The first forecast turned out to be quite good. Let's see what happens next? š”
On October 25, 2024, I highlighted a rather promising project $TIA .
In the analysis, a very accurate forecast was made about the price at the end of 2024. According to the forecast, the price of $TIA was supposed to reach $8, but it went even further and reached $8.8.
After reaching an intermediate peak, the asset's price began to fall parallel to the overall trend #CRYPTO_MARKET .
According to the previous analysis, the downward trend lasted almost 6 months. At the moment, it has been ongoing for 4.5 months.
Since the market has properties of repeating cycles and regularities, I expect that in this case, the next intermediate peak #TIAš„š„š„ will be in the price range of $4 - 4.4 and this will happen in June-July of this year.
After the de facto declaration of an economic war, starting from 02.04.2025, the largest stock market in the world, namely the USA, began to wobble.
As clearly seen in the graph, the stock index #NASDAQ on 08.04.2025 has already reached a one-year minimum and hit the mark $ 15,248. This means that from this minimum to the present time, the index has changed in price by only +6.5%.
And what events are happening in the parallel reality? At this time, #CRYPTO_MARKET after a brief wobble began to gain momentum, and at the moment the market locomotive $BTC has already risen by 22.2%.
The assertion that #BTC becomes an asset for hedging, or the more widespread assertion that $BTC is digital gold, is increasingly approaching reality.
An obvious example of this can be seen in the events of recent weeks. We are currently living in a, to put it mildly, not very calm world. Almost every day, phenomena occur in the world (especially in the financial world) that were previously hard to imagine. For this reason, we can confidently assume that this historical period can be divided into two parts: before Trump, and after Trump.
Every time $TRUMP announces a new tariff or restriction, the stock market in the USA and around the world shakes like a wooden boat in a storm.
In recent days, as well as today, $BTC demonstrates admirable resilience in the face of a tornado. This was not possible in the world before Trump, as at that time #BTCāļø had almost the same correlation with the major stock indices (NASDAQ, S&P 500, DOW JONES), while now in some places it is even the opposite.
Starting from 2013, the number of cryptocurrencies has only been increasing.
As shown in the table, over the past nearly 10 years, the number has increased by several thousand times.
As the number of cryptocurrencies grows, various cases of scams, cyberattacks involving asset theft, manipulations, etc., have also emerged. Without violating the presumption of innocence of anyone, it is not excluded that in the latest high-profile cases and in the near future upcoming cases, elements of "self-robbery" may appear.
Technologies are evolving at a tremendous pace, and over time it becomes increasingly difficult to combat such phenomena. No one is insured against such cases, but in order to somewhat reduce losses, it is recommended to conduct at least a minimal analysis before investing in any asset and answer the following questions:
- who are the founders?
- where can this asset be used?
- are there any unique qualities?
- on which CEXs is it listed?
- which companies do they collaborate with?
And this list is far from exhaustive.
In the end, a mass reduction in the number of cryptocurrencies is not far off.
The goals are not always clear to the crypto community.
Literally two days before the inauguration of Mr. Trump, news came out about the launch of his official memecoin #TRUMP .
To say that this is just a method for quickly accumulating billions of US dollars is to say nothing, it is very trivial and natural.
If the President of the world's first economy creates his official coin, whether it is a meme or not, this means that a group of creators and beneficiaries carefully studied the consequences, both positive and even possible negative consequences for the image of the head of the United States.
From here, we can say that this project is not short-term, in any case, it will exist for at least the next 4 years š.
In theory, there may be an idea that $TRUMP was created as a long-term project, so that it would enter the top crypto assets that could turn into real payment systems in the future.
According to my calculations, $BTC will finish this cycle of decline in the range of $87,000-89,000 within two days.
After that, there will be several days of calm, and then a PUMP š again until breaking the $100,000 mark.
And who said that #altseason has already started? Nothing of the sort. These are just short-term glimmers. The season will start when #BTCāļø calms down a bit and takes a pause somewhere in the range of $105,000-110,000.
Currently, the dominance of $BTC is almost 57%, and during altseason it will drop to about 44-47%.
It seems that recently there is a "World Championship in Financial Supports" š
Immediately after yesterday's announcement of decisions to lower interest rates by the Fed Reserve and BOE (Bank of England), it has just been announced that the Chinese government has decided to approve another support package for the economy. The program involves refinancing debts of local government bodies for nearly $ 1.4 trillion. And this is in a situation where such measures have already been taken several times in China since the beginning of this year.
It's hard to say who will take "first place," but we can confidently assume that huge amounts of money will flow into the global economy. Without having finished the fight against inflation, global central banks will face even greater inflation.
But not everything is so bleak.
