龚有柴GongYouchai

One-handed driving a Ferrari
币安王牌KOL专属群（龚有柴）

Why is trading so difficult? Today let's talk about the two main points:
First, making small profits is easy because it aligns with human nature, what we often refer to as 'locking in profits'. In trading, many people often exit the market after making a small profit, only to regret it when the price rebounds. This situation continuously reinforces the idea of 'running away with small profits', leading you further down the wrong path.
Second, taking small losses is difficult because it goes against human nature. In trading, after a price drop followed by a rebound, unrealistic expectations arise, causing hesitation and an inability to cut losses in time. As a result, small losses turn into large ones, and eventually, one can only shut down the computer and escape reality. This escapism makes it hard for people to break free.
Such trading results are often small profits and large losses, which is exactly the opposite of the results achieved by experts—experts often have small losses and large gains. Therefore, trading is counterintuitive and requires overcoming human weaknesses like desire, greed, fear, and avoidance.

Even if the counterfeit season really arrives, I must remind myself to only invest in strong, clearly structured, and well-aligned cryptocurrencies. Don't waste time, energy, and funds betting on those half-dead junk coins, and don't expect them to suddenly 'thrive after accumulating'.
The speculative market is not like falling in love; it sounds romantic, but in practice, it always comes at a cost. Those cryptocurrencies with real funding and confidence will always be the first to start and provide feedback. #山寨季何时到来？

Yesterday, Bitcoin's price broke the $100,000 mark, rising over 6%, but nearly 200,000 people were liquidated, and 80% of the short positions evaporated.
Wall Street giants like BlackRock are hoarding coins through ETFs, controlling the pricing power. With continuous policy dividends, Bitcoin is gradually becoming a 'quasi-official asset', and global inflation has made it a new safe-haven choice.
However, retail investors are clearly no match for the big players. Institutions use fake orders to fish for stop-loss points. Once the price breaks through key levels, high-leverage short positions are instantly forced to close, with $840 million in short positions evaporating in an instant. Market computing power is concentrated, and regulation may tighten at any time, while popular coins are still diverting funds.

Is $100,000 the starting point for wealth, or a trap for massive losses?
Remember, the pricing power is in the hands of institutions. Don't touch high leverage, or you'll turn into chives in no time.

What is the secret of trading?
In fact, true trading experts do not frequently buy and sell, but patiently wait, looking for only a few of the most certain trading signals each month. Waiting is the hardest part of trading; it tests the trader's patience and mindset. Many people cannot stand the silence of the market and always feel compelled to trade signals they are not familiar with, just to pursue that thrill, often paying the price for their impulsiveness.
Truly outstanding traders maintain a calm mindset and know when to take action. Because they understand deeply that the essence of trading lies in: slowing down to go further. #交易故事

Buffett, Dalio, and other investment moguls have consistently held a critical view of Bitcoin.
As successful figures and thought leaders in the traditional financial sector, they may find it difficult to understand or be unwilling to accept the arrival of the new digital economy era.
History tends to repeat itself; the successful figures of the past often become the opponents of change in a new era.
As a vested interest in traditional finance, Buffett naturally dislikes changes to the rules of the game. This is akin to how Tesla faced suppression from traditional gasoline vehicles when it first emerged, or how Einstein strongly opposed Bohr's quantum mechanics theory.
Progress is made through the collision of old and new ideas.

GM
Woke up to Bitcoin at 104k
Another beautiful day

US Treasuries are beginning to be auctioned; what impact will this have on the market?
This week, the United States will auction 3-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bonds. In the current environment of high borrowing costs, selling bonds may reduce the amount of money in the market. If the auction is robust, with strong demand and stable interest rates, market fluctuations will not be too significant. However, if the auction performs poorly, with weak demand and soaring interest rates, the market may fall into panic, fearing issues with US debt. This could lead to a sharp decline in the bond market, affect US stocks, and risk assets like Bitcoin may also suffer, while the dollar's volatility could increase.
However, the recent performance of US bond auctions has been fairly good, especially for the 10-year government bonds, which sold well. It is important to note that domestic buyers in the US are highly enthusiastic, while overseas buyers show little interest. This means that US Treasuries are absorbing more funds from American investors, potentially reducing the available capital in the US investment market.
Next, there will be a sale of 30-year US Treasuries, which will further tighten liquidity, leading to less capital and putting more pressure on the short-term market. In other words, this may compress the upward potential of the cryptocurrency market. #BTC交易

The "Bitcoinization" of the United States is accelerating, and $100,000 may just be a new starting point for Bitcoin.
Recently, Arizona and New Hampshire passed Bitcoin reserve laws, and Texas is also actively promoting related legislation, with more states expected to join this trend in the future. This series of actions indicates that the financial reserves of the United States are gradually leaning towards Bitcoin.
In the past, it was companies purchasing Bitcoin, but now state governments are getting directly involved, incorporating Bitcoin into their strategic reserve assets, and even authorizing financial officials to purchase it directly. This can be seen as a national-level accumulation of Bitcoin. This is distinctly different from ordinary retail investors' speculative activities, indicating the strategic importance of Bitcoin at the official level.

