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Ethereum Dynamics $ETH
- ETH Faces Pressure After Rebound: Currently priced at $2,527, up over 40% from the early May low, but short-term technical indicators show a risk of a pullback. Ethereum ETF inflows have turned positive, with BlackRock's ETHE seeing a net inflow of $57.6 million in a single day.
- Altcoin Season Approaches: Bitcoin's dominance has dropped from 65% to 62%, with funds rotating into ETH and altcoins, and some Meme coins and GameFi tokens showing active performance.

$USDC Bitcoin Market Trends and Expectations
- Bitcoin High Volatility: BTC is currently priced at approximately $103,140, with an intraday fluctuation range of $101,430 to $104,180. Technical analysis shows a demand for short-term adjustment, but institutional capital continues to flow in. BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF has seen a net inflow for 20 consecutive days, accumulating over $5 billion.
- Institutions are Bullish: JPMorgan predicts that Bitcoin's performance in the second half of the year will outperform gold, supported by policies in several U.S. states (such as New Hampshire and Arizona allowing public funds to invest in Bitcoin). Matrixport analysis suggests that Bitcoin is likely to break its historical high (of $106,000), with the trend potentially continuing into the summer.

On May 14, 2023, the Ethereum Foundation announced the launch of the "Trillion Dollar Security Initiative," aimed at elevating the security of Ethereum to the level of a "civilization-scale" infrastructure capable of supporting the global economy, allowing billions of users to securely store assets worth over a thousand dollars, and enabling institutions to host over a trillion dollars in value within a single smart contract.

The initiative is divided into three parts: a comprehensive assessment of the security posture of the Ethereum technology stack, implementation of high-priority fixes and long-term improvements, and optimization of security standards communication mechanisms. The project is co-led by protocol security head Fredrik Svantes and management team member Josh Stark, with support from blockchain security experts.

As the scale of assets on the Ethereum chain continues to grow (with RWA accounting for 58%), this upgrade may further solidify its position as the most secure blockchain and promote institutional adoption.

In 2025, the application of stablecoins in daily payment fields has significantly increased, especially in cross-border transactions and retail consumption. Businesses are widely adopting dollar stablecoins like USDC and USDT to pay salaries, reducing the cost of cross-border payments and enhancing efficiency, with Latin America and Southeast Asia becoming major adopters due to inflation and banking restrictions. The retail industry is also accelerating the integration of stablecoin payments, with merchants in places like Seoul and Milan supporting stablecoin consumption, while the UAE and Singapore are further incentivizing merchants to accept digital currencies through policies.

The improvement of the regulatory environment further promotes adoption, with clear regulations being introduced in regions such as the European Union and the United States, enhancing market confidence. At the same time, institutions like MetaComp have launched innovative payment platforms such as StableX, optimizing stablecoin foreign exchange settlements. As traditional payment giants like Visa and Mastercard integrate stablecoins, their transaction volumes have surpassed traditional card networks, becoming an important part of the global financial system. Stablecoins are evolving from crypto assets into core tools for everyday payments.

#BinancePizza Why I am optimistic about BTC

1. Scarcity and Anti-Inflation: The total supply of Bitcoin is 21 million, with an annual inflation rate of less than 1.8%. Under the continuous loose monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, it has become the "digital gold" to combat the devaluation of fiat currency.

2. Institutional Capital Inflow: After the approval of the spot ETF in 2024, institutions such as BlackRock and Fidelity will significantly increase their holdings, with ETF holdings exceeding 1.13 million BTC, enhancing market liquidity and price stability.

3. Halving Cycle Effect: After the halving in April 2024, the supply of new coins will decrease. Historical patterns show that 12-18 months after halving often leads to a bull market, with 2025 being in this critical window period.

4. Global Risk Aversion Demand: Geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties (such as dollar fluctuations and tariff policies) are driving funds into BTC, and its decentralized nature enhances its appeal as a safe haven.

5. Policy and Technological Innovation: Several states in the U.S. are promoting the "Bitcoin Reserve Act," the Lightning Network improves payment efficiency, and the expansion of Layer 2 ecosystems (such as Ordinals NFT) further broadens application scenarios.

In summary, driven by factors such as scarcity, institutional recognition, cyclical patterns, and technological evolution, BTC still has strong growth potential in 2025.

Continuing to be optimistic!

