Frédéric RAHARIFIRINGA

XRP ON ALL FRONTS.

President Donald Trump announced the creation of a strategic crypto reserve for the United States. A fund that includes made in USA projects. This is why Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has just reaffirmed his belief that XRP will be on this VIP list.

In an interview, Brad Garlinghouse expressed his optimism about the future of XRP. Yet, this crypto has been regularly presented as independent of the Ripple project for several years.

In any case, the abandonment of the SEC's proceedings against Ripple regarding XRP – is very good news. And an opportunity for its CEO to present a bright future to his investors.

For Brad Garlinghouse is convinced that the XRP crypto will be part of the strategic crypto reserve promised by Donald Trump. All you have to do is take the American president at his word, even though he originally only spoke of Bitcoin.

During this interview, Brad Garlinghouse mentioned a "wave of XRP ETF approvals" in the second half of 2025. All strongly supported by a growing list of pending applications with the SEC.

But one of the central points of this intervention concerns more specifically the rumors about a public offering of the Ripple project. Because this prospect has been in the company's plans since 2021.

A possibility about which the head of Ripple remains quite evasive. Because it is, according to him, a possibility that "is not a significant priority" for his company. Especially with the XRP price established above 2.$ for the first time since 2017!

Brad Garlinghouse remains confident about the future of XRP. Whether it's about its integration into the American strategic crypto reserve or the approval of its spot ETFs. And the XRP whales in full accumulation prove him right.
#RippleVictory

BITCOIN, A RISK-OFF ASSET?

As the price of Bitcoin recently dropped by more than 20% from its all-time high of $108,000, BlackRock's head of digital assets, Robert Mitchnick, stated in an interview that Bitcoin is not a risk asset. According to him, this crypto is "global, rare, non-sovereign, and decentralized".

A risk asset is an investment that poses a potential financial loss for investors. In the case of Bitcoin, Robert Mitchnick believes that the idea of it being a so-called risk-on asset is a "self-inflicted wound" by the industry itself:

"What we have seen lately seems to be a self-inflicted wound from some research and comments in the industry, which sometimes lean towards this idea of a risky asset," he said in the U.S. trade press.

He emphasized that economic fears in the United States, such as rising tariffs and the possibility of a recession, should not affect the price of Bitcoin.

"It is not clear that tariffs are fundamentally bad for Bitcoin," he added. "As for economic fears, I don’t know if we have a recession or not, but it would be a great catalyst for Bitcoin".

The rush for institutional dollars propelled Bitcoin to a record price of over $108,000 by the end of 2024. However, the price of the asset has since dropped by more than 20% as investors grapple with the effects of President Trump's aggressive tariff policies and the possibility of a recession in the United States.

Despite this, Robert Mitchnick remains optimistic about the future of Bitcoin: "Obviously, 2024 has been quite incredible, quite historic," he said. But "fundamentally, we believe this is what the long term will be. That’s why people perceive it as digital gold".
#FedWatch

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BITCOIN: THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION WANTS TO HAVE AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE

During the Digital Asset Summit 2025, Bo Hines, executive director of the Presidential Working Group on Digital Assets, confirmed that bitcoin is a "commodity" type asset and not a financial security, thus affirming the United States' position on the legal nature of BTC.

But what caught attention was his statement that the United States wants to accumulate as much as possible, while specifying that this will be done in a "budget-neutral" manner, meaning without impacting taxpayers.

This statement comes at a key moment for the digital asset industry. As the Trump administration seeks to strengthen the United States' position in the crypto economy, legislation on stablecoins could be presented to Congress in the next two months. This regulatory framework, if adopted, would provide more clarity to companies in the sector and encourage innovation.

The government's interest in bitcoin as a strategic asset marks a break from the more cautious approaches of previous administrations. If the U.S. government were to massively accumulate BTC, it would enhance the credibility of crypto in the eyes of financial institutions, influencing long-term monetary policy.

