君宝

Today I entered BTC and DOGE.
BTC tested the daily line Vegas double area again today. In the chart below, you can see the trend of the last 5 tests on this EMA area. I entered BTC at 81500, a bit late, and the current 4H is continuously rebounding. I will follow up if there are any changes.

BTC 1D

Actually, DOGE has been falling quite badly during this period, and it may not necessarily be a good target. However, I personally really enjoy trading DOGE. The market liquidity is quite ample, and both the downturns and upswings are quite sharp. Additionally, DOGE tested the low point of 0.142 on 2024-11-03 again today, which should be considered a relatively strong support level.

I closed my short position on ADA today at a price of 0.94, making a small profit, which is essentially break-even after deducting fees.

ADA 4H
Overall, this trade is still quite good. After entering, there has basically been no floating loss. As for how much profit can be made, it just depends on luck, and the luck on this trade was slightly lacking.
The resistance level around 1.03 is still quite apparent. If there is a significant weakening at the resistance level later on, it might be possible to continue shorting.

From the trend of BTC, the current long and short battle is quite intense, with the bulls slightly ahead. However, from the candlestick perspective, there has been a noticeable pause today compared to yesterday. Friends who are going long should remember not to take on too heavy a position. This week's candlestick is largely overlapping; I personally tend to see the current market as a small range. However, I have already completed a short position and now need to rest.

I just opened a short position for ADA. The price is at 0.983
Today BTC rebounded quite a bit, the price briefly rose above 90k, altcoins are slightly weaker, after all, Bitcoin's market share is increasing.
I usually trade contracts infrequently, this order is also a small position for experimentation. Stop loss at 1.04.

ADA 4H$ADA

Yesterday, after I liquidated my HBAR position, the market instead experienced a strong rebound driven by news. The chart below represents my view on the current BTC trend. For now, I will just stand aside and observe. Additionally, in terms of contract data, the proportion of short positions held by large players is increasing. If I were to trade contracts, I would lean more towards a bearish outlook, as the bottom has not been sufficiently established, and the surge brought on by news is like a tide that can easily recede.

BTC 4H

BTC Contract Long/Short Ratio
The chart below is the HBAR 1H chart, which shows a clear three-push pattern, with the breakout momentum weakening and the adjustment period being insufficient. Therefore, if I am still holding a position now, I would definitely exit, and I might even consider reversing to short. However, I prefer to rest after making one or two trades. Resting and maintaining a flat position are very important aspects of the trading process.

For now, let's sell HBAR. If it tests the low again, I will still consider entering.
The reasons are as follows:
Just this afternoon and evening, I took a stroll around the square and found many saying that something big is coming, the reason being that another billion USDT was issued. There are also some bloggers who are frequently active in the square who have re-entered various altcoins. I think this is a very dangerous signal. Currently, it is advisable to buy strong coins like HBAR, while I believe that most other coins are not suitable for investment.

Many people saw the long lower shadow candlestick from the day before yesterday and felt that it bottomed out, and a major rebound was coming. However, it is just a high 1 candlestick after all, and to rise, there must at least be a bottoming process. During this bottoming process, can you be sure that the altcoins you bought can hold up? It should be noted that ETH has not only not reached high 1 at its current position, but it hasn't even seen a single bullish candlestick.

Today is Sunday, and the view count is likely still 0, but the article still needs to be written. What if someone reads it?
Currently, my investment portfolio shows that I am almost fully invested in HBAR, which has been performing well these past few days.
In my last article, I mentioned that ETH would test the 2100 position again. The day before yesterday, it dropped to a low of 2076, but quickly returned above 2100.

ETH 1D

The BTC 4H chart has previously shown a three-push pattern. If it continues to consolidate slightly and breaks upwards, it will form a rising trend with higher highs and higher lows. In the short term, I personally lean towards a bullish outlook.

Long time no see. After a month and a half, I'm back.
In the past month and a half, the market looks a bit bleak. I wonder if everyone’s money is still there. I took a break and basically didn't trade, which helped me avoid a disaster. Trading for the new year is about to start, and although my follower count is pitiful, I will still share some of my personal observations and thoughts in the square, which can be considered a complete trading journal. I performed poorly in trading in the second half of last year, with a significant drawdown of over 50%. I hope this year will be better.
Yesterday, BTC broke below the previous wave low, marking a successful decline in the range. Currently, it has paused. The drop on February 3 triggered a strong decline in altcoins, but the drop in altcoins over the past two days has not been that significant. Major altcoins may be more likely to return to the lows from the 3rd, essentially retesting that low. Moving forward, we should focus on observing the strength of the retest at that low.

The following figures are BTC.D 1H and ENA 1H. After I published my last article, BTC continued to rise for several hours, but it was not strong. It has not yet broken through 9w5, while BTC.D has been rising all the way, which means that the altcoins did not follow the rise, or at least not as strong as BTC, especially ENA, which was strong for only one hour and then immediately failed, so I left the market. If I still want to hold it now, I will only hold BTC. If BTC weakens again, the altcoins will probably be weaker. Let's continue to pay attention to the support level.

BTC$
THIS$

This weekend, BTC is oscillating within a narrow range on the 4H chart. There was just a downward breakthrough, but now it has returned to the range, which could likely be a turning point. I entered some positions in ENA at the 0.883 level. ENA has actually been quite weak in the past couple of days, weaker than DOGE and ADA. However, this is consistent with ENA's past performance, which has shown significant volatility.

The main reasons for entering the market additionally are two:
Compared to BTC, it hasn't broken the support level of 91,000. Since it hasn't broken, we trade within the range. The same applies to ENA, after all, it hasn't broken the 0.85 level.