#交易故事 #交易经验

On April 2, 2025, the "Stablecoin Accountability Act" was passed by the U.S. House Financial Services Committee. This act establishes a clear regulatory framework for the issuance and operation of payment stablecoins, aiming to ensure transparency, accountability, and consumer protection while promoting the use of stablecoins in the digital economy. The act defines payment stablecoins, requires issuers to obtain licenses, and mandates that they hold equivalent reserve assets. Additionally, the act stipulates the reporting obligations of issuers, the supervisory powers of regulatory agencies, and penalties for violations.

In 2025, the U.S. accelerated its cryptocurrency legislation, with the Trump administration leading several key policies:
1. The "Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act": Incorporates 200,000 BTC (6% of the circulation) seized by the judiciary into the national permanent reserve, implementing a "zero-cost increase" mechanism to enhance Bitcoin's "digital gold" attribute.
2. The "Stablecoin Accountability Act": Promotes the integration of stablecoins with the banking system, requiring 100% dollar reserves and real-time audits, expected to complete legislation by August 2025.
3. Repeal of IRS DeFi Rules: Signed the bill in April, canceling the mandatory tax reporting requirements for DeFi platforms introduced during the Biden era, seen as a significant victory for the industry.
4. State Legislative Divergence: 24 states had proposed cryptocurrency reserve bills, but states like Florida withdrew due to risk concerns, leaving only 19 states still advancing.

The U.S. is building a globally leading cryptocurrency regulatory framework through federal and state collaboration while strengthening its digital financial discourse.

In May 2025, Bitcoin broke through the $100,000 mark. Amidst the market frenzy, some became rich while others faced liquidation. One trader, using 20x leverage on DEGEN tokens, lost 50% of their position due to chasing prices and panic selling; another investor shorted with 500x leverage when BTC surpassed $100,000, ultimately facing liquidation and leaving behind a declaration for rights protection citing 'exchange manipulation.' Meanwhile, Meitu Inc. suffered over 300 million yuan in cumulative losses due to high-position cryptocurrency speculation in 2021, dragging its stock price down to 'penny stock' levels.

Liang Xi once made $1 million in a single day by shorting ETH with 100x leverage during a market crash, but most contract players find it hard to escape a zero-sum fate—the high leverage, unpredictable market conditions, and emotional trading make it a 'negative sum game.' Recently, Coinbase acquired Deribit for $2.9 billion, betting on the explosion of the crypto options market, but the industry remains fraught with black swan risks.

In just 30 days, the cryptocurrency world showcased both wealth myths and heartbreaking lessons, confirming the brutal rule of 'nine deaths and one survival.'

Is Bitcoin (BTC) expected to break through $120,000? Institutional divergence intensifies, key factors to watch

Bitcoin (BTC) has recently been fluctuating around the $100,000 mark, and there is a clear divergence in the market regarding whether it can break through $120,000. Bullish investors believe the following factors will drive the price up:
1. Favorable policies: The Trump administration may advance a strategic Bitcoin reserve plan, and some states have legislated support for cryptocurrency reserves, boosting institutional confidence;
2. Halving effect: Historical data shows that explosive price increases usually occur 12-18 months after halving, with May 2025 potentially being a key window;
3. ETF capital inflows: BlackRock and other spot Bitcoin ETFs saw record net inflows in a single week, showing significant institutional support.

However, bears warn of risks:
- High leverage liquidation pressure: If it falls below the $80,000 liquidity gap, it could trigger a chain reaction of liquidations;
- Uncertainty of inflation and interest rates: Delayed expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts may suppress the performance of risk assets.

Short-term trends may depend on macro data (such as CPI) and the implementation of policies; if it breaks through the $105,000 resistance level, the $120,000 target will become more feasible.

Since February 2025, the United States has announced a 10% tariff increase on China and plans to impose a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico, triggering global trade tensions. China quickly retaliated by imposing tariffs of 10%-15% on U.S. coal, liquefied natural gas, and other products. Economists predict that this move may drag down U.S. GDP growth by 0.1-0.8 percentage points and raise PCE inflation by 0.2 percentage points.

The countries most severely impacted are Canada and Mexico, with their GDP potentially declining by 1.26%-1.97%. U.S. automaker Ford warned that long-term tariffs will lead to "billions of dollars in profit evaporating." Analysts believe that although this move will increase fiscal revenue in the short term, it may exacerbate inflation, weaken consumption, and accelerate the restructuring of global supply chains in the long term. The future direction of trade policy still depends on the U.S. trade review report in April and the progress of negotiations among countries.