The idea of a nation-state accumulating bitcoin is not new, but seeing the United States adopt this strategy is a major development. Several questions remain unanswered:

- How does Washington plan to acquire bitcoin without using public funds?

- What impact could this have on the regulation and adoption of bitcoin in the United States?

- Could this approach inspire other nations?

With this announcement, the Trump administration sends a clear signal: bitcoin is part of the country's strategic assets.
#FedWatch

DIVE, THEN BOUNCE!

The Bitcoin price has taken us on a roller coaster ride. First, the price of BTC saw a sharp increase after Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election, reaching a new all-time high of over $109,000. But then, Bitcoin experienced a significant correction due to trade tensions between the United States and its trading partners.

In a recent analysis, Matt Hougan explains why Bitcoin often reacts during crisis moments – like the recent trade war initiated by Donald Trump – with a pattern called 'Dip then Rip'.

Indeed, although Bitcoin is perceived as a long-term store of value and protection asset, it tends to retract during periods of short-term volatility. A previous study by Bitwise showed that, on average, Bitcoin dropped 30% more than significant declines in the S&P 500.

However, this research revealed that those who remained invested in Bitcoin, or bought more after the dips, saw an average gain of +190% in the following year. A pattern that Matt Hougan calls 'Dip then Rip'. Because BTC lives with the fears and euphoria of financial markets, yet remains bullish in the long term.

This behavior can be explained by how Wall Street traders and investors evaluate assets, using the 'net present value' method. This method calculates the value of an asset today based on an estimate of its future performance.

Bitwise estimates that Bitcoin will be worth 1 million $ by the year 2029. Its current value depends on the 'discount factor' which reflects the risk perceived by the market.

Thus, we can understand the market's reaction to the trade war regarding tariffs. Indeed, these announcements have increased uncertainty in the market, which has raised the discount factor and lowered the current value of BTC.
#FedWatch

XRP ACCUMULATION.

Since Donald Trump's arrival in the White House, the XRP cryptocurrency seems to be rising from the ashes. This is largely associated with the regulatory relaxation enjoyed by the Ripple project, even though the power cord has been cut. This situation seems to encourage whales, who are accumulating despite—or because of—the recent decline in this cryptocurrency. They have just increased their holdings by more than 6.5% over the past two months.
Whales are wallets that hold a significant amount of certain cryptocurrencies.

As a result, they can help identify internal dynamics that could lead to a possible future trend change.

These digital mammals often take advantage of bearish periods to accumulate ever more funds. This allows them to buy them back on sale from investors with more shaky hands.

And, clearly, this is exactly what is happening with XRP. At least, according to the latest data published by Santiment.

"Wallets with at least 1 million XRP now hold 46.4 billion tokens, following a 6.5% increase in the last two months alone."

This accumulation comes as the XRP price has managed to stabilize above the 2$ level since last December. A record it hadn't reached since 2017, still quite far from its peak at $3.40.

Clearly, these XRP whales are hoping to take advantage of the regulatory easing implemented in the United States.

The cryptocurrency market is positioning itself in the starting blocks in the face of hopes of a bullish reversal. Because despite the palpable disillusionment among investors, a bear market is not yet on the cards. And the XRP whales seem to have understood this. #RippleVictory

A GOLD THAT SHINES BRIGHTLY.

As financial markets are experiencing increased volatility, good old physical gold continues to be valued. The price of pure gold per ounce has reached an ATH (all-time high) of $3,057 today. In contrast, BTC has not yet resumed its upward trajectory.

The price of gold per ounce hit a new record on Thursday, March 20, 2025, reaching $3,057. The metal is continuing an upward trend that has seen its market grow by +15.5% since the beginning of 2025.

This performance contrasts with that of BTC, which has fallen by -23% since its own last all-time high of $109,000, established on the day of Donald Trump's inauguration as President of the United States.

