Why is the global money supply M2 increasing despite high rates? 🤯
We have all seen the correlation between the M2 money supply and the BTC chart. I have shown you this multiple times and explained the logic behind such a correlation, and how liquidity flows into financial markets with a delay. But a few days ago, I received an interesting question: why is the money supply increasing if the U.S. has an aggressive credit/money policy? Doesn't everything depend on the U.S.?
At first glance, this is a paradox: the Fed keeps rates high, the EU is tightening liquidity - yet the global M2 continues to grow. But we are considering the GLOBAL money supply, so there are other players involved.
And that is China; this country is the main driver. They are massively printing liquidity through cheap loans, refinancing banks, and stimulating the economy. And Japan has not stopped QE; it controls bond yields and floods the banking system with money.
We have figured this out, but in the U.S., liquidity is also increasing despite Powell's aggressive policy. Although the Fed is not printing, the government continues to inject trillions into the economy due to record deficits, through subsidies, wars, and production.
So does $BTC indicate growth due to China? Interesting, isn't it? ❤️ #
#CryptoClarityAct The Republican Senators of the USA have released a bill titled "The Act on Appropriate Financial Innovation", which is based on the CLARITY Act passed by the House last week. The bill introduces clear regulatory frameworks for digital assets, including a new classification of "additional assets" for tokens that are not securities, and the proposed DA Regulation, which would exempt certain token sales from registration with the SEC. 💬Considering that the Senate bill introduces new asset classifications and regulatory exemptions, how might this affect the future of crypto innovation in the USA, and what challenges may arise during its implementation?
#TrumpBitcoinEmpire As the elections in the USA approach, one of the hottest topics in politics and cryptocurrencies is the growing speculation regarding Donald Trump's position on Bitcoin. Once skeptical, Trump now seems to lean towards crypto narratives, possibly considering Bitcoin as part of a broader financial strategy. Some even believe that he may promote a 'Bitcoin empire' to challenge central bank control and attract younger, tech-savvy voters. Whether it's campaign contributions in cryptocurrency or policies supporting Bitcoin, the connection between Trump and Bitcoin could shape the next era of digital finance.
Yesterday's long positions I mentioned came true — and I continue to expect growth up to 120k. However, I personally couldn't enter the trade: 🔹 the TVH was given at night while I was sleeping 🔹 moreover — I hit a stop before the upward movement
💚 The long movement is still active: the shorts and asks remain balanced, supporting growth. ❗️At the same time, there is a small chance of a correction — and this could be an ideal opportunity for those who also missed the entry.
🕐 Short anomalies were forming on the 1H 🕓 On the candlestick chart — the price is testing the 4H FVG 🧭 There is a likelihood we might go lower following the 1H swing
📊 On the clusters, there is a zone of anomalously traded volume, which previously provided an impulse for growth. So if a correction occurs — that could be a good entry point.
📈 Tomorrow at 3:00 PM the CPI (Consumer Price Index) will be released — a key indicator of inflation in the US. ▪️ Current value: 2.4% ▪️ Forecast: 2.6%
🤔 Interesting situation: 🔹 Analysts expect inflation to rise 🔹 Trump in his speeches convinces everyone that inflation is falling, and Powell is wrong
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What does this mean?
📉 If the data comes out worse than expected: ▪️ Trump is wrong ▪️ The economy looks weaker: unemployment is rising, GDP is declining, and inflation is back up ▪️ This could dampen market sentiment
💰 But at the same time: ▪️ Poor macro data is a reason for the Fed to cut rates faster ▪️ Possible start of QE ▪️ Part of the negativity is already priced in
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🎯 For me personally, the most important thing is the GDP data that will come out later this month. It will get even more interesting.
❤️ If this was helpful — hit the heart! I will write more 😉$BTC
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Не виглядає так, що BTC піде з актуальних на ath, перед цим хочу побачити корекцію.
Зверху барів на кластерному аналізі бачимо що проходили фіксації, на скріні виділив зону від якої можемо побачити реакцію.
Обʼєм ордерів на продаж все ще сильно переважає обʼєм ордерів на покупку. На свічному графіку після зняття 4h свінга, сформували 4h fvg, від якого би очікував реакцію.$BTC
📈 The market does not forgive emotions — only discipline and a clear plan lead to results. I joined to test my skills, step out of my comfort zone, and compete for a share of 10,000 USDC 💰 Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. The stakes are high, but the thrill from each accurate trade is even higher!$USDC
🔄 If you are in the game too — share your experience in the comments. May the smartest win! #TradersLeague
💰 At 13:00 there was a drop of 10000 CESS (~27$) requiring 170 points but only FCFS, and it deducted 15 for participation, I successfully missed it $SAHARA well, that's okay... ________________________________________________________________________