#交易故事 #交易经验

How should I adjust my trading strategy for the future?

In the context of recent increased market volatility, investors need to reassess their trading strategies to cope with the new situation. Short-term traders may consider increasing their profit-taking and stop-loss ratios and reducing leverage to avoid sudden risks; medium to long-term holders should focus on fundamentally sound assets and accumulate positions gradually during dips.

Technical analysis remains an important reference, but it must be combined with changes in macro policies—such as Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, geopolitical conflicts, and other events—to flexibly adjust positions. Diversifying investments (such as increasing allocations in gold and government bonds as safe-haven assets) and using hedging tools will effectively smooth out return fluctuations.

Finally, maintaining discipline is crucial: set clear trading plans, avoid emotional trading, and regularly review and optimize strategies. The market is always full of uncertainty, and only dynamic adjustments can lead to sustained profits.

Prediction of BTC Trend for the Next Week: High-Range Fluctuations and Key Support and Macro Data to Watch

Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a high-range fluctuation after breaking through the $100,000 mark, closing at $102,507 on May 13. It faces short-term technical pullback pressure, but the medium to long-term bullish structure remains unchanged. The key points for the next week’s trend are as follows:

1. Technical Aspect: BTC's short-term support is at $102,000. If it breaks below this, it may retest the $98,000-$100,000 range; resistance above to watch is $105,000, and if broken, it may challenge the historical high of $109,225.
2. Capital Aspect: Institutional funds continue to flow into Bitcoin ETFs (e.g., BlackRock has seen a net inflow of over $5 billion for 20 consecutive days), but caution is needed regarding the selling pressure from whale address reductions.
3. Macro Factors: If the U.S. CPI data shows cooling inflation (with an expected year-on-year growth rate dropping to 2.2%), it may strengthen the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which would be positive for BTC; conversely, it could trigger short-term volatility.

In summary, BTC may maintain high-range fluctuations in the short term. Investors can focus on key support levels for staggered investments while being wary of the risk of overheated market sentiment.

On May 12, 2023, Paul S. Atkins, Chairman of the SEC, clearly stated at the tokenization roundtable that the SEC will abandon the "enforcement regulation" model and shift towards developing flexible rules suited for crypto assets. Key points from the meeting include:
1. Tokenization Potential: Atkins likened it to the digital audio revolution, emphasizing that on-chain securities will reshape issuance, trading, and asset management models, enhancing liquidity and reducing intermediary costs.
2. Issuance Reform: Plans to adjust traditional securities disclosure requirements, explore exclusive exemptions and safe harbor policies for crypto assets, and simplify compliance pathways.
3. Custody Deregulation: Abolishing SAB 121, which restricts banks from custodying crypto assets, and promoting optimization of self-custody and qualified custodian standards.
4. Trading Innovation: Supporting the "super application" model, allowing mixed trading of securities and non-securities assets to promote market vitality.

This meeting marks a shift in SEC policy aimed at attracting crypto innovation back to the United States, echoing the Trump administration's vision of a "crypto capital."

In May 2023, the CPI (Consumer Price Index) increased by 0.3% year-on-year, maintaining the same growth rate as the previous month, and slightly decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, but the decline narrowed. Food prices fell by 2.0% year-on-year, while some categories such as fresh fruits and pork rose month-on-month; non-food prices decreased due to the impact of reduced travel services and energy prices. The core CPI increased by 0.6% year-on-year, indicating a moderate recovery in consumption.

During the same period, the PPI (Producer Price Index) decreased by 1.4% year-on-year but rose by 0.2% month-on-month, ending a six-month declining trend, with the rebound in prices of industrial products such as non-ferrous metals and coal being the main reasons.

Analysis indicates that the CPI reflects that domestic demand still needs to be stimulated, while the recovery in PPI may signify marginal improvements in the industrial sector. In the future, as policies to boost consumption and stabilize investment take effect, prices are expected to gradually stabilize and rise.