While gold continues to play its role as a safe haven, the king of cryptos seems to currently follow the bearish trend of technology stocks. Indeed, geopolitical tensions have contributed to uncertainty in the markets. Key indices of U.S. stocks, such as the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500, have recorded significant declines, which also affect the crypto market.

During the American banking crisis of 2023, BTC showed a correlation with gold, behaving as a solid store of value. However, this correlation seems to have weakened.

According to a recent comment by Eric Balchunas, Bitcoin is still "too young to stabilize" and will require time to mature before it can compete with gold as a safe haven.

Although American President Donald Trump has introduced favorable policies to stimulate the crypto-asset sector, they will take time to produce their effect. And while digital gold proves itself further, investors are turning to good old golden metal.
#FedWatch

THIS THE END

This marks the end of a legal saga that has lasted more than three years. According to Bloomberg, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has decided to withdraw its appeal in the case against Ripple Labs regarding the classification of XRP as an unregistered security. This decision marks a major victory for Ripple and could have significant implications for the entire crypto industry.

The SEC sued Ripple in December 2020, claiming that the company raised $1.3 billion through an unregistered securities offering by selling its native token, XRP. Ripple has consistently denied these accusations, arguing that XRP should not be considered a security.

In July 2023, a federal judge subsequently ruled in Ripple's favor, concluding that sales of XRP on exchanges did not constitute a securities offering. However, the SEC appealed this decision, prolonging the legal battle.

The SEC's decision to withdraw its appeal is a victory for Ripple, which has spent millions of dollars in legal fees defending itself against the agency's accusations. Ripple's CEO said the SEC's decision was "a step in the right direction" for the crypto industry:

"We are pleased that the SEC has finally recognized that XRP is not a security. This sets an important precedent for the industry, and we hope it will encourage other companies to continue innovating in the United States."

The U.S. regulator's decision to withdraw its appeal in the Ripple case is a victory for the company and a relief for the entire crypto industry. As cryptocurrency regulation continues to evolve in the United States, this case could serve as a precedent for similar litigation in the future.
#RippleVictory

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BITCOIN: ARE NEW INVESTORS GIVING UP?

Yesterday, the Fed decided not to lower interest rates. This was not a surprise for traders, and the BTC price reacted positively, rising back above $87,000. BTC is up 3% in 24 hours.

Despite this reaction, the price is still down 10.5% over the month and nearly 12% over three months. Meanwhile, the BTC/ETH pair is stagnant over 24 hours but has dropped 4.3% in a week. ETH has managed to rise back above $2,000, but will the increase last?

If you follow cryptocurrencies, you know that BTC and altcoins are in a correction phase. BTC has fallen 30% since the peak, and ETH has plummeted nearly 60%. The drop in BTC has hurt investors, especially short-term holders.

Traders who acquired their BTC in less than 155 days are facing significant losses. This level of loss far exceeds those of 2024 and suggests a capitulation. However, the realized losses are lower than those during the events of 2021 and 2022.

The trend has been bearish since the peak around $110,000, but the price has been rebounding since the buying reaction around the support at 76,500 $ :

If the rebound continues, the price could face resistance at $89,000. If it breaks, BTC could return to the resistance level of $92,000. Conversely, in case of weakening, a return to 76,500 $ is not impossible. Meanwhile, the RSI could validate a bullish divergence in the coming hours. A slowdown on the sellers' side would be recorded if developments exceed 74.

New investors are showing notable losses that could correspond to a capitulation. The price of Bitcoin is bouncing back, but it will need to break the resistance at 89,000 $ to hope to reach the psychological round figure of $90,000.
#FedWatch

FROM WEB3 TO BANKING.

The crypto sector is undergoing a significant transformation. According to a Reuters report, more and more crypto and FinTech companies are seeking to obtain banking licenses. This desire is explained by a regulatory environment deemed more favorable to innovation and digital assets.