Before the impending wave, one can take advantage of the opportunities of crypto assets, which in the current situation have enormous growth potential.
It seems that there has been a certain lack of attention from participants #cryptoindustry and the media towards $ETH lately.
By studying the cryptocurrency chart #Ethereumā , we find that since April 2017 the asset has demonstrated 2 bullish cycles, each lasting from 1.5 to almost 2 years.
As the chart shows, at the moment $ETH is again in a bullish cycle, which started in October of last year.
Since we already have historical data on previous cycles, we can assume that this cycle will last at least 2 years. This means that the third cycle will last at least until the first half of 2025.
As practice has shown, my publications already contain several accurate forecasts. So, I have every right to assure that this forecast will come true as well. š
On 10/19/2024 I wrote that there is a high probability that #BTCš„š„š„š„š„ will reach a new ATH at the end of October or at the beginning of November.
#BTCāļø after almost seven months of range fluctuation made a breakthrough and reached a new #ATHBTC $ 75,361.
The main reasons for this are mainly fundamental factors, certain cycles and in addition there is a small share of external factors.
In recent days, the global news feed is literally teeming with news about the correlations between #cryptomarket and the main political event of the last four years.
Undoubtedly, the US President Election 2024 is the main political event and naturally affects the financial and macroeconomic environment of the whole world.
But the question arises, does this also apply to #cryptoindustry ?
We think NOT, and that some "experts" and media resources are biasedly exaggerating the correlation between cryptocurrency prices and election results.
Both candidates have expressed support for the crypto industry in almost equally positive terms (not counting the more theatrical methods of one of the candidates). That is, it can be assumed that any outcome will not be negative.
The 24-hour chart $BTC shows that most participants in the crypto market have reached this conclusion as well. The chart is gradually leveling out towards an increase.
So, gentlemen awaiting #bullrun , we suggest not to deviate from the already chosen course.
We will show originality (sorry if it sounds immodest š) and at this moment we will not touch on the rise $BTC š. Not to mention that in several of my previous statements I have repeatedly asserted that the following is coming #BTCBULLRUN š„š„š„ and #BTC_NEW_ATH .
Moreover, in the last 24 hours there has been an enormous amount written about the growth, with various phrasings and interpretations.
In this swirling news storm, my attention was drawn to a piece of news that at first glance seems unworthy of particular attention and not subject to fundamental analysis, but rather from the realm of conspiracy theory.
But that wasn't the case.
As reported by the news portal U. Today, after a long "slumber" almost 48 hours ago, three $BTC wallets suddenly became active (the last time they were active was in 2010-2012). The first two hold almost $1 million and $2 million respectively, while the third holds nearly $53 million. Here the key phrase is "48 hours ago," as on the calendar this corresponds to 27.10.2024, at which time Bitcoin was comfortably hovering around $67,000.
Their "sudden appearance" will further increase the adrenaline for the already heated #Cryptocommunity .
Analyzing the chart of the last 30 days, we will see the following.
At the beginning of October, $BTC barely formed an upward trend and reached $ 66,000 after almost two months of decline. But then Iran struck Israel. And in fears that the world was waiting for the "Third World War", most market participants began to sell in panic. This disproved the thesis that the cryptocurrency #1 is an antidote to turbulent situations.
The price subsequently fell to almost $ 59,000 (-11%).
Almost the same situation took place last weekend, when Israel struck Iran in response. Frankly speaking, in this case the fall was not so significant (-4.5%), but the growth rate has clearly slowed down.
From today $BTC has started another rise. We hope that in this cycle the militantly minded parties will let off a little steam (at least there are some grounds for this) and this will give $BTC a chance to reach a new peak.
P.S.
By the way, it seems to me that, over time, #BTCāļø acquires a kind of immunity to such stressful situations, and gradually some prerequisites are formed for turning into a real safe heaven.
This is the first modular DA (data availability) network that safely scales depending on the number of users, which allows each user to easily launch their own #blockchain . This opens up new horizons for developers to realize unrealized opportunities.
There is obvious huge potential in terms of turning $TIA into a real tool.
Studying the one-year chart, it turns out that after the ICO (Initial Coin Offering) in October 2023, $TIA began its ascent and in February 2024 conquered ATH $ 20.91. In February-March #CryptoMarket was generally on the rise. After that, the general market experienced a correction and by May of this year, the price of CELESTIA fell almost four times to $ 4.81.
Since the end of May, a consolidation period began and the token price began to fluctuate in the range of $ 7.34 and $ 3.7. The described phenomenon has been going on for almost 150 days.
Comparing the above facts, we came to the conclusion that there is a high probability that by the end of this year the price may rise to $ 8.
A real parade of releases of financial indicators of a number of major corporations will begin on October 29.