#交易故事 #新闻交易 Analysis of Trading Cases and Response Speed Based on Market News

Trading Background: On May 12, 2025, following the announcement of easing tensions in the China-U.S. trade war, global risk assets rebounded rapidly. I observed that the offshore Chinese Yuan (CNH) appreciated by more than 400 basis points in a single day, while the technology sector of the A-share market (such as semiconductors and photovoltaics) opened with a jump of 3%-5%.

Trade Execution:
1. Information Acquisition: Within 5 minutes after the news push, confirm key details (tariff reduction, buffer period, industry impact).
2. Decision Basis: Based on technical aspects (Hang Seng Technology Index breaking through key resistance levels) and capital flow (net inflow of 18 billion from northbound funds in one day), decided to go long on Hong Kong technology ETF (3033.HK).
3. Entry Timing: Completed position building 15 minutes after the news was announced, with a cost price only 1.2% higher than the opening.

Results and Reflections:
- This ETF closed up 4.8% on the same day, and I took profit 24 hours later, earning 3.5%.
- Response Speed Rating: Relatively fast (B+), due to the lack of pre-positioning based on negotiation expectations, but with high information processing and execution efficiency.
- Improvement Points: In the future, monitor diplomatic trends to anticipate events and shorten the decision-making chain.

Conclusion: News-driven trading requires a balance between speed and verification; quickly filtering reliable sources and matching technical signals is key.

On May 12, 2023, Bitcoin (BTC) entered a narrow range after breaking through $105,000, with the price at approximately $104,200 at the time of writing, a 24-hour increase of 0.3%, and a weekly increase of over 10%. The market is influenced by the easing of US-China trade negotiations and the Federal Reserve's maintained interest rate expectations (82.7% probability), leading to an overall optimistic sentiment, with the Fear and Greed Index reaching 70 (Greed).

From a technical perspective, BTC has short-term support at $104,000 and resistance at $106,405. The MACD and RSI indicators show contradictions, indicating a risk of a pullback. Institutional funds continue to flow in, with the Bitcoin ETF scale surpassing $118 billion, and Goldman Sachs increasing its holdings in iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) by 28%, boosting market confidence. Analysts expect that if it breaks through $106,000, BTC may challenge a new high of $122,000.

In the short term, attention should be paid to US CPI data and details of trade negotiations, while being wary of the risks of high-leverage short positions being liquidated.

On May 12, 2022, the United States and China reached an agreement in Geneva, Switzerland, announcing a suspension of certain tariff increases, with an overall reduction exceeding 100%, while retaining a 10% baseline tariff as a negotiation chip. This breakthrough marks the first substantial easing since the trade war began in 2018, leading to a rapid response in global markets, with A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and US tech sectors collectively rising, and the offshore yuan appreciating by over 400 basis points in a single day.

The agreement includes a 90-day buffer period, during which both sides will establish a normalized consultation mechanism and adjust certain non-tariff measures. Industries such as photovoltaics and semiconductors stand to benefit significantly, but uncertainties remain regarding technological competition and supply chain restructuring. Analysts believe that this move provides short-term relief from global economic and trade tensions, but long-term competition will persist, and attention should be paid to the progress of subsequent negotiations.

#交易故事 #策略交易

When analyzing BTC trading strategies, it is common to combine technical indicators with market structure for a comprehensive judgment. Below are common strategy frameworks (which should be adjusted according to specific market conditions):

1. Trend Following Strategy
- Breakout trading: If BTC breaks through key resistance (such as previous highs or round numbers) with increased volume, enter the market in the direction of the trend, with a stop-loss set at the low before the breakout.
- Moving Average System: For example, a golden cross of EMA20/50 signals a buy, while a death cross indicates a reduction in position, verified with trading volume.

2. Range Trading Strategy
- RSI/Bollinger Bands: Buy on a rebound in the oversold area (RSI < 30), and short on a pullback in the overbought area (RSI > 70); buy at the lower band support of Bollinger Bands and sell at the upper band resistance.
- High sell and low buy within a clearly defined support/resistance range: Operate in waves between confirmed support and resistance levels.

3. Core Risk Control
- Stop-Loss Discipline: Individual trade losses should not exceed 1-2% of the principal.
- Dynamic Take-Profit: Take profits in batches at key resistance levels for part of the position, while tracking the remaining position for further take-profit.

Note: Actual strategies should be flexibly adjusted based on on-chain data (such as whale movements) and macro events (such as Federal Reserve policies). It is recommended to first backtest with historical data to verify effectiveness.