A banking charter is a license that allows a company to operate as a bank, with all the advantages. It offers the possibility to accept deposits, lend money, and benefit from the credibility associated with the bank status.

"We have seen an increase in inquiries about banking charters from fintechs and cryptocurrency companies," stated a specialized lawyer.

This trend is part of a context where the Trump administration is sending multiple signals in favor of the crypto sector. Since his inauguration, the president has created a task force on cryptocurrencies, signed an executive order to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve, and organized the first crypto summit.

These measures have encouraged companies to enter the race for banking licenses, despite high costs of several tens of millions of dollars and the regulatory challenges related to compliance with anti-money laundering laws and the Bank Secrecy Act.

Although this approach is rare in the crypto sector, some players have already taken the plunge. This is the case of Kraken, which obtained a banking charter in Wyoming in 2020, and Anchorage Digital Bank, which received its license in January 2021.

However, the road is still long for crypto companies wishing to become banks. They must face increased scrutiny from regulators and a centralization that may seem contrary to the decentralized spirit of crypto.
#USTariffs

ALTCOINS IN DANGER!!

Bitcoin today captures 61.6% of the total crypto market capitalization. A level not seen in several years! On February 3, 2025, BTC dominance even reached 64.3%. According to crypto experts, this is a sign of increasing capital concentration on the safest digital asset in the sector.

Historically, the crypto market operated according to a well-known cycle for investors. After a rise in BTC, profits were transferred to altcoins. This favored a value explosion! This capital rotation allowed for the emergence of new crypto-assets. Upstream, it fueled the famous altseason.

But this mechanism seems to be blocked today. Indeed, the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs has changed the game by attracting a significant portion of institutional funds. Specifically, these new digital assets isolate crypto liquidity.

The impact is clear: a market where BTC captures the majority of investments to the detriment of other cryptos.

Crypto analysts report over 12.7 million different digital assets on March 15, 2025, compared to less than 11 million in February.

In January alone, over 600,000 new crypto tokens were launched. These are mainly memecoins and low market cap altcoins.

This overabundance poses a significant problem: too many projects, not enough crypto liquidity. Many of these new tokens indeed fail quickly and stagnate in the market.

This saturation even worries major crypto exchange platforms. The CEO of Coinbase is considering reforming the token listing process to adapt to this explosion of digital assets.
#MarketRebound

A STORY WORTHY OF A TELEVISION SERIES.

Netflix, the well-known streaming platform, is recognized for its massive investments in film productions.

In 2020, it financed a science fiction series for a total of $44 million. In fact, the series was directed by Carl Rinsch, known for being the creator of the film 47 Ronin starring actor Keanu Reeves.

A few months after the initial funding, Carl Rinsch turned to Netflix once again to obtain additional funds. The platform transferred him an additional $11 million $ .

However, Rinsch did not use the funds to finance his series. He transferred the funds to his personal account and began trading securities.

Probably a better director than trader, Rinsch lost half of the funds by April 2020. He squandered millions $ on hotels, rentals, etc. Not to mention the lawyer fees, hired to sue the streaming company for more funds. The world upside down.

This was without considering the involvement of the American justice system. Indeed, on Tuesday, March 18, the United States Attorney's Office for the Southern District of New York announced the arrest of Carl Rinsch. He was apprehended in Hollywood, California.

Presented before the court, Rinsch is charged with electronic fraud, money laundering, and five counts. In total, he faces up to 90 years in prison.

In November 2023, the New York Times revealed certain lucrative transactions made by Carl Rinsch. For example, he bought $4 million $ in DOGE, which he converted into $27 million $ by selling his position in May 2021.

In any case, he now faces serious consequences before the American justice system. Meanwhile, the streaming platform hopes to regain the funds squandered by the director.
#MarketRebound

A BITCOIN LOAN

Xapo Bank stands out as a fully licensed bank, offering a regulated platform for responsible lending solutions. The institution aims to differentiate itself from Celsius and BlockFi, which went bankrupt in 2022, seriously undermining user trust in this type of service:

"Many long-term BTC holders have shied away from crypto-backed loans after noticing predatory lending practices and products they could not rely on," said Seamus Rocca of Xapo Bank.

