Economic data may have unexpected surprises, and the FOMC meeting could be beneficial for the market to continue rising.
The U.S. Treasury Department mentioned six major reasons for the depreciation of Q1 dollar assets (stocks, currencies, bonds) in a report released last week (see Figure 1). Even though I believe three of these six factors are no longer an issue, the other two are what we need to pay attention to: the state of the U.S. economy and fiscal situation, the attractiveness of U.S. Treasuries as a safe-haven asset, and the situation regarding the trade war. To reiterate, the trade war has a short-term impact of stagflation, which will lead market expectations towards rising interest rates (inflation rise) and risk aversion (asset price decline). Recently, China's softened stance on the trade war and the first trade agreement will contribute to the market starting to improve, and I believe that economic data in May may bring unexpected surprises (going against those who are pessimistic about the economy; in fact, the market performed well last week)!
The impressive trader's long positions have fallen to a near one-month low... 🤨 And the long position concentration of $BTC has returned to a high level near April yesterday, and the bullish momentum has started to decline on the first day. Caution is still needed to chase long positions at the current level!
Additionally, the liquidation chart shows a large concentration of shorts between 98k and 100k, while the main long liquidation area is around 92k. Do you think the market will rise or fall after the NFP release? 🤨
The market is in recovery; if there is a pullback, stand on the buy side. Last week's economic data was decent, with April consumer confidence exceeding expectations and one-year inflation expectations declining. The market is slowly recovering from the panic of an economic recession. However, due to seasonal factors, a slight correction may occur in early May. Overall, BTC is still expected to rise steadily in the medium term.
Figure 1, U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Data
Investors should now pay more attention to the performance of employment data. As shown in Figure 1, there are signs of a rebound in initial unemployment claims. If employment data continues to perform poorly, the Federal Reserve will accelerate interest rate cuts, which is not a good signal (especially for the stock market). Trump's tariffs and the regular tax season have brought abundant income to the U.S. Treasury (see Figure 2), which can alleviate the upward pressure on the ten-year interest rate and can also be invested in the real economy. In the past week, RRP/TGA has also rebounded (as shown in Figure 3), so we need to pay attention to whether this will continue to decline.
The long exposure of short-term top traders has significantly increased, and the market sentiment remains pessimistic. The market state is somewhat similar to the early stages of a bull market. 🤫
$BTC Long positions are concentrated at high levels and are fluctuating, with whales standing on the bullish side, and bullish momentum continues. This week's strong $SUI long positions concentration (still relatively healthy), whales are inclined to go long, and bullish momentum continues to increase.
Tokens selected through the filter that have a data state similar to SUI before its rise include: $ATOM , COMP, IP, and API3, which can be continuously monitored!
The dollar is bottoming out, gold is down while Bitcoin is up, overall bullish in Q2
Figure 1, US PMI First, congratulations to friends who continue to follow the crypto space without fatigue. You should not have given up on the market yet?! 😆 This week, BTC rebounded significantly from 74k to 94k. For those in the car, you can take a breather, but we still need to cautiously welcome the turbulent year of 2025. I still believe that cryptocurrencies will outperform the stock market in 2025! In the stock market, you need to worry about the tariff war, while cryptocurrencies do not face tariffs, and there are many favorable policies. Tariffs are more destructive to market sentiment.
Yesterday, the concentration of bullish positions reached a new high at 22,642,991,531 but has since declined. Currently, although the BTC price is rising again, the concentration of bullish positions has not followed suit year-on-year, which is a potential warning sign for bulls 🚨. When prices rise but the concentration of bullish positions decreases, it indicates that whales may not be interested in increasing long positions (possibly starting to take profits or shorting)...
Therefore, it is crucial to pay attention to the data changes tonight. If the price rises again tonight while the concentration of positions continues to weaken, it would be a strong signal to short. Conversely, if the price drops while the concentration of positions continues to weaken, that would also be significant.
For bulls to continue their healthy upward attack, it would be best if the concentration of bullish positions can continue to climb, or if they first undergo a consolidation correction... This warrants ongoing attention!
What are some high win-rate trading strategies?! I found that by observing the changes in chips and prices, one can enter before the tokens surge or plummet...😀🤔
Generally speaking, $BTC is the best to observe and the easiest; here I share three altcoins:
#ALCH : Today there is a good trading opportunity with divergence between chips and prices. The chart is quite obvious; after the price plunged, the concentration of bullish chips (green bars) did not increase but decreased, so a bearish outlook is warranted!