Among them are Alphabet (GOOGLE), VISA, PayPal, Microsoft, Meta Platforms (Facebook), Apple, Amazon, Mastercard, etc.
The figures of Coinbase and MicroStrategy deserve special attention.
1. Coinbase is one of the largest platforms in the world for transactions with crypto assets. The company was founded in 2012 in the USA. At the moment, according to version #CoinMarketCap , Coinbase ranks second in the world (the undisputed leader of the list #Binance! ) among cryptocurrency exchanges. The average daily trading volume is almost $ 3 billion, and the liquidity ratio is 783 (Binance has 903).
It is obvious that Coinbase is one of the systemically important companies and positive results will give powerful impetus to the growth of cryptocurrencies in general.
2. MicroStrategy is an American company in the field of business consulting, cloud services, software for increasing business efficiency, etc. The company was founded in 1989.
At the moment, it is one of the largest institutional holders of $BTC . As of the beginning of October, the company has 252,220 $BTC . At today's prices, this is almost $ 17 billion.
Let's talk briefly about the unique project #Bittensor .
What is it? It is an open source protocol (Open Source Protocol) that supports a decentralized Machine Learning network based on the blockchain. It is not for nothing that Bittensor itself calls itself "The First Neural Internet in the World". This is one of the few crypto projects integrated with AI.
The Bittensor token #TAO shows very interesting dynamics.
Studying the one-year chart, we find out that $TAO is one of the few crypto assets (at least from the top 100 list) that after the peak of March of this year, and almost half a year of decline and downtime, since September it began a sharp growth, almost doubling (#doublerise ).
This breakthrough is directly related to the recovery of the bullish trend of one of the giant companies in the AI āāsphere, such as #NVIDIA . In the same period, it showed growth of almost 24%.
In our opinion, there is no doubt that the AI āāindustry as a whole is still in its early stages of development and there are big events ahead.
A lot has happened in the world over the past 90 days, but #BTCā seems to have a mind of its own.
From July 29 to September 28, crypto #1 conquered 3 intermediate peaks.
The period between the first and second peaks was 26 days, and between the second and third 33 days. After the next peaks, the time of falls during these periods was 8 and 11 days, respectively.
So far, in the current third interval, the minimum price is $ 59,264 and if this remains unchanged, then according to the logic of the above calculations, with a high probability, the next peak can be expected at the end of October or at the beginning of November.
It is possible that this could be the new #ATH $BTC .
Studying the 90-day chart #STRK (StarkNet) reveals the following. Starting from mid-August, the chart shows 4 intermediate peaks. The interval between each of the first three peaks is 12-13 days, between the third and fourth peaks 20 days, and the last one 17 days.
And this is taking into account that during the above-mentioned time, many different events occurred, from macroeconomic to military.
There is a lot of talk about whether $BTC will reach ATH or collapse?
ā ļø We won't be lying if we say that there are certain risks. Let's list the main factors:
- military-political instability in different parts of the world, - fears of recession - strict regulation by state regulators
š¢ And what are the main prerequisites for growth?
- #HalvingBTC - improvement and increase in efficiency #ETHecosystem - increase in demand for crypto assets as a means of payment - increase in demand from institutional players - stimulation of monetary policy by the world's major central banks
As a result of the last factor, the world money supply (M2 indicator) will increase significantly and in the near future will exceed $95 trillion.
The graph is indicative.
The correlation of the price #BTCāļø and the amount of money supply is positive.
The last few months have particularly demonstrated that, in addition to financial and macroeconomic indicators, #CryptoMarket is strongly influenced by geopolitical tensions and military actions. While a large number of financial experts and those who call themselves such, constantly trumpet that #BTCā " data-hashtag="#BTCā" class="tag">#BTCā is digital gold and that it is resistant to various shocks, the behavior of $BTC proves us otherwise.
Desperate fluctuations of $BTC have been going on for a long time. Technical analysis of the one-year chart shows that since February of this year until now #1 cryptocurrency has been fluctuating in the range of $ 73,750 (upper mark) and $ 53,949 (lower mark).
Historically, such a long belt of fluctuations for $BTC in such a range has not been. So what is the reason for such an anomaly?
In our opinion, two main factors contribute to this.
1. #Halving2024 , like all phenomena, has a kind of inertia and time lag. So far, miners and market participants are in this inertia.
2. Expectations for an increase in the money supply. As a result of the weakening of the tight monetary policy of global central banks, cheaper and more accessible money will flow into the global economy. But since short-term monetary policy instruments act for a certain period of time (according to various estimates, from 3 months to 1 year), the multiplier effect will make itself felt already at the end of this year.
Accordingly, according to our forecasts, #BTCāļø will reach a new ATH at the end of 2024 or in the first quarter of 2025.