This new offering allows members to leverage their BTC holdings as collateral to access dollar credits without having to sell their assets, unless the BTC price falls below the loan-to-value threshold.

Eligible members can calculate their borrowing limit via the Xapo Bank app, with a transparent final repayment amount and clear interest rate. Funds are deposited instantly into the member's USD bank account upon approval, while the corresponding bitcoins are locked until the loan is repaid.

Xapo Bank offers the option to repay early without penalties, with a real-time tracking tool to monitor the loan status and economic risk factors. Users can borrow more than the pre-approved amounts subject to additional checks.

With this new loan offering, Xapo Bank continues to innovate in the cryptocurrency banking sector, providing solutions tailored to the needs of Bitcoin investors.
#USTariffs

GOODBYE HOLESKY!

The Ethereum blockchain is a living, evolving organism. This is why its developers need to make adjustments to ensure its proper functioning. In this field, test networks have become essential tools.

A situation made even more evident with the ongoing deployment of the Pectra upgrade. A hard fork intended to improve the scalability of its network, all while considering the emergence of a multitude of layer 2 solutions and their parallel activities.

In practice, each upgrade requires going through a testing period. In the case of Pectra, two such phases were scheduled with the Holesky and Sepolia testnets. However, things did not go very well in the first case...

That is why an additional testing phase has been added on the brand-new Hoodi network. Its emergence seems to signal the planned disappearance of the Holesky testnet.

Test networks are not immortal on Ethereum. Indeed, their utility evolves. This sometimes means signing off on the disappearance of some of them to allow for the arrival of a more efficient version.

In this case, it is the Holesky testnet that is affected. According to a recent article published on the official Ethereum blog, the network developers plan to stop supporting it next September.

"In the future, staking operators and infrastructure providers will need to use Hoodi to test validators. To allow time for migration, the Holesky testnet will be supported until September 2025."

Ethereum developers continue their testing in view of the Pectra update, hoping that the deployment of this hard fork will give new momentum to the cryptocurrency ETH.
#USTariffs

MOST MEMECOINS WILL END UP WORTHLESS

In an interview with Fortune, Cathie Wood stated that most memecoins are based on hype and speculation rather than solid fundamentals.

She compared this situation to the Internet bubble of the 2000s, where many companies without a viable business model saw their value collapse.

According to Wood, only a few memecoins will survive in the long term, and even those will need to prove their utility and adoption to justify their value.

Cathie Wood also warned investors about the risks associated with memecoins. She emphasized that the extreme volatility of these assets can lead to significant losses for those who are unprepared.

She suggested that investors exercise caution and focus on projects with solid fundamentals and growing adoption.

For Wood, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum remain safer investments due to their increasing adoption and real-world use.

Cathie Wood is not alone in expressing concerns about memecoins. Many industry experts have also warned about the overvaluation of these assets and the risk of speculative bubbles. Despite this, memecoins continue to attract investor attention, particularly due to their potential for quick and high returns. However, as Cathie Wood points out, it is essential to exercise caution and not get carried away by the hype.
#FedWatch

THE TOKENIZATION IS COMING TO DUBAI

It is through a press release that the Financial Services Authority of the Emirate of Dubai announced its plan to establish a 'regulatory sandbox'. This is to allow companies to test their products and services related to tokenization without fearing the usual regulatory constraints.

This program is open to companies wishing to innovate in the field of tokenization of real-world assets, or RWA, such as stocks, bonds, and even investment funds.

Interested companies must submit an application to the Dubai Financial Services Authority to participate in this program. They must submit it before April 24, 2025.