#OM also presented a similar bullish chip divergence trading opportunity on April 9, with a significant price surge (controlled by the major players), while the concentration of bullish chips (green bars) dropped significantly, possibly indicating that the major players are either escaping or further positioning for short selling, so a bearish outlook is more appropriate!
#AUCTİON : There were also two similar trading signals in April; after the price continuously broke lower, the concentration of bearish chips did not increase again, indicating that the major players may have started to go long or are taking profits on short positions, so it’s time to position for a long!
As long as you can grasp every opportunity of divergence between chips and prices, making money is not difficult; the difference lies in whether you continuously pay attention and spend time understanding the data! 📊 Additionally, we can further analyze how the chips have changed 👇🏻 (Are the whales actually trading?!)
For example, taking @MANTRA OM as an example, we can observe market traders' movements by combining chip concentration + long-short strength. On April 9, when the price and chips diverged, the major players clearly stimulated retail traders to chase long by pushing up the price; we can see a large volume of buying (the bullish strength shows green bars) in the long-short strength chart, followed by a decrease in chip concentration... the price starts to waterfall 📉...
According to my experience, in the past, as long as similar situations like the above are found and acted upon, the win rate is very high! I hope these shares are helpful to you!
$BTC The concentration of long positions showed a divergence yesterday and has quickly declined since then. It continues to drop, with whales more inclined to short. Although bearish momentum is continuously decreasing, this could be a common phase of a bearish trend towards the end, testing support/low points for the second time.
The liquidation map shows that the largest long liquidation position for BTC is between 81k and 80k, while the largest short liquidation position is between 87k and 88k. Today's strong performers include decentralized exchanges and payment sectors, while weaker performers include modular and $TON ecosystem, among others.
Top traders on Blave currently have bullish positions in $SOL , ETH, and other mainstream coins, while bearish positions include VINE, AVAX, etc.
The market is likely to challenge recent highs?! There is a chance, but be aware that if it fails, there may be a risk of a pullback!⚠️
$BTC Bullish positions are becoming more concentrated, whales are leaning towards shorting, and bearish momentum continues to decline. The next focus should be on whether the concentration of bullish positions can continue to rise as BTC price increases (because it has already reached a recent high level), otherwise, there will be a divergence signal 🚨...
By analyzing the market trends and tokens with significant price increases, we look for strong cryptocurrencies. Comparing data with $ANIME and $GMX , ANIME shows an upward trend in bullish position concentration, with whales leaning towards the long side, while GMX shows a continuous decline in bullish position concentration, with whales leaning towards shorting. Therefore, it can be concluded that ANIME performs better than GMX in terms of data.
In terms of funding rates, we also find that both ANIME and GMX have shown relatively high negative funding rates, indicating that whales intend to raise ANIME to liquidate ANIME short positions, while whales are taking the opposite action with GMX.🤨 Therefore, these two cryptocurrencies are also good options for long/short trading... keep an eye on them!
$OM A rapid decline of nearly 90% in a short time, the main reason is widely debated. Can we discover warning signs through data before the crash? Indeed, some anomalies were found on the blave.org data dashboard before the crash...👇🏻
Currently
token data... - Chip Concentration: The state of short chip concentration indicates that more short chips are held by large players. - Whale Alert: During the decline, the market OI continued to increase, and whales opened short positions. - Squeeze Momentum: Original small short momentum has strengthened.
- Long and Short Strength: A large amount of short strength (potentially combined with long liquidations).
"De-dollarization influenced by policies is a recession smoke screen; deviations caused by short-term shocks will quickly return to repair." The market has welcomed a week of reversal (almost got caught again 🤦). The pessimistic voices about the market have not diminished due to Trump's 90-day suspension of tariffs. Whether Trump’s policy strategy gamble can ultimately 'extend' the influence of dollar hegemony or accelerate its decline is really hard to say. We can only continue to monitor which way the seesaw in this changing situation will tilt suddenly. However, I believe that at least this year, the market will not enter a recession, and there are still good trends ahead.
After this week's market decline, aside from $BTC performing relatively well, several sectors have also shown relatively strong resistance to decline, such as the $BNB ecosystem and the $TON ecosystem. Whether these strong altcoin sectors will lead the overall market in stopping the decline and recovering is something we can pay attention to.