After the recent decline, there have been frequent negative news reports. A large drop accompanied by bad news is a typical washout tactic, aimed at forcing retail investors to hand over their chips.

DOGE has followed BTC down for three consecutive days. Last night on the 1H chart, there were two relatively strong rebound candlesticks, but they were immediately negated, creating a new daily low. Currently, we are in a slight rebound, and this position is suitable for observation; neither long nor short positions are appropriate. From the 1H candlestick, it's evident that every attempt by the bulls to counterattack is quickly negated by the market, creating new lows. The strength of the current slight rebound candlestick is very limited, and the short-term trend is still bearish. I don't recommend going short because we are not far from the support levels at 0.305 and 0.3, and the profit potential is limited. My approach over the next few days is to wait for a false breakout of the support level below and then look for signals to enter a long position.

I have re-entered a long position in DOGE at a price of 0.386 for the following reasons:
BTC is starting to strengthen, and market sentiment is relatively greedy.

In the previous two instances where it fell below 0.376, it failed immediately. Currently, it has also adjusted to the middle track of the 4H BOLL, making a breakout likely.From the perspective of horizontal consolidation, this adjustment of DOGE has lasted long enough; the 4H has adjusted for 13 candlesticks. With sufficient time for accumulation, there is hope for a breakthrough of 0.4.$DOGE

I have exited my DOGE spot position.
Currently, BTC has formed a double top pattern on the 4-hour level, and DOGE is similar. There was a significant rapid drop last night, followed by a false rally that tested the position of 0.395 again. Although it broke through successfully, the closing price did not stay above 0.395 and instead continued to decline. Of course, it has not yet broken the neckline of the double top, and it can still be viewed as a horizontal consolidation at the top. However, the expected returns from holding positions are not significantly higher than the expected losses, which is my reason for exiting the position.

Today is the weekend, wishing everyone a happy weekend. The image below is a comparison chart of the synchronized movements of BTC and DOGE over 1 hour. I mentioned a long position for DOGE when it approached the 0.312 level, largely because DOGE was clearly stronger than BTC. Currently, my strategy for entering DOGE is to wait for BTC to complete its pullback and start rising again. Of course, DOGE is already at a high position, so everyone should be cautious about chasing long positions.

DOGE is about to break out. In my article yesterday, I mentioned that you can chase long positions after DOGE breaks through 0.345. It fluctuated in the range of 0.336-0.342 during the day today, and it feels like it will break out soon.

DOGE 4H

Below is the BTC.D 4H chart. BTC's market share continues to decline. It can be said that the current season is the altcoin season. Friends who play altcoins, don't wait until those friends and relatives who have never traded in cryptocurrencies come to discuss the cryptocurrency circle with you before entering the market. That is exactly the time to exit.
$BTC $DOGE

In the BTC daily chart, after a series of three high candles, a relatively strong bullish candle appeared. Currently, I do not recommend chasing long positions, and we need to pay attention to the daily closing situation. If the upper shadow is too long, it won't look good.

BTC 1D

During this time, DOGE has been performing stronger than BTC, which is why I previously recommended DOGE. DOGE has been in a sideways trend for nearly two weeks now, and I do not recommend chasing long positions at this point. A strong breakout above 0.35 could be considered for long positions. Since it has been in a sideways trend for a while, a true breakout is likely to occur. Be cautious with your position when placing buy orders in the support area of 0.305-0.31.BTC$ DOGE$

The following chart is the BTC 1H chart. Currently, it is moving in a channel. The strategy for the channel should be to sell high and buy low, avoiding chasing after breakouts. Last night, I mentioned that BTC was about to break the 99400 level, and indeed it did break this morning, but then quickly retraced. Altcoins are weaker, with almost no breakouts, only retraces. Some of the altcoins I hold were sold off last night, and I will look for opportunities to enter again later. Those trading altcoins shouldn't panic too much; pay close attention to the support level below this BTC channel. You can review it yourself; there is still potential for a rebound at the lower position of the channel. Keep paying attention.

The chart below is the BTC 4H chart. Last night, I reminded in my article that BTC has the risk of a pullback. Today, possibly because it's Christmas, the market is relatively calm. Currently, it is making a horizontal adjustment within a slight range. Compared to the testing of the upper resistance level of 99400 on December 21, today's trend is noticeably stronger. Once it breaks through that resistance level strongly, it is very likely to lead to a new trend. It has already been repeatedly testing that resistance level, and I estimate that a breakout is very close.

Apart from PHA's strong breakout again, the coins I hold have also experienced a slight pullback today. Then I noticed that TON is performing quite strongly, especially after BTC's pullback in the last hour, TON quickly rose again. Moreover, it has already broken through the high point of December 21. Friends who are interested can pay more attention to it.

The following figure is the BTC 1D and 4H chart. On the daily chart, BTC has already shown a high-level K-line, and on the 4-hour chart it has touched the Vegas moving average. At this moment, I would like to remind all readers that you can do some spot trading, and you can also hold the spot trading that has already entered the market, but it is best not to increase leverage. For those who have not entered the market, you can wait until this wave is over and then choose the opportunity to enter part of the position on the left side, or chase it in when the high-level K-line appears. The market will not explode so quickly, and it is always a good thing to be patient.

The following is the FTM 1H chart. Binance announced that FTM will be upgraded to SONIC(S). As a result, FTM has been falling all the way, losing all the gains from last night. I personally think this is a typical wash-out tactic. Holders should not be easily washed out like this. I personally entered the market at 0.95. Stay tuned.