These companies will then undergo an evaluation process, and 'those that demonstrate strong business models and a good understanding of regulation' will be able to participate in this 'sandbox' environment for tokenization. These selected companies will benefit from 'appropriate regulatory support and structured testing opportunities'.

Thus, this sandbox will be divided into two phases: the first concerns feasibility testing and concept validation, while the second is dedicated to practical implementation and risk assessment. At each stage, the DFSA will provide personalized support to help companies navigate the complex regulatory landscape of tokenization.

RWA tokenization is particularly promising for revolutionizing the future of global finance. And by launching this regulatory sandbox, Dubai confirms its role as a pioneer in the adoption of cutting-edge financial technologies emerging from the world of Bitcoin and its counterparts. Just recently, Dubai's financial authorities gave the green light to Ripple to offer crypto payment services to the emirate.
#FedWatch

TO BE OR NOT TO BE IN A BULL RUN.

Ki Young Ju pointed out that all on-chain indicators for Bitcoin point to a bear market. He noted that fresh liquidity is drying up and that new whales are selling their Bitcoins at lower prices. This observation contrasts with his post from March 4, where he claimed that Bitcoin's bullish cycle was still intact, citing strong fundamentals and an increase in the number of mining rigs.

This latest statement comes as Bitcoin's funding rates, which reflect the cost of maintaining long or short positions in crypto futures, are close to 0%, indicating increasing indecision among traders.

Not all analysts obviously share Ki Young Ju's bearish outlook. Pav Hundal, for example, stated that there was no reason to panic, highlighting that despite fears related to Donald Trump's tariffs, global economic indicators remain positive. He even added that "money will move to risk assets when the market is ready to take risks."

Other analysts, like Seth, agree with him and noted that the global money supply (M2) has reached new highs, which would indicate an imminent recovery for Bitcoin. Dave Weisberger even predicted that if the historical correlation between BTC and money supply holds, Bitcoin would reach new highs by the end of April!

While some see signs of a bear market for Bitcoin, others remain optimistic about a potential recovery. Investors will have to navigate these uncertain waters, taking into account on-chain indicators and macroeconomic trends to make informed decisions. It's hard to be definitive in these troubled times.
#USTariffs

ALWAYS MORE.

Strategy continues its strategy of massive BTC purchases by announcing the issuance of 5 million $ shares to finance its acquisitions. This decision comes as the BTC market experiences a period of stagnation. Despite this, Strategy remains determined to increase its BTC reserves.

In a recent statement, Strategy revealed its intention to issue 5 million shares of Series A Perpetual Strife Preferred Stock. The funds raised will be used for "general purposes," including the purchase of BTC. This announcement follows the acquisition of 130 BTC for $10.7 million, bringing their total holdings to 499,226 BTC.

Despite a recent market correction, Strategy remains largely profitable on its investments. With an average purchase price of 66 360$ per BTC, the company still enjoys a comfortable margin, even though Bitcoin is currently trading around $82,000.

This aggressive buying strategy shows Michael Saylor's confidence in the long-term potential of his favorite crypto. In addition to financing its BTC purchases, Strategy offers attractive dividends to entice investors; the newly issued shares will thus offer cumulative dividends at an annual rate of 10%.

Shareholders will receive these dividends quarterly, starting June 30, 2025. This policy aims to attract more investors, thus strengthening Strategy’s capacity to continue its BTC acquisitions. With this new share issuance, Michael Saylor continues to bet on crypto, despite an uncertain market.

While some observers predict a period of stagnation for Bitcoin, the head of Strategy sees rather a buying opportunity. A strategy that could prove profitable if Bitcoin resumes its upward trend.
#FedWatch

BITCOIN: INCOMPARABLE

Anthony Pompliano responded to the statements of Jason Calacanis, a notorious detractor of BTC.

The latter had suggested that an improved version of BTC could emerge. During his podcast, Pompliano contradicted this claim by stating: "There will never be a better Bitcoin."