As the credit crisis of U.S. Treasury bonds intensifies and state governments increase their involvement with Bitcoin, the role of Bitcoin is undergoing a transformation. It is no longer just digital gold; it is gradually becoming a presence similar to "U.S. central bank assets." Its investment logic is also undergoing fundamental changes.
If Bitcoin can truly become a global digital reserve asset in the future, then breaking and stabilizing above the $100,000 mark is just a matter of time, and this may just be a new starting point for Bitcoin's value to take off. #BTC突破99K

Oh?

Dogecoin enthusiasts believe that Musk leaving the DOGE department to return to Tesla is a good thing, but in reality, the true bad news is being forced to distance himself from the White House.
The support and expansion of political power are the keys to Musk's continued endeavors in the future. He may be engaging in politics for several reasons: first, technology has hit a bottleneck, and he needs power to provide a buffer of resources; second, technological applications are hindered, and he needs policies to pave the way; third, he wants to replicate China's successful model.
Therefore, Musk's setbacks in politics are Tesla's setbacks. Being forced to step back from the core circle of Washington not only signifies Musk's political investments failing but, more importantly, that certain hidden crises may erupt. Thus, on one hand, Musk reluctantly reduces his investment in Dogecoin rather than completely leaving; on the other hand, he doubles down on praising Trump. Because losing in political games could likely lead to disastrous consequences.

Tonight, the Federal Reserve will hold a meeting, with results announced at 2 PM and Chairman Powell starting to speak at 2:30 PM. The result of the May meeting was a 100% probability of no rate cuts, while tonight's main focus is Powell's expectations for June—will there be a rate cut in June?
According to current interest rate market data, the probability of no rate cut in June is 70%, while the probability of a rate cut is 30%. Therefore, the likelihood of a negative outcome is relatively high, but not 100%. In this case, I believe that a 70% probability of a negative outcome is enough to consider exiting at the current high point, to first avoid risk and observe. #美联储FOMC会议

If I were to summarize Trump's 'Hundred Days of Reform,' I think the biggest beneficiary is actually himself. In Trump's 'Winning,' he is portrayed as the sole savior of MAGA supporters. In just three months, his family made hundreds of billions of dollars, equivalent to Musk cutting jobs, while the Trump family swooped in to collect. With some clever maneuvering, they could hide this money outside the law and never worry about food and clothing for generations, which is certainly possible. So it's better to spur oneself than to spur dad. Barron Trump hasn't done anything, yet the family just gained a few hundred billion US dollars out of nowhere. And those specialized talents who are particularly good at adding bricks to MAGA, like Vance and Hegseth, have become the 'chickens' that rise alongside the 'one who attains the Dao.' If you can profit while in office, go ahead and do so; if you have ambition and aspirations to compete for the political legacy of MAGA, then compete. Everyone in the White House has their own things to be busy with, after all.

Why did Bitcoin surge this morning?
1. The US-China trade is expected to reach a reconciliation, and the US and UK have also reached a trade agreement.
2. Several states in the US are expected to pass Bitcoin strategic reserve bills soon.
3. China announced a rate cut.
4. The listed company Thumzup applied for $500 million in financing to purchase more BTC.

When I was younger, I never understood a saying

"When the false is true, the true is also false"

Finally, I came to understand it through my experiences in the crypto world.

Whether it is moving averages, Fibonacci retracement percentages, or any other indicators that generate lines, none can solely represent support and resistance. This is because the market is unaware of these lines and does not care how you draw them. The market will not pay attention to what you think in your mind, how your trading system works, or how many indicators you have.
What truly plays the role of support and resistance is the volume. Volume represents the amount of capital flowing into and out of the market, and its size reflects the confidence of the market.

From the market perspective, Bitcoin's current rebound has failed to break through the previous high, and the trading volume continues to shrink, indicating a lack of upward momentum. Against the backdrop of increasing macroeconomic uncertainty, the market is reassessing its support logic. As the enthusiasm for the halving narrative wanes, the volatility transmission effects from traditional financial markets are beginning to emerge.
Bitcoin is currently in a critical support testing phase. If there are unexpected outcomes from the U.S. Treasury auction, or if the Federal Reserve releases unexpectedly hawkish signals, the price may retest the $93,000 range to seek support. However, the market has reached a consensus on 'high interest rates lasting longer,' and unless there are black swan events such as a surge in winning bid rates, the short-term risk of a sharp decline is relatively controllable. #加密市场回调

The mouth of the understanding king, the deceiving ghost

If you want to pursue a 10:1 profit-to-loss ratio, you must endure the potential large drawdowns;
If you want to achieve an 80% win rate, you must patiently wait for high-odds opportunities;
If you want to engage in trend trading, you must hold positions on a weekly basis.
These trading goals are reasonable in themselves, but in practice, many people often go against them, thinking and doing completely the opposite.

The recent rise in US stocks and Bitcoin is mainly driven by two factors.
First, macroeconomic sentiment has stabilized. After the latest GDP data was released, the market generally believes that the economic situation in the United States is not as bad as imagined, and at least there are no obvious signs of recession in the short term, which provides a certain confidence basis for the market.
Second, the performance of the earnings season has also played a crucial role. The earnings reports of tech giants like Meta and Microsoft exceeded expectations, greatly boosting market sentiment, and investors are increasingly confident, allocating more to stocks and crypto assets.
However, the current market liquidity is still insufficient. Until the Federal Reserve clearly indicates a rate cut, the market will continue to be dominated by economic data and policy expectations.