Among them, in the TON ecosystem, $X $BANANA has shown strong performance, while in the BNB ecosystem, there's $TST $DEGO ...
Today, BTC short positions are stable, whales lean towards shorting, and bullish momentum is declining, with similar data for ETH. It seems the market is waiting for a clear direction after the liberation day on April 2.
As I shared over the weekend, we have now entered a bullish phase, and I am more inclined to look for long opportunities. Below, I have selected a few cryptocurrencies based on the logic of strong chip turnover in the last 8 hours and whale positions. Please pay attention to: $LAYER $PENDLE $PIXEL
‘The performance in March is mediocre as it approaches its end, but there should be a decent market after the tariff implementation in April; a bull market requires patience.’
Figure 1, Trade Policy Uncertainty Index
The liberation day predicted by Trump is about to arrive alongside PMI and non-farm data. As of this week, global trade policy uncertainty has soared to a mid-month high (see Figure 1). The uncertainty in policy remains a source of pressure in the risk market. According to calculations, if Trump implements the largest tariff measures next week (the average US tariff rate will increase by 28%, as shown in Figure 2), it will lead to a 4% decrease in US GDP and a nearly 2.5% increase in prices, and this impact may last for two to three years. What we need to know is that tariff policies have negatively impacted the market since Trump took office. Tariffs will raise the prices of related goods but are only a one-time adjustment, not a continuous increase in prices. It is expected that the market's uncertainty will begin to decline after liberation day.
I don't know if those watching have avoided this wave of decline... the next turning point is coming soon, and everyone can continue to pay attention!
Currently, the short-term $BTC bullish chip concentration is showing a downward trend, the bullish momentum is still there. If the market can bottom out this weekend, the most likely scenario will be that the chips first turn bearish today, and then, without affecting the momentum (the price does not drop too much), wait for the chips to correct while the bullish momentum continues to advance.... Let's keep watching!
‘The Federal Reserve stabilizes market confidence, most investors are waiting for the uncertainty to resolve in April’
Figure 1, US TGA vs ONRRP
Last week, the FOMC once again released positive signals. The FED will gradually reduce the pace of balance sheet contraction starting April 1, especially lowering the monthly limit for reinvesting U.S. Treasuries maturing at $25 billion to $5 billion, while maintaining MBS. Overall, the pace of balance sheet reduction has decreased by $20 billion (equivalent to releasing $20 billion in liquidity), which also suggests that the balance sheet reduction is about to end. As shown in Figure 1, TGA accounts continue to release liquidity, while ONRRP has slightly rebounded, with overall net liquidity performance increasing, which is acceptable.
Today's data of $BTC is good and it is expected that there is still room for upward movement. The two coins $RED $POLYX appeared from the explosion warning signal 😎.
At present, POLYX data performance is stronger than RED. The concentration of long chips has risen to a recent high. The whale alarm shows that there is a large amount of abnormal OI reduction. It is speculated that it may be the closing of short positions. Combined with the long and short forces, it shows that most traders are actively shorting. POLYX has the opportunity to further go short.
As for #RedStone , the concentration of short positions has decreased, accompanied by a large reduction in abnormal OI. The situation is similar to that of POLYX... You can pay attention to it and see the long opportunities!
‘The Federal Reserve stabilizes market confidence, most investors are waiting for the uncertainty to resolve in April’
Figure 1, US TGA vs ONRRP
Last week, the FOMC once again released positive signals. The FED will gradually reduce the pace of balance sheet contraction starting April 1, especially lowering the monthly limit for reinvesting U.S. Treasuries maturing at $25 billion to $5 billion, while maintaining MBS. Overall, the pace of balance sheet reduction has decreased by $20 billion (equivalent to releasing $20 billion in liquidity), which also suggests that the balance sheet reduction is about to end. As shown in Figure 1, TGA accounts continue to release liquidity, while ONRRP has slightly rebounded, with overall net liquidity performance increasing, which is acceptable.
The market direction has weakened, $BTC funds have shifted to a bearish concentration since Trump's speech, currently the concentration of bearish funds has slightly decreased, whales are leaning towards neutral positions, and bearish momentum continues to shrink. The liquidation volume for BTC long positions is relatively large, with liquidation zones concentrated around 80 ~ 83k.
Today's sector $TON performed better, while the Base sector performed worse. #VIRTUAL is a relatively strong token today, similar data performance tokens can be monitored.