, the blue line is the 200-week moving average,
The white horizontal dashed line is the bull market peak of each round
Every time the blue moving average crosses above the previous bull peak
It will be the peak of this bull market
The second image is an enlarged view
If estimated according to this calculation
The 200-week moving average needs to cross above the previous bull peak of 69,000
The timing is likely to fall in the fourth quarter of this year
Maybe around September, October to December
It also coincidentally aligns with my previous estimate of the peak time of this bull market
It's really amazing! History is always remarkably similar
And I still think the peak of this bull run will be between 170,000 and 250,000 USD
Just sharing
In the first image, the blue line is the 200-week moving average,
The white horizontal dashed line is the bull market peak of each round
Every time the blue moving average crosses above the previous bull peak
It will be the peak of this bull market
The second image is an enlarged view
If estimated according to this calculation
The 200-week moving average needs to cross above the previous bull peak of 69,000
The timing is likely to fall in the fourth quarter of this year
Maybe around September, October to December
It also coincidentally aligns with my previous estimate of the peak time of this bull market
It's really amazing! History is always remarkably similar
And I still think the peak of this bull run will be between 170,000 and 250,000 USD
See original
There must be a correction before a big surge.
The previous few articles mentioned that there would be a major correction, and then continue to rise.
As a result, yesterday's FOMC meeting only saw a slight correction. Trump directly tweeted to cancel the chip restrictions worldwide, and Bitcoin surged directly to 99,000... I really didn't expect this.
But it is currently obvious that it is forming an ending wedge, which is a bearish pattern.
I still believe that the upper round number of 100,000 is a very strong resistance level and it should be difficult to break through and stabilize all at once.
However, Ethereum is particularly strong today. Does this mean Bitcoin will take a break next, while altcoins soar?
As a result, yesterday's FOMC meeting only saw a slight correction. Trump directly tweeted to cancel the chip restrictions worldwide, and Bitcoin surged directly to 99,000... I really didn't expect this.
But it is currently obvious that it is forming an ending wedge, which is a bearish pattern.
I still believe that the upper round number of 100,000 is a very strong resistance level and it should be difficult to break through and stabilize all at once.
However, Ethereum is particularly strong today. Does this mean Bitcoin will take a break next, while altcoins soar?
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Dragging on, should it drop?
2025/05/06 - Bitcoin's intraday trend forecast for today
Currently, the small time frame is forming an ascending flag pattern, with the bottom tested 3 times.
I believe it will test the upper level 3 times, which means it will rebound to a higher point, likely around 95400 to 95600. This also aligns with the rebound high point position mentioned yesterday.
Then it will start to decline. The first phase of the correction target is 90000 to 91000.
The method for entering short on the left side is to build a position directly near 95400.
The right side is to enter short after breaking below the trend line.
$BTC
$SOL
Currently, the small time frame is forming an ascending flag pattern, with the bottom tested 3 times.
I believe it will test the upper level 3 times, which means it will rebound to a higher point, likely around 95400 to 95600. This also aligns with the rebound high point position mentioned yesterday.
Then it will start to decline. The first phase of the correction target is 90000 to 91000.
The method for entering short on the left side is to build a position directly near 95400.
The right side is to enter short after breaking below the trend line.
$BTC
$SOL
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Mentioned a pullback
Bitcoin has been reminding everyone about the need for a correction since my previous articles last week, the stage top has arrived.
At that time, it rose close to 98000, and a bunch of people were calling for it to reach 100000?
For the specific levels of this correction, you can refer to my previous article.
Today's intraday trend is as follows:
Yellow arrow: if it directly breaks down this ascending wedge (blue line), then short immediately.
Red arrow: first bounce up to around 95400, then short.
Both short positions have target prices around the integer level of 90000.
$BTC
$SOL
#加密市场回调 #美国稳定币法案 #空投发现指南 #空投操作全指南 #空投防骗手册
At that time, it rose close to 98000, and a bunch of people were calling for it to reach 100000?
For the specific levels of this correction, you can refer to my previous article.
Today's intraday trend is as follows:
Yellow arrow: if it directly breaks down this ascending wedge (blue line), then short immediately.
Red arrow: first bounce up to around 95400, then short.
Both short positions have target prices around the integer level of 90000.
$BTC
$SOL
#加密市场回调 #美国稳定币法案 #空投发现指南 #空投操作全指南 #空投防骗手册
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As expected, reaching the peak
Bitcoin is currently, as I have continuously reminded in my previous three articles, approaching a stage top position! It is starting to decline now.
Recently, I still maintain my original view, which is that a major correction is coming.
In the chart below, it is clear that the five upward waves have already completed. Although it is possible to push up two more waves to form a terminal wedge of the seven waves, that is a more extreme scenario.
Currently, we are watching the yellow ABC three-wave correction in the chart below. The final correction should see 85,000!
After the correction, it should start reaching new historical highs.
$BTC
#比特幣走勢分析
Recently, I still maintain my original view, which is that a major correction is coming.
In the chart below, it is clear that the five upward waves have already completed. Although it is possible to push up two more waves to form a terminal wedge of the seven waves, that is a more extreme scenario.
Currently, we are watching the yellow ABC three-wave correction in the chart below. The final correction should see 85,000!