To support his argument, the investor drew a parallel with other technologies that, despite continuous improvements, retain their original essence.

"The internet and mobile phones are two examples of major technologies that have evolved, but no alternative has managed to surpass them," he explained.

Pompliano highlighted the exceptional design of BTC, emphasizing that it results from nearly six decades of research and innovation. This perfection would, in his view, render any attempt at fundamental improvement unnecessary.

Pompliano's position aligns with that of other advocates like Michael Saylor, who has heavily invested in crypto since August 2020. Recently, Strategy bolstered its position by acquiring an additional 130 BTCs.

The adoption of BTC, led by individual investors, has gradually extended to financial institutions. Now, it is the governments themselves that are beginning to recognize its unique value.

An example of this evolution is the creation of a strategic reserve by the U.S. government, aimed at holding its BTC assets for the long term. This decision reflects growing institutional confidence, despite recent debates.

As Samson Mow pointed out in a statement, "Bitcoin is now equivalent to gold.
#FedWatch

THE MARKET STARTS IN THE RED

BTC briefly touched 84,000$ on Sunday, a key resistance level for a potential bullish recovery towards 90,000$. However, the leading crypto collapsed around 83,300$ this Monday. Additionally, major cryptos like XRP, SOL, ADA, and DOGE also dropped by 5%, while BNB held firm with a 3% increase.

This correction occurs within a broader situation marked by tariffs imposed by the United States and a deterioration in macroeconomic conditions. Some crypto analysts are concerned about a possible recession in the United States, with increased tensions in the financial markets.

According to several experts, the recent crypto correction could be attributed to a massive liquidation of positions by multi-strategy funds. These funds use various tactics, such as arbitrage, long/short positions, and leverage to maximize their returns.

So far, the price of ETH remains closely correlated to BTC movements. The weakness of the ETH/BTC ratio shows that Ethereum is struggling to assert itself, despite promising technological advancements. The evolution of certain critical levels will be decisive for market dynamics in the coming weeks.

The current volatility in the crypto market therefore reflects fragility in the face of macroeconomic uncertainties and liquidations from multi-strategy funds. While Bitcoin attempts to stabilize its support, Ethereum remains dependent on its momentum. The coming days will be crucial to determine whether the market can rebound or head towards a deeper correction, as indicated by the threats of recession and tariffs on the bull run.
#FedWatch

BITCOIN: BULL RUN IN SIGHT

The Fed meeting will take place today, and it will provide insights regarding interest rate decisions. In the meantime, the BTC price is stagnant over 24 hours and shows a slight increase over a week (+1.6%).

BTC has recorded a decrease of 13.5% over a month and nearly 18% over three months. While BTC had significantly outperformed ETH for several months, the BTC/ETH pair has fallen by 1.6% in 24 hours and 2% over a week.

Since the market low, the BTC price has registered an increase of over 600%. However, a 30% correction after years of performance raises the question of a return to a bear market. By applying a 50-period moving average (SMA 50/blue) on a weekly basis, we see that hope is still present.

For now, the BTC price is moving above the blue curve, which is situated around 75,000 $ , and the situation is different compared to the bear market of 2022. A rebound could occur around 75,000 $, similar to August 2024, but a breakthrough of this level could lead to bearish volatility. The 50-week moving average is a good threshold separating the bull market from the bear market, and according to this metric, BTC is still in a bull market.

Note that the evolution of BTC depends on various factors, and the Fed will impact the BTC price.

The BTC price has been fluctuating around 82,000 $ for several days. However, the underlying trend has been rather bearish since the peak recorded in January.

Given the trend displayed in 4H, a new decline towards 76,500 $ is possible. As long as there is no change in dynamics in 4H, the price will remain in favor of sellers. The RSI is encouraging; a bullish divergence could appear if development occurs beyond 74.

The price of Bitcoin is controlled by sellers, but the 50-period moving average on a weekly basis shows that the cycle may not be over.
#FedWatch