After the correction, it should start reaching new historical highs.
$BTC
#比特幣走勢分析
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A sharp drop is imminent
The whole network is bullish and is shouting that the altcoin season has arrived?
But as I wrote in my previous articles, I only see Bitcoin preparing for a big pullback!
I estimate that tonight will create another high point, maybe spike to 97000, or around 96250, and then prepare for a big pullback.
I believe this pullback will reach 84000 to 85000, and then a new round of rising will begin. As for whether the new round of increase will create a historical high or will it top out around 100,000? That's for later.
Just watch and walk, don't FOMO.
Chart one was drawn 5 days ago.
Chart two is the Wyckoff distribution phase.
(Currently believe we are ready to surge high and then retreat, just tonight)
But as I wrote in my previous articles, I only see Bitcoin preparing for a big pullback!
I estimate that tonight will create another high point, maybe spike to 97000, or around 96250, and then prepare for a big pullback.
I believe this pullback will reach 84000 to 85000, and then a new round of rising will begin. As for whether the new round of increase will create a historical high or will it top out around 100,000? That's for later.
Just watch and walk, don't FOMO.
Chart one was drawn 5 days ago.
Chart two is the Wyckoff distribution phase.
(Currently believe we are ready to surge high and then retreat, just tonight)
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Bitcoin Top Approaching
The article posted 3 days ago clearly indicated that Bitcoin might be following the Wyckoff distribution model at this stage, which suggests the position of a potential local top.
It really looks like it right now 🥰
Next, if there is a final surge and then a drop, around 96262, or a spike up to 97000, be careful as it may not be advisable to chase long positions.
The image below was drawn 5 days ago 🤭
We should currently be in the final segment of the green box, preparing for a surge and drop. Pay attention to medium and short-term positions as it may be appropriate to take profits at high levels.
$BTC
$ETH
#比特幣走勢分析
It really looks like it right now 🥰
Next, if there is a final surge and then a drop, around 96262, or a spike up to 97000, be careful as it may not be advisable to chase long positions.
The image below was drawn 5 days ago 🤭
We should currently be in the final segment of the green box, preparing for a surge and drop. Pay attention to medium and short-term positions as it may be appropriate to take profits at high levels.
$BTC
$ETH
#比特幣走勢分析
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Bitcoin Stage Top Has Arrived
As mentioned in the previous article, I originally thought there would be a retracement to 80,000 before a rise. However, this week it shot up directly!
But I also mentioned in my article that if it stabilizes above 88,500, the retracement to 8 would be invalid, so theoretically, this wave of surge should also be sustainable 😊
I currently believe we are very close to a phase top position. I think it will follow a distribution pattern similar to Wyckoff, possibly creating two more peaks before starting to pull back.
The image below is what I drew yesterday morning, and it currently aligns with the trend.
We will wait and see 😊
$BTC
$ETH
#加密市场反弹 #比特幣走勢分析
But I also mentioned in my article that if it stabilizes above 88,500, the retracement to 8 would be invalid, so theoretically, this wave of surge should also be sustainable 😊
I currently believe we are very close to a phase top position. I think it will follow a distribution pattern similar to Wyckoff, possibly creating two more peaks before starting to pull back.
The image below is what I drew yesterday morning, and it currently aligns with the trend.
We will wait and see 😊
$BTC
$ETH
#加密市场反弹 #比特幣走勢分析
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Has Bitcoin's bull returned?
As I mentioned in my previous article about Binance Square, I still believe that confirmation of a phase bottom/top requires a process of double testing the bottom/top.
I still believe there will be a retest around 79,000 to 80,000, and then a new round of increase will begin.
As for whether this new round of increase is a rebound or a reversal (creating a new historical high)? That is another matter.
During the decline back to 80,000, it should progress in three phases (as shown by the white line in the chart). There should be a small rebound at 84,800, and then eventually decline to around 79,000 to 80,000.
Chart 2 shows that the decline throughout this year has been characterized by each subsequent high not exceeding the previous high, indicating a persistent bearish trend.
I still believe there will be a retest around 79,000 to 80,000, and then a new round of increase will begin.
As for whether this new round of increase is a rebound or a reversal (creating a new historical high)? That is another matter.
During the decline back to 80,000, it should progress in three phases (as shown by the white line in the chart). There should be a small rebound at 84,800, and then eventually decline to around 79,000 to 80,000.
Chart 2 shows that the decline throughout this year has been characterized by each subsequent high not exceeding the previous high, indicating a persistent bearish trend.
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Bitcoin Market Outlook
🎯 Conclusion: First decline, then rise.
The market two days ago took the liquidity from the previous high above and then smoothly declined.
But many heavy lows have already accumulated below.
There are a lot of stop losses for long positions over there.
I still believe the market will go back and sweep them.
It might spike to near the integer level of 80,000.
There is also a small price gap that quickly surged up.
#比特幣 #bitcoin $BTC
The market two days ago took the liquidity from the previous high above and then smoothly declined.
But many heavy lows have already accumulated below.
There are a lot of stop losses for long positions over there.
I still believe the market will go back and sweep them.
It might spike to near the integer level of 80,000.
There is also a small price gap that quickly surged up.
#比特幣 #bitcoin